Division in Disarray as Chiefs Chase #1 Seed

Our Kansas City Chiefs won enough this year to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed with only two regular season games left. Meanwhile, the hapless Denver Broncos just fired their head coach midseason. Elsewhere in the AFC West, the similarly hapless Las Vegas Raiders just told their starting QB and two stand-out defenders to take a seat on the bench until the season's over. At least Chargers fans have a 9-6 record and the prodigious Justin Herbert to keep them hopeful. Neither the Broncos or Raiders have a head coach or a QB who has earned enough trust to give their fans a shadow of hope next season. That's gotta hurt.

It would also hurt if the Chiefs pooped the bed by losing to either one of these hopeless teams with the #1 seed still within reach. The Broncos have a -1 turnover differential on the season, which is better than KC's -5, and their defense still ranks seventh-best or higher in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Those are the only things Denver can claim to do better than Kansas City. Russell Wilson and the statistically horrible offense he leads hasn't stopped being horrible over the last three weeks, if you can believe that. Denver also has serious penalty problems, which was probably a factor in deciding to give their head coach the boot before the season was over. 

The Titans, who played their 16th game of the season Thursday, lead the league in yards lost to penalties with 917. Denver has lost 912 yards to penalty while playing one less game. The third-highest amount of yards lost to penalty is 76 yards fewer. That third-worst ranking belongs to the Raiders, by the way, who will face KC in the regular season's final week.

The Broncos need more than a different head coach if they want to beat the Chiefs while KC is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm predicting a routine 31-14 Chiefs victory that keeps their hopes for reclaiming the #1 seed in the conference alive. It feels great to be a citizen of Chiefs Kingdom, especially while witnessing two of our divisional "rivals" fail to deliver for their success-hungry fanbases.

Seattle's Struggles, KC's Concerns Collide On Cold Christmas Eve

I knew the Seattle Seahawks were 6-3 at one point, and I knew Geno Smith kept showing up next to names like Mahomes and Allen when I looked at the QB stats each week. This made me incorrectly assume Seattle was decent, if not pretty damn good, until looking into it further. The Seahawks have played 14 games so far this season, and somehow, only four of those were against teams who now have winning records. Half of them are the San Francisco 49ers. Only two of their seven victories came against teams who currently have winning records. They've lost four of their last five, including dropping games to the Bucs, Raiders and Panthers. 

Last week, Seattle suffered a predictable Thursday night defeat at the hands of the impressive San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs, meanwhile, must feel at least a little humbled after back-to-back weeks of sub-par performances against sub-par opponents. KC barely lost to the Bills and Bengals, but they barely avoided losing to the Broncos and Texans. This leaves their identity somewhat blurred at the moment, but the identity of their franchise QB should never be doubted.

Patrick Mahomes' average for passing yards in a game this season is now a full 34 yards higher than #2 in the league, Justin Herbert. Eight other quarterbacks are within 34 yards of Herbert's average. Maybe saying that Bears quarterback Justin Fields is half the quarterback Mahomes is sounds insulting, but it's actually statistically undeniable right now. It seems almost cruel to put these stats together in a sentence, but KC's QB has racked up more than twice as many passing yards per game and touchdown passes as Chicago's QB.

Comparing Fields and Mahomes feels unfair, but comparing KC's mega-star to Geno seems more reasonable. Unfortunately for Smith and the Seahawks, Geno hasn't compiled a QBR above 66 over the last five weeks. Mahomes hasn't compiled a QBR below that over the last eight weeks. That being said, Geno's season numbers still look solid, and he only plays on one side of the football. He deserves only a small portion of the blame for the Seahawks' recent problems.

Seattle scores the seventh-most points per game in the NFL, and their offense didn't exactly disappear over this recent rough patch. Over the last five games, the Seahawks average 22.8 points per game, which falls between the average points per game of the 12th- and 13th-best scoring offenses in football. Seattle's defense deserves scrutiny for the team's inability to win lately. On the season, the Seahawks give up the league's fourth-most points per game. Over the last five games, they've given up an average of 27 points per game. That's worse than any current season total of any team in the NFL. A team cannot expect to win against good opponents with a defense struggling as much as this.

The Chiefs may not seem as trustworthy as they did before stumbling through the last few weeks, but Seattle's recent struggles looked inarguably worse. I know that's a hard thing for Chiefs Kingdom to hear after we almost watched KC lose to the Texans, but a simple glance at the standings proves it. A desperate Seahawks team led by a legit veteran QB could make Chiefs fans sweat for a second this Saturday, but Seattle's inability to limit Mahomes should be their downfall. I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for KC. I know the weather will be nasty, but hey, feeling that cold sucks just as much for the defense as it does for the offense.

Oh, and here's my holiday gift to all of you: Isiah Pacheco averages 80 yards on the ground over his last six games, ever since becoming a bigger factor in the Chiefs offense due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's injury. Where I'm betting, his over/under for rushing yards this Christmas Eve is at 71. Enjoy your holiday, and more importantly, enjoy your sports and your gambling.

How Can KC Avoid Embarrassment In Houston?

Last week, the Chiefs stunk about as badly as they could stink while still winning. Today, they'd have to stink more than the worst team in football to lose, because they're facing the worst team in football. The one-win Houston Texans aren't good at very many things, so if this game turns out to be a close one, it will be because of Chiefs mistakes. Houston hung in there with the legit Dallas Cowboys last week, so KC must stay disciplined today in order to avoid a huge disappointment.

Houston deserves some credit for avoiding flags this year, though it clearly hasn't resulted in much success. Their 494 yards lost to penalties is second-lowest in the NFL. The Chiefs have lost the league's 14th-fewest yards to penalty. Badly timed penalties can make seemingly lopsided games into thrillers, but it was Patrick Mahomes' three interceptions last week that kept it close against the Broncos. The Texans picked off Dak Prescott twice last week, which kept things close in Dallas, too. 

