Sunday, September 24, 2017

3 Quick Predictions for KC in Week 3

The Chiefs and Chargers kick off at the StubHub Center just moments from now. Here are my three quick predictions for Week 3:

1. The Los Angeles Chargers gave up 230 yards through the air to Jay Cutler last week and 219 to Trevor Siemian in Week 1. Alex Smith has thrown for over 250 yards in each of the first two games this year. Smith will continue this success and rack up more passing yards against the Chargers than any other QB this season until Week 8, when the Chargers visit the Patriots.

2. No running back has averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry against the Chargers defense this season. Andy Reid's creative play-calling with Kareem Hunt, and possibly Tyreek Hill, will change that today.

3. The Chiefs have the 10th-highest average of points allowed per game, and only three teams have allowed more yards per game this year. This bend-don't-break stuff could come back to bite us this week. The Chargers scored 21 points against Denver and 17 against Miami, but Philip Rivers and Company could break out any week. I expect San Die-err, uhh, the Chargers, to score more than 21 today. I still predict them to lose to our Chiefs, 27-23.


Sunday, September 17, 2017

KC Can't Sleep on Eagles in Week 2

Don't sleep on these Philadelphia Eagles, Chiefs fans. It may feel like KC can't be beat after that sweet victory in the reigning champs' backyard, but the way the Chiefs and Eagles match up gives us serious potential for a wild game today.

The Eagles defense ranked 13th in yards allowed per game in 2016 and 12th in points allowed. The 2017 squad currently ranks fourth with four sacks. In Week 1, that defense held the Washington Redskins (who ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards per game last year) to just 17 points and 264 total yards. The Eagles blitz often on defense, and their offense revels in attempting deep passes. Carson Wentz' effectiveness at turning those attempts into big gains for Philadelphia will determine the Eagles' ability to stay in this game. That brings me to my three quick predictions:

1. Doug Pederson's game plan will target Chiefs CB Terrance Mitchell numerous times, and it will pay off for a disappointingly big play for Philly at least twice. KC's game plan will counter with plenty of secondary help for Mitchell when Wentz is in passing situations, but he's gonna get burnt. I can just feel it.

2. Kareem Hunt might not break records today, but he should still have a solid outing against a Philadelphia run defense that ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2016. New England, for the record, finished 3rd in that category last year, and we all know what Kareem did to them in Foxborough last week. Stopping Eagles DT Fletcher Cox from stuffing up run plays will be crucial today, but Hunt will still rush for at least 80 yards and finish the day with more than 100 yards total.

3. I think we'll see more of a shootout than Vegas predicts. Because of a greater potential for turnovers, potent passing offenses on both sides of the ball and a KC defense that will sorely miss Eric Berry and Steven Nelson, I predict a 30-24 Chiefs victory.

Doug LaCerte still kinda uses Twitter @DLaC67, and he barely, barely looks at his ole' Facebook any more.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

KC Faces Predictably Tough Task in Week 1

All the experts think the Chiefs are gonna lose tonight. You already know that. You've probably already heard that stat about how Tom Brady is 579-1 or whatever when facing AFC opponents in Week 1 home games (50-1 since 2007, actually). You've probably also heard that Andy Reid is nigh-unstoppable when given extra time to plan for his next opponent. KC looks good, but the defending champs look better than they did last season. All this adds up to something fun but predictable - a close game and a victory for New England - unless the Chiefs' defense can force enough turnovers to break the game.

How can the Chiefs blow minds tonight by beating the defending champs in their own backyard? If they can, which they probably can't, it will come down to turnovers. The sad truth for fans in the Kingdom comes when you look at last year's turnover rates; sure, our Chiefs finished tied for first place in turnover differential, but New England finished third. Tom Brady knows he shouldn't throw in Marcus Peters' direction when under duress. He knows Justin Houston is coming for him. It's just illogical to bet against the best quarterback ever, especially when you don't have a fully healthy secondary.

If KC doesn't break the game with an obscene turnover rate, or maybe some special teams chaos, New England should win by 3-13 points. Right now is a horrible time to place your #2 cornerback on the IR. Bob Sutton says it will be a team effort to fill Steven Nelson's shoes tonight, which means there isn't a perfect plan in place, which means Brady will have more ways to pick apart KC's defense. That's, uhh, not good new for the Kingdom.

Despite the reigning champions' clear advantage here, I'm mostly dismissing an overhyped element in this game. I won't put too much into the narrative of the Patriots getting extra gametime mojo tonight just because they're donning their Super Bowl rings in front of apparent archnemesis Roger Goodell. It's a tired story by this point, and whoever's returning from last year's Super Bowl-winning roster had an offseason to reflect and celebrate. If anything, this gives KC a good reason to embrace that eternal sports cliche of having that chip on their shoulders, or collective shoulder, I guess? Whatever. It's an awful cliche. Point is, the Chiefs get to be underdogs, while still being one of the 2-5 best teams in the AFC.

The Star's Sam Mellinger did well to point out that this game is a kind of blessing, in that if KC wins, holy crap, and if KC loses, nobody's devastated or shocked. The Chiefs' playoff hopes remain very strong no matter what happens tonight. If they actually pull off the improbable and beat the champs - the modern era Yankees of the NFL - on their own turf, mere moments after they receive their rings, then this Kansas City Chiefs team will reach a level of confidence never before seen this century.

That sets the stage for the Chiefs and the Kingdom, alike to embrace the "nothing to lose" mindset for tonight's game. I predict a 27-20 loss, but if this thing stays close for more than two quarters, we'll still remember it for a long time. Consider tonight's game fuel for the rest of the season, regardless of the outcome.

Doug will try hard not to neglect his Twitter account @DLaC67, but he'll definitely keep neglecting his Facebook page.