Mahomes Meets MVP in Monumental Playoff Moment

The ramifications of today's Ravens-Chiefs game will echo through the entire history of this sport. The best player of his generation with the best ever start to an NFL career goes on the road to face off with the soon-to-be-two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and his dominant #1 seed Ravens. I don't want to spend too much time regurgitating other people's takes and research, but much digital ink was spilled this week detailing the unprecedented nature of Patrick Mahomes' playoff track record. It's safe to say that the only man Mahomes is chasing in the history books signed a gazillion-dollar deal to provide commentary for Fox. While Mahomes fights to live up to the moniker of the greatest playoff quarterback ever, Lamar Jackson fights to shake off the narrative that he struggles most in the most important moments.

Baltimore enters this game as 3.5-point favorites at home, which looks fair when you see their season stats and impressive record. The Ravens not only defeated elite teams this season, but dominated them. The Texans, Browns, Lions, 49ers and Dolphins all lost to Baltimore by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore's defense allowed the fewest points per game while tallying up the most sacks and takeaways of any team in football - a feat that was an NFL first. This Ravens team has done everything necessary to be the best team in the league this season. How, then, can anyone predict that the Chiefs will defeat this daunting opponent?

To help answer that question, let's take a closer look at the playoff resumes of Mahomes and his elite contemporaries. After losing to KC last week, Josh Allen has compiled a 10-game postseason Passer Rating of exactly 100. He finished last week's Chiefs game with an 86.1. Lamar has compiled a 75.7 Passer Rating through 5 playoff games. For anyone scared of his impressive performance resulting in a 121.8 Passer Rating against the Texans last week, keep in mind that Josh Allen compiled a 121.9 facing the Steelers in the Wild Card round the week before he faced KC in the playoffs. Allen actually finished with a rating above 100 in three of the four games prior to Buffalo's divisional round face-off with the Chiefs.

Now, let's look at the ridiculous postseason resume for KC's star signal caller. Through 16 playoff games in his career, Patrick Mahomes has a 106.7 Passer Rating. In those 16 games, Mahomes has only finished one - that disastrous Tampa Super Bowl - with a passer rating below Lamar Jackson's average postseason Passer Rating. Jackson has only finished a single playoff game with a rating above Patrick's average playoff passer rating. That game was last week, against a Texans defense that ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed per regular season game. 12 teams also finished the regular season with more sacks than Houston, which is a serious strength for both the Ravens and Chiefs.

I mentioned before that Baltimore leads the league in sacks with 60, but the Chiefs allow the second-fewest QB sacks in the NFL. The Chiefs defense tallied up 57 sacks of their own this season - good for second-most in the league. Baltimore's ability to keep their star QB protected in the pocket hasn't been as consistent as KC's, however. The Ravens allow 2.4 QB sacks per game this season, which is exactly league-average and nearly a full sack per game more than KC's average. KC's success in pressuring opponents' quarterbacks have helped them overcome strong offenses time and time again this season.

Kansas City beat Tua's Miami Dolphins twice and allowed only 21 total points to them.  They beat Josh Allen and a surging Buffalo Bills team in the playoffs. They only allowed 14 points on offense to the Detroit lions in Week 1 without Chris Jones. Other name to fail to score more than 20 on KC includes Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. This may be more difficult than usual since underrated defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi is expected to miss Sunday's game, but Nnadi isn't the most important name on KC's injury report this week.

Offensive linemen avoiding injuries did wonders for Kansas City's ability to protect Mahomes this season. Unfortunately, the name of KC's First Team All-Pro left guard just popped up on that report. Joe Thuney won't be ready for Sunday, but the Chiefs have had success with Nick Allegretti as a trustworthy veteran replacement on the O-line. The collective power of the best coach, best quarterback and best tight end in the league should be enough to help KC compensate for that significant loss. Will it be enough to help the Chiefs move on to the Super Bowl?

In this fan's humble opinion, yes. I trust the greatest playoff quarterback of all time during big playoff moments. He's earned it. Baltimore is the best team KC will face this season, whether they win or lose today, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the best coach-quarterback tandem in the world. Mahomes is also playing with inarguably the best defense that KC's had since Patrick's debut. I'm predicting a classic overtime thriller and a 26-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I truly hope you enjoy this one with folks who love you and love football.

Dramatic Divisional Round Duel Features Faces of Football Facing Off

A game this big feels like at least two Christmases for citizens of Chiefs Kingdom such as myself. Today represents a very important page in the history book of this fine sport. We are only hours away from a face-off between two teams entwined in a memorable rivalry that pits one of the greatest quarterbacks of this era against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The spotlight for this divisional round matchup has landed, deservedly so, on Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Their stories will forever be connected, and their efforts in this game will alter the way these greats are perceived by generations of football fans to come.

In his first ever playoff road game, Mahomes is trying to cement his name in the all-time elite category, already surpassing most Hall of Fame QBs' accomplishments. Patrick is only still chasing the heights of legendary names like Montana and Brady. Josh Allen is still trying to get his first playoff win against the same guy who ended his season in back-to-back years prior to the last one. On paper, and for this season in particular, Allen is the better QB. He threw for more yards, more yards per catch and more touchdowns all while running with way more success and taking fewer sacks. Josh ranked third in regular season QBR according to ESPN, while Mahomes finished at #8. 

However, Allen is facing off with the guy on pace to be the greatest playoff quarterback in league history. That obviously should give KC a major advantage, but one position on the field doesn't choose who wins and loses in the playoffs. Buffalo ranks fifth in regular season total yards per game, seventh in rushing yards per game and sixth in total points per game. Their offense converted the highest percentage of third downs in the NFL in the regular season. Buffalo's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season and compiled the fourth-most sacks. They didn't get here by accident.