KC's turnover differential has been disappointing all season long; only the Rams, Colts and Saints have worse differentials. There are only five teams with fewer takeaways than KC's 14. With all that being said, the Chiefs secondary are lining up against Davis Mills, who has thrown the second-most picks in the NFL in only 11 starts. Now is the time for KC's turnover stats to regress to the mean. 

KC has everything to lose today, but a win over the Texans won't have Chiefs Kingdom jazzed up or feeling like they  learned much about their team. Today's a day to just take care of business and get out of Texas with a victory. Chiefs win, 31-23, and stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. Buffalo still needs to beat Cincy and the pesky Patriots to end their regular season, so that bye-week in the playoffs could still belong to KC.

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.

I Re-Watched Last Year's AFC Championship So You Don't Have To

Last year's AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals broke every heart in Chiefs Kingdom. Selective memory made it genuinely difficult for me to recall specifics from that game, lest the thought of it hurt me all over again. I thought it would be wise to watch it one final time before this week's Bengals-Chiefs faceoff. The viewing experience gave me indigestion. 

It all started so well; KC's defense forces a three-and-out on the Bengals' first drive, then Mahomes immediately marches down the field for a first-drive touchdown. Cincy's offense begins moving the ball methodically on the next possession as the Chiefs fail to stop either Joe - Mixon or Burrow. The Bengals push deep into enemy territory, but KC's secondary disrupts two straight pass attempts to the end zone to force Cincinnati to kick a 32-yard field goal, resulting in a 7-3 score nearing the end of the first quarter.

KC responds with a 44-yard connection to Mecole Hardman on the first play of the following drive, which ends with a TD pass to Kelce. Cincy is quickly forced to punt on the next drive, leaving KC with a 14-3 lead and the ball with 10 minutes to play in the second half. Successful and aggressive play-calling immediately leads KC to yet another TD, this time to Hardman. It was five minutes 'til halftime and the Chiefs were up 18. I know what happened next, but how the hell did it happen? Just how?

Veteran running back Samaje Perine slips through some porous defense before the end of the first half for a quick Cincy touchdown. With a minute and a second, KC moves the ball swiftly with quick shots to Hill and Kelce. A pass interference call on Tyreek leaves the Chiefs with nine seconds and a 1st and Goal on the 1 yard-line. An incompletion leaves them five seconds. A completed pass for no gain to Tyreek leaves no time on the clock and a heavy sense of regret in the hearts of everyone in Chiefs Kingdom. Despite driving all the way to Cincinnati's 1 yard-line, the Chiefs failed to put more points on the board.

No problem though, right? The Chiefs get the ball to star the second half, and they're already up 11, so it's still all good. Then KC fails to get a single first down in this possession, and they punt. The Bengals offense responds to the roars of the Arrowhead faithful with impressive competence, until a Delay of Game penalty stifles the drive and forces a punt of their own.

The Chiefs start on their own 7 yard-line. They soon punt from the 25. Burrow, Chase and Mixon look frighteningly good as they march into Chiefs territory. KC's defense tightens up to limit Cincy to a field goal. KC gets the ball back with a lead and under five to play in the third. Everything should have been fine. 

On the second play of the possession, Mahomes feels the pressure of a blitz coming from his right, and he fires a quick pass to his left that bounces off the hands of another defender closing in on him. The ball bounces upward and lands in the hands of Bengals defensive tackle B.J Hill. This is the moment in my re-watching experience that I paused the video and went to grab some cookies. Not even the good kind, but the cheap ones, the off-brand chocolate chip cookies that only I seem to enjoy, even though they make my stomach ache. I only stoop to eating them when I have a particularly low sense of self worth. I returned to the video prepared to hurt myself in more ways than one. 

So now it's Bengals' ball with a little over two to play in the third. Before the fourth quarter begins, Cincy ties the game with a touchdown drive and two-point conversion. KC responds by going three-and-out.

 L'Jarius Sneed then brings the Arrowhead crowd to an unhealthy decibel level with an interception that quickly ends the Bengals' next possession. Despite all their stumbles, the Chiefs still had the ball in Mahomes' hands with a tie and under 14 left in regulation. The Chiefs responded to this opportunity by going three-and-out, as Mahomes is sacked on third down on consecutive possessions. 

A memorable third-down scramble from Burrow keeps the Bengals' next drive alive despite consistent pressure from KC. On consecutive third downs - both 3rd and 7 - Cincy's remarkable young QB uses his legs to move the chains. The bend-don't-break Chiefs defense gets a stop on Burrow's Bengals eventually, but not before Cincy gets in range for Evan McPherson to hit a 52-yard field goal that gives the Bengals the lead with only six minutes left in regulation.

Patrick Mahomes was made for moments like this. He nearly proves it with a long drive that gave KC a first down on Cincinnati's 4 yard-line. KC failed in ugly fashion to punch it in, but instead relied on Harrison Butker to tie the game with a 44-yarder as time expired. 

Overtime. KC wins the toss. Incomplete pass on first down. Another on second down that almost results in an interception. On third and 10, Mahomes goes deep downfield to Tyreek in double coverage. Bengals safetey Jessie Bates III gets a hand in between Hills' hands as Tyreek leaps up and reaches for the ball. Bates swats the pass away, and it lands in the hands of his fellow Bengals defender Von Bell. A Mahomes interception gives Burrow the ball in overtime.

The Chiefs defense cannot stop the Bengals on the ground or through the air. Burrow sets his team up for a 31 yarder. The kick is good. Mahomes winces as Burrow celebrates. Pleasantries are exchanged as Chiefs fans everywhere hold their reeling heads in their hands. Kansas City just scored three touchdowns on their first three drives of the game. The man with the best start to a career of anyone in the history of his position was one step away from the sport's ultimate stage, and he came up short. That hurt Chiefs Kingdom in a unique and unforgettable fashion.

Winning today would be little solace. This is only the 12th chapter of a 17-part story, and if that story goes well enough, KC gets to start a new and more important story when the playoffs begin. Only when the Bengals and Chiefs meet again when it's do-or-die will KC get a chance at true redemption. Consider this afternoon's game a tease of a bigger story yet to be told. With all that foreshadowing out of the way, we do have a slightly more technical topic to consider.

