Can KC Claim Conference Crown by Beating Burrow's Boasting Bengals?

Arrowhead Stadium will soon serve as host for a major moment in NFL history, so I believe now's a proper time to remember how the Chiefs arrived at this exciting moment. The best moments of history are often made possible by its worst moments, and the history of Kansas City Chiefs football is no different. KC made the best drafting decision in franchise history when they picked Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but this was a reversal of the last three and a half decades of Chiefs strategy.

The choice to bring in Mahomes came after Kansas City declined the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round for 34 consecutive seasons since they went with a guy named Todd Blackledge. This QB that the Chiefs acquired during the Reagan Era never led his own team in passing yards over a single season and ended his career with a completion percentage below 50%. Blackledge would never earn a long-term starting role for any franchise, and the Chiefs would go on to finish in last place in their division in four of the six seasons following their choice to choose a QB in the draft's first round. The Chiefs failed to survive the divisional round of the playoffs in the 23 seasons since winning Super Bowl IV, until a San Francisco 49ers cast-off named Joe Montana led KC to a losing effort in the AFC Championship in 1992.

The trend of sticking with quarterbacks who got their start with other franchises continued in KC for another two and a half decades, with the likes of Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and all the way up to key Mahomes mentor Alex Smith. Since Smith passed the torch to Mahomes, Kansas City has been in the hunt for a Super Bowl victory every season. It only took the franchise nearly half a century to reverse its quarterback-drafting strategy and become the incumbent dynasty of pro football. It just so happens that the QB standing in the way of more glory for KC and Mahomes is practically the only man who has successfully stopped KC every chance he's had.

Despite having serious injury issues to their offensive line last week, Joe Burrow overcame a Bills defense that many NFL experts trusted as being Super Bowl-worthy. Unfortunately for fans in KC, Joe plays the Chiefs better than he plays any other team in football. Burrow has only played one regular season game against the Atlanta Falcons, and in it he threw for 481 yards, three touchdowns and never turned the ball over while completing over 80% of his passes. Burrow has played two regular season games agains the Chiefs and somehow compiled a higher Passer Rating in those two games combined than he did in his dominating performance against the Falcons.

In the playoffs, Burrow seems less dominant against KC, with only 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in last year's AFC Championship. It wasn't Ja'Marr Chase killing KC in last year's playoff meeting, either; he only caught six out of nine passes sent his way for 54 receiving yards. It was Tee Higgins who claimed the lion's share of receiving yards that day, with 103. It was Joe's patience and ability to convert on third downs that truly killed Kansas City. 

While Joe Burrow chases Patrick Mahomes for the claim to be the league's greatest QB, Mahomes chases the all-time greats already in the history books. Otto Graham, who played in six total seasons for the Cleveland Browns from 1950-1955, is the only player in AFL-NFL history to record a higher QB winning percentage than Mahomes through at least 17 games. While Mahomes will soon claim his second league MVP award, he may also be weeks away from winning his second Super Bowl. You may already know, but it's worth repeating: the Chiefs are hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship, which is a league record. Mahomes has helped Travis Kelce become inarguably the best to ever play his position, and Mahomes has cemented Andy Reid's position as one of the five or ten greatest pro football coaches of all time. Winning this game keeps Mahomes on pace to legitimately stake his claim one day as the greatest football player ever.

All this conversation about superlatives and history books means nothing when it comes to the little things that actually decide who will achieve victory this Sunday. As much as I like waxing poetic about #15's greatness, other factors beyond his control will drastically impact who goes to the Super Bowl and who starts planning their vacation a few weeks earlier than they had hoped. A key factor to keep in mind this Sunday is Cincy's vulnerability on the offensive line due to the absences of Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa.

Perhaps Buffalo failed to expose Cincy's injured offensive line, and perhaps KC learned from that mistake after seeing last week's Bills-Bengals game. KC's defense ranks 7th league-wide in opponent quarterbacks' percentage of plays hurried, 9th in quarterback knockdown percentage and 5th in pressure percentage. The Packers and Jaguars are the only other teams in football that can claim to be 9th-best or better in all those categories. Buffalo ranges between 13th and 15th in all those categories, for the record, so maybe KC's reliance on guys like Chris Jones and Frank Clark could be beneficial to Chiefs Kingdom this Sunday.  

Last year's AFC Championship game truly came down to the Chiefs' inability to score to start the second half. With a 21-10 advantage, Kansas City punted in four out of five of their next drives to start the third quarter. The other drive in there was an interception by Mahomes. Before the end of the of the third quarter, Cincy had 24 points on the board. 

One field goal in the second half simply is not enough scoring to beat a legit team like the Bengals. Only once since then has KC failed to score seven or more in any half of football, and that came in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Colts. If KC can simply avoid going ice-cold on offense, which is something they almost never do, they should have the advantage this time.

Despite the rivalry's recent history and concern about Mahomes' ankle, I have to predict a win for the Chiefs. I have no clue how to calculate the odds to beat a team as uniquely great as the Chiefs four times straight, but let's just say it's a uniquely difficult task to achieve. Burrow is due to flinch and make a mistake that gives the Chiefs an advantage, and Mahomes is ready to go get revenge. I'm predicting a 27-24 KC victory and another chance at Super Bowl glory for Chiefs Kingdom.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.

Stidham, Vegas Seek Vengeance As Chiefs Seek Bye Week

Only the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC's #1 seed. The Raiders will once again start career-backup Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and their defense will omit Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. These changes should help make this a stress-free Saturday in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'm not so sure. Raiders fans desperately desire a rivalry here, but no true rivalry exists when the competition is completely lop-sided, and Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 in his career against the Raiders. Despite a depleted roster, the Raiders probably see this strange Saturday game as the Super Bowl for spoilers.

I still want to believe that today's game will be an easy test for the Chiefs, but KC played down to inferior teams all season long, and they only snuck past Vegas by a point in their previous meeting. Also, Stidham looked legit last week when Vegas scored 34 and took San Fran to overtime. His 77.4 QBR in that game was only matched by Mahomes once in KC's last four games. However, Mahomes' season average for QBR sits at 77.8, which is less a knock on Stidham and more evidence that KC's golden boy should earn his second MVP award this season.

I would love to predict a blow-out victory for KC, but they converted on only 22.22% of their third downs last week - the lowest percentage in the NFL in Week 17. The Chiefs aren't facing Denver's beefy defense this week, though, and the Raiders defense ranks among the NFL's bottom eight in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Maybe Stidham's more studly than I anticipated, but he is most certainly not on the level of soon-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

The Chiefs give me no peace of mind when facing subpar opponents, thanks to their aforementioned struggles against them all season long, but they also earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming those struggles almost every time. Also, Patrick Mahomes would give this team the benefit of the doubt even if the rest of the roster didn't deserve it. I'm predicting a frustrating 37-31 victory for the reigning division champs. The Chiefs, specifically the leaders on this Chiefs roster, rarely disappoint in a game of this magnitude, especially when facing such ineffectual opposition.