Can Browning's Bengals Bring Bummer Ending To KC's 2023?

When was the last time the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom felt this low? Losing a Super Bowl is frustrating, of course, but the Kansas City Chiefs performed impressively in practically every moment until the Big Game at the end of the season. I'm more thinking about fear than frustration, I suppose. With two games left in the season, the Chiefs already have six losses. The lack of fan confidence (at least this fan's confidence) entering this game against a backup QB and a team not expected to reach the playoffs tells you all you need to know about the Chiefs' vulnerability at this point.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one loss away from effectively ending their season. If Cincy wins their final two games and gets help from other 8-7 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card hunt, Jake Browning's Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. They're alive, but just barely; their chances are at or below 20%, depending on which proprietary stat you choose to use for a measuring stick. Chiefs recently lost to other desperate teams fighting for their playoff lives when they faced the Packers and Bills, so should Cincy scare KC today? The Raiders didn't scare anybody last week, and they embarrassed KC on Christmas.

Football can be weird. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell posted an 88.8 QBR in his first meeting with the Chiefs this season, and the Raiders lost by 14. He just posted a 12.1 QBR on the Chiefs - on Christmas, at Arrowhead - and the Chiefs lost by six. This Christmas day, a fumble on a trick play and a pick-six occurred within seven seconds of game-time. Before ten seconds could run off the clock, the Raiders defense scored as much as the Chiefs would score all day. That's a testament to the occasional flukiness of football, but it's also more evidence that KC's offense has not figured out how to pull their team out of the fire when it matters most.

Mahomes still has his magical moments, but on paper, he looks like a totally different guy since the Week 8 disaster in Denver. He had a QBR higher than 64 in all of his first seven games of this season. Since Week 8, he's only posted a QBR above 61 once. Mahomes never took more than two sacks in any of his first seven games. Since then, he's been sacked three or more times in four different games.

Five of those sacks this season were allowed by Jawaan Taylor, who also leads the NFL in penalties with 17. L'Jarius Sneed, by the way, is tied for fourth with 10 penalties, making the Chiefs the only team in the league with multiple players in the top-10 in penalties drawn. For Taylor in particular, these penalties are beyond disappointing. He just penned a four-year, $80-million contract with the Chiefs last offseason. PFF gives him a 50.1 overall grade for his efforts in 2023. Since Taylor' effectiveness is so critical to the effectiveness of Mahomes - the most important man on the field whenever he's on the field - Taylor's struggles may be the biggest and most understated factor in the recent decline of KC's offense.

All of these are factors that I believe the Chiefs will overcome today, thanks in large part to the Bengals' struggles on defense. They allow the second-most yards-per-game average, despite the best efforts of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. KC's defense is still holding strong with the league's second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and total points-per-game allowed. I'll predict an ugly 17-13 victory for KC. Enjoy the game with people who love football, and enjoy all the new year with people who love you.

Both Offenses Unpredictable In Vegas - KC Christmas Clash

How will your family incorporate a Chiefs game at noon into your holiday plans? Are you opening up gifts before the game? For families with kids, the youngsters surely want to see what Santa Claus brought them ASAP, so are the parents in Chiefs Kingdom drinking coffee and unwrapping gifts until noon? I'm not a parent yet, so my coffee will be filled with amaretto and my morning will be filled with gambling on this intriguing, important battle between the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Raiders are unpredictable right now, and a win for KC today keeps their hopes for a playoff bye week alive.

If Baltimore loses two of three against the Niners, Dolphins and Steelers, and Miami loses one of their last three against Dallas, Baltimore or Buffalo, KC can win their final three games to reclaim the #1 seed in the AFC. Thanks in part to a mid-season change at head coach, it's tough to predict how the Raiders will look in today's game.  In their last eight games, Vegas scored 17 or fewer points six times and 30 or more twice. The Chiefs beat them comfortably in Week 13. The week after that, the Raiders lost 3-0 to the Nick Mullens-led Vikings. Then, they scored 63 in a blowout victory over the Chargers that preceded the firing of the Chargers' GM and head coach. 

Part of the Raiders' unpredictable nature comes from their inexperienced QB. Aidan O'Connell's QBRs from his last four games were 77.7, 16.5, 88.8 and 22.1. That 88.8 was the Chiefs, by the way. The Raiders still lost by two touchdowns that day, but O'Connell was cookin'. The other two teams he posted an elite-level QBR against this season - the Giants and Chargers - have bottom-10 defenses. With Nick Bolton back on the prowl in the middle of the field for KC, the Chiefs defense should look better against O'Connell's offense than it did in Week 13.

It's safe to say the Vegas offense and its coaching staff are learning on the job to varying degrees of success, but the same is true for Kansas City's offense. What can the Chiefs do about their underperforming passing game? There is no Deandre Hopkins or Adam Thielen out there to sign anymore. Bringing in Zach Ertz won't redefine this offense. Maybe Kadarius Toney would be out-right benched for good after his latest struggles if he were only one of many explosive receivers on the depth chart. The thing is, the Chiefs don't have much high-ceiling talent in the wide receiver room aside from emerging rookie star Rashee Rice.

Toney is one of the most dynamic playmakers on any Chiefs roster in recent memory, but his mistakes continuously cost the Chiefs possessions, which sometimes cost them games. The simple solution is to give him the ball in hand-off situations or passes behind the line of scrimmage so KC can reduce his chances to commit major errors that lead to turnovers. I expect to see some combination of the Chiefs doing this and reducing his snap count in favor of other guys from the bottom half of the receivers' depth chart. Mecole Hardman returned to practice this week after a thumb injury landed him on the injured reserve list in Week 12. Reincorporating him into the offense isn't ideal right now.

Three weeks away from the end of the regular season is not the time to be learning what new or newly returned assets can do for an offense already suffering through an identity crisis. Mecole is a good depth addition, especially since he knows the system from prior seasons. He is not the answer. Justyn Ross is not the answer. The answer is trusting your bread and butter, and our bread and butter is the best quarterback ever throwing to the best tight end ever.

Travis Kelce's job gets harder every week that the Chiefs wide receivers struggle, because their poor reputation allows opposing defenses to fear them less and focus on Kelce more. To be the greatest ever, though, means thriving through hardship. I expect Mahomes to make more passes to Kelce into tight coverage as the season goes on and we head into the playoffs. That's clearly a better option than throwing contested balls to Blake Bell or Skyy Moore or (obviously) Kadarius Toney. I also expect to see more targets for Rice, who shines when his usage increases.

This is no sky-is-falling indictment of the Chiefs offense, to be clear. They still rank third league-wide in passing yards per game. This offense still helped the Chiefs stay in pole position for the division title and reasonably close to the #1 seed through 15 weeks of the regular season. Andy Reid is a genuine mastermind of running NFL offenses, and he is probably the #1 reason to believe the Chiefs offense will be good enough when it matters most this season.