Burrow killed KC's defense in aforementioned crucial moments by using his legs on third down. I don't get paid the big bucks to know how to limit that, especially since Madden was enough to teach me that a QB spy strategy simply leaves a team one less defender to guard one of the Bengals' dangerous wide receivers. Whatever Steve Spagnuolo can think of to limit this will be utilized from now on, but it may be as simple as guys in the middle of KC's defense like Nick Bolton using their athleticism to close on Burrow ASAP on third down. Bolton's rapid improvement and the growth of Willie Gay should mean KC is better equipped at dealing with Burrow's scrambling skills this time.

I cannot predict a win for KC today. Until proven otherwise, Cincy has KC's number. Nobody knows how effective Ja'Marr Chase will be today after missing four games with a hairline fracture in his hip. Cincinnati is fresh off an exciting win over a solid Tennessee Titans team who also lost to the Bengals in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are coming off a yawn-inducing victory over a Los Angeles Rams team who had to start their relatively unknown third-string quarterback. I'm predicting another thriller but unfortunately another defeat at the hands of Joe Burrow. 30-27, Bengals. Don't forget, though; the real test comes in January.

Back-Up Bryce Brings Banged-Up Rams to KC

Could the Los Angeles Rams really come into Arrowhead with a back-up QB and defeat the Super Bowl-caliber Chiefs today? No. Article over. See you next week. Okay no, there are intriguing aspects of this match-up to look over first. Concussion issues for the Rams' starting QB clearly poses a problem for L.A, but their defense has disappointed them this year, too.

The Rams defense allows the 10th-fewest yards per game this season, but they allow the 17th-lowest points per game. Aaron Donald only has five sacks. Bobby Wagner leads his team with 84 tackles, which is 16th league-wide. Conversely, only five guys in the league have more total tackles than KC's Nick Bolton. Only four have more sacks than Chris Jones. The Chiefs allow more passing and rushing yards per game than the Rams, but KC only allows 0.6 more points per game to their opponents.

The Chiefs enter today's game with a decisive advantage, and the quarterback situation for these banged-up Rams makes matters worse. Bryce Perkins is expected to start today in place of an injured Matthew Stafford. He's a dual-threat, athletic guy who went undrafted in 2020. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He's top-three in average yards per throw, QBR and Passer Rating. He's first in yards, yards per game and touchdowns. If the season ended today, only Mahomes and Tua Tagavailoa would likely receive #1 votes for MVP.

KC will end their day as the only AFC team with nine wins if they simply avoid beating themselves. If the Rams do anything well, it's avoiding penalties. L.A has the fewest flags thrown against them and the third-fewest yards lost to penalties in the NFL. I'm predicting a clean game and a relatively comfy 31-16 victory for KC.

Can Desperate Chargers Challenge Champs of Their Division?

I started the season thinking the Los Angeles Chargers would supplant our Kansas City Chiefs as the champs of the AFC West. That take looks pretty damn stale already, thanks in part to the Chargers' numerous injury concerns and growing pains. Justin Herbert and his crew still have Miami, Tennessee and the other L.A team on their schedule, so these 5-4 Chargers need to win tonight to maintain realistic playoff aspirations.

An inconsistent Chargers offense could get a boost (I'm avoiding electricity puns here on purpose) from two returning receivers who already have great chemistry with the team's struggling QB. According to Adam Schefter, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are expected to play tonight. That could be huge for Herbert, whose recent play has been undeniably disappointing. As NFL.com reported, Herbert has four straight games with a sub-90 Passer Rating and yards per attempt under six. A guy who I expected to be an MVP candidate this year now has a Passer Rating that ranks 17th among all QBs with more than one start this season, between the ratings of Andy Dalton and Jacoby Brissett. Conversely, Mahomes has dominated with his new troop of offensive weapons, and the other guys performing on his level can be counted on about half of one hand.

Honestly, the only QB consistently on Pat's level this year is, wait for it, Tua freakin' Tagavailoa. I guess Tua has a certain former Chief to thank for that, but that's a topic for another time.

The large cast of characters creating football's most unstoppable offense just grew larger with the Chiefs' acquisition and subsequent effective use of Kadarius Toney. Mahomes targeted Toney five times for four receptions and 57 yards against Jacksonville last week. Toney's impact should increase all-the-more this week because of Mecole Hardman's placement on the injured reserve list. Clearly, the timing of acquiring Toney and losing Mecole was impeccable. This should keep the NFL's #1 passing and scoring offense firing on all cylinders.

The Chiefs can and will end the Chargers' hopes at a playoff run tonight. The Chargers should put up a serious fight at home, especially considering the return of their receiving core. A desperate, motivated Justin Herbert could burn KC's imperfect secondary a few times, so I'm predicting a 34-31 shootout victory for Kansas City.

Can Trap-Game Trevor Terrorize KC? Probably Not.

The Kansas City Chiefs' winning ways often leaves Chiefs Kingdom drunk on the power of success, but losing to the Colts earlier this year served as a sobering reminder of the old "any given Sunday" adage. It's hard for a Chiefs fan not to wince when they remember that their guys lost to a football team that fired their head coach mid-season and replaced him with a high school coach. Another reminder of KC's fallibility came last week when they barely survived at Arrowhead against the Tennessee Titans, who were led by a rookie QB that is noticeably not ready for a starting role. 

Another young quarterback brings his team to Kansas City today, and many say he has all the makings of a future MVP. For now, Jacksonville Jaguars centerpiece Trevor Lawrence is only middle-of-the-pack. Lawrence ranks 17th and 19th in Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating, respectively this year. His six interceptions matches Mahomes, but while Mahomes has thrown a league-leading 21 touchdown passes, Trevor has only 11.

The help of a legit run-game makes the Jags' offense formidable nonetheless. Only four guys in the league have more rushing yards than Travis Etienne Jr. right now. With him leading the way, Jacksonville ranks seventh league-wide in rushing yards per game. As we've mentioned here before though, KC's rushing defense isn't the punchline it used to be. The Chiefs allow the league's fifth-fewest rushing yards per game to their opponents. This has a lot to do with Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs offense to the highest points-per-game average in football, since Kansas City's opponents must often pass at a particularly high rate in hopes of catching up.

