Buffalo's Key Weakness Sets Stage for Mahomes Magic

Only the Buffalo Bills stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and consecutive Super Bowl appearances. Rarely has staring at a grid of numbers induced such goosebumps as when I look through stats for a Chiefs playoff game, as if that finally makes it all real. The historically unprecedented nature of this era in Chiefs history amplifies the intensity of every second of football we witness. So, how can Kansas City overcome Buffalo and keep the good times rolling?

Patrick Mahomes, by virtue of being phenomenally good at his job, is the story in Kansas City sports most of the time. Today will be no different, not only because of his greatness, but because of the Bills' recent history of struggling against top-shelf quarterback talent. Buffalo faced three QB's with a top-ten Passer Rating in the regular season. They lost to Ryan Tannehill's Titans in Week 5, then to Patrick's Chiefs in Week 6. The Bills later went on to win a 44-34 shootout with the Russel Wilson-led Seahawks in Week 9. To be fair, Buffalo also faced the guy with the league's 11th-best Passer Rating last week, when Lamar Jackson only put three points on the board for the Baltimore Ravens. 

Buffalo typically excels at limiting the success of the opposition's quarterback. They looked impressive against Baltimore last week, who seemed unstoppable in the weeks leading up to their early playoff exit. The Bills also succeeded with their blitz strategy when facing Baltimore, sacking Lamar Jackson four times and hitting him eight times. That was an impressive showing from Buffalo, but we all know Lamar and Mahomes are two totally different players.

The Bills now have the unenviable task of traveling to Arrowhead to slow down a guy who's on pace to become the greatest quarterback this planet ever produced. A respectable Buffalo defense that features elite cornerback play from Tre'Davious White needs to limit Patrick's success throwing to Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and other athletic pass-catching options. Josh Allen's offense looks excellent this season, and their 396.4 passing yards per game ranks second-best in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, the Chiefs averaged over 19 more passing yards than anyone else.

This evening, just after the sun sets on a chilly Kansas City day in January, our Chiefs take the field at Arrowhead with a chance to keep chasing the dream of a dynasty. Men like Tyrann Mathieu, Andy Reid and obviously Patrick Mahomes live for these moments. I expect them to take the reigns and lead our Chiefs to a 34-27 victory. Please, if it's safe, enjoy this with people who love football and love you.

Can KC Overcome Success-Craving Cleveland?

Our defending Super Bowl champions take the field in mere moments. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Cleveland Browns today, and the winners punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game next weekend. While the Chiefs overcame a laundry list of legit competition to earn the #1 seed, the Browns' obstacles looked less impressive.

Cleveland's schedule was a joke. The 11-5 Browns won only three games against winning football teams in the regular season. Their schedule included victories over each team from the NFC East, a win over the Texans, two wins from the Bengals and one from the one-win Jaguars. The Browns also lost to the New York Jets in Week 16. If Cleveland didn't face so many cupcake opponents this season, they may not have made it this far.

The Chiefs beat the Ravens, Bills, Bucs and Saints in the regular season, which further galvanized the reigning champions. The Browns needed an easy schedule to sneak their way into the playoffs, just like they needed a bad game from the Steelers to sneak into the second round.

It's true that Patrick Mahomes and his offense are guilty of getting off to slow starts this season. However, none of KC's struggles compare to the awful way Pittsburgh started the game last week. The Steelers' first six possessions resulted in three interceptions, two punts and a botched long-snap that turned into a Browns touchdown. Kansas City will not do that today. 

Regardless of who they beat to reach this point, Cleveland matches up well against KC in numerous ways. Baker Mayfield deserves credit for making plays in key moments throughout the season, and he's bringing with him the world's best rushing duo. All throughout the regular season, the Browns' elite run game found success against defenses better-equipped at stopping the run than Kansas City's.