All I want for Christmas this year is a strong finish to the regular season for KC's offense. I think I'll get it, too. I'm predicting a comforting and comfortable 31-13 win for KC. Enjoy your football and your holidays with your loved ones, and I'll be back next week for the final post of 2023.

Moments of Mahomes Mediocrity Make Chiefs Fans Better Understand His Greatness

The Kansas City Chiefs just lost consecutive games for the first time since September of 2021. Both defeats came at the hands of desperate teams with playoff aspirations and high-ceiling quarterbacks. Today's face-off should not be so dramatic, and if it is, the Chiefs did something very wrong. The New England Patriots have a defense that allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opponents and the ninth-fewest total yards. That is the list of positive things to say about the Patriots.

Their average of 13 points a game this season is lower than any other team in football by 1.1 points. Mac Jones has been benched for Bailey Zappe, and even the great Bill Belichick is allegedly on his way out (eventually). All this drama and bad football in Boston should equate to an easy victory for KC today, but nothing feels easy for the Chiefs lately. This version of Kansas City's offense really has changed the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom, and not for the better.

We just witnessed consecutive games from Mahomes compiling a QBR below 52 and a passer rating below 80. That didn't happen for two full calendar years before this. His QBR on the season is still fourth in the league, and I do consider ESPN's QBR stat a more comprehensive and accurate measuring stick for modern quarterback play, but Mahomes has undeniably looked pedestrian through several games this year. He looks like a totally different guy on paper ever since the debacle in Denver.

Only one time since this year's loss to the Broncos has he posted a QBR higher than 54. He hasn't surpassed 300 passing yards since then, either. We can point to a lot of different factors for KC's ineffectiveness, but the highly paid megastar at the heart of the franchise must wear some of the blame. Not even a perfect record for the rest of the regular season could make fans in the Kingdom feel fully confident in the offense again. There's not much more we can learn by facing the Pats, Raiders, the Bengals without Joe Burrow and the Chargers without Justin Herbert.

I'm predicting a 24-13 victory for KC today, but the fans' restlessness will persist. Today's game will still be a good time to count our blessings, though. I'd gladly take a struggling Patrick Mahomes over peak Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones any day. These moments in which Mahomes isn't excellent serve as worthwhile reminders that Mahomes is excellent for an unprecedented percentage of the time he spends on the field.

Can KC Score Enough Without Pacheco to Defeat Desperate Buffalo Bills?

A desperate Green Bay Packers team defeated the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau last week. Another desperate team faces off with the Chiefs at Arrowhead this afternoon. The mercurial Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills need a win today to avoid a losing record and stay alive in the AFC's crowded Wild Card race. Allen may play like the MVP today, or he could lay a major egg. It's always hard to tell with him.

The Chiefs defense he'll face today should be improved thanks to a major return from injury. Linebacker Nick Bolton will retake his starting job from Drue Tranquill, who's now on the injury report himself with a concussion. Without their two best players at that spot, the Chiefs got cooked by Jordan Love all game long last week. That won't be so easy now that Bolton's back.

Tranquill isn't alone on that list of Chiefs inactive due to injury today. Safety Bryan Cook, offensive tackle Donovan Smith and stud running back Isiah Pacheco are all out this week. That's bad news for a Chiefs offense that already looks unimpressive. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or fewer in half of their games this season. They're also turning the ball over at a rate that makes it difficult to sustain success in this league.

Only five teams in the NFL have thrown more interceptions than KC, and only one team has picked off opposing teams fewer times than KC. At least the Chiefs are forcing fumbles at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Still, that results in a -6 turnover differential, which is the seventh-worst in football. Kansas City won it all last season with a -3 differential, so perhaps that -6 isn't as detrimental as it seems. Either way, losing the turnover battle against strong opposition is a recipe for an L in the NFL.

I think the Chiefs avoid major mistakes and sneak away with an exciting victory today. Solid coverage from KC's secondary should make Allen do something foolish at least once. If the Chiefs win today's turnover battle, they can win the game, and I think they will. I'll predict a 23-20 win for KC. 

Jordan Love's Inconsistency Makes Packers Unpredictable

Our Kansas City Chiefs will be fighting to keep their hopes of a playoff bye week healthy tonight in Green Bay. The 5-6 Packers will be fighting to keep all their playoff hopes alive. Perhaps an early 14-point deficit to the lowly Raiders was the "come to Jesus" moment the Chiefs offense needed. Perhaps it was Rashee Rice's breakout performance that made KC's offense look legit again. We'll see today if that offense can keep it going against a Green Bay defense that is league-average in practically every relevant statistic.

The Packers offense is also average in practically every way, so predicting how much KC must score in order to overcome the Packers feels difficult. Green Bay's average of 21 points scored per game ranks 18th league-wide. Their passing yards per game rank 17th. Their total yards per game rank 19th. Jordan Love, whose QBR ranks 20th, is even more unpredictable than KC's offense.

Out of Love's 11 games played this season, he has finished five games with a QBR above 74 and five games with a QBR under 43. He just cooked the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, yet the Packers have lost to unimpressive opponents like the Raiders and Falcons. Love threw five touchdowns and no picks over his last two games. Maybe that's his turning point, or maybe this studly Chiefs defense will hand him a painful reality check. I'm predicting the latter.

KC has handled tougher opponents this season, and Love's inconsistency. The Packers also have a final injury report that takes longer to read than this article. On top of Aaron Jones missing another week, star cornerback Jaire Alexander and both of Green Bay's first-string safeties are listed as questionable. Even if they all play, it seems inevitable that those injuries will hamper that defense's ability to stop a (hopefully) resurgent Chiefs offense. I'll predict a relatively stress-free 31-20 victory for Kansas City.

KC Can Bounce Back By Attacking Raiders' Unproven QB

Chiefs Kingdom is fully aware that the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team on paper for today's game, but how will the Chiefs bounce back from last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles? Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Eagles last week, and that still stings, but we have to remember all the things that went wrong in order for KC to lose that game. Travis Kelce fumbled the ball in the red zone. Patrick Mahomes threw a pick in the dang end zone. Justin Watson, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and even Kelce dropped game-altering, catchable balls. After all that, the Chiefs lost to the defending NFC champs by four.

Despite also coming off a loss, the Raiders will be pumped up for this game. The dismissal of former head coach Josh McDaniels seems to have lifted a dark cloud from over the franchise. A win over KC would be monumental for the Raiders and their interim head coach Antonio Pierce. The old saying would propose that Vegas has everything to win while KC has everything to lose. Luckily for Chiefs fans, predicting a victory for Vegas (the football team) against any opponent that isn't a tomato can is something that Vegas (the oddsmakers) would never do.

The theme for the Las Vegas Raiders this season has been simple, if not intriguing: they lost to every team they played that doesn't stink. These Raiders, who are surprisingly still in the playoff hunt past the half-way point of this season, collected W's when facing the Broncos, Packers, Pats, Giants and Jets. None of those teams have winning records. Even the Raiders' weapons that may frighten most other teams in the league will match up poorly against the Chiefs.