The Jags look like a remarkably average team on paper, and the Chiefs need wins against every average team left on their schedule in order to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. I don't think Trap-Game Trevor overcomes the odds today, but I like the nickname because I'm pathetically in love with my own alliteration. I'm predicting a 31-17 win for KC.

KC's Improved Rushing Defense Faces Titanic Test

Two division-leading perennial playoff teams with 5-2 records face off tonight, and the spread is 12.5. That seems weird, but the Kansas City Chiefs' recent past looks a bit different than that of the visiting Tennessee Titans.

The Titans lost their first two games against the Giants and Bills, but rebounded to win five straight against the Raiders, Colts, Commanders, the Colts again and Houston. None of those losing teams are expected to be great this year, but Tennessee can only play the teams on their schedule. Also, to be totally fair, Indy beat KC, and Tennessee overcame the mighty Colts twice. Predicting Tennessee's effectiveness against a legit team at this point of the year could be difficult, because they haven't faced anyone good since the second game of the season. What's similarly tough to predict is the Titans' effectiveness at the quarterback position today, since normal starter Ryan Tannehill is still a game-time decision to play, and nobody yet knows the true potential of the young protégé Malik Willis.

Having Tannehill under center would at least give Tennessee the best chances of winning the turnover battle. Only the Bucs, Eagles and Giants have thrown fewer picks than Tennessee this season. Aside from this, Tannehill provides no special threat to KC's defense. Tannehill's passing yards per game ranks sixth-lowest among QBs with at least five games played this year. That actually isn't abysmal considering that Tennessee's offense has the NFL's third-lowest passing play percentage. Clearly, that offense revolves around Derrick Henry.

Nobody in football has more carries, and nobody in football looked more dominant last week, when Henry ran for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Only injuries can stop Henry from being the focal point of Tennessee's offense. KC's rushing defense actually looks solid this season, after what felt like decades of struggling in that regard. The Chiefs are holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry, which is seventh league-wide, and 92 rushing yards per game, which ranks third.

If KC finally has the defense capable of limiting top-shelf rushing talent like Henry, it's hard not to predict victory for the Chiefs. 12.5 is a bit steep, though. I'll say the Chiefs win 30-21 and maintain somewhat realistic hope of eventually reclaiming the AFC's #1 seed. 

San Fran's Elite D Could Concern KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs lost a bummer of a home game last Sunday to a tough playoff contender with a great defense. This week, they're heading west to face a tough playoff contender with a great defense. The biggest difference between the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers should be the difference between defeat for KC last week and victory today.

Last Sunday's 24-20 Bills win featured the two best quarterbacks in football. This week's game will feature one of those two and also Jimmy Garoppolo. That Niners defense is Super Bowl-worthy, but that offense has been outscored by Chicago, Denver and Atlanta. Christian McCaffrey could greatly improve things in time, but a guy who joined the team this Thursday can only be expected to do so much. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, San Fran's elite defense gives them a chance to win despite limited success from the offense.

This Niners defense allows the NFL's second-fewest points and fewest yards per game. Only the Dallas Cowboys sack the opposing QB at a higher rate. San Francisco also allows the ninth-lowest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL. The one thing Buffalo does way better than San Fran on defense, however, is forcing turnovers; the Bills are second league-wide in total takeaways while only 10 teams have fewer takeaways than San Francisco.

I don't expect the Chiefs defense to look elite yet, but they held the second-highest scoring team in football (KC is still first) to 24 last week, which is 5.3 points lower than Buffalo's season average. The Chiefs accomplished this without Trent McDuffie or Willie Gay, and Gay returns to action this afternoon. Allen's 117.6 Passer Rating against KC last week is concerning, but practically nobody thinks Jimmy G is on Allen's level. Garoppolo's completion percentage ranks 17th among QBs with at least three starts this season. His Passer Rating is a respectable 8th-best, but his QBR is the league's 10th-worst.

San Fran leans heavily on their successful, multi-faceted rushing attack - only seven teams in the NFL have a lower passing percentage - but Chiefs Kingdom knows better than any fanbase just how valuable an elite QB can be when the game is on the line. Let's call last week the exception to the rule. Patrick threw some picks, and I wrote an article about how the Chiefs were about to score a bunch against the Bills - we all had a bad week. Now is the time for KC to get back on track and get a tough win over tough competition. I'll predict a gritty 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Expect Plenty of Points When Chiefs Face Buffalo

Last Monday did not go according to plan for our Kansas City Chiefs, but they ended that night victorious. After KC looked unstoppable against Brady's Bucs in Week 4, Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders almost stunned the Chiefs at the last second. Speaking of stunning a team at the last second, the Bills are in town. The top two teams in the AFC, and perhaps the NFL, face off today for the first time since their insane playoff thriller. We never know how these meetings with the Buffalo Bills will go, but we can safely predict a bunch of points on the scoreboard.

Both the Chiefs and Bills have scored over 30 in three out of five weeks, which is more impressive than usual considering the lack of scoring throughout the rest of the league. 23.6 points per game gets a team into the top ten this year, whereas last year it took 26.5 points. It's hard to do better than Josh Allen's 424 passing yards and four touchdowns last week. The struggling KC secondary that got exposed by Davante Adams on Monday must now face a potentially more potent threat in Allen and Stefon Diggs. Opponents are compiling a 105.5 Passer Rating against the Chiefs' defense, which puts them at 28th in that statistic, while Buffalo is the league's best in this regard, holding opponents to a 67.8 Passer Rating.

Also, the Bills' secondary has 8 picks, and the Chiefs have just one. That seems like plenty of evidence to make me pick the Bills today, but I'm not doing it. There's just something about the Chiefs playing a bad game, win or lose, that makes them better in the following week. We can safely say KC plays up and down to their competition, so we should see them at their best again today. Despite Buffalo looking like legit Super Bowl contenders, and possibly frontrunners, I'm predicting that the Chiefs win another thriller, 38-34, and take the clear lead in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed.

