KC Visits Snow-Covered Mile-High as Major Vegas Favorites

    The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos approach this Halloween on two extremely different paths. The Chiefs continue their push to be the best in football, and the Broncos continue their efforts to regain respectability. After beginning the season looking like the worst NFL defense in years, Denver just held the Green Bay Packers to 17 points 10 days after limiting the Chiefs to 19. The Broncos now face the tough task of stopping a Chiefs offense that seems to have just found its stride. Patrick Mahomes posted the highest QBR of his season last week when he threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns on the Los Angeles Chargers' weak secondary.

    Perhaps that won't happen this afternoon, seeing that Adam Schefter just tweeted a Denver forecast for 6-14 inches of snow and temperatures between 13 and 29 degrees Fahrenheit. However, since KC's highly improved defense is without one of its best players today, the nasty weather could turn into an advantage for the Chiefs. Nobody can be sure how KC's defense will function in the long-term without Nick Bolton. Drue Tranquill played well when filling in for Bolton earlier this season, but replacing the 2022 leader in total tackles is never easy. Facing Russell Wilson and the objectively subpar Denver offense, especially in bad weather, should be a relatively easy test for Tranquill. Good thing Chiefs GM Brett Veach brought Drue in this offseason. That's far from the only thing KC's big-picture decision-maker did well in order to set KC up for success this year.

    Veach deserves immense credit for building a top-shelf secondary on a budget. This KC secondary ranks in the top 10 in practically every relevant statistic, and only the veteran safety Justin Reid will make more than $2.8 million this year. That careful money management allowed enough salary cap space for signing impact players like defensive end Charles Omenihu, who just returned last week and immediately made his presence felt. This defense is the best Mahomes has ever played with, and Chiefs Kingdom has Brett Veach's drafting and budgeting skills to thank for that.

    Sure, this is a trap game in many senses, with the desperate Denver team and the crappy weather and all that. Does anyone really think the Chiefs will lose this one, though? The Vegas odds-makers definitely do not. Even past noon on Sunday, KC is a 6.5-point favorite on the road in a snowstorm. I have to agree. I'm predicting a 20-13 victory for the Chiefs and maybe a strong Bloody Mary for me while I try to forget how awful the weather will be in the Midwest for the next half of a year.

Herbert-Mahomes Meeting Makes Dramatic Divisional Duel

The 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs survived an ugly game at Arrowhead last Thursday, and they're gearing up for another tough battle on home turf this afternoon. The 2-3 Los Angeles Chargers bring a top-shelf offense into KC while the Chiefs' offense still cannot catch its stride. LA's head coach is on the hot seat, and football pundits nationwide are slowly-but-surely souring on Justin Herbert. A Chargers victory over their intradivisional nemesis to bring them to .500 would be huge for them right now. Spoiling all that for LA won't be easy, but the Chiefs have the right tools for the job.

The San Francisco 49ers allow the fewest yards per game in the NFL this season, averaging 14.5 points allowed per game. The Chiefs are right behind them with a 14.7 average. This is undoubtedly the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era. KC is currently the only team in football ranked among the top five in both yards per game and yards allowed per game. That makes the Chiefs a truly daunting opponent every time they take the field.

LA moves the ball well, but they haven't yet proven they can beat teams with strong defenses. The Chargers offense ranks in the top eight league-wide in total yards, total passing yards and total points per game. However, LA has only played one team with a defense considered elite - the Dallas Cowboys - and the Chargers only scored 17 points. KC probably won't hold Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to under two yards per carry like Dallas did, but the Chiefs continue to show that their young, athletic defense is no joke. Herbert has his work cut out for him today, and he's already proven himself to be highly unpredictable this season.

Today's game features the QBs with the #5 and #6 QBRs in football, but the gap between Mahomes at five and Herbert at six is far more vast than it seems. Herbert had a nearly perfect game against the Minnesota Vikings when he completed 85% of his passes for over 400 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. He also has posted a sub-60 QBR in three of his five games played in 2023. Mahomes has only dipped below a 69 QBR (nice) once this season, with his 59.5 last week against Denver.  Herbert has played 23.1 points below his QBR average and 26.7 points above it. Mahomes has played 13.3 points below his average and only 8.8 points above it.

I know that's a weird, semi-deep dive, but I find it informative. The consistency of play between these two QBs is miles apart, even if that unfortunately indicates that Mahomes is consistently "good-not-great" so far this season.

