Division in Disarray as Chiefs Chase #1 Seed

Our Kansas City Chiefs won enough this year to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed with only two regular season games left. Meanwhile, the hapless Denver Broncos just fired their head coach midseason. Elsewhere in the AFC West, the similarly hapless Las Vegas Raiders just told their starting QB and two stand-out defenders to take a seat on the bench until the season's over. At least Chargers fans have a 9-6 record and the prodigious Justin Herbert to keep them hopeful. Neither the Broncos or Raiders have a head coach or a QB who has earned enough trust to give their fans a shadow of hope next season. That's gotta hurt.

It would also hurt if the Chiefs pooped the bed by losing to either one of these hopeless teams with the #1 seed still within reach. The Broncos have a -1 turnover differential on the season, which is better than KC's -5, and their defense still ranks seventh-best or higher in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Those are the only things Denver can claim to do better than Kansas City. Russell Wilson and the statistically horrible offense he leads hasn't stopped being horrible over the last three weeks, if you can believe that. Denver also has serious penalty problems, which was probably a factor in deciding to give their head coach the boot before the season was over. 

The Titans, who played their 16th game of the season Thursday, lead the league in yards lost to penalties with 917. Denver has lost 912 yards to penalty while playing one less game. The third-highest amount of yards lost to penalty is 76 yards fewer. That third-worst ranking belongs to the Raiders, by the way, who will face KC in the regular season's final week.

The Broncos need more than a different head coach if they want to beat the Chiefs while KC is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm predicting a routine 31-14 Chiefs victory that keeps their hopes for reclaiming the #1 seed in the conference alive. It feels great to be a citizen of Chiefs Kingdom, especially while witnessing two of our divisional "rivals" fail to deliver for their success-hungry fanbases.

Seattle's Struggles, KC's Concerns Collide On Cold Christmas Eve

I knew the Seattle Seahawks were 6-3 at one point, and I knew Geno Smith kept showing up next to names like Mahomes and Allen when I looked at the QB stats each week. This made me incorrectly assume Seattle was decent, if not pretty damn good, until looking into it further. The Seahawks have played 14 games so far this season, and somehow, only four of those were against teams who now have winning records. Half of them are the San Francisco 49ers. Only two of their seven victories came against teams who currently have winning records. They've lost four of their last five, including dropping games to the Bucs, Raiders and Panthers. 

Last week, Seattle suffered a predictable Thursday night defeat at the hands of the impressive San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs, meanwhile, must feel at least a little humbled after back-to-back weeks of sub-par performances against sub-par opponents. KC barely lost to the Bills and Bengals, but they barely avoided losing to the Broncos and Texans. This leaves their identity somewhat blurred at the moment, but the identity of their franchise QB should never be doubted.

Patrick Mahomes' average for passing yards in a game this season is now a full 34 yards higher than #2 in the league, Justin Herbert. Eight other quarterbacks are within 34 yards of Herbert's average. Maybe saying that Bears quarterback Justin Fields is half the quarterback Mahomes is sounds insulting, but it's actually statistically undeniable right now. It seems almost cruel to put these stats together in a sentence, but KC's QB has racked up more than twice as many passing yards per game and touchdown passes as Chicago's QB.

Comparing Fields and Mahomes feels unfair, but comparing KC's mega-star to Geno seems more reasonable. Unfortunately for Smith and the Seahawks, Geno hasn't compiled a QBR above 66 over the last five weeks. Mahomes hasn't compiled a QBR below that over the last eight weeks. That being said, Geno's season numbers still look solid, and he only plays on one side of the football. He deserves only a small portion of the blame for the Seahawks' recent problems.

Seattle scores the seventh-most points per game in the NFL, and their offense didn't exactly disappear over this recent rough patch. Over the last five games, the Seahawks average 22.8 points per game, which falls between the average points per game of the 12th- and 13th-best scoring offenses in football. Seattle's defense deserves scrutiny for the team's inability to win lately. On the season, the Seahawks give up the league's fourth-most points per game. Over the last five games, they've given up an average of 27 points per game. That's worse than any current season total of any team in the NFL. A team cannot expect to win against good opponents with a defense struggling as much as this.

The Chiefs may not seem as trustworthy as they did before stumbling through the last few weeks, but Seattle's recent struggles looked inarguably worse. I know that's a hard thing for Chiefs Kingdom to hear after we almost watched KC lose to the Texans, but a simple glance at the standings proves it. A desperate Seahawks team led by a legit veteran QB could make Chiefs fans sweat for a second this Saturday, but Seattle's inability to limit Mahomes should be their downfall. I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for KC. I know the weather will be nasty, but hey, feeling that cold sucks just as much for the defense as it does for the offense.