Can KC Keep Crushing Revamped Raiders?

Each passing year makes me feel two years older and twice as confident that early October is the best chunk of time on the calendar. As playoff baseball and spooky season both begin, as the countless different shades of gold and red emerge from the trees around us, so, too, do the true identities of teams in the NFL. Our Kansas City Chiefs just racked up 41 points on one of football's greatest defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had allowed 27 total points in the three games prior to facing KC. The Chiefs scored more than that in the first half. How will Mahomes' offense fare tonight when they face a struggling Las Vegas Raiders defense?

Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. Only the Arizona Cardinals have fewer sacks per game. If they hope to keep this game close, the Raiders will need to succeed on third down. Their opponents' 35.42% conversion rate on third down is ranked a respectable 13th league-wide - three slots higher than KC's defense. The Chiefs' offense, on the other hand, converts slightly over 51% of its third down conversion attempts. Only the Buffalo Bills are more successful at moving the chains on third down.

The Raiders' offense just played their best game of the season so far, and more of that success might make tonight's game dramatic. Davante Adams caught nine passes from his former college QB Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns while also catching five passes. It's no surprise that Vegas' first win of the year came in the first game in which these guys both looked great.

Vegas may be improving, but the Chiefs already look like the best team in football. Only Josh Allen's Bills can argue that fact at this point. I think the Raiders will have every reason to come into this game motivated and ready to win. That means Vegas could keep this one close. If they do, history indicates that KC is still destined for victory and the Raiders are about to screw everything up for themselves. Such is the true identity of each team. With that in mind, I'm predicting a 31-24 victory for KC tonight.

Can KC Bounce Back With Win Over Brady's Bucs?

The teams meeting in this week's Sunday night game have quite a lot in common. Both teams are coming off disappointing defeats. Both teams are still Super Bowl contenders. Both teams started this season in shaky fashion. Both team's QB's will end their career as one of the game's all-time greats. Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes gets a ton of media attention, and for good reason, but Tom's Tampa Bay Buccanneers offense looks inefficient so far.

Tampa's offense ranks 24th in scoring and 27th in yardage. However, practically every Bucs receiver has struggled with injuries this season. Today, despite being listed as questionable, key Tampa wideouts Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones are all expected to play. This unit's cohesion will decide if the Bucs can finish a game with more than 20 points for the first time this season.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, already looks Lombardi-ready. No team in football allowed fewer points per game through three weeks, and only three teams allow lower total yardage. I guess averaging 17 points a game works just fine when the defense allows just 9 a game. While KC's defense has succeeded in pressuring opposing QB's, Tampa is one of only four teams who have more sacks than KC's 10. Whichever team can keep their superstar quarterback most comfortable will win tonight's game. Brady has Patrick's number throughout his career, and unless both these teams go on to reach the Big Game, this will be Mahomes' final chance for some payback.

This one should be close, and it could be a classic. Tampa's defense is legit, but their secondary still has flaws that Mahomes can exploit. I'm predicting a bounceback 24-21 victory for KC.

Can Colts Cool KC Down?

The AFC West doesn't quite look like the juggernaut many experts anticipated, but I'm still thrilled to see our Kansas City Chiefs alone on top of the division. Beating the Los Angeles Chargers was no easy task. Patrick Mahomes looked mortal multiple times when potential picks were bobbled and dropped by the frustrated Chargers secondary. Rookie seventh-rounder Jaylen Watson turned a probably touchdown for LA into a memorable touchdown for KC with a 99-yard pick-six. Patrick's haters can hate all they want, but the game ended with both QB's posting a Passer Rating over 100 and Mahomes earning more than five points than Justin Herbert in this measurement. Today, we'll see the #1 Passer Rating in football against the #31 Passer Rating.

Call it a trap game if you want, but there should be little hope for the 0-1-1 Indianapolis Colts today. They have failed to achieve victory over two teams that Vegas oddsmakers expect to win 11 games combined this season. Indy's defense consistently fails to apply pressure, and it's making success on either side of the ball difficult for them. Only five teams in the NFL have fewer sacks through two weeks, and only three teams allow a better Passer Rating to opposing QB's.

Not even the production of last season's rushing leader should be enough to keep the Chiefs from victory. Jonathan Taylor's 161 rushing yards in Week 1 weren't enough to help the Colts win against the Houston Texans. That's not to say the Chiefs will allow that kind of performance today, even with the noteworthy loss of Willie Gay to suspension. KC faced another top-shelf running back last week when they hosted LA, and Austin Ekeler averaged only 2.8 yards on the ground over 14 carries. There's no other individual on Indy's roster that forces opposing coaching staffs to alter their battle plans.

The Chiefs don't look perfect, but they look like a real Super Bowl contender. The Colts don't look talentless, but they look like a real contender to choose first in next year's draft. I'm taking the Chiefs, 34-17. 

KC Cannot Expect to Wreck Chargers Like They Wrecked Arizona

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs started their seasons in very different ways this year. After a slow start, L.A's offense heated up and Justin Herbert spread the ball around effectively against the Las Vegas Raiders. Six different Chargers caught at least three passes in Week 1's 24-19 victory over the new Raiders regime. It wasn't all roses for the Chargers, though. Austin Ekeler averaged under 2.6 yards per carry, which made controlling the clock difficult. L.A's defense also allowed a variety of big plays to Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs and especially Davante Adams, which kept Vegas in a game that should've been decided by far more than a single possession.

Derek Carr had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to score a TD to take the lead, despite throwing three picks and fumbling twice. I expect Herbert's crew to put up more than 24 on a team when the opposing QB compiles a 26.9 QBR. I'd be willing to bet my house that Patrick Mahomes will put up slightly better numbers than this, but I'm only renting. Mahomes didn't throw any picks while racking up 360 passing yards and five TD passes. Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon all averaged at least five yards per carry with at least four carries each. Pacheco, the 7th-round draft pick rookie, led the way with 12 carries for 62 yards on the ground. 