Davante Adams still looks like an elite receiver, but the Chiefs excel in handling elite receivers now. The L'Jarius Sneed/Trent McDuffie tandem helped limit A.J. Brown to a single catch for eight yards last week, and I've extensively covered them shutting down other great wide-outs this year. The Raiders' ability to keep their QB upright will be tested by the Chiefs' elite pass-rush today, as well. Vegas' 2.5 sacks allowed per game is almost exactly the league average - they're tied for 17th in that category - and the Chiefs 3.6 sacks per game is the NFL's second-highest.

Another key matchup to watch for will be Isiah Pacheco facing off against the Raiders run defense. Although Vegas held the Dolphins Raheem Mostert mostly in-check last week, they've been one of the league's worst over the course of the regular season. Pacheco ran the ball 19 times for 89 yards against Philly's elite run defense last week. He's only 27 carries and 116 rushing yards away from his total production last season. Another solid performance from Pacheco today could ensure that he surpasses last season's production well before Christmas this year.

Pacheco and KC's defense should be enough to avoid some Cinderella nonsense today. The Raiders starting quarterback and 135th draft pick in the latest draft, Aidan O'Connell, hasn't done enough to instill nearly that much faith in Vegas. I know the Chiefs have had their struggles lately, but we cannot abandon all logic and presume KC would lose a game like this. The Chiefs offense isn't going to fix itself overnight, though. I'm predicting an ugly 24-16 victory for Kansas City.

KC's Elite D Key to Victory in Super Bowl Rematch

Tonight, the NFL gives us the best game they could possibly offer in the regular season. Hours from now, the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles take the field at Arrowhead to face off with the reigning Super Bowl champs. This rematch of last year's Big Game offers KC a chance to get more confident and Philly a chance to get a little revenge. Despite these teams putting 73 total points on the board last time they met, today's over/under for total points sits at 46. These two teams are still great, but the Chiefs have achieved that greatness in unexpected ways.

The huge improvement of KC's defense probably counts as the most pleasant surprise for Chiefs Kingdom this year. This Chiefs defense ranks fourth in total yards and passing yards allowed per game and allows the league's second-fewest points per game. They'll be facing a Philly offense that racks up the fourth-most total yards per game and scores the NFL's third-most points per game. The Eagles offense features the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league - yes, better than Tua and Tyreek. Jalen Hurts is second only to Patrick Mahomes in odds to win MVP this season, and A.J. Brown has been about as consistently great as possible this year. Brown has at least six catches in nine of Philly's 10 games this season, and he racked up over 125 receiving yards in six of them. 

Many other potent elements of the Eagles' offense keeps them balanced. Hurts averages 9.8 rushes per game. DeVonta Smith has seven games with at least four catches and punishes teams who devote too much attention to Brown. D'Andre Swift is averaging over 16 carries per game for over 75 yards in his last eight games. It won't be easy to limit Philly's offense, but the Chiefs are well-equipped to do so. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie helped the Chiefs limit Miami - the only team in football to put up more total points and total yards than Philly - to just 14 points.

While the Eagles defense doesn't stand out on paper as much as KC's currently does, both defenses excel in pressuring opposing QB's. The Chiefs' 31 team sacks ties for #8 in the league. The Eagles' multi-faceted attack featuring Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick is right behind KC with 30 team sacks. The Chiefs only allow 1.3 sacks per game this season, tying them for the fewest in the NFL. Continuing that level of success on the front lines will be crucial to keeping KC alive in tonight's game.

I don't want a moment this potentially epic to be hampered by penalties, but numbers indicate that it's possible. They also indicate that KC isn't likely to get the upper hand in this regard. The Chiefs have the third-worst net yardage differential from penalties this season, while the Eagles have the fifth-best. Both teams are fresh and relatively healthy after their bye week, with veteran Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, second-string Philly safety Justin Evans and rarely-utilized Chiefs receiver Richie James being the only names on the final injury report. Whether or not a return to nearly-full strength for KC makes the Chiefs better than Philly remains to be proven.

The Eagles handled the Dolphins 31-17 earlier this season. They're coming off a victory over the Cowboys. Their -2 turnover differential this season isn't great, but it's better than Kansas City's -4. A moment or two when KC's flaws result in them losing a game to a great opponent seem inevitable based on what we've seen from the Chiefs this season. This game is a prime example, so I'm begrudgingly predicting a sad ending to a thrilling game, and a 26-23 Philly victory. It should be close, and it could even come down to overtime. I hope I'm dead wrong, and I hope you get to enjoy it with people who love football and love you. Cheers, Chiefs Kingdom.

Potential MVPs Meet Overseas as KC, Miami Face Off in Frankfurt

8:30 AM Central Time feels way too damn early for meaningful NFL football. Can't we just make the Europeans go to their stadium when it's proper football-time here in the country that we all know matters the most? The 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs face the 6-2 Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany at what seems like the crack of dawn. The Dolphins headed across the Pacific with well-earned confidence after beating three of their last four opponents by at least two touchdowns. The vibes for the Chiefs right now feel way, way different.

Kansas City just lost an ugly game to the Denver Broncos, thanks in large part to turning over the ball five times and finishing the game with a -4 turnover differential. Throughout the history of the NFL, teams win 2.6% of games when losing the turnover battle by four or more. Patrick Mahomes finished a game without a touchdown pass for the first time since 2021. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over more than three times since October of '21. They haven't turned the ball over five times since that infamous 54-51 loss to the L.A Rams on November 19th, 2018.

I trust KC to at least limit the problems that plagued them last week when they face off with Miami today. The Chiefs haven't lost consecutive games since the second and third week of the '21 season. It's highly unlikely that we see Mahomes post another QBR anywhere close to his 42.5 from last week's stinker at Mile-High. Despite my very reasonable expectations of a cleaner game from the Chiefs, it's important to recognize that the Dolphins are a vastly more dangerous team than the Broncos. KC had reason to fear the Dolphins before losing Nick Bolton and finishing practice for the week without knowing Willie Gay's status for the game. Weaknesses based on those health issues, as well as the return of elite Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey, amplified Chiefs Kingdom's sense of concern surrounding this game.

As fans, we already have the aforementioned reasons to worry, and I haven't even talked about the two potential league MVP's on the Dolphins roster yet. Tyreek Hill is on pace for one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. His resume for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award has become more and more of a talking point for fans worldwide as he gets deeper into the regular season with outstanding performances nearly every week. The guy passing to him also deserves credit for proving, at least to this point, that he is also worthy of being called elite. Tua Tagovailoa is among the three likeliest players to win MVP this year according to all seven sports-books measured by VegasInsider.com's recent report. Just like with the MVP betting odds, Mahomes and Tua both rank between first and third league-wide in passing yards, touchdown passes and total QBR this season. 