Numbers also indicate that the Browns will have the advantage in the red zone, an area in which KC has been surprisingly ineffective on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs allow the highest percentage of touchdowns scored by opponents in the red zone, and Cleveland ranks third league-wide in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. Part of the Browns' success has to do with protecting their young quarterback, but at least KC also excels in protecting Patrick. Sacks-per-game statistics show that both defenses are below-average at sacking the QB, and both offensive lines prevent sacks at an elite level.

I expect the Browns to utilize an efficient offense that burns clock and limits the opportunities for Mahomes to scorch that flawed Cleveland secondary. The grand sum of all the nice things listed above about the Browns should be enough to let Cleveland avoid embarrassment this afternoon, but it won't be enough to beat the defending champs. I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs and a mild headache for me after lots of joyful shouting.

Gambling Goodness Today, Mahomes Magic Tomorrow

The reigning champs of the NFL play tomorrow, but Chiefs Kingdom gets two playoff battles to enjoy today. While we're at it, let's make some money! Betting on sports is legal now, I think, so I can talk about spreads and parlays and all that fun stuff. Let's just dip our toe in the water with two good bets for two intriguing games.

Football fans worldwide look forward to seeing the beefy Los Angeles Rams defense facing off with the prolific Packers passing attack. A Los Angeles secondary that tackles well should limit yards after the catch for Packers receivers like the dominant Davante Adams. The absence of legendary left tackle David Bakhtiari should hurt Green Bay's ability to protect Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Donald's health is also somewhat in question, but the entire Rams defense is impressive. The last time Rodgers faced a strong defense in the playoffs, he threw two picks and lost by 17 to the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams should make this one closer than Vegas assumes, so I'm betting that the Packers will fail to cover a 6 1/2-point spread. 

Green Bay's 31.8 points per game in the regular season led the league, but they played some awful defenses. If we're ranking defenses based on points allowed per game, the Packers played five regular season games against bottom-five defenses and seven games against the bottom ten. Green Bay hasn't faced a top-five defense since September. Since then, they faced off with only two top-ten defenses, and they lost both times. I'm not saying Rodgers can't win today. I just think this game will be decided by fewer than seven points. Bet the spread, thank me later, and give a little bit of your winnings to Patrick Mahomes' trustworthy charity.

While the Packers' recent history shows little proof of success against elite defenses, the Buffalo Bills have no such problem. Josh Allen's squad won three games against three of the best defenses in football when they beat the Rams, Steelers and Miami Dolphins in regular season play. Only the Rams kept the contest within a single possession. Buffalo's offense seems unstoppable lately, and despite Baltimore's legit defense, I'm keeping my eye on betting lines for the Bills.

Buffalo averaged a whopping 38.9 points over their last eight regular season games. Today's Over/Under for Bills points currently rests at 26.5. Buffalo only scored fewer than 26.5 once over their last nine games, when they scored 26 against the Steelers in Week 14. Bet the Over on points for the Bills, then give back to KC by donating to the folks who help keep our city's underprivileged kids healthy. Gambling is good for you and good for society, see?

Patrick Poised for Productive Playoffs Despite Season-Ending Slump

Wild Card Weekend will give us hours of football goodness and determine who will face the defending Super Bowl champs next week. If the Buffalo Bills take care of business in the early game, the Kansas City Chiefs' potential opponents narrow down to Tennessee, Baltimore and Cleveland. A Cleveland Browns victory over Pittsburgh paired with a Buffalo Bills victory would seal Cleveland into a meeting with the reigning champs. Now that the Browns find themselves without their head coach this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3.5 points. So, if the Vegas favorites win in the AFC this week, our Chiefs will face a Baltimore Ravens team that looks seriously imposing right now.

Baltimore has led the league in regular season scoring margin averages two years straight. Tennessee truly is a legit playoff team capable of beating Baltimore, but the Ravens' recent success makes their advantage undeniable. The Tennessee Titans average over 19 more rushing yards per game than every team in the league except Baltimore, but Baltimore averages over 23 more yards on the ground than the Titans. Lamar Jackson represents a unique threat to any defense. While a dominant Derrick Henry performance could get rid of the Ravens before they become KC's concern, my money's on Lamar this week.

