Sunday, September 26, 2021

Will Herbert Wilt Under Wild Arrowhead Crowd?

Witnessing an elite team's adjustments after a disappointing defeat is an inherently intriguing moment in any sport. How will the Kansas City Chiefs react to letting the game slip away last week? KC returns to Arrowhead today to face a foe from within the division with a bright future and a potentially elite young quarterback.

The Los Angeles Chargers, despite my praise, also failed to win a very winnable game last week when they lost 20-17 to the Dallas Cowboys. Justin Herbert shows flashes of brilliance and has completed over 70% of his passes this season, but he's falling short of the production offered by Patrick Mahomes. Herbert has a Passer Rating of 86.1, an Adjusted QBR of 42.8 and a 7.7 yards-per-completion average. Mahomes has a Passer Rating 131.4, an Adjusted QBR of 78.6 and a 10.1 yards-per-completion average.

The promising Chargers QB has an array of worthy weapons at his disposal. A potent combo of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen could give the Chiefs defense headaches, but again, the Chargers haven't yet put the pieces together to create a consistently successful offense. After facing the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team, this Herbert-led offense averages 416 yards per game  which is fifth-highest in the NFL. Despite this success moving the ball, their average of 18.5 points scored per game is sixth-lowest.

The frightening truth for Chiefs Kingdom entering this game is that KC's defense keeps failing to perform at the same level as those in Dallas and D.C. The Chiefs defense allows the most yards per game of any team in the league and the fifth-most points so far this season. Their biggest failures have come in the redzone, where Chiefs opponents have scored eight touchdowns in eight appearances.

Today's face-off certainly seems like a good example of the old "something's gotta give" cliché. Will Herbert continue to stunt his own success with turnovers, or will KC's defense keep crumbling deep in their own territory? The results from this game will give us a little bit of both, I would guess. Look for the Chiefs to make a play or two on defense that will mostly make up for their aforementioned redzone struggles. I'm predicting an exciting, rivalry-growing 33-27 victory for the Chiefs as the Arrowhead crowd goes crazy.

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Baltimore Brings Big Injury Issues Into Week 2

The 0-1 Baltimore Ravens are dealing with a ridiculous number of season-threatening injuries, and former MVP Lamar Jackson really has his work cut out for him against the 1-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards took the lion's share of non-Lamar rushes for the Ravens last year, and they're on Baltimore's injured reserve list. This cultivates serious concern for the team that led football in rushing yards last season. Receivers Miles Boykin and Rashod Bateman are also on Baltimore's injured reserve list, while Marquise Brown and Devin Duvernay are both listed as questionoable for today's game after getting limited time in practice on Friday. That's not to mention a list of guys missing from the Ravens defense that includes edge rusher Derek Wolfe and old friend Marcus Peters. How will so many meaningful injuries affect Baltimore when they face Kansas City tonight, and how will the Chiefs take advantage?

Baltimore lost a thriller last Monday night to the Las Vegas Raiders. Another old friend Sammy Watkins and running back Ty'Son Williams helped Lamar keep the Baltimore offense moving, but the Ravens defense kept giving up big plays until it cost them the game. Vegas tight end Darren Waller looked particularly dominant against the Ravens last week, catching ten passes for 105 yards and a score. Luckily for Baltimore, the Chiefs are totally mediocre at the tight end position and have always lacked a real stand-out star. Jordy Fortson looks pretty good, I guess.

The Chiefs have concerns of their own to worry about, but it's difficult to get past Baltimore's current flaws following their loss to the Raiders and the aforementioned list of injury issues. I'm not so sure that Kansas City's potential weakness against a strong rushing attack will really doom them when they face off against a team that just let Derek Carr lob bombs to wide-open targets downfield when the game was on the line. Baltimore allowed Vegas to pile up 491 total yards on offense- the most allowed by any defense in Week 1.

Adjustments and improvements should be made to a well-coached Ravens D that ranked third league-wide in yards per attempt allowed last season. Still, if Derek Carr can throw for 435 yards on this Baltimore secondary, what's possible for Patrick? I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for the Chiefs, as Travis Kelce adds another great performance to his Hall of Fame resume and Lamar yet again looks great in defeat.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Revamped Chiefs Offensive Line Faces Tough Test in Week 1

Today, we witness an important and unprecedented change to the foundation of what makes the Kansas City Chiefs so successful. A total transformation of an offensive line for the sake of better protecting an asset this expensive has never happened. The Kansas City Chiefs acquired proven, top-shelf talent for the left side of the line, but the center, right guard and right tackle positions will all be filled by rookies.

 Lucas Niang, a 2020 third-round pick who opted out of playing last season, will join 2021 second-round draft pick Creed Humphrey and sixth-rounder Trey Smith to help protect the half-a-billion-dollar-man, Patrick Mahomes. The efficacy of this entirely new unit remains unknown despite the mostly positive reports from preseason and training camp. Today's game should prove a solid test, as even the most proven of NFL offensive lines would have their work cut out for them against this new Cleveland Browns defense.

Cleveland used their first round pick on Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II, who already impressed Cleveland so much that he leapfrogged fellow promising young defensive back Greedy Williams on the depth chart to be listed as the starter opposite Denzel Ward. Cleveland's second pick yielded an All-American and Dick Butkus Award winner in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah that should strengthen the middle of the Browns defense for many seasons to come. The Browns also added Pro Bowler defensive tackle Malik Jackson and former #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney.

All these improvements for Cleveland could make things tough for Kansas City's new offensive line, but clues to how KC's coaching staff will deal with this can be found in film on the last time these teams met. Andy Reid's cleverness helped the Chiefs overcome a disadvantage in the trenches when they faced the Browns in last season's divisional round playoff game. Pre-snap motion and moments of misdirection helped Mahomes to such success that the offensive line's weaknesses were almost completely masked. 12 of Kansas City's first 22 plays on offense resulted in first downs. This helped the Chiefs to a 16-point lead at halftime that forced the Browns into a pass-heavy offensive scheme for the rest of the game. Baker Mayfield threw a pick to start the second half, and KC went on to win, even with Mahomes injured.

Despite the upgrades for both teams, I think smart coaching will again help the Chiefs mask their weaknesses and make the most of their strengths. I'm predicting a 31-24 victory for our Chiefs over a Browns team that should bounce back well enough to earn a playoff spot again this season.