Can Patrick's Passing Prowess Overcome Derrick Henry's Dominance?

The Tennessee Titans just shook things up in the AFC with a victory over the Buffalo Bills. This wasn't one of those weird, fluky games where crazy turnovers happen or timely penalties cost the superior team a victory. The Titans and Bills each turned the ball over just once, and Tennessee gave up 31 more yards via penalty than Buffalo did. The Titans just got the job done against a Bills team that looked, for a moment, like the best team in the conference.

This is an impressive feat, but it could turn out to be a major anomaly. Prior to their win against Buffalo, Tennessee faced four straight teams with defenses ranking no better than 20th in yards allowed per game. The currently undefeated Arizona Cardinals smoked the Titans 38-13 in Week 1, which means last week's victory over the Bills was Tennessee's only successful showing against a strong defense so far. Luckily for Titans fans, the Titans and the frontrunner for MVP will face off this Sunday with a defense that is objectively not strong, to put it kindly.

The Chiefs rank 27th league-wide in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in opponent yards per rush attempt. KC linebacker Anthony Hitchens has already been ruled out, and Chris Jones' status is still listed as questionable. That's bad news for a team trying to stop this era's version of Jim Brown. Titans superstar Derrick Henry compiled at least 110 rushing yards in each of his last five games. He's going to beat up a bad Chiefs rushing defense, and that's no hot take, but will it be enough to make up for Tennessee's own flaws on defense?

Opponents with good offenses score a lot on this Tennessee defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards and fourth-most points to opponents this season. The only two teams with winning records that Tennessee has faced this season scored at least 30 points, and so did the 2-4 Seattle Seahawks when Russell Wilson was still healthy. If Derrick Henry couldn't ensure victory for the Titans against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets, fans in Chiefs Kingdom should be excited about Patrick Mahomes' performance today. I'm predicting a 37-34 victory for a Chiefs team with plenty of concerns on defense and plenty of firepower on offense.

Will Patrick Punish Washington's Weak Pass Defense?

The Washington Football Team and the Kansas City Chiefs enter today's meeting with identical 2-3 records. I sure as hell did not predict that. I did predict that KC would ultimately come up short against the Buffalo Bills last week, but I wasn't expecting such a wide gap on the scoreboard. The key difference between last week's game and this one will be the ability of Kansas City's opponent to exploit their weaknesses.

Buffalo entered last week's game with a strong rushing attack, a studly secondary and the league's best turnover differential. The Chiefs entered that game with turnover concerns and a defense with no identity, or at least not a positive one. Buffalo reaped the rewards of these advantages and sent Kansas City sports radio into a dynastical death-declaring panic. Washington has Scary Terry McLaurin averaging 13.8 yards per catch this year, but their offense is otherwise remarkably average. Buffalo now boasts the league's best turnover differential at +11 while Kansas City drops to the second-worst at -7, but KC is one of only four teams with a differential worse than Washington's -3. The Chiefs only put 20 on the board last week against the legitimately elite Bills defense, but they should have better chances of succeeding against a Washington defense that allows the league's fifth-most passing yards per game.

If it wasn't already obvious, the problem here is not the Chiefs offense. Kansas City ranks fifth league-wide in points per game and fourth in total yards. Patrick Mahomes still ranks second in touchdown passes and Adjusted QBR while remaining top-eight in passing yards, completion percentage and Passer Rating. He's doing this while throwing as many picks through his first five games this year as he threw in either of his last two seasons.

Chiefs Kingdom should be excited to see what a guy like Mahomes does when motivated and maybe even angered by this undesirable start to the season. I'm predicting a 41-27 victory and a return to relatively clean football for the Chiefs today. Dropped passes, turnovers and penalties are topics I don't want to discuss for the rest of my life, let alone this week.

Buffalo's Strengths Present Problems for Flawed Chiefs

How will our 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs look when they take the field against the conference's other top dog? The 3-1 Buffalo Bills looked downright dominant in their last three weeks. Our Chiefs dropped two of three and made many fans wonder about their weaknesses. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, those weaknesses worth wondering about are weaknesses that tonight's opponent is built to exploit.

After losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1, Buffalo has scored 118 points and allowed just 21. They've shut out two of their last three opponents. Buffalo's offense scores the second-most points per game in the NFL. This compliments a strong defense that attacks opposing quarterbacks, which is clearly something Kansas City struggles with this season. Only three teams average fewer sacks per game than the Chiefs, and only five teams average more sacks per game than the Bills.

It's an all-around matchup nightmare for Kansas City. Buffalo's strengths can theoretically limit KC's strengths and exploit their weaknesses. The Bills rank 9th league-wide in yards per rush attempt, and nobody allows more yards per rush to opponents than our Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs are still 6th in yards per pass attempt, Buffalo has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt in the league this season. The Bills also have the best turnover differential at +7, and only four teams have a worse differential than the Chiefs' -3.

It looks bad for the Chiefs when seen from this perspective, but understanding the level of competition each team has played against alters that perspective entirely. The Bills faced off against Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Houston. The 2-2 Washington Football Team is the only team Buffalo has faced this season that has won more than one game. The Bills truly have not been tested, and the hungry, hard-to-stop Chiefs will be miles better than anyone on Buffalo's schedule so far. Kansas City, on the other hand, has played against three playoff-worthy 3-1 teams...and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Picking a winner this week is no easy task. It's difficult to determine how much the differences in each teams' schedule affect their statistical rankings. No matter who Buffalo has played this year, my eyes tell me they're a team with a strong rushing attack and secondary. Because of the aforementioned clashes of weaknesses and strengths in Buffalo's favor, I have to predict a 30-27 Bills victory. Still, it won't be stunning if Patrick Mahomes pulls of something magical and KC gets it done. I'll spend my night hoping for that magic and hoping that my predicting is totally wrong.

How Will Chiefs Respond to Early Adversity?

It took several turnovers and game-changing penalties to get it done, but our Kansas City Chiefs reacted to their disappointing defeat in Baltimore with a disappointing defeat at Arrowhead. Few expected this. Chiefs Kingdom is shaken. The space between games felt painfully long this week. Ugly turnovers at inopportune moments cost the Chiefs two out of their first three games as they faced off with some of the AFC's best, but today will be different. Today, KC faces off with a 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles team led by a talented young quarterback experiencing significant growing pains in an organization with no expectations of reaching the playoffs this year.

It's no surprise that KC is a big favorite today, but if the Chiefs let this week's game stay interesting for long, the success-hungry fans of Kansas City will consider it an underperformance. Patrick Mahomes and a motivated Chiefs team should finish today with their biggest margin of victory of the season so far, and maybe their biggest of the entire year. Philly just lost to the Dallas Cowboys by 20, as Dak Prescott completed over 80% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. Chiefs deep threat maestro Tyreek Hill only caught five passes last week and three the week before. I expect his impact on this game to be bigger than it was in these last two weeks, and I expect the Chiefs to overwhelm the Eagles with their superior offensive firepower.

What could turn this potential blowout into another nail-biter, or worse, another heart-breaking L for the Chiefs? The obvious answer is turnovers, which can ruin even the most well-crafted gameplan, but what else? KC's run defense is bad right now, and Jalen Hurts' running ability presents problems for bad run defenses. The Chiefs defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game and the second-most points per game league-wide. It's worth noting once again, though, that the Chiefs experienced these struggles while facing three of the best teams the AFC has to offer. Philly has upside, but they're objectively the worst team on paper that Kansas City has faced so far this season. Aside from the technical reasons why the Chiefs are the superior team taking the field today, there is another, more philosophical advantage that KC brings to today's meeting.

A team playing for their chance to achieve greatness becomes hungry and dangerous after facing early-season adversity. KC still has every reason to believe they can earn a bye week in the playoffs when they see the underwhelming teams currently atop the standings. The AFC's three teams with three wins are the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals. I don't believe that any of these teams that failed to finish last season with winning records will threaten the Chiefs' chances at the top playoff seed this season. Dropping to 1-3 would make reclaiming the #1 seed highly unlikely, while climbing to 2-2 keeps the chase for the bye week alive and well. This simple fact will motivate everyone in the Chiefs organization.

I'm predicting a 37-20 victory for our Chiefs today as they try to get mentally healthy before facing the Buffalo Bills next Sunday night. A Kansas City team led by Andy Reid won't overlook the Eagles; they'll simply execute their game-plan effectively enough to use Philly as their punching bag after two weeks of serious frustration.