Will Tom's Tumultuous Turnover Problems Persist When KC Provides Proper Pressure?

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida this afternoon. We can expect excessive screen-time spent comparing the top-shelf quarterbacks facing off, but the pressure to outperform one another is nothing compared to literally dealing with pressure, especially when it's applied by a strong NFL defense.

Both teams apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks on over 25% of dropbacks, giving both teams a Pressure % in the top ten league-wide. Advanced stats indicate that Mahomes is around league-average against pressure, but Tom becomes one of the worst passers in football. Brady should continue this trend today when he faces a secondary with plenty to prove.

The Chiefs still rank eighth in passing yards allowed per game, but nobody on that defense can be too ecstatic about their last two weeks. Everything we know about Tyran Mathieu suggests he'll be seething. I believe the leader of that secondary will help them bounce back after allowing 310 and 275 passing yards to Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, respectively. More importantly, the Chiefs gave up 31 points to consecutive opponents, which they haven't done since that game against the Rams in 2018.

Expect a fired-up Tyran to reap revenge and ruin Tom Brady's day. Both he and KC's defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will relish this opportunity to stifle Tampa Bay's gameplan. Disrupting the Buc's rhythm on offense is crucial because, believe it or not, this Brady guy is pretty good at winning football games.

A quick look at common opponents among these teams could concern some fans in Chiefs Kingdom. Tampa Bay has won all five games against teams that KC already faced this season. The Chiefs snuck by the Panthers 33-31, but Tampa beat Carolina twice already, and they won by 13 and 14 points. The Bucs also took care of the Raiders 45-20 with the help of Brady's best performance of the year. 

When he's on, Tom and his team still look Super Bowl-caliber. When he's off, which is admittedly rare until recently, Brady looks like a liability.

Brady began his latest game against the Saints with four straight 3-and-outs, and he gave away a chance for a comeback with two late picks against the Rams last week. Tampa Bay is 1-4 when they lose the turnover ratio, so Tom's turnovers may wind up costing them the division. Also, Brady is 0 for 19 in his last four games when throwing the ball 20 or more yards. I don't need to double-check the stats before I tell you that Patrick Mahomes isn't having that problem.

31-23, Chiefs.

KC Coaches Ready for Revenge This Raider Week

A change of location for their biggest rival cannot change the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs know their opponents in tonight's primetime game very well. The 6-3 Las Vegas Raiders lay claim to the only victory over this season's Chiefs. The whole world expects Patrick Mahomes to score in bunches every game, but the unpredictable variable most likely to decide the winner of this meeting is probably the effectiveness of Derek Carr's offense.

The Raiders' average points scored this year is eighth league-wide, but Carr's passing doesn't always play a role on first down. Only the Titans, Ravens and Browns run the ball with more frequency on first down. You'd think the Raiders found lots of success in this situation if that's their plan, but Las Vegas' 4.3 yards per carry on first down is actually below league average. 

Debatable efficacy combined with KC's mediocrity in stopping the pass on first down may force Raiders head coach John Gruden to readjust this week. The league average Passser Rating of qualified quarterbacks throwing to the short middle of the field (less than 15 yards) is 97. KC allows a 128 to opposing passers in that context this season. 

If it's close, tonight's game could come down to Carr's rare shots downfield. He looks great in a limited sample size throwing deep to the right, and he struggles throwing deep-left. KC shuts down the deep left of the field and sometimes struggle to stop big plays on the right side. Finding ways to push Carr to the left of the pocket while still defending against the short-pass attack will be key to the scheming strategy for Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

I think a few weeks studying what went wrong in KC's loss to the Raiders will be enough to help Spags coach this defense to victory today. A bunch of moments had to go the Raiders' way  in order for Vegas to sneak away with a W last time. I cannot expect Andy Reid to lose to the Raiders coming off a bye week after Andy lost to them weeks earlier. It seems like a recipe for revenge for Reid and the rest of Kansas City, so I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs.

Could Panthers Present Problem for Promising Chiefs?

Practically zero football teams throughout the years are without a significant flaw. Our Kansas City Chiefs sometimes struggle to stop a potent rushing offense, despite their winning ways. The universe's greatest running back lines up today opposite a Chiefs defense that ranks fourth league-wide in rushing yards allowed per game. Christian McCaffrey may be rusty, but feeding him is the Carolina Panthers' best bet today and any day. On the other side of the ball, one of history's greatest combinations of quarterback and coach will work to make McCaffrey's contributions irrelevant.

Numbers indicate that Carolina's defense is remarkably average in most regards. All in all, 12 teams in football hold opponents to fewer points per game than the Panthers. The Chiefs faced two of those teams so far, the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots, and KC handled them both. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid guarantee the Chiefs an advantage in raw skill and experience over virtually any quarterback/coach tandem in football. This remains undoubtable when facing Teddy Bridgewater and rookie HC Matt Rhule. 

The Panthers could keep things close, as only Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers have defeated Teddy's Panthers by more than a single score this season. The current 10-point spread in favor of our Chiefs could bely an opportunity for a tight ball game today, especially if the returning McCaffrey looks healthy and refreshed. Carolina does well defending against tight ends, and KC's wide receiver core is depleted due to injury, so I expect a lot of running the ball by both teams. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could have one of his best performances of the season today as the Chiefs overcome a game Carolina squad 30-20.

When Your Team Plays The Jets, Nobody Wins!

I've predicted some comfy wins for KC at times this year when the Chiefs ended up losing or doing everything but. Today I'm not alone in thinking our guys can handle the winless New York Jets. I can break down a dozen reasons why, but I'd rather make it simple, because their woes aren't exactly hard to pinpoint right now.

Though the Jets' defense isn't a disaster, that offense is offensive. Sam Darnold has so far led his team to the lowest averages in the league for passing yards, total yards and points. For comparison's sake, remember that when we rank all 32 teams by their average points total per game, the margin between one spot and the next is currently no more than two and a half points - until you get to last place. The Jets' average is 5.3 points lower than the Giants' average of 17.4. In fact, you can add together the average score for both New York teams and still not reach Kansas City's average of 31.1 points per game. 

That indicates impressive output for the Chiefs, but it still barely gets them into the top five league-wide. The New York Jets would need double their current scoring output to even reach the middle of the pack among NFL offenses. Unless Sam Darnold and his crew can triple their efficiency today, an average performance from the Chiefs will be enough to earn KC another W.

Darnold is key when it comes to why New York simply cannot win. Judging by either Adjusted QBR or Quarterback Rating, he's one of the two worst QB's in football today. The guy the Chiefs beat last week, youngster Drew Lock in Denver, is the only guy with a lower completion percentage or a lower yardage average than Darnold. Maybe Adam Gase is the problem. He's definitely a problem. Either way, nothing less than a gun could convince me to put money on the Jets today.

I don't even think it will be exciting, and if I'm wrong, there will be reason for concern in Chiefs Kingdom. Today should be stress-free for KC, if not boring. Victory for our Chiefs is clearly expected, and anything resembling a close game will be seen as a sign of weakness, so it's sort of a lose-lose viewing experience for Chiefs fans. The Jets somehow became so lousy that they make football less fun to watch.