The Chiefs only scored 19 against a Denver defense that was allowing over 36 points per game before coming to Arrowhead in Week 6. The Broncos rank last in the league in total yards allowed per game, but the LA Chargers are the league's second-worst in that category. They allow the most passing yards per game through six weeks of the season. LA's defense allows the 10th-lowest yards per game to opponents' tight ends, which could bother a Chiefs offense that hasn't found success throwing to anyone other than Travis Kelce lately. However, the Chargers allow the second-highest Passer Rating on wide receiver targets this season and the most yards to receivers per game. Perhaps that will help KC finally find more rhythm in the passing game.

KC should win today, but I cannot predict a blow-out victory. One of the Chiefs' key issues offensively is their red zone touchdown scoring percentage dropping down to 18th in the league right now, while the Chargers rank 5th in that regard. It's hard to beat Justin Herbert scoring field goals. That's why I'm predicting a gritty, exciting 26-24 victory for KC. Insert pun about Taylor Swift and Bad Blood here to please the SEO robots - the end.

Can KC's Struggling Offense Brutalize Bitter Broncos?

    How would you feel if your boss was fired after a bad performance, then the new boss immediately calls the old boss an inept moron, but then your new boss is just as bad, if not worse, than your old one? Would you feel confident about your new boss's ability to position you for success? Can you see where I'm going with this?

    The Denver Broncos roster must feel completely dejected right now. There is no way Sean Payton makes that clubhouse healthier than your average NFL head coach. Nobody held a gun to Sean Payton's head and told him to talk down to Nathaniel Hackett the way he did. Payton volunteered his opinion that Hackett provided Denver with "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL" last season, but the Broncos are now a worse team with worse morale with Payton as their head coach. Nat Hackett now coordinates the offense for the New York Jets, the team who defeated Payton's Broncos 31-21 last Sunday.

    Revenge is sweet, and sustained success is even sweeter. It seems as if Sean Payton won't enjoy either for a very long time.

    There are positives to find if you look hard enough at Denver's season up to the this point, but they take a second to see. Denver started the season 0-2, but they only lost those games by a combined three points. Patrick Surtain II is still a legitimately great CB, and he'll be facing off with an injured Travis Kelce and a bunch of still-unproven Chiefs receivers. Russ has also improved this season, but he's still nowhere near elite.

    Last year, Wilson tied with Justin Fields for the league lead in sacks taken with 55. Only two QB's that played in more than six games compiled a lower completion percentage last season. He finished with the 10th-most interceptions thrown and the fifth-lowest QBR. Wilson's current QBR is 22nd in the NFL, and his completion percentage is 17th. Five QB's have been sacked more than Russ, and his 11/2 touchdown pass/interception ratio is one of the NFL's best. Still, these numbers indicate that Russ's ceiling is league-average at his position this year.

    KC's offense may not be firing on all cylinders, but the Broncos aren't the team to make the Kingdom fear this flaw. They're the worst defense in the league by a comfortable margin. Denver allows over 45 more total yards and over 4 more points per game than any other team in the league. Isiah Pacheco could have another outstanding game, as the Broncos also allow more than 30 more rushing yards per game than any other NFL team. Breece Hall averaged 8.0 yards per carry last week and finished the day with 177 rushing yards.

    Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes aren't losing to a grumpy Sean Payton four days after Payton got humbled by the very man he publicly insulted. They aren't losing to a Broncos franchise that hasn't beaten them since the Obama administration. They aren't losing to a team that allowed 35 points to Sam Howell's Washington Commanders, 31 to Justin Fields' Chicago Bears, 31 to Zach Wilson's New York Jets and 70 to the only good quarterback/team combo they faced, Tua Tagovailoa's Miami Dolphins. I looked at power rankings from ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and Yahoo Sports, and they all ranked the Chiefs ahead of the Dolphins. KC may not drop 70 on Denver, but they should score enough to ensure victory tonight. I'm predicting a 31-17 win and a bunch of Taylor Swift references from the broadcast crew to get them through garbage time.

After Moment of Mediocrity, Mahomes Meets Motivated Minnesota Vikings

    After two weeks of facing off with subpar opponents, the Kansas City Chiefs now head north to meet the dangerous, desperate Minnesota Vikings. KC and even Patrick Mahomes made ugly mistakes that helped keep last week's game close until the very end. How will the Chiefs respond to the eyebrow-raising mediocrity exhibited in their last performance? Improving their red zone efficiency would be a huge step in the right direction.

