Impressive Defense Improves Chiefs' Championship Chances

Major improvements to the Kansas City Chiefs defense have completely altered the way the world views this team. Don't forget that Kansas City took a losing record into November this year. They allowed each team they faced to score at least 29 points in every game from the start of this season until the middle of October. That defense put Chiefs Kingdom in a position where we wondered if KC would miss out on the postseason completely. Now, after all those fear-inducing failures, the Chiefs are a first-place 7-4 team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. After one of the worst starts to a season in the history of NFL defenses, the Chiefs' 22.7 points allowed per game currently ranks as exactly league average.

It's no surprise that it took various specific changes to make this transformation possible. Brett Veach's strategy of never overspending on cornerbacks works wonders when under-rated players like Rashaud Fenton, L'Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward avoid the injury report. The coinciding addition of Melvin Ingram seems to have ended the experiment of Chris Jones as an edge rusher for now. This decision immediately improved KC's ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deserves a ton of credit for limiting snaps for Chiefs defenders susceptible to giving up big plays. Spags also deserves praise for expanding the roles of emerging young talent like Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. The center of Kansas City's defense hasn't looked this good since Derrick Johnson's prime, and it could be key to making the Chiefs a championship contender again.

All these changes give the Chiefs a tangibly greater chance of success every time they take the field. Kansas City allowed 32.6 points per game in their first five games of the season. They have allowed 11.75 points per game in their last four. I'm aware these victories came against Daniel Jones, Jordan Love and a Dallas Cowboys team without their two best receivers. Dallas didn't have problems putting up points without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on Turkey Day, but I digress. The Chiefs' improvements on defense surely have something to do with the teams they're playing, but tests against elite teams with elite quarterbacks are rare. Without this improvement from the defense, the Chiefs probably wouldn't have this four-game winning streak, and our playoff dreams would already be dashed.

Dak's Dominant Dallas Cowboys Come to KC

Things changed quickly in the AFC West last week after the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs overpowered the Las Vegas Raiders 41-14 in Vegas. Kansas City now leads the division and seems to be hitting their stride in every facet of the game. The Chiefs move on to face the Dallas Cowboys today in a possible Super Bowl preview. KC must continue this improvement while also avoiding major mistakes in order to keep up their winning ways this evening.

Patrick Mahomes successfully moving the ball with superstars and role-players, alike was the key to claiming a comfortable victory last Sunday. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill combined for 15 catches, 202 yards and two touchdowns, but Mahomes and Andy Reid spread the wealth. Mahomes threw touchdowns to four different Chiefs, and four different Chiefs ended the day with at least four receptions. Especially impressive was Darrel Williams' nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.

KC can outscore Dak Prescott's offense today if they continue this strategy while keeping the ball out of the hands of Trevon Diggs. He leads the league with eight picks and ranks second with 13 pass deflections. It's very possible Andy Reid schemes the offense around this guy to limit his game-wrecking potential, but other gifted coaches have tried to do the same and failed.

Turnovers are perhaps a boring topic, but it's important to know that Diggs has helped his team to the NFL's 7th-best turnover differential. Even after a game with no interceptions by Mahomes and a Daniel Sorensen pick, the Chiefs still rank 29th in turnover differential. If KC just keeps the differential in today's game even, they should be able to beat one of the truly elite teams in football right now. It's time for the Chiefs to take care of business against a Super Bowl contender with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB under center. I'm predicting an exciting 34-31 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC Claim Crucial Victory in Vegas?

Our eyes now turn to the desert where the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Las Vegas Raiders in a pivotal divisional face-off. The winner here undeniably takes the inside track in the race for the AFC West. Can the Chiefs play a complete enough game to claim victory tonight? We can at least see that their defense looks up to the task recently.

This Chiefs defense held opponents to a touchdown or less in five out of their last eight halves of football. Chris Jones moving to the inside with the addition of an immediately effective Melvin Ingram made a major impact, as did the improving health of KC's secondary. Perhaps the most important recent change is the emergence of Nick Bolton and Willie Gay as trustworthy, dynamic athletes in the middle of the Chiefs defense. The presence of these capable, young linebackers will improve both Kansas City's defense and financial status for years to come.

All these improvements defensively flips this teams' identity, especially when paired with surprising struggles of Patrick Mahomes. Despite perhaps the worst stretch of football in his still-young career, I cannot expect Mahomes to be mediocre today or ever. This week is just different, not only because of the Raiders, but because of the chance KC has to take hold of their division.

Some regression to the mean must also be expected regarding the production of each teams' QB. Mahomes ranks 16th in QBR, and right behind him at 17 is Derek Carr. The Chiefs' half-a-billion-dollar man finished 2nd overall in that category last season, and Carr finished at 11th. 

Vegas has also just shown the league that they can limit the opposition's quarterback, but they also showed that it may not matter. The Raiders allowed only 110 passing yards last week while sacking the opposing QB twice and hitting him six times. Despite this, they still lost to Daniel Jones' Giants.

