Chiefs Kingdom, today we once again reach the zenith of the football fan experience. Our Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers just hours from now to decide this year's Super Bowl champion. The stakes are at their absolute highest, and two quarterbacks who took dramatically different paths to get here are both desperate to end this part of their story in ultimate victory. We're talking about the $450-million man and the guy making $985K this season. We're talking about the guy with the best start to a career in this sport's history facing off against Mr. Irrelevant. It's one hell of a story already.
For Patrick Mahomes, more greatness is expected, because much greatness has already been produced. His career postseason Passer Rating now stands at 106.3. Since losing to Tampa in the Super Bowl, Patrick's worst performance was a 91.3 Passer Rating, which came from that loss to the Bengals that ended the 2021 Chiefs' season. In that nine-game playoff stretch, Mahomes has recorded a Passer Rating above 130 three times and completed over 73% of his passes six times. After six seasons as a starter, his trophy shelf is already full of more accomplishments than anybody not named Brady or Montana. The Chiefs have never failed to reach the Conference Championship with Mahomes as their starter, and they reach the Super Bowl 2/3rds of the time.
Nobody in football history has a resume like that. That's not bad for a guy the NFL supposedly figured out last season by masterfully reconfiguring their defense into this mysterious, complex, brand-new concept known as "Cover 2". That's not bad for a guy whose offense was deemed broken and unfixable as recently as Christmas. It feels like it's been about a year-and-a-half, but about seven weeks ago, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas Monday. That was the last time the Chiefs lost and the last time Mahomes threw a pick. That's a worthy reminder of just how low we felt (or I felt, I should say) about this team at times through the regular season.
This Chiefs offense wasn't supposed to be good enough to get them here. Some pundits thought they'd underperform in the frigid KC weather in the Wild Card Round against Miami. More thought Buffalo would finally get their pound of flesh from KC when they met in Orchard Park in the Divisional Round. Most recently, a vocal majority proclaimed with justified reasoning that Baltimore would be the team to stop KC from reaching another Big Game. Baltimore, with Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Patrick Queen, should've been the team to stop the Chiefs offense, and especially to stop them from attacking multiple levels of the field to leave Travis Kelce open. Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times, and Kelce had 11 catches for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Despite Brock Purdy's remarkable accomplishments throughout the last couple seasons, we can safely say KC has the better quarterback in today's game. I can actually see similarities in how we're viewing the quarterbacks, head coaches and defenses in this Super Bowl face-off. All three facets of both teams could be considered elite, yet the Chiefs are better in all three. San Fran's defense has been great at times this season, but they've struggled mightily in these playoffs against quarterbacks not named Mahomes and tight ends not named Kelce. San Fran's defense left them with a deficit in the fourth quarter against Jordan Love's Packers, and the Niners only regained the lead in that game with 1:07 left on the clock. They most recently allowed 31 points to Jared Goff's Lions.
While San Francisco's defense has struggled in the playoffs against teams with offenses less frightening and experienced than the Chiefs, Kansas City's defense has been excellent against teams with other elite offenses. Miami's offense dominated all season long and scored seven points on KC when playoff-time arrived. The great-but-often-overrated Josh Allen played well against KC but failed to score enough to win when he finally got the Chiefs on his home turf in the playoffs. Then, the prolific offense helmed by league MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a touchdown and a field goal in their unceremonious playoff exit two weeks ago. Teams that dedicated years of focus and funding on beating the Chiefs, teams that built themselves from the ground up to beat the Chiefs, all failed to stop KC from reaching yet another Super Bowl.
San Francisco's offense is elite by every measure. They were top-five in regular season total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. Only five teams in the league finished the regular season with fewer giveaways. Purdy had too many tight-window throws and come-from-behind drives to deserve the "game manager" tag, especially when his tendency to be aggressive betrays that more than anything else. The fact that he's a legit franchise QB should no longer be questioned, as long as his price tag remains so remarkably low. He deserves his flowers, but he also is the reason I'm predicting San Fran to lose this game.
The Niners' kicker is susceptible to mistakes, while Harrison Butker has been rock solid all year long, and San Fran racked up the second-most penalty yards in football, but I still don't think these will be the deciding factors in this game. Purdy's inability to be as magic as Mahomes will be why me and many others predict a victory for KC today. I know that's like judging a really good basketball player for not being LeBron or a really good rapper for not being Kendrick, but it's the truth. We have a reasonable expectation of Patrick Mahomes to do ridiculous stuff that keeps drives alive when they should die, because that is what he always does. Brock can have a great game and still come up short today.
Plenty of NBA teams in the '90's went up against Jordan's Bulls and suffered heart-breaking defeat. I assume they felt the way Purdy's Niners are about to feel. Sometimes you just go up against an unstoppable force and lose. That's what happened to a lot of teams in the Jordan Era of pro basketball. Now, in the heart of the NFL's Mahomes Era, it's time for Brock and his team to feel that pain. As always, I hope you enjoy this moment with people who love football and love you.
27-20, Chiefs.