I ultimately think KC loses this game tonight, but I also don't think that sting will linger for too long. I'm predicting the Chiefs as the 2022 Super Bowl winners, and I promise, that was my plan before the dominant 44-21 win in Arizona. Few teams are as complete as KC, and none have the same level of supreme talent that has achieved victory in big moments. With that being said, the Chiefs could easily prove me wrong tonight by wrecking the Chargers, who honestly looked more flawed than I expected in Week 1. I have to balance my optimism for now, though, and this newly rebuilt Chiefs offense isn't going to destroy all teams like they destroyed Arizona last week.

I'm predicting a great game and a Chargers victory tonight, mainly because I have faith in them to look more like the Super Bowl contender most fans expect to see. I also think the Chiefs are the better team when it matters most, and I'd be thrilled to see these teams face off three times this season. This time around, I'm predicting a 30-27 Chargers victory.

Quick Predictions for Every '22 Regular Season Chiefs Game

Are you fired up yet, KC? Our Kansas City Chiefs begin their regular season today against Kyler Murray's Arizona Cardinals. To commemorate the beginning of meaningful football in Chiefs Kingdom, I'm looking through KC's schedule and making a quick prediction for each game. 

KC's first game against the Cards could have been a significant test for KC with DeAndre Hopkins on the field. Without his play-making ability, I'm giving the clear edge to the Chiefs here. Reid/Mahomes beats Kingsbury/Murray until proven otherwise, even though Kingsbury/Murray is really fun to say. Predicted Record: 1-0.

Game #2 is a toss-up at Arrowhead Stadium against the Los Angeles Chargers. Let's balance some of my upcoming optimism by predicting an L for the Chiefs here. The Chargers have the talent, if not the experience, of a Super Bowl contender. It could be Justin Herbert's time to step up and get to that next level of playoff success, but Mahomes and Burrow still stand in his way. Predicted Record: 1-1.

The Indianapolis Colts shouldn't be favored by anyone in Week 3, despite still having Wild Card potential this season. Indy could even challenge the steady Tennessee Titans for that division title, but they're one of many teams who won't quite stack up with KC this year. Predicted Record: 2-1.

Week 4 takes the Chiefs to Tampa for a second straight road game. KC could lose this one, but I'll give them the edge over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that's lost some momentum and talent since their Super Bowl LV victory. We'll cover this topic exhaustively when the time comes. Predicted Record: 3-1.

The Las Vegas Raiders then return to KC to lose to Mahomes for the eighth time in his ninth game facing that franchise. This will be the Raiders' fifth game under new head coach Josh McDaniels and stud wide-out Davante Adams. Real offensive cohesion will presumably take longer than that. Predicted Record: 4-1.

The Buffalo Bills travel to Arrowhead for a game where they'll seemingly have the edge. KC snuck by last time when they still had Tyreek Hill, and Buffalo could now be the league's best team on paper. It's hard to bet against the Bills this week...or this whole dang season. Predicted Record: 4-2.

The San Francisco 49ers should present a unique challenge with a strong coaching staff, but I'm giving KC the edge in this one. That means I'm predicting KC to win two rematches of recent Super Bowls within four weeks. Weird. Predicted Record: 5-2.

The Chiefs follow up their bye week with a trip to Nashville for an intriguing test of the new-look defensive line, which should be somewhat galvanized at this point. Any significant success in limiting Tennessee Titans star RB Derrick Henry should lead to a Chiefs victory. Predicted Record: 6-2.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may improve throughout this season, but not enough to upset the Chiefs in Week 10. Back-to-back home games against beatable opponents represents a strange must-win pair of games for KC when they have such a brutal schedule before and after this short stretch. Predicted Record: 7-2.

Chiefs split the season series with the Chargers by winning this Week 11 game in LA. This is my least-confident prediction. I wouldn't be shocked if KC swept the Chargers, or if it happened the other way around. Predicted Record: 8-2.

The Los Angeles Rams don't represent an automatic L for KC, but the reigning champs are one of very few teams who could arrive in Arrowhead late in the season as the betting favorite. Give them the win here, but could KC get revenge in The Big Game? Crazier things have happened. Predicted Record: 8-3.

Speaking of revenge, I want so badly to pick KC to win on the Cincinnati Bengals' home turf in Week 13. Truth is, Burrow's Bengals have the Chiefs' number until proven otherwise. This kinda reminds me of what I typically say about Mahomes. That's how the benefit of the doubt works when it's earnestly earned. Predicted Record: 8-4.

The tradition of over-panicking in Chiefs Kingdom will take place later than usual this time around, specifically when KC loses in Denver in Week 14. This hypothetical path puts the Chiefs dangerously close to missing out on the playoffs entirely, despite hypothetical wins over strong competition like the Bucs and Chargers. All these possible paths indicate that even reaching the playoffs is no given for KC this season. Predicted Record: 8-5.

Wins against Houston and Seattle will put an end to some fear in the fanbase, just in time for an exciting face-off with the Broncos at Arrowhead. Both the Texans and Seahawks are expected to stink, so they're the duo that earns the least analysis time from me or probably anyone else. Predicted Record: 10-5.

Vegas oddsmakers predict the Wilson/Hackett version of the Broncos to win 10-11 games this season. Am I the only person wondering about this? I want to give Denver the win, for balance or for being devil's advocate or for simply believing the experts, but my gut says it won't happen. The Chiefs blank the Donkeys this year to stomp on their fans' hopes and reach an impressive 11-win record with one regular season game left. Predicted Record: 11-5.

Week 18 will could decide some critical playoff seeding for KC, while perhaps being the last chance for the Raiders to earn a Wild Card. This tightly contested game should be won, as it usually is, by the superior duo of QB and head coach. That duo will belong to Kansas City for at least two more presidential elections. Predicted Record: 12-5.

That's a high bar to set for what we expect this season, yet I predict that this still leaves KC without a divisional title. I think the Chargers are about to look excellent. A variety of factors could prove me wrong, including injuries, turnover concerns and major flaws on special teams. If all goes well for Herbert's crew, however, I expect them to win around 13 games and the AFC West crown.