Oh, and here's my holiday gift to all of you: Isiah Pacheco averages 80 yards on the ground over his last six games, ever since becoming a bigger factor in the Chiefs offense due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's injury. Where I'm betting, his over/under for rushing yards this Christmas Eve is at 71. Enjoy your holiday, and more importantly, enjoy your sports and your gambling.

How Can KC Avoid Embarrassment In Houston?

Last week, the Chiefs stunk about as badly as they could stink while still winning. Today, they'd have to stink more than the worst team in football to lose, because they're facing the worst team in football. The one-win Houston Texans aren't good at very many things, so if this game turns out to be a close one, it will be because of Chiefs mistakes. Houston hung in there with the legit Dallas Cowboys last week, so KC must stay disciplined today in order to avoid a huge disappointment.

Houston deserves some credit for avoiding flags this year, though it clearly hasn't resulted in much success. Their 494 yards lost to penalties is second-lowest in the NFL. The Chiefs have lost the league's 14th-fewest yards to penalty. Badly timed penalties can make seemingly lopsided games into thrillers, but it was Patrick Mahomes' three interceptions last week that kept it close against the Broncos. The Texans picked off Dak Prescott twice last week, which kept things close in Dallas, too. 

KC's turnover differential has been disappointing all season long; only the Rams, Colts and Saints have worse differentials. There are only five teams with fewer takeaways than KC's 14. With all that being said, the Chiefs secondary are lining up against Davis Mills, who has thrown the second-most picks in the NFL in only 11 starts. Now is the time for KC's turnover stats to regress to the mean. 

KC has everything to lose today, but a win over the Texans won't have Chiefs Kingdom jazzed up or feeling like they  learned much about their team. Today's a day to just take care of business and get out of Texas with a victory. Chiefs win, 31-23, and stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. Buffalo still needs to beat Cincy and the pesky Patriots to end their regular season, so that bye-week in the playoffs could still belong to KC.

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.

I Re-Watched Last Year's AFC Championship So You Don't Have To

Last year's AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals broke every heart in Chiefs Kingdom. Selective memory made it genuinely difficult for me to recall specifics from that game, lest the thought of it hurt me all over again. I thought it would be wise to watch it one final time before this week's Bengals-Chiefs faceoff. The viewing experience gave me indigestion. 

It all started so well; KC's defense forces a three-and-out on the Bengals' first drive, then Mahomes immediately marches down the field for a first-drive touchdown. Cincy's offense begins moving the ball methodically on the next possession as the Chiefs fail to stop either Joe - Mixon or Burrow. The Bengals push deep into enemy territory, but KC's secondary disrupts two straight pass attempts to the end zone to force Cincinnati to kick a 32-yard field goal, resulting in a 7-3 score nearing the end of the first quarter.

KC responds with a 44-yard connection to Mecole Hardman on the first play of the following drive, which ends with a TD pass to Kelce. Cincy is quickly forced to punt on the next drive, leaving KC with a 14-3 lead and the ball with 10 minutes to play in the second half. Successful and aggressive play-calling immediately leads KC to yet another TD, this time to Hardman. It was five minutes 'til halftime and the Chiefs were up 18. I know what happened next, but how the hell did it happen? Just how?

Veteran running back Samaje Perine slips through some porous defense before the end of the first half for a quick Cincy touchdown. With a minute and a second, KC moves the ball swiftly with quick shots to Hill and Kelce. A pass interference call on Tyreek leaves the Chiefs with nine seconds and a 1st and Goal on the 1 yard-line. An incompletion leaves them five seconds. A completed pass for no gain to Tyreek leaves no time on the clock and a heavy sense of regret in the hearts of everyone in Chiefs Kingdom. Despite driving all the way to Cincinnati's 1 yard-line, the Chiefs failed to put more points on the board.

No problem though, right? The Chiefs get the ball to star the second half, and they're already up 11, so it's still all good. Then KC fails to get a single first down in this possession, and they punt. The Bengals offense responds to the roars of the Arrowhead faithful with impressive competence, until a Delay of Game penalty stifles the drive and forces a punt of their own.

