Friday, December 9, 2022

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.

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