I believe the Ravens and Bills are Kansas City's biggest threats in the AFC. To reach another Super Bowl, KC may need to beat them both. It is important to remember that the Chiefs already beat both by two possessions in the regular season. Regardless of what happens throughout Wild Card Weekend, KC will enter their first game of 2021 as a significant favorite. However, Lamar looks excellent right now, and Patrick seemed to struggle at year's end.

Most football fans would agree that Patrick Mahomes underperformed in December. In those final four games of his regular season, Mahomes failed to post a triple-digit Passer Rating. He completed under 56% of his passes in both of his most recent performances, and he threw four interceptions in his last three games. All this may conjure up some stress in the hearts and minds of Chiefs fans everywhere, but Mahomes' mediocrity over this stretch is overstated.

Look back at the conference in early December and you'll start to see what I mean. The Pittsburgh Steelers approached their Week 13 meeting with Washington with an 11-0 record and pole position for the AFC's #1 seed. Then, Pittsburgh lost to Washington, before traveling to Buffalo to lose to Josh Allen and Associates. Then, the Steelers lost on December 21st when they faced the mighty Cincinnati Bengals. These three consecutive L's gave the Chiefs a comfy lead for the #1 seed and gave the Steelers a face-full of humble pie.

Patrick Mahomes' run of mediocre play coincided with Pittsburgh's losing streak. Perhaps it's not a great sign that the Chiefs showed signs of boredom as they limped their way to the finish line, but I'm willing to blame that boredom for at least some of the struggle.

Sure, Patrick played poorly when the Chiefs had a multi-game lead in the AFC and faced off with the four-win Falcons. When KC was fighting to reclaim the #1 seed back in Week 12, things were a little different. A first-round bye was still up for grabs as the Chiefs faced off with Tompa Bay. Mahomes racked up 462 passing yards and three TD's while completing over 75% of his passes and never throwing a pick. When it mattered, Mahomes was magic. I don't expect that to change any time soon.

Many Week 17 Moments Still Matter To Mastermind Brett Veach

Depth and productivity provided by an undrafted player represents success for the Kansas City Chiefs in so many ways. Finding effective parts of the roster that won't break the bank seems to be a key strength for Chiefs general manager Brett Veach. Promising former Missouri Tiger Yasir Durant could be the next poignant example of Veach's very successful strategy.

Injury problems persisted throughout 2020 for KC's core of trustworthy offensive linemen, which makes the emergence of young talent all-the-more important. During a critical meeting with the Miami Dolphins in Week 14, a back injury sidelined veteran Chiefs right tackle Mike Remmers. This gave undrafted rookie Yasir Durant his first opportunity at real NFL playing time.

Durant consistently faced top-shelf collegiate pass-rushing talent when he played three seasons as one of the best linemen in the SEC. The freshly-signed Chief played 24 of his 38 NFL offensive snaps as he replaced Remmers that day, and Yasir looked solid doing it. Head coach Andy Reid sounded impressed with the lineman's intellect when speaking with media in the weeks that followed, telling anyone asking about Durant that he was "smart" and displayed "great upside."

Analyzing the effectiveness of an undrafted lineman doesn't sound like the most thrilling way to spend your Sunday, but these smaller details matter to the folks trying to create a dynasty in this salary cap-altered era of American football. Durant is just one of many examples of less-heralded parts of the roster getting a chance to shine, thereby affecting the way KC builds their team in the future. Resting first-stringers like Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins gives the coaching staff more time to analyze Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle. More snaps for tight end Deon Yelder will help KC learn more about the status of depth at that position.

The effectiveness of these players is pivotal in building KC's plan for both the offseason and the next draft. Hidden somewhere in whatever office the Chiefs use to do their big-picture strategizing is a board or a list of some kind deciding how to prioritize certain parts of this team during the upcoming NFL draft and the free agency market. Today's game should give us moments that move certain positions up or down that board, especially concerning the offensive line and wide receiver groups. That probably won't give you goosebumps like a Patrick Mahomes playoff game, but it is meaningful.