KC's secondary should give them the advantage as two of the best QB's in football face off in Frankfurt today. The Chiefs secondary continues to prove itself as one of the NFL's best, and I believe (and hope) that they'll be the difference-makers. L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid in particular are among the league's most efficient at stopping opposing wide receivers. The aforementioned Dolphins corner Jalen Ramsey is still capable of being the league's absolute best at his position, but Miami's secondary as a whole has been unimpressive. KC's secondary holds their opponents to only 176.1 passing yards per game this season - the second-lowest average in football. The Dolphins' average of 221.5 passing yards allowed per game ranks 16th in that category.

I expect the Chiefs to limit their mistakes this week and play more like the prolific passing team we know they can be. Just remember that if the Chiefs can limit themselves to one Mahomes interception, one Chiefs receiver fumble after completing a catch and one Mecole Hardman muffed punt, they would still only suffer 60% of the self-inflicted damage they burdened themselves with last week. That game was clearly an improbably disaster that should not decide how the Chiefs are perceived moving forward. If this dynasty of a team can't earn a fan's trust, no team can.

While the Chiefs have earned the trust of the Kingdom, 'phins fans still cannot be so sure. Miami has played two teams that currently have winning records and been comfortably handled by both of them. Their wins all came against teams who have losing records at this point of the season and look destined for a top-five pick in next year's draft. Tyreek may scare the hell out of his former fans in KC today, but I'm predicting a thrilling 28-27 victory for the Chiefs.

KC Visits Snow-Covered Mile-High as Major Vegas Favorites

    The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos approach this Halloween on two extremely different paths. The Chiefs continue their push to be the best in football, and the Broncos continue their efforts to regain respectability. After beginning the season looking like the worst NFL defense in years, Denver just held the Green Bay Packers to 17 points 10 days after limiting the Chiefs to 19. The Broncos now face the tough task of stopping a Chiefs offense that seems to have just found its stride. Patrick Mahomes posted the highest QBR of his season last week when he threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns on the Los Angeles Chargers' weak secondary.

    Perhaps that won't happen this afternoon, seeing that Adam Schefter just tweeted a Denver forecast for 6-14 inches of snow and temperatures between 13 and 29 degrees Fahrenheit. However, since KC's highly improved defense is without one of its best players today, the nasty weather could turn into an advantage for the Chiefs. Nobody can be sure how KC's defense will function in the long-term without Nick Bolton. Drue Tranquill played well when filling in for Bolton earlier this season, but replacing the 2022 leader in total tackles is never easy. Facing Russell Wilson and the objectively subpar Denver offense, especially in bad weather, should be a relatively easy test for Tranquill. Good thing Chiefs GM Brett Veach brought Drue in this offseason. That's far from the only thing KC's big-picture decision-maker did well in order to set KC up for success this year.

    Veach deserves immense credit for building a top-shelf secondary on a budget. This KC secondary ranks in the top 10 in practically every relevant statistic, and only the veteran safety Justin Reid will make more than $2.8 million this year. That careful money management allowed enough salary cap space for signing impact players like defensive end Charles Omenihu, who just returned last week and immediately made his presence felt. This defense is the best Mahomes has ever played with, and Chiefs Kingdom has Brett Veach's drafting and budgeting skills to thank for that.

    Sure, this is a trap game in many senses, with the desperate Denver team and the crappy weather and all that. Does anyone really think the Chiefs will lose this one, though? The Vegas odds-makers definitely do not. Even past noon on Sunday, KC is a 6.5-point favorite on the road in a snowstorm. I have to agree. I'm predicting a 20-13 victory for the Chiefs and maybe a strong Bloody Mary for me while I try to forget how awful the weather will be in the Midwest for the next half of a year.

Herbert-Mahomes Meeting Makes Dramatic Divisional Duel

The 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs survived an ugly game at Arrowhead last Thursday, and they're gearing up for another tough battle on home turf this afternoon. The 2-3 Los Angeles Chargers bring a top-shelf offense into KC while the Chiefs' offense still cannot catch its stride. LA's head coach is on the hot seat, and football pundits nationwide are slowly-but-surely souring on Justin Herbert. A Chargers victory over their intradivisional nemesis to bring them to .500 would be huge for them right now. Spoiling all that for LA won't be easy, but the Chiefs have the right tools for the job.

The San Francisco 49ers allow the fewest yards per game in the NFL this season, averaging 14.5 points allowed per game. The Chiefs are right behind them with a 14.7 average. This is undoubtedly the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era. KC is currently the only team in football ranked among the top five in both yards per game and yards allowed per game. That makes the Chiefs a truly daunting opponent every time they take the field.

LA moves the ball well, but they haven't yet proven they can beat teams with strong defenses. The Chargers offense ranks in the top eight league-wide in total yards, total passing yards and total points per game. However, LA has only played one team with a defense considered elite - the Dallas Cowboys - and the Chargers only scored 17 points. KC probably won't hold Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to under two yards per carry like Dallas did, but the Chiefs continue to show that their young, athletic defense is no joke. Herbert has his work cut out for him today, and he's already proven himself to be highly unpredictable this season.

Today's game features the QBs with the #5 and #6 QBRs in football, but the gap between Mahomes at five and Herbert at six is far more vast than it seems. Herbert had a nearly perfect game against the Minnesota Vikings when he completed 85% of his passes for over 400 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. He also has posted a sub-60 QBR in three of his five games played in 2023. Mahomes has only dipped below a 69 QBR (nice) once this season, with his 59.5 last week against Denver.  Herbert has played 23.1 points below his QBR average and 26.7 points above it. Mahomes has played 13.3 points below his average and only 8.8 points above it.

I know that's a weird, semi-deep dive, but I find it informative. The consistency of play between these two QBs is miles apart, even if that unfortunately indicates that Mahomes is consistently "good-not-great" so far this season.

The Chiefs only scored 19 against a Denver defense that was allowing over 36 points per game before coming to Arrowhead in Week 6. The Broncos rank last in the league in total yards allowed per game, but the LA Chargers are the league's second-worst in that category. They allow the most passing yards per game through six weeks of the season. LA's defense allows the 10th-lowest yards per game to opponents' tight ends, which could bother a Chiefs offense that hasn't found success throwing to anyone other than Travis Kelce lately. However, the Chargers allow the second-highest Passer Rating on wide receiver targets this season and the most yards to receivers per game. Perhaps that will help KC finally find more rhythm in the passing game.

KC should win today, but I cannot predict a blow-out victory. One of the Chiefs' key issues offensively is their red zone touchdown scoring percentage dropping down to 18th in the league right now, while the Chargers rank 5th in that regard. It's hard to beat Justin Herbert scoring field goals. That's why I'm predicting a gritty, exciting 26-24 victory for KC. Insert pun about Taylor Swift and Bad Blood here to please the SEO robots - the end.

Can KC's Struggling Offense Brutalize Bitter Broncos?

    How would you feel if your boss was fired after a bad performance, then the new boss immediately calls the old boss an inept moron, but then your new boss is just as bad, if not worse, than your old one? Would you feel confident about your new boss's ability to position you for success? Can you see where I'm going with this?