The Chiefs start on their own 7 yard-line. They soon punt from the 25. Burrow, Chase and Mixon look frighteningly good as they march into Chiefs territory. KC's defense tightens up to limit Cincy to a field goal. KC gets the ball back with a lead and under five to play in the third. Everything should have been fine. 

On the second play of the possession, Mahomes feels the pressure of a blitz coming from his right, and he fires a quick pass to his left that bounces off the hands of another defender closing in on him. The ball bounces upward and lands in the hands of Bengals defensive tackle B.J Hill. This is the moment in my re-watching experience that I paused the video and went to grab some cookies. Not even the good kind, but the cheap ones, the off-brand chocolate chip cookies that only I seem to enjoy, even though they make my stomach ache. I only stoop to eating them when I have a particularly low sense of self worth. I returned to the video prepared to hurt myself in more ways than one. 

So now it's Bengals' ball with a little over two to play in the third. Before the fourth quarter begins, Cincy ties the game with a touchdown drive and two-point conversion. KC responds by going three-and-out.

 L'Jarius Sneed then brings the Arrowhead crowd to an unhealthy decibel level with an interception that quickly ends the Bengals' next possession. Despite all their stumbles, the Chiefs still had the ball in Mahomes' hands with a tie and under 14 left in regulation. The Chiefs responded to this opportunity by going three-and-out, as Mahomes is sacked on third down on consecutive possessions. 

A memorable third-down scramble from Burrow keeps the Bengals' next drive alive despite consistent pressure from KC. On consecutive third downs - both 3rd and 7 - Cincy's remarkable young QB uses his legs to move the chains. The bend-don't-break Chiefs defense gets a stop on Burrow's Bengals eventually, but not before Cincy gets in range for Evan McPherson to hit a 52-yard field goal that gives the Bengals the lead with only six minutes left in regulation.

Patrick Mahomes was made for moments like this. He nearly proves it with a long drive that gave KC a first down on Cincinnati's 4 yard-line. KC failed in ugly fashion to punch it in, but instead relied on Harrison Butker to tie the game with a 44-yarder as time expired. 

Overtime. KC wins the toss. Incomplete pass on first down. Another on second down that almost results in an interception. On third and 10, Mahomes goes deep downfield to Tyreek in double coverage. Bengals safetey Jessie Bates III gets a hand in between Hills' hands as Tyreek leaps up and reaches for the ball. Bates swats the pass away, and it lands in the hands of his fellow Bengals defender Von Bell. A Mahomes interception gives Burrow the ball in overtime.

The Chiefs defense cannot stop the Bengals on the ground or through the air. Burrow sets his team up for a 31 yarder. The kick is good. Mahomes winces as Burrow celebrates. Pleasantries are exchanged as Chiefs fans everywhere hold their reeling heads in their hands. Kansas City just scored three touchdowns on their first three drives of the game. The man with the best start to a career of anyone in the history of his position was one step away from the sport's ultimate stage, and he came up short. That hurt Chiefs Kingdom in a unique and unforgettable fashion.

Winning today would be little solace. This is only the 12th chapter of a 17-part story, and if that story goes well enough, KC gets to start a new and more important story when the playoffs begin. Only when the Bengals and Chiefs meet again when it's do-or-die will KC get a chance at true redemption. Consider this afternoon's game a tease of a bigger story yet to be told. With all that foreshadowing out of the way, we do have a slightly more technical topic to consider.

Burrow killed KC's defense in aforementioned crucial moments by using his legs on third down. I don't get paid the big bucks to know how to limit that, especially since Madden was enough to teach me that a QB spy strategy simply leaves a team one less defender to guard one of the Bengals' dangerous wide receivers. Whatever Steve Spagnuolo can think of to limit this will be utilized from now on, but it may be as simple as guys in the middle of KC's defense like Nick Bolton using their athleticism to close on Burrow ASAP on third down. Bolton's rapid improvement and the growth of Willie Gay should mean KC is better equipped at dealing with Burrow's scrambling skills this time.

I cannot predict a win for KC today. Until proven otherwise, Cincy has KC's number. Nobody knows how effective Ja'Marr Chase will be today after missing four games with a hairline fracture in his hip. Cincinnati is fresh off an exciting win over a solid Tennessee Titans team who also lost to the Bengals in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are coming off a yawn-inducing victory over a Los Angeles Rams team who had to start their relatively unknown third-string quarterback. I'm predicting another thriller but unfortunately another defeat at the hands of Joe Burrow. 30-27, Bengals. Don't forget, though; the real test comes in January.