I'll review the Cards game, preview the Chargers game and give my Chiefs-related playoff predictions next week. Check in then for plenty more Chiefs Kingdom content.

Can KC's AFC Supremacy Continue?

The losers of the next Chiefs game we watch will end their season devastated, regardless of how much they achieved and contrary to what they may tell the media. The winners worry only about their warm-weather packing plans, as the calm California climate of Inglewood's SoFi Stadium awaits them in two short weeks. One more Kansas City Chiefs victory is all it takes to earn them a spot in the Super Bowl. Only Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals stand in Kansas City's way. This game's got all the makings of yet another classic this afternoon, but reaching the levels of drama from last week's game would be damn difficult.

KC cannot keep giving up 36 points per playoff game, but Chiefs Kingdom is ecstatic after Kansas City outdueled the Buffalo Bills last week. Kansas City's defense focused on limiting the impact of their opponents' best wide receiver. Consequently, Stefon Diggs only caught three passes for seven yards. Implementing that same strategy today seems logical when we look back at the last time these teams faced off. Ja'Marr Chase destroyed KC's defense for over 250 receiving yards and three touchdowns only four weeks ago. Limiting the chances of that happening again was undoubtedly on Steve Spagnuolo's mind a lot this week.

Buffalo's Gabriel Davis became a legend by racking up four touchdown catches and over 200 yards receiving last Sunday, but all that still didn't stop the Chiefs from getting the job done. I believe KC can and will limit Chase, even if it means someone else goes crazy in his stead. Whether that's Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd or some dark-horse like Gabriel Davis is irrelevant as long as key Chiefs on offense continue to improve their already-impressive playoff resumes. 

Future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce caught 8 for 96 and a game-winning score last week. That was the first playoff game he didn't finish with over 100 receiving yards since the Chiefs faced Tampa in the Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill has more ups and downs relative to the remarkably consistent Kelce, but Hill still averages over 110 receiving yards over his last six playoff games. The most obvious piece to the playoff success puzzle for this Chiefs offense is its legendary signal-caller.

Patrick Mahomes now has an 8-2 playoff record in which he completes over 66% of his passes with a 25/5 touchdown/interception rate. Mahomes has avoided throwing a pick in seven of his ten playoff appearances. Joe Shiesty looks legit in this exciting start to his playoff career, but nobody short of Joe Montana would make Mahomes the underdog in this moment. I don't even believe that Joe could outduel Mahomes right now.

That being said, Burrow gives the Bengals a puncher's chance with big-play potential similar to what the Kingdom regularly witnesses in Kansas City. Cincy ranks fifth league-wide in pass plays of 20+ yards, and Mahomes' offense is sixth. Joe is tied for second place with his 15 passes of 40+ yards, and Patrick is again right there with him at third place with 11. Not everything about their style of play is so similar, however.

Burrow led the league in taking sacks in the regular season. He took 51, while Mahomes was only sacked 28 times. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen were sacked fewer times while still playing in all 17 regular season games. Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the rest of KC's defense should have a better chance bothering Burrow than the Bengals have of bringing down Mahomes. KC's defense ranks 8th or higher in QB hurries per dropback, pressures per dropback and knockdowns per pass attempt.

The defense doesn't need to completely shut down this recently dominant Bengals offense to give the Chiefs a chance today. After all, giving up 36 points apparently works out just fine as long as they leave about 13 seconds on the clock. If KC can hit pay-dirt with more frequency than Burrow's Bengals today, the Chiefs will once again claim the trophy that bears their maker's name. I'm predicting a thrilling 37-31 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC Continue Playoff Push by Beating Buffalo?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off tonight to decide who faces Cincy in next week's AFC Championship game. Patrick Mahomes passed for over 404 yards and five touchdowns, and he still didn't outperform Josh Allen. Buffalo's signal caller started the game with seven straight touchdowns against the greatest football coach ever, as Allen and the Bills dismantled Bill Belichick's New England Patriots 47-17. 

Both QBs led prolific passing offenses that showed flaws at times before looking truly elite down the stretch. By the end of the regular season, both teams posted top-five yards per game and points per game. Despite some ups and downs in the regular season, Allen still finished with a 60.8 QBR that ranks sixth league-wide, just a spot behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen and the Bills dominated the Chiefs in Week 5 of the regular season, and they just dominated their opponents on Wild Card Weekend, but the Chiefs are still favored by one or one and a half at home tonight. The huge difference between what the Chiefs were in October and what they have now become is the key reason why KC's last meeting with the Bills had little influence on today's spread.

That first meeting in Week 5 was weird. Both QBs led their teams in rushing yards. No Bill caught more than three passes, but four different Bills finished the day with over 50 receiving yards. Buffalo's defense game-plan limited the production of future Hall of Famers on KC's offense so successfully that Mecole Hardman led the Chiefs in receiving yards and catches that day. Stefon Diggs only caught two passes, but he still racked up 69 receiving yards.

Buffalo beat the Chiefs by 18 that day, and talking head Stephen A. Smith described KC's defense as "trash" and "an atrocity". At that point in the season, he wasn't wrong. Chris Jones was still experimenting with a new position. Melvin Ingram was still a disgruntled Pittsburgh Steeler. I already detailed the changes that made the Chiefs championship contenders again, but it's worth remembering just how hapless things felt back in October. 

I predicted that the Chiefs would lose to the Bills in that first meeting. Much has changed since then. For today, I have to give the edge, as I always do, to the coach and quarterback tandem with proven playoff success. Josh Allen looked flawless last week, but that's his only truly great outing in the playoffs. Both offenses should come down from the stratosphere to be at least slightly less incredible than they were last week. This is especially true for KC, as the Bills defense held opponents to the lowest total yards, passing yards and total points per game this season. Despite this, I'm going with my guy Mahomes to provide a little magic and keep the good times rolling in Kansas City. This matchup has Game of the Year vibes, and I think the Chiefs will survive it, 34-31.