    The Denver Broncos roster must feel completely dejected right now. There is no way Sean Payton makes that clubhouse healthier than your average NFL head coach. Nobody held a gun to Sean Payton's head and told him to talk down to Nathaniel Hackett the way he did. Payton volunteered his opinion that Hackett provided Denver with "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL" last season, but the Broncos are now a worse team with worse morale with Payton as their head coach. Nat Hackett now coordinates the offense for the New York Jets, the team who defeated Payton's Broncos 31-21 last Sunday.

    Revenge is sweet, and sustained success is even sweeter. It seems as if Sean Payton won't enjoy either for a very long time.

    There are positives to find if you look hard enough at Denver's season up to the this point, but they take a second to see. Denver started the season 0-2, but they only lost those games by a combined three points. Patrick Surtain II is still a legitimately great CB, and he'll be facing off with an injured Travis Kelce and a bunch of still-unproven Chiefs receivers. Russ has also improved this season, but he's still nowhere near elite.

    Last year, Wilson tied with Justin Fields for the league lead in sacks taken with 55. Only two QB's that played in more than six games compiled a lower completion percentage last season. He finished with the 10th-most interceptions thrown and the fifth-lowest QBR. Wilson's current QBR is 22nd in the NFL, and his completion percentage is 17th. Five QB's have been sacked more than Russ, and his 11/2 touchdown pass/interception ratio is one of the NFL's best. Still, these numbers indicate that Russ's ceiling is league-average at his position this year.

    KC's offense may not be firing on all cylinders, but the Broncos aren't the team to make the Kingdom fear this flaw. They're the worst defense in the league by a comfortable margin. Denver allows over 45 more total yards and over 4 more points per game than any other team in the league. Isiah Pacheco could have another outstanding game, as the Broncos also allow more than 30 more rushing yards per game than any other NFL team. Breece Hall averaged 8.0 yards per carry last week and finished the day with 177 rushing yards.

    Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes aren't losing to a grumpy Sean Payton four days after Payton got humbled by the very man he publicly insulted. They aren't losing to a Broncos franchise that hasn't beaten them since the Obama administration. They aren't losing to a team that allowed 35 points to Sam Howell's Washington Commanders, 31 to Justin Fields' Chicago Bears, 31 to Zach Wilson's New York Jets and 70 to the only good quarterback/team combo they faced, Tua Tagovailoa's Miami Dolphins. I looked at power rankings from ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and Yahoo Sports, and they all ranked the Chiefs ahead of the Dolphins. KC may not drop 70 on Denver, but they should score enough to ensure victory tonight. I'm predicting a 31-17 win and a bunch of Taylor Swift references from the broadcast crew to get them through garbage time.

After Moment of Mediocrity, Mahomes Meets Motivated Minnesota Vikings

    After two weeks of facing off with subpar opponents, the Kansas City Chiefs now head north to meet the dangerous, desperate Minnesota Vikings. KC and even Patrick Mahomes made ugly mistakes that helped keep last week's game close until the very end. How will the Chiefs respond to the eyebrow-raising mediocrity exhibited in their last performance? Improving their red zone efficiency would be a huge step in the right direction.

    KC ranked second in the NFL last season in red zone efficiency with 71%. This year, their 56% ranks 17th league-wide. That could explain the drop from first in the league in scoring last season to 9th in the league right now. Despite never yet playing up to their potential this year, the numbers indicate that even a stale Chiefs offense is top-ten. They rank in the top ten for scoring, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards. Mahomes is still top-ten in passing yards and touchdown passes, and he currently ranks fourth in QBR.

    The Vikings' offense enters this contest with the NFL's third-highest passing yards per game average and perhaps the NFL's best wide receiver. Justin Jefferson currently has the most receiving yards in the league with 543 in four games. His success isn't translating into success for Minnesota, though. The Vikings lost close games to the Bucs, Eagles and Chargers, and they just beat the Panthers 21-13 last week.The 3-1 Detroit Lions now lead the NFC North, so Minnesota needs to make up some ground soon or lose all hope of winning their division.

    It's fair for Chiefs Kingdom to be a bit scared of this Minnesota offense when KC just made Zach Wilson look legit for nearly an entire football game. Nick Bolton will be a game-time decision, but the other major pieces of the Chiefs defense are healthy. Trent McDuffie will have a long, difficult day at work, but help from Justin Reid and other pieces of KC's strong secondary should be enough to limit what the Vikings do best.

    Minnesota's defense ranks 20th in total yards allowed and 19th in points allowed, so KC's offense can probably score enough to win this game without performing at the very peak of their capabilities. Don't be too upset if the 1-3 Vikings keep this game close; they're desperate and talented, more-so than the Jets. I think we'll see a solid bounce-back performance from KC and a hard-earned 31-24 victory.

Taylor Swift Appears Live as Chiefs Face Jets, Starring Taylor Swift, with Guest Appearance from Taylor Swift

    It's a beautiful autumn day in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs are ready to maintain their new-gained momentum. After handling the Chicago Bears with no stress last week, KC faces another dysfunctional franchise with bummed out fans tonight when they square up with the 1-2 New York Jets. Zach Wilson's struggles and Patrick Mahomes' success are well-documented topics at this point, but the continued legitimacy of KC's defense is a whole new story.

    This season's Chiefs defense is the best Mahomes has ever been paired with, and so far, it's not even close. Only the Browns, Bills and Cowboys have allowed fewer points per game than KC's average of 13.3. Pro Football Focus just proclaimed that Trent McDuffie is the most effective cornerback in the league right now. Chris Jones looks like he should skip training camp every season. Missing Nick Bolton, who's emerging as a truly elite linebacker, would typically be a big deal, but not this week. Nobody in Chiefs Kingdom fears that Zach Wilson will carve KC up by exploiting this weakness. There are probably more people wondering if he'll benched.

    Bears QB Justin Fields now has the league's worst QBR after the Chiefs defense held him to under 100 passing yards and a 50% completion percentage last week. Zach Wilson is the owner of the second-worst QBR among all qualified quarterbacks. While the Chiefs now rank fifth league-wide in total yards and points per game, their opponent tonight ranks dead-last in both of those categories. Jets fans looking to spin this into something positive could argue that their team has only faced great defenses, those being the Bills, Cowboys and Patriots. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that trend continues tonight at MetLife Stadium.

    So, what could possibly make this game close? I often find myself talking about penalties and turnovers when the Chiefs face a struggling opponent because they should be the only things that could threatens KC's chances at success against subpar competition. The Chiefs drew three penalties for 25 yards last week, which was much cleaner than Week 2's 12 penalties for 94 yards in Jacksonville. While only four teams in football have turned the ball over more times than KC's six total giveaways, it's worth noting that two of those turnovers came from Blaine Gabbert garbage-time interceptions. KC and New York both have four takeaways total this year, and New York's overall differential is one better than KC's -2. Avoiding numerous costly mistakes and sticking to the same offensive game-plan that's been dominating for half a decade now should be enough to ensure success for the Chiefs tonight. 