Despite Buffalo's impressive finish to the regular season and their Wild Card Weekend victory, I cannot be convinced that they're the most likely victor tonight. The Chiefs have earned my trust that they'll survive moments like this. All the guys on KC's roster who are going to the Hall of Fame deserve all the faith of the citizens of Chiefs Kingdom. I'm predicting a classic playoff thriller and a 27-21 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC's Superb Secondary Disrupt Dangerous Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend?

A uniquely frigid setting for history-making football awaits the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium tonight. Much digital ink was spilled detailing the historically cold temperatures for this Wild Card Weekend in KC, but credit goes to @SBBreakers for the tweets of the week. The original has all the details, but the main takeaways are that the Mahomes-era Chiefs are undefeated in weather below 18 degrees, and Miami is winless in their 11 games played in temperatures below 40 degrees since 2017. That's bad news for a Dolphins team that already looked pedestrian facing the Chiefs in Germany a couple months ago. I can't remember the exact temperature in Frankfurt that day, but I really don't think the wind chill was expected to dip below -15 like it will in KC tonight.

The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 that day, and numerous Dolphins currently dealing with injuries helped Miami keep that game close. Bradley Chubb strip-sacked Patrick Mahomes for a fumble on a crucial third down. Chubb's out for the season. Xavien Howard helped Miami's secondary disrupt KC's passing offense so much that Chiefs tight end Noah Gray led his team in receiving yards with 34. Howard is also unavailable for tonight's game. Miami's leading rusher in that mid-season game, Raheem Mostert, is also struggling with a knee injury that left him limited in participation in his latest practice.

One impact player on Miami's offense that should enter today's game with relatively sound health is former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, who had 63 receiving yards and a key fumble in the aforementioned November meeting with Kansas City. He's actually done more damage to KC's defense than most other elite receivers this season. The Chiefs held Philly's A.J. Brown to one catch for eight receiving yards, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to four catches for 24 and Bengal Ja'Marr Chase to 3 for 41. The numbers, and Trent McDuffie being named as a first team All-Pro, prove that the Chiefs can shut down the best weapons from any passing offense in football. 

Another key difference between today's Miami-KC matchup and the last one is the availability of Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton. The nasty weather won't help Miami's passing attack, and it will likely lead to more plays designed to safely get Tyreek the ball with room to run. In moments like this, on jet sweeps and bubble screens and whatnot, the opposing defense relies heavily on their linebackers to get to the right spot and make timely tackles. This is Nick Bolton's forte. Having him healthy today, when circumstances dictate that the opponent's offensive game plan be built to attack his position, is a highly underrated advantage for Kansas City. With his help, the Chiefs only need to perform up to their normal standard and avoid crucial mistakes in order to secure the victory tonight.

Those crucial mistakes, however, weren't so easy to avoid in the regular season. KC finished the season tied for the fourth-worst turnover differential and tied for the most offensive holding penalties in the NFL this season. Four different teams did not surpass the eight holding penalties drawn solely by Chiefs left tackle Jawaan Taylor. These kinds of things leave the door open for disappointment. I still think the Chiefs can overcome them, though. I'm predicting a memorable and gritty 20-13 victory for KC.

Rapidly Reviewing Chiefs' Likeliest, Luckiest Possible Playoff Opponents

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Los Angeles Chargers in their final regular season game this afternoon, but Chiefs Kingdom will be more focused on at least two other games taking place today. Results from the noon game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans and the night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will shape this season's playoff tournament. If Miami loses to Buffalo, the Dolphins will face the Chiefs next week in the Wild Card round. Wins from the Dolphins and Jaguars would give the Houston Texans the #6 seed and the Chiefs as playoff opponents next week. If the Jags lose and the Dolphins beat the Bills, that spot goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the highly unlikely event of a tie in the Dolphins-Bills game, the Bills become KC's next opponent. 

Miami is the only team out of these four that already punched their ticket to the playoffs. The Dolphins also have the best odds at facing KC next week. ESPN Analytics gives Buffalo a 54.4% chance to win tonight. The same formula gives the Jags a 57.1% chance to beat Tennessee. Do Chiefs fans want to see Miami in the playoffs, or should we be rooting for another team to sneak into that spot? 

I personally wouldn't fear the Dolphins or Texans too much, but all Chiefs fans should be cheering for the Tennessee Titans today. A Titans win and a Dolphins win would be the best-case scenario for KC, who would be heavily favored against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week in that scenario. Now that T.J. Watt is out with a sprained MCL, Pittsburgh doesn't have a single player that scares opponents as much as Tyreek Hill or C.J. Stroud. 

The big question is whether or not Tennessee can survive a game with the desperate Jags. The Titans score the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL, and promising rookie QB Will Levis is out today with a foot injury. Despite fighting through his own injuries lately, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence looks ready to play. Jacksonville beat the Titans by 20 in Week 10. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans as the worst offensive line in football entering Week 18, which could be bad news when facing off against Jacksonville's stud pass-rusher Josh Allen, who ranks third league-wide in total sacks this season.

So, the Titans may not get it done for us, but that's okay. Baltimore is honestly the only AFC team I would predict to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs right now, and we don't need to worry about that for at least a couple weeks. I'm predicting wins for the Jags and Dolphins, which would mean I'm predicting that the Chiefs will face the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. C.J. Stroud looks dangerous, but that's a topic for another day. Enjoy cheering for Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Tannehill today, Chiefs Kingdom. I definitely didn't have that on my bingo card this season.