Could Pittsburgh Present Playoff Perils to KC?

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead tonight. The Kansas City Chiefs are huge favorites this time around as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. What could give the 14-point underdogs a chance against the Chiefs in this lopsided, do-or-die battle?

Football fans everywhere likely agree that the Steelers won't have the advantage at QB tonight. In fact, a player who will one day become another one of Pittsburgh's representatives in Canton may be the player holding the Steelers back the most right now.

Pittsburgh struggled their way through an easy schedule and snuck into the playoffs as Ben Roethlisberger finished the regular season with an Adjusted QBR of 35.8. That ranks 25th among all qualified players, putting Big Ben behind guys like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. The only player to play more than 14 games and finish with a lower QBR was rookie Jaguar Trevor Lawrence. Big Ben had the full support of one of the most respected teams in football history, and Trevor Lawrence is a Jacksonville Jaguar. 

Prior to Pittsburgh's overtime victory over the Ravens last week, Roethlisberger compiled QBR's no better than 14.0 in three consecutive games. What's actually impressive is the fact that the Steelers only lost one of those three games - the one in which they faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was the only team to score more than 14 points against Pittsburgh during that stretch. It's probably no coincidence that the Chiefs won while keeping T.J. Watt sack-less in that game, as opposed to him racking up four sacks against Cleveland and one and a half sacks against Tennessee. 

Watt led the league in sacks, tying the all-time record of 22.5. Thankfully for worrisome fans belonging to Chiefs Kingdom, KC's offensive line finished third league-wide in percentage of sacks allowed per play, behind only the Bills and Bucs. The line that Kansas City built from scratch this off-season finished its first year ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' power rankings. If health permits, the Chiefs should prove with this ensuing playoff run that worrying about the offensive line represents only residue of past failures.

Speaking of past failures, turning the ball over is another way KC could turn this opportunity into another memorable disaster like we witnessed in the pre-Mahomes regimes. KC is 11th in the NFL in turnover differential at +4, and Pittsburgh is tied at 13th with +2. This ranking for the Chiefs felt like a disappointment when I saw that stat, especially when I also saw that KC's 29 takeaways ties them for fifth-best in the league. It's also worth noting that the top-ten list for total takeaways is comprised of eight playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. It certainly seems like a high volume of takeaways takes teams to the playoffs or gets them damn close.

Kansas City's problem with their turnover differential came from their surprisingly high volume of giveaways; 25 ties them with the Tennessee Titans for the ninth-most in the NFL. No team with more giveaways reached the playoffs, and each team on the top-five list for most giveaways this season lost at least 11 games. Pittsburgh's 22 takeaways this season ties them at 14th in the league, meaning that the Chiefs will face an opponent whose ability to take the ball away is essentially league-average. The Chiefs have played five teams with higher takeaway totals this season - the Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Giants and Titans - and Kansas City won three of those five games.

The gulf between the prior success rates of the teams facing off today makes it impossible for me to give the Steelers any hope. I'm predicting a comfortable 31-17 victory for the Chiefs. The "nothing to lose" mentality only gets a team so far when they run into an opponent playing objectively better football.

Could Denver's Defense Doom Chiefs' Chance to Reclaim #1 Seed?

Broncos fans enjoyed flashes of hope last November when Denver beat the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers. Aside from these wins, Denver has only claimed victory over teams who currently have losing records. The Kansas City Chiefs need the victory today to put pressure on the Tennessee Titans, who would hand the #1 seed back to the Chiefs if KC handles their business today and Tennessee is toppled by the mighty Houston Texans tomorrow. It should surprise no one to see oddsmakers predicting both games to be decided by ten or more points.

Perhaps the biggest potential for surprise in either game, with respect to Dangerous Davis Mills in Houston, comes from the Denver defense. The Broncos ranks among the league's top ten in most major defensive statistics, making them a good test for a Chiefs offense that experienced a shaky middle of the season. Despite failing to score more than 20 in any game from Week 5 to Week 9, the Chiefs currently sit in the top four league-wide in total yards, passing yards and points per game. Scoring 31 or more in their last four games made that possible. 31 points, unfortunately, wasn't enough to make achieving victory possible in Cincy last week.

Rookie legend-in-the-making Ja'Marr Chase had the greatest regular season performance in wide receiver history for the Cincinnati Bengals last week. All that production was just enough to sneak past Kansas City with a field goal as time expired. Unless some Bronco can also go off for 266 receiving yards, I like the Chiefs' odds this afternoon. The two-digit spread for this game makes sense when you compare the aforementioned success of Kansas City's offense with the fact that Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in their last three games. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for the Chiefs.

Can KC's Defense Bother Burrow's Bengals?

It's tough to tell what will limit Joe Burrow any given week. He's won and lost against teams with varying pressure rates, yards allowed per game and any other relevant stat I could think to Google. Burrow lost by three to both Aaron Rodger's Green Bay Packers and Mike White's New York Jets. The Cincinnati Bengals' young signal-caller ranks 6th league-wide in passing yards while tying for the league lead in interceptions, which results in a 52.7 QBR that ranks 13th. His upside is tremendous, but Joe's still justifiably unpredictable.

What's more predictable is the continued success of the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Nobody but the Los Angeles Chargers' objectively strong offense has mustered more than two touchdowns in a game against KC since the first day of November. Only four teams in football hold opponents to fewer points per game than the Chiefs. Cincinnati's passing offense will pose a serious threat today. The Bengals rank 8th overall in passing yards per game and seventh in points per game. However, KC overcame a similarly potent opponent very recently when they outscored Justin Herbert's Chargers just two weeks ago. Herbert's offense ranks fourth in passing yards and total yards per game this year, and the Chargers score 0.1 points per game fewer than Burrow's Bengals.

The spotlight once again shines brightly on Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who once again deserves his roses for the incredible improvement shown by this defense. This improvement, when paired with a quarterback-coach tandem that's destined for the Hall of Fame, will give the Chiefs the advantage today. I predict an exciting 31-27 victory for Kansas City.