    The Jets defense should be motivated though, and KC could have understandable psychological struggles with treating this game with the same importance as the Super Bowl. That could be enough to make this game closer and uglier than fans in Chiefs Kingdom would like. I'm predicting a 27-13 victory and a whole lot more Taylor Swift coverage whenever the broadcast crew gets bored. There, I said Taylor Swift. Does this please you, Search Engine Optimization robots? Taylor Swift? Taylor Swift.

How Hard Will Fields Fail Facing Dominant D in KC?

     Last week's game did not go according to plan for the Kansas City Chiefs. However, a gritty win for KC has changed the public's perception of the Chiefs DNA this season. Trevor Lawrence, the Price Who Was Promised, one of football's next great quarterbacks, could not score a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs defense last week. Lawrence completed only 53% of his passes and, scientifically speaking, stunk in the red zone. His struggles can be read as proof of the continued emergence of an elite defense in Kansas City.

    After a muffed punt by Richie James gave Lawrence's offense the ball 17 yards away from the end zone, the Chiefs D only allowed a Jags field goal. In the third quarter, KC"s defense once again ruined one of Jacksonville's golden opportunities. The Jags got to KC's one-yard-line with a full set of down to work with. They ended that drive with the third and final Jacksonville field goal of the game.

    At the conclusion of an ugly contest that included nine punts and seven fumbles, KC claimed victory despite scoring only 17 points. This studly Chiefs defense rose to the occasion and accomplished things we haven't seen in Chiefs Kingdom for years. Last season's KC defense never held an opponent to single digits and never had a two-game stretch averaging 15 points or fewer points allowed per game. That happened in the first two games of this season, and there was no Chris Jones in Week 1. With only 48% of the defensive snaps, Jones had a tackle-for-loss, two QB hits and a sack and a half against Jacksonville. That's a Hall of Fame-level talent returning to an already-effective defense, which, shockingly, makes Kansas City's defense the best part of the team at this point in the season.

    The Chiefs have only scored 37 points, but this offense's future still looks bright. Coincidentally, the team visiting Arrowhead today has also scored 37 points so far. Does that mean Chiefs-Bears will be a tense, low-scoring affair like Chiefs-Jags? Probably not! After playing in 64% of snaps for KC's offense last week, Travis Kelce should see more action today as he returns to his typical, insanely high standard of play. That is bad news for a Chicago defense who has struggled this season against offenses with less pedigree.

    Chicago has allowed 28 and 27 points to the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively. Actually, I'm not sure what's the chicken and what's the egg here; did Chicago's defense stink so much that it made Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love look unnaturally good, or are those guys just underrated this season? After all, Love posted a QBR 12.9 points higher against the Falcons in Week 1 than his QBR against Chicago last week. Only he and Kirk Cousins have thrown for six touchdowns through two games, and only Love has done so without throwing any picks. So, maybe Love is on his way to being really good, and maybe the Bears defense could look effective as long as they aren't facing a QB that is really good. Even if this turns out to be the case, the Chiefs have a QB that surpassed "really good" a long time ago.

    Patrick Mahomes has a QBR of 65.1 through two games this season - disappointing by his lofty standards, but still good for 9th in the league. Justin Fields' QBR currently sits at 22.5, which is the league's second-worst. Pair that with Chicago's lack of a defensive coordinator today, and I expect KC to make this the first comfortable viewing experience of the season for Chiefs fans. I'm predicting a 37-17 beatdown as KC gets back to looking like the dynasty they truly are.

Here's Why KC Will Bounce Back in Jacksonville

    Looks like the good times are over, Chiefs Kingdom. Go ahead and jump off the bus now. May as well find another team to cheer for. Our Kansas City Chiefs lost 21-20 to the Detroit Lions last week, and their opponents this Sunday look like a consistent playoff contender for years to come. A dark cloud hung over the Kingdom after that disappointing start, but despite what the haters may say, the sky will not fall.

    Look past the sting of this defeat and recognize that the Chiefs played without two of the team's three best players and still put themselves in position to win numerous times. Then, well-placed Patrick Mahomes passes bounced off receivers' hands, as Chiefs fans everywhere audibly and collectively groaned. Also recognize that the once-lowly Lions emerged as a legitimate winner late last season and showed up ready for their shot at the champs. Fortunately for KC, we should probably see Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back in action for Week 2. Those returns will be crucial against a Jacksonville Jaguars team with immeasurable desire to get revenge on the rivals who knocked them out of last year's playoffs.

    The Jags offense looks studly after the inclusion of Calvin Ridley and rookie Tank Bigsby, but their secondary still looks suspect. Last season, the Jags ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The top three most-used cornerbacks and safeties for Jacksonville last season are slotted into the same spots on the depth chart this season. Jacksonville's secondary limited Colts QB Anthony Richardson in his NFL debut last week, but Patrick is not Anthony Richardson, and this is not his NFL debut.  While Jacksonville held Richardson to a 30.6 QBR and 79 Passer Rating, Mahomes finished last year's AFC Divisional Round faceoff with a 78.5 QBR and a 112.5 RTG. Just don't let Jags edge rusher extraordinaire Josh Allen ruin Kansas City's day; he sacked Richardson three times and hit him twice last week.

    I don't want to rain on the parade of a potential rivalry or be overly reductive here, but without improving the part of their team that was most vulnerable last season, the Jags put a ceiling on the amount of fear they can instill in the hearts of Chiefs fans. Calvin Ridley may look like a top-10 receiver against a Chiefs secondary that is by no means perfect, but I trust an angry, motivated Patrick Mahomes to make a statement at the expense of the Jaguars this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence and his offense could look really impressive in this game and still get outscored by double-digits thanks to the legendary tandem of a pissed-off Mahomes and the best tight end ever, Travis Kelce. I'm predicting a 34-24 Chiefs victory and a lot of back-tracking from football pundits prematurely predicting KC's demise.

Can KC Continue Week 1 Dominance by Defeating Detroit?

Should we be scared about this matchup, Chiefs Kingdom? The Lions are formidable, and the (probable) absences of two of KC's three best players ensure that the Chiefs will not be 100% tonight. It's no secret that the Chiefs dominate Week 1 in the Andy Reid era; they're 9-1 in season openers since Andy came to town, as noted by Arrowhead Pride's John Dixon, and Patrick Mahomes has scored at least 33 in every Week 1 start in his career, according to the prolific Stephen Serda. History alone cannot overcome KC's obstacles tonight, however. Before we look into the lack of Chris Jones and probable lack of Travis Kelce, we should remember just how good the '23 Lions could be.

Detroit's offense finished fifth in points per game and fourth in total yards per game last season. They went 8-2 in their last 10 games. A galvanized, hungry, young roster will be excited to take their shot at the champs tonight. Will their mediocre-at-best defense keep them in this game? That could depend heavily on the effectiveness of Kansas City's revamped offensive line.

