Patrick's Prolific Passing Presents Problems for Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons began the year 0-5, and after losing their last three games, they are now winless in December. Atlanta's four wins came when the faced the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. It is now impossible for any of those teams to finish this season with a  winning record. Both sides of the ball deserve blame for this underwhelming season, but what went wrong with these still-star-studded Falcons?

Atlanta continues to feed Todd Gurley II a lot, but that strategy seems to be part of their problem. None of the 10 running backs with more than Gurley's 182 carries average less than his 3.5 yards per carry. Chiefs first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire has one less carry than Gurley and averages 0.9 more yards earned with his opportunities. Establishing a consistent running game makes sense when Derrick Henry is on the roster, because that guy averages more than five yards gained when he runs the ball. When a team heavily features someone as ineffective as Gurley, they set themselves up for a whole bunch of 2nd and 9's on offense.

Kansas City also faces an underpowered Falcons passing attack, as a hamstring problem will keep dangerous receiver Julio Jones out of today's game. Calvin Ridley may frustrate Chiefs fans a few times, but the rest of Atlanta's offense pales in comparison to the wealth of talent on KC's offense. 

The Falcons struggle mightily against good passing offenses and good tight ends. The Chiefs will undoubtedly bring those things with them to Georgia today. Travis Kelce ranks as #2 in the NFL in receiving yards among all players at all positions. Kelce consistently causes chaos across the middle of the field when facing teams with weaknesses similar to Atlanta's.

Even if the Falcons play top-shelf defense, the Chiefs are prepared to overcome that. The Dolphins, Ravens, Patriots, Bucs and Saints all rank in the top eight in points allowed per game. They all lost to the Chiefs. This Kansas City offense is tested. It continuously proves itself to be nearly unstoppable, and this game represents KC's chance to secure the #1 playoff seed in the conference. With plenty to play for, a uniquely great Chiefs offense faces a Falcons defense that struggles against any modestly effective passer. I predict that the Chiefs will earn a bye week with a 33-21 victory today.

Will Mahomes Magic Lose Luster In Louisiana?

    Kansas City tantalizes viewers with the possibility of seeing an offense capable of being the best of all time, but they undoubtedly have their work cut out for them this afternoon in Louisiana. We know today's game is a potential preview of the Kansas City Chiefs' next chance at a championship, but the Chiefs still has playoff seeding to worry about, and the New Orleans Saints are well-built to exploit KC's few weaknesses. 

    The Chiefs just overcame an elite defense last Sunday, but this week's opponent is a different kind of dominant. The Miami Dolphins defense represented a unique obstacle for the Chiefs. When they forced Patrick Mahomes into throwing two early picks, it represented his worst start to an NFL game in his entire career. After forcing a fumble and another pick in the second half, the Dolphins are now tied with Pittsburgh for the league's most takeaways. The only team on KC's schedule who allows fewer points per game than the Saints are those pesky Dolphins, but Miami's averages for rushing yards, passing yards and total yards allowed are all subpar. The Saints rank fourth or better in all of those categories, and only three teams in football allow fewer points per game. New Orleans excels in the turnover department, too. Only six teams in the NFL have better turnover differentials, and only six teams have more takeaways.

    The weakest part of KC's current roster will square off with one of the strongest parts of this stacked Saints roster. David Onyemata, Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson consistently pressure opposing QB's without the need for extra blitzers. Vereran Chiefs offensive lineman Mike Remmers will miss today's game due to a back injury. Another back injury forced former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher to miss practice time early in the week, and he is currently listed as questionable. This just adds to damage already done to KC"s depleted offensive line. t's such a glaring advantage for the Saints that it almost made me predict a victory for New Orleans today. However, with studly Saints receiver Michael Thomas on the injury report and the Honey Badger on a rampage, I still give the edge to KC.

    Tyrann Mathieu brings fire and poise to this Chiefs defense that gradually galvanized them into one of football's best. That's not to mention the six interception for Mathieu, which is most among all safeties and third-most among everyone in the league. Tyrann's importance cannot be understated and will not be lost on a Chiefs fan who lived through a year of a similarly great Chiefs offense being held back by a Bob Sutton defense. Patrick Mahomes was still a fantastic quarterback that year, but our Chiefs' defensive woes will forever leave me lingering on what-ifs, because KC couldn't win it all without a better defense. The same improvements on defense that led the Chiefs to a championship last season lead me to predict an entertaining 30-27 victory for Kansas City when they visit the Saints today.