    KC ranked second in the NFL last season in red zone efficiency with 71%. This year, their 56% ranks 17th league-wide. That could explain the drop from first in the league in scoring last season to 9th in the league right now. Despite never yet playing up to their potential this year, the numbers indicate that even a stale Chiefs offense is top-ten. They rank in the top ten for scoring, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards. Mahomes is still top-ten in passing yards and touchdown passes, and he currently ranks fourth in QBR.

    The Vikings' offense enters this contest with the NFL's third-highest passing yards per game average and perhaps the NFL's best wide receiver. Justin Jefferson currently has the most receiving yards in the league with 543 in four games. His success isn't translating into success for Minnesota, though. The Vikings lost close games to the Bucs, Eagles and Chargers, and they just beat the Panthers 21-13 last week.The 3-1 Detroit Lions now lead the NFC North, so Minnesota needs to make up some ground soon or lose all hope of winning their division.

    It's fair for Chiefs Kingdom to be a bit scared of this Minnesota offense when KC just made Zach Wilson look legit for nearly an entire football game. Nick Bolton will be a game-time decision, but the other major pieces of the Chiefs defense are healthy. Trent McDuffie will have a long, difficult day at work, but help from Justin Reid and other pieces of KC's strong secondary should be enough to limit what the Vikings do best.

    Minnesota's defense ranks 20th in total yards allowed and 19th in points allowed, so KC's offense can probably score enough to win this game without performing at the very peak of their capabilities. Don't be too upset if the 1-3 Vikings keep this game close; they're desperate and talented, more-so than the Jets. I think we'll see a solid bounce-back performance from KC and a hard-earned 31-24 victory.

Taylor Swift Appears Live as Chiefs Face Jets, Starring Taylor Swift, with Guest Appearance from Taylor Swift

    It's a beautiful autumn day in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs are ready to maintain their new-gained momentum. After handling the Chicago Bears with no stress last week, KC faces another dysfunctional franchise with bummed out fans tonight when they square up with the 1-2 New York Jets. Zach Wilson's struggles and Patrick Mahomes' success are well-documented topics at this point, but the continued legitimacy of KC's defense is a whole new story.

    This season's Chiefs defense is the best Mahomes has ever been paired with, and so far, it's not even close. Only the Browns, Bills and Cowboys have allowed fewer points per game than KC's average of 13.3. Pro Football Focus just proclaimed that Trent McDuffie is the most effective cornerback in the league right now. Chris Jones looks like he should skip training camp every season. Missing Nick Bolton, who's emerging as a truly elite linebacker, would typically be a big deal, but not this week. Nobody in Chiefs Kingdom fears that Zach Wilson will carve KC up by exploiting this weakness. There are probably more people wondering if he'll benched.

    Bears QB Justin Fields now has the league's worst QBR after the Chiefs defense held him to under 100 passing yards and a 50% completion percentage last week. Zach Wilson is the owner of the second-worst QBR among all qualified quarterbacks. While the Chiefs now rank fifth league-wide in total yards and points per game, their opponent tonight ranks dead-last in both of those categories. Jets fans looking to spin this into something positive could argue that their team has only faced great defenses, those being the Bills, Cowboys and Patriots. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that trend continues tonight at MetLife Stadium.

    So, what could possibly make this game close? I often find myself talking about penalties and turnovers when the Chiefs face a struggling opponent because they should be the only things that could threatens KC's chances at success against subpar competition. The Chiefs drew three penalties for 25 yards last week, which was much cleaner than Week 2's 12 penalties for 94 yards in Jacksonville. While only four teams in football have turned the ball over more times than KC's six total giveaways, it's worth noting that two of those turnovers came from Blaine Gabbert garbage-time interceptions. KC and New York both have four takeaways total this year, and New York's overall differential is one better than KC's -2. Avoiding numerous costly mistakes and sticking to the same offensive game-plan that's been dominating for half a decade now should be enough to ensure success for the Chiefs tonight. 

    The Jets defense should be motivated though, and KC could have understandable psychological struggles with treating this game with the same importance as the Super Bowl. That could be enough to make this game closer and uglier than fans in Chiefs Kingdom would like. I'm predicting a 27-13 victory and a whole lot more Taylor Swift coverage whenever the broadcast crew gets bored. There, I said Taylor Swift. Does this please you, Search Engine Optimization robots? Taylor Swift? Taylor Swift.