We may be understating how different this offensive line will be without Orlando Brown at left tackle. As reported by ESPN's Adam Teicher, the Chiefs signed Donovan Smith to be their starting left tackle after he had one of the worst starting seasons in his entire career. The opposite can be said for KC's new right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who showed significant improvement as a Jacksonville Jaguar last year, just before the Chiefs signed him up for four years and $80 million. The trustworthy core of the Chiefs offensive line and promising new signing at right tackle should keep Patrick safe for years to come, but entering the season with questions about the most important position on that line is undoubtedly not the ideal scenario for KC.

Kelce and Jones' absences are unavoidable and important topics heading into this game. KC's next man up at the tight end position, Noah Gray, won't just slot right into this offense and have 87's level of creativeness and chemistry with the starters. That doesn't mean KC is destined to struggle on offense tonight, though. Jerick McKinnon, Skyy Moore and others can be expected to step up and increase their productivity without Kelce on the field. Filling the Chris Jones-sized void on the other side of the ball seems like the tougher task tonight.

#95 applied a ridiculous amount of pressure on opponents' offenses last season, finishing with the league's fourth-most sacks (15.5) and by far the most sacks by any defensive lineman in football. The only other Chief on the roster with more than five sacks last season is George Karlaftis, who had six. Defensive end Charles Omenihu is serving his suspension and first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah isn't immediately ready for a starting role. That means pressuring the quarterback won't be simple for KC tonight against an offense that could soon prove itself as one of the best in the league.

The ceiling for this Lions offense looks like it could be one of footballs' highest. Jahmyr Gibb's promise as a speedy, pass-catching RB is undeniable, and Amon-Ra St. Brown's future looks equally bright. Last year's Lions' offense finished with the league's fifth-most points per game and fourth-most total yards per game. Gibbs can hopefully be contained by Chiefs linebackers paying extra attention to him this evening. Despite averaging more than six catches per game last year, St. Brown dropped 40 of 146 targets. Extra physicality from KC's secondary could disrupt St. Brown enough to limit his effectiveness today. Seeing a little violence (within the rules of the game) from the likes of Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid would bode well for Kansas City's near future.

Turnovers are a boring and simple topic, but winning the turnover battle can be crucial in potentially close games such as this one. Detroit finished last year with the NFL's fewest giveaways and fourth-best turnover differential. KC was league-average or worse in those categories last season, so it seems likely that the Chiefs will need to overcome not only the aforementioned absences but also a negative turnover differential tonight.

All the elements of this game that favor Detroit still don't add up to me predicting a Chiefs defeat. Reid and Mahomes are just too good together in Week 1 for me to do that. Also, Detroit's defense is just as horrendous as their offense is impressive; they allowed the most total yards per game and the fifth-most points per game in the league last season. I predict that the Lions scare Chiefs Kingdom with some flashy offense tonight but ultimately fall to the defending Super Bowl champs in a 31-27 thriller. Whatever happens tonight will set the tone for upcoming matchups with other promising teams like Jacksonville, the Jets and the Vikings, who all face off with the Chiefs before the middle of October.

Will Mahomes Turn Chiefs Into Undeniable Dynasty?

The impact of this Super Bowl will make waves through all of sports history. Victory for the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday would make it impossible to deny the franchise's identity as a true dynasty. That feeling of greatness affects every citizen of Chiefs Kingdom every day, but the consequences of this particular Big Game will mean something almost inexplicable to Patrick Mahomes. For Mahomes, this Sunday's game represents a certain threshold of greatness that only a handful of athletes in sports history have ever crossed. Winning this much this early in his career would push Mahomes past the realm of debates involving names like Allen and Burrow and bring him into the orbit of talks involving names like Montana and Brady. A win this Sunday means people will be comparing Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa less often than they compare Mahomes to Michael Jordan.

A win today keeps Mahomes in the conversation of the best athletes ever, with names like Brady, Jordan, LeBron, Serena, Gretzky, Babe Ruth, Muhammad Ali - names that bring to mind unprecedented greatness. The phrase "greatest athlete ever" has such weight that it echoes back through thousands of years of human history. Human beings have been engaging in some sort of organized, athletic competition that can be defined as a team sport for over three millennia, and winning a football game today could be part of Patrick Mahomes' journey to becoming the best to participate in that activity over that entire period of time. 

That's a lot of superlative-laden, big-picture stuff I'm talking about. The thing is, it's all true, because Patrick is just that good. Whoever's writing their own blog about the Vikings sure as hell doesn't talk like this about Kirk Cousins, so I feel unbelievably lucky just to experience this. There's always two sides to the Super Bowl story, however, and the Eagles' resume suggests that they're capable of breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom today.

Philly started the year 8-0 and plowed through their first two playoff opponents, both of which lost by over three touchdowns and only scored seven points. The Eagles lost one game this season in which Hurts played and wasn't injured. Philly had the most sacks in the regular season by a wide margin, but at least the Chiefs allowed the third-fewest sacks in the NFL. Haason Reddick led the league in sacks with 19.5 this season, but the entire Eagles defense knows how to hunt the quarterback. No other team had more than one guy ranked 12th or better in sacks this season. Philly had four. That's four different Eagles from three different positions that had 12 or more sacks.

To put that in perspective, the Chiefs' runner-up for sacks is Frank Clark. His seven sacks puts him in an eight-way tie for 40th place. Philadelphia's ability to pressure the QB without sending a blitz resulted in them allowing the league's lowest passing yards per game in the regular season and postseason.

That studly Philly defense paired with one of football's best offenses may make the Eagles the most complete team in the NFL. While KC's offense is the best in football, Philly's isn't far behind. KC and Philadelphia ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in both total yards and total points per game in the regular season. The offensive lines are important, underrated factors for both the teams that reached this year's Super Bowl. The centers in particular deserve credit, as Creed Humphrey and Jason Kelce are rated the #1 and #2 centers in the league by Pro Football Focus.

Mahomes deserves his exorbitant share of attention in moments like this, but several Chiefs that garner far less acclaim will decide who finishes this season as a champion. The aforementioned young center and all his partners on KC's offensive line will have their work cut out for them trying to limit the penetration of Philly's impressive defensive front-line. The improvement to KC's rushing defense also seems understated. The growing greatness of Chris Jones and the improvements at middle linebacker thanks to Willie Gay and Nick Bolton resulted in KC ranking eighth in rushing yards allowed per game in the regular season. Last season, KC ranked 21st in this statistic. The Chiefs also improved their rushing yards allowed per attempt from 30th last season to 19th this season.

I truly believe that in a game that looks this close on paper, the result will still be decided by the superior quarterback-head coach duo. Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts seem to have a bright future ahead together, but their two strong playoff performances pale in comparison to the monumental list of achievements credited to the legendary duo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. I'm predicting that the Chiefs win today, 27-24, and the first ever Kansas City sports dynasty is born. Enjoy it with people you love as much as you can.