Like I remind myself every week, it's not all about KC's quarterback. The Chiefs should utilize their emerging rushing offense against this Raiders defense that allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season. If Andy Reid and the rest of the coaching staff can do this effectively, it should give the Raiders plenty of time to beat themselves. I predict a hard-earned 27-23 victory for the Chiefs tonight.

Will Packers Present Problems to Chiefs in Anti-Vax Aaron's Absence?

Packers fans can thank the "immunized" Aaron Rodgers for giving the Kansas City Chiefs a major advantage today, but that's not the whole story. A flawed Chiefs team that eked out a win against the New York Giants last Monday must still face a Green Bay Packers defense that just limited Kyler Murray enough to hand an L to the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals.

Green Bay ranks ninth or better league-wide in points allowed, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed per game. The Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills are the only teams the Chiefs have faced that rank higher than the Packers in passing defense. As you probably remember, both of those teams defeated Kansas City. That Packers defense will face off with a young QB with suddenly plummeting stock in the eyes of the sports media, as Patrick Mahomes is off to the worst start to a season that he's ever experienced.

His Adjusted QBR is a full 20 points lower than any season total in his career. He's one interception away from tying the combined total from his previous two seasons. He's still just a few moments away from shaking off this apprehension and getting back to being an all-time great, and I cannot be convinced otherwise. For now though, he has a lot of critics to prove wrong.

It's important (for me) to remember that Mahomes isn't the whole story every week. Kansas City's future at the linebacker position looks bright as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay are making strides in their development. That should be important when facing a Packers team focused on running the ball successfully and moving the chains with short passes, even when Rodgers is playing. The relationship between KC's alternative running backs and the new offensive line blocking for them also seems to be improving rapidly. Since Green Bay's secondary is one of the league's best, and their rushing defense is just average, KC could use this to their advantage today.

Should this be enough to help Kansas City get the job done this afternoon? I believe so. The Chiefs cannot lose this game when they're .500 and facing a quarterback in his first NFL start. Maybe Kansas City winds up being one of the best 4-4 teams ever, or maybe the flaws we've seen actually make them far closer to average than Chiefs Kingdom can currently accept. A victory for the Chiefs today still leaves us with a bunch of what-if questions, but a defeat at the hands of a backup quarterback would solidify many fears about Kansas City's many flaws.

The Chiefs are consistently losing to playoff-caliber football teams and beating below-average ones. Nobody knows with certainty what the identity of this Packers team will be with Jordan Love running the offense. He's a talented guy learning how to do his job from one of the best to ever do that job, so I expect him to play well, but he's not outplaying a motivated Mahomes today. I predict that we'll see a close game due to both Love's grooming and Kansas City's still-glaring flaws. The Chiefs should win - I'll go with 27-23 - and reclaim a winning record.

Chiefs' Flaws Fueling Fans' Fears

Everyone sees the Kansas City Chiefs differently now after they looked lost against playoff-caliber competition like the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. Certain players, coaches and management apparently at fault for these recent struggles are under the microscope now, perhaps more than ever before. A win against a banged-up 2-5 New York Giants team wouldn't quiet the rightfully loud critics, but a loss could make the playoff hopes for the once-mighty Chiefs look highly unrealistic.

Thankfully, I cannot predict that such a disappointing defeat will take place tonight. The Chiefs have taken care of the other flawed teams from the NFC East when they handily defeated both the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team. With the current Vegas spread sitting at +10 1/2, the stage is clearly set for the Chiefs to succeed tonight. Since they have a clear advantage over New York and a tough stretch of the schedule coming up next, the natural instinct to look past the Giants could be tough for KC to overcome. Does that make this a trap game for the Chiefs?

It's far from impossible. Remarkably ineffective defense and eye-catching turnover issues have conjured up more fear in Kansas City than anything Halloween can offer us. The Chiefs rank 26th or worse in points allowed per game, points allowed per play, passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. No other team in the league can make that claim. The Chiefs ALSO rank 26th or worse in total takeaways, interceptions, fumbles, total giveaways and turnover differential. These flaws make Kansas City a team that's hard to trust, regardless of their opponent.

The Chiefs are now desperate to win every game against teams on their schedule who aren't among the elite in the league because that schedule includes many more games against the teams who are. A defeat at the hands of a team that Vegas oddsmakers expect KC to beat by double-digits could theoretically take the Chiefs out of the playoffs. That desperation could be medicine or poison for a Chiefs team that's been through all the highs and lows of championship glory together and still never looked this flawed.

I believe a new sense of urgency will prove useful to this tested, veteran-heavy Chiefs roster moving forward. Regardless of any urgency-based motivation, the Giants will still line up against one of the worst defenses in football tonight. Whether that defense can improve enough to even be considered average remains to be seen. I'm not expecting all of the fear-inducing problems with this Chiefs team to disappear over a week of practice, so I can't predict domination tonight. I'll go with an ugly, stressful 30-24 victory for the Chiefs that keeps Kansas City's fans nearly as stressed as before the game began. Chiefs Kingdom knows the road to glory has just become unexpectedly perilous.