Mahomes Must Avoid Forced Fumbles To Defeat Dolphins

Today is not the day for the Kansas City Chiefs to let their guard down. The 8-4 Miami Dolphins enter this game hungry to prove themselves and add a victory over the champs to their resume. How scared should Chiefs Kingdom really be of Tua, or perhaps more accurately, of this Dolphins defense?

Starting at noon today, we'll see the #2 scoring offense in the NFL facing off against the league's #2 scoring defense. We'll also see perhaps the best cornerback in football in Miami's Xavien Howard lining up against the best deep threat in football in KC's Tyreek Hill. Facing off against an excellent secondary could translate to big games for Chiefs pass-catchers that aren't playing the role of #1 and #2 wide receiver. That means the effectiveness of Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman could make or break the Chiefs offense today. While elite talent forces the Chiefs to adjust their offensive scheme, a history-changing global crisis will alter Miami's plan on offense.

COVID-19 is sadly blame for Miami's serious disadvantage against our Chiefs today. Said virus rendered two of Miami's three top running backs unable to play, and the third is sidelined with a shoulder injury. That clearly gives our Chiefs a major advantage in the hours to come, but this Dolphins team wins games they should not. Miami's Week 8 win over the legit Los Angeles Rams is my main piece of evidence.

Rams pressure forced a Tua fumble early in this midseason meeting that came after Miami's bye week and represents the beginning of the Tagovailoa Era for the 'Phins faithful. A Jared Goff pick shortly thereafter gave Miami the ball and good field position, and this led to Tua's first career TD pass. Then, with the game still tied, Myles Gaskin fumbled on first down within 10 yards of his own endzone. This definitely doesn't sound like the description of a game that the Dolphins won by multiple possessions, but it happened. Miami's defense forced four turnovers from Jared Goff, and Jakeem Grant ran back an 88-yard punt for a Dolphins touchdown. Every Dolphins drive in the second half of that game resulted in a punt, yet they beat the Rams by 11.

The Dolphins had a healthy Gaskin and a healthy Matt Breida that day, but Tua and that tandem combined for only 60 rushing yards. It wasn't a strong running game that helped Miami defeat one of the league's best that week. Turnovers were the reason Miami pulled that one off, and they're now tied with three other teams for the fourth-best turnover differential in the NFL. KC's +11 differential ties them with Pittsburgh for the league's best. Enjoy the fact that the Chiefs' trajectory still points to greatness, but prepare yourself for a close game today.

Prepare to be upset when Tua scrambles and makes plays by exploiting the Chiefs' imperfect core of linebackers. Prepare for impressive pass-catching tight end Mike Gesicki to frustrate the entire Kingdom by helping Tua do so. I think that duo will be enough to keep things competitive today, but I also think a well-prepared Chiefs team should beat these Dolphins more often than not. I predict a hard-fought 30-24 victory for the Chiefs. If Miami's new golden boy at QB is the real deal, this will serve as only Scene 1 in the long, enjoyable story of Patrick vs. Tua.

Can KC Handle the Broncos and their Bruised Egos?

Only the New York Jets average fewer points scored per game than the Denver Broncos. The only team with a loss to Denver this year that currently has a winning record is the Miami Dolphins, who were sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the time. After our Kansas City Chiefs took care of business last week against a playoff contender in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this week's competition won't exactly incite mass panic in Chiefs Kingdom.

We shift now from watching an all-time great trying to keep up with Patrick to watching a remarkably ineffective player trying to avoid embarrassment. Yardage, completion percentage stats and various forms of quarterback rating all infer that Drew Lock is one of football's worst starting QB's. The blame falls less on this 24 year-old and more on the coaching staff failing to maximize his potential, but the Chiefs won't feel sorry for taking advantage of those failures tonight.

That coaching staff would be wise to build a gameplan involving lots of running the ball for the Broncos. To beat the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes is on his A-game requires a team to score more than 50, and I don't know if the Broncos will score more than 20 tonight. This means the best chance Denver has, unsurprisingly, is to dominate the time of possession battle with a successful rushing attack that keeps Patrick and his lethal offense off the field. Unfortunately for Broncos fans, Denver enters Week 13 with the fifth-lowest time of possession average in the NFL.

Oddshark has the spread for this game at 13.5, but perhaps pride will stop Denver from looking quite that awful today. I still predict a relatively comfy 31-20 victory for our Chiefs to get everyone ready for a tough road trip that includes meetings with the Dolphins and Saints.