Can KC Claim Conference Crown by Beating Burrow's Boasting Bengals?

Arrowhead Stadium will soon serve as host for a major moment in NFL history, so I believe now's a proper time to remember how the Chiefs arrived at this exciting moment. The best moments of history are often made possible by its worst moments, and the history of Kansas City Chiefs football is no different. KC made the best drafting decision in franchise history when they picked Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but this was a reversal of the last three and a half decades of Chiefs strategy.

The choice to bring in Mahomes came after Kansas City declined the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round for 34 consecutive seasons since they went with a guy named Todd Blackledge. This QB that the Chiefs acquired during the Reagan Era never led his own team in passing yards over a single season and ended his career with a completion percentage below 50%. Blackledge would never earn a long-term starting role for any franchise, and the Chiefs would go on to finish in last place in their division in four of the six seasons following their choice to choose a QB in the draft's first round. The Chiefs failed to survive the divisional round of the playoffs in the 23 seasons since winning Super Bowl IV, until a San Francisco 49ers cast-off named Joe Montana led KC to a losing effort in the AFC Championship in 1992.

The trend of sticking with quarterbacks who got their start with other franchises continued in KC for another two and a half decades, with the likes of Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and all the way up to key Mahomes mentor Alex Smith. Since Smith passed the torch to Mahomes, Kansas City has been in the hunt for a Super Bowl victory every season. It only took the franchise nearly half a century to reverse its quarterback-drafting strategy and become the incumbent dynasty of pro football. It just so happens that the QB standing in the way of more glory for KC and Mahomes is practically the only man who has successfully stopped KC every chance he's had.

Despite having serious injury issues to their offensive line last week, Joe Burrow overcame a Bills defense that many NFL experts trusted as being Super Bowl-worthy. Unfortunately for fans in KC, Joe plays the Chiefs better than he plays any other team in football. Burrow has only played one regular season game against the Atlanta Falcons, and in it he threw for 481 yards, three touchdowns and never turned the ball over while completing over 80% of his passes. Burrow has played two regular season games agains the Chiefs and somehow compiled a higher Passer Rating in those two games combined than he did in his dominating performance against the Falcons.

In the playoffs, Burrow seems less dominant against KC, with only 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in last year's AFC Championship. It wasn't Ja'Marr Chase killing KC in last year's playoff meeting, either; he only caught six out of nine passes sent his way for 54 receiving yards. It was Tee Higgins who claimed the lion's share of receiving yards that day, with 103. It was Joe's patience and ability to convert on third downs that truly killed Kansas City. 

While Joe Burrow chases Patrick Mahomes for the claim to be the league's greatest QB, Mahomes chases the all-time greats already in the history books. Otto Graham, who played in six total seasons for the Cleveland Browns from 1950-1955, is the only player in AFL-NFL history to record a higher QB winning percentage than Mahomes through at least 17 games. While Mahomes will soon claim his second league MVP award, he may also be weeks away from winning his second Super Bowl. You may already know, but it's worth repeating: the Chiefs are hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship, which is a league record. Mahomes has helped Travis Kelce become inarguably the best to ever play his position, and Mahomes has cemented Andy Reid's position as one of the five or ten greatest pro football coaches of all time. Winning this game keeps Mahomes on pace to legitimately stake his claim one day as the greatest football player ever.

All this conversation about superlatives and history books means nothing when it comes to the little things that actually decide who will achieve victory this Sunday. As much as I like waxing poetic about #15's greatness, other factors beyond his control will drastically impact who goes to the Super Bowl and who starts planning their vacation a few weeks earlier than they had hoped. A key factor to keep in mind this Sunday is Cincy's vulnerability on the offensive line due to the absences of Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa.

Perhaps Buffalo failed to expose Cincy's injured offensive line, and perhaps KC learned from that mistake after seeing last week's Bills-Bengals game. KC's defense ranks 7th league-wide in opponent quarterbacks' percentage of plays hurried, 9th in quarterback knockdown percentage and 5th in pressure percentage. The Packers and Jaguars are the only other teams in football that can claim to be 9th-best or better in all those categories. Buffalo ranges between 13th and 15th in all those categories, for the record, so maybe KC's reliance on guys like Chris Jones and Frank Clark could be beneficial to Chiefs Kingdom this Sunday.  

Last year's AFC Championship game truly came down to the Chiefs' inability to score to start the second half. With a 21-10 advantage, Kansas City punted in four out of five of their next drives to start the third quarter. The other drive in there was an interception by Mahomes. Before the end of the of the third quarter, Cincy had 24 points on the board. 

One field goal in the second half simply is not enough scoring to beat a legit team like the Bengals. Only once since then has KC failed to score seven or more in any half of football, and that came in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Colts. If KC can simply avoid going ice-cold on offense, which is something they almost never do, they should have the advantage this time.

Despite the rivalry's recent history and concern about Mahomes' ankle, I have to predict a win for the Chiefs. I have no clue how to calculate the odds to beat a team as uniquely great as the Chiefs four times straight, but let's just say it's a uniquely difficult task to achieve. Burrow is due to flinch and make a mistake that gives the Chiefs an advantage, and Mahomes is ready to go get revenge. I'm predicting a 27-24 KC victory and another chance at Super Bowl glory for Chiefs Kingdom.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.

Stidham, Vegas Seek Vengeance As Chiefs Seek Bye Week

Only the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC's #1 seed. The Raiders will once again start career-backup Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and their defense will omit Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. These changes should help make this a stress-free Saturday in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'm not so sure. Raiders fans desperately desire a rivalry here, but no true rivalry exists when the competition is completely lop-sided, and Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 in his career against the Raiders. Despite a depleted roster, the Raiders probably see this strange Saturday game as the Super Bowl for spoilers.

I still want to believe that today's game will be an easy test for the Chiefs, but KC played down to inferior teams all season long, and they only snuck past Vegas by a point in their previous meeting. Also, Stidham looked legit last week when Vegas scored 34 and took San Fran to overtime. His 77.4 QBR in that game was only matched by Mahomes once in KC's last four games. However, Mahomes' season average for QBR sits at 77.8, which is less a knock on Stidham and more evidence that KC's golden boy should earn his second MVP award this season.

I would love to predict a blow-out victory for KC, but they converted on only 22.22% of their third downs last week - the lowest percentage in the NFL in Week 17. The Chiefs aren't facing Denver's beefy defense this week, though, and the Raiders defense ranks among the NFL's bottom eight in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Maybe Stidham's more studly than I anticipated, but he is most certainly not on the level of soon-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

The Chiefs give me no peace of mind when facing subpar opponents, thanks to their aforementioned struggles against them all season long, but they also earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming those struggles almost every time. Also, Patrick Mahomes would give this team the benefit of the doubt even if the rest of the roster didn't deserve it. I'm predicting a frustrating 37-31 victory for the reigning division champs. The Chiefs, specifically the leaders on this Chiefs roster, rarely disappoint in a game of this magnitude, especially when facing such ineffectual opposition.