Even With Flaws, KC's Defense Is Elite

Your Kansas City Chiefs just earned their spot in the driver’s seat to a first-round bye in the playoffs, but which aspect of this team will be remembered for getting them there? After seeing your Chiefs bailed out time after time by a turnover or a crucial 3^rd-down stop, is it really a question? The stats could dissuade you at first glance, but the defense in Chiefs Kingdom is elite.

Don’t let the league’s 27^th-ranked yards allowed per game fool you; only seven teams allow fewer points per game than Kansas City does, and six of those teams are playoff-bound. Despite not forcing any turnovers last Thursday against the Oakland Raiders, KC is still tied for the most takeaways in the NFL this season. KC's efforts against some of the league's best QBs prove that the defense stays stout when it's needed most.

Drew Brees currently commands the highest-ranked offense in football, but the Chiefs held the Saints to 6.5 points less than their current average. KC held Andrew Luck and Indianapolis to 11.2 yards below their current average. The Chiefs also held Matt Ryan and his outstanding Falcons offense to 12 points in the second half to sneak away with an overtime win in Atlanta. KC's defense limited Cam Newton, the reigning offensive MVP, and they humbled the former MVP front-runner Derek Carr by handing him an embarrassing loss at a crucial moment in the season. Twice.

Our Chiefs already played the teams who rank first, second, third and fourth in average points per game. The New England Patriots are #5. How's that for foreshadowing?

We can’t look too far ahead, however, as the Tennessee Titans could threaten our chance for playoff football at Arrowhead Stadium this year. It will continue to be painfully cold in KC tomorrow, and the Chiefs’ inability to stop the run makes Tennessee an opponent that should be taken seriously.

The Titans rank 3^rd league-wide in rushing yards per game, while only five NFL teams allow more rushing yards per game than Kansas City. Only one of the teams worse at stopping the run than KC – the Denver Broncos – has probable odds to reach the playoffs. Tennessee is the best running offense the Chiefs will face this regular season, making Andy Reid and Company’s extra days of game-planning even more beneficial.

The mega-cliché of the “bend-don’t-break” defense will be tested on icy Arrowhead turf tomorrow, but our 2016 Chiefs consistently pass tough tests. It’s gonna be ugly, again, but I believe KC has the big-play potential – even in nasty conditions – to sneak away with another victory. I predict yet another gritty, hard-fought victory for KC. The good guys will win, 20-16, and we’ll all feel a little bit warmer here in Chiefs Kingdom. I hope.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers he has a Twitter @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.

3 Incredible Week 13 Performances, How to Beat Oakland in Week 14

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan pass to 81-A.Hooper is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-E.Berry intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

That's how it looks in the official scoring summary for last Sunday's game in the Georgia Dome, but the video takes us a step closer to understanding the uniquely grand moment Chiefs Kingdom just experienced. Let's take another step back and try, before moving on to Raider Hatin' time, to appreciate that historic moment, as well as others that made this last exhilarating KC win possible.

The Chiefs needed at least three incredible performances to claim their second-straight win over a playoff team in unlikely, nail-biting fashion. The first and most ESPN Films-worthy performance of the week came from Eric Berry. Upon returning to his home turf in Atlanta for the first time since traveling there for chemotherapy treatment, Berry changed the game with a pick-six moments before halftime and a late-game pick-two that stood as the Chiefs' one-point margin of victory.

Despite the purely poetic eight points put up by Berry, KC still needed help from their offense. Actually, the Chiefs are scoring about half their points via special teams and defense, but every team needs their offensive playmakers to make plays on occasion. A 418-yard, 28-point day for the Falcons offense made a solid game from KC's offense essential. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Alex Smith played perhaps his most complete game of the season.

The #2 and #3 incredible individual performances from last Sunday's win go hand-in-hand, as Smith and Travis Kelce spent the afternoon playing like the planet's best tight end-QB duo. Kelce caught eight of Alex's 21 completed passes and accounted for 140 of Smith's 270 passing yards. Criticism of KC's franchise QB has been so heavy, so recent and so justifiable that it makes his stellar performance last week feel almost surreal. Kelce's output, although impressive, looks much more believable, especially when measured by his recent success; this is his third-straight game with over 100 receiving yards. Tonight, in the bitter cold of a Kansas City winter that just arrived in earnest, short passes to Kelce could be the Chiefs' bread and butter.

This one could be ugly, but mostly for the right reasons. If you haven't heard, it's expected to be brutally cold at Arrowhead. Wind chill is expected to range anywhere from five to 15 degrees Fahrenheit for tonight's game. I'll just leave this tweet here...

Derek Carr in 3 road games in temps below 50
DEN '14 18/36 158 YDS 1/1
DEN '15 12/29 135 YDS 2/0
KC '15 21/33 194 YDS 1/1
52% CMP 4.96 Y/A

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) December 6, 2016

Okay, those cold-weather numbers come against two stout defensive teams in the Broncos and, you know, our Chiefs. With that in mind, I still don't know how well Carr or the vast majority of quarterbacks can fare in this certain context. It's tough to envision anybody playing well in a road game in the record-breakingly raucous Arrowhead Stadium in temperatures well below freezing against a 9-3 Chiefs team coming off back-to-back stunning, swag-inducing comeback victories over playoff contenders. He may still become the MVP, but Carr will be an underdog at Arrowhead tonight.

The chilly weather could limit both team's passing attacks, but it won't make stopping the run any easier on Kansas City. Oakland enters Week 14 with the NFL's seventh-highest average for rushing yards per game. This is the highest-ranked running game on KC's regular season schedule. Oakland's defense should see a lot of Spencer Ware, too, which means a constantly running clock will limit snaps and make this more of a lower-scoring affair than if it were played in Oakland today.

Unpredictable play from Kansas City's offense also helps to make this game, well, unpredictable. After three weeks of scoring less against their opponent than the average points allowed by that opponent, KC scored more than that average in their last two games. It's hard to know which Alex Smith will show up tonight, but he and the rest of the offense seem to be trending in the right direction, especially with Jeremy Maclin now finally healthy enough to play.

I don't know if it'll be another timely interception from KC's secondary, a game-changing feat of athleticism from Tyreek Hill or a "welcome back, J-Mac" touchdown that will seal the victory for our Chiefs, but I still predict them to win a gritty nail-biter, 23-17. I really hope I can keep this as my desktop background for a while longer.

Doug LaCerte mocks the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses Facebook.

Week 13 In The Georgia Dome: Why KC Can Win

Your 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs just defeated the Super Bowl champs, but they’ll be the underdogs again today. According to Oddsshark.com, the 7-4 Atlanta Falcons need four or five points to cover the spread at the Georgia Dome this week. As I did my homework for this important meeting between two playoff teams, a trend quickly made itself apparent; the reasons why KC “should” lose this game all boil down to the coaching staff.

The Chiefs need a plan to limit Julio Jones’ effectiveness, but local media won’t let me forget that Bob Sutton’s defense never changes. Marcus Peters can shut down half the field on most plays while Jones lines up and attacks whichever part of the field the Falcons prefer at the moment. Atlanta is the league’s worst passing defense, yet we all know about Andy Reid’s stubborn and sometimes-stupefying play-calling on offense. That’s not to mention our struggling franchise QB. Then we have the injuries to not only the team’s best receiver but also one of history’s best running backs. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs to win this week. I’m still doing it.

KC’s stellar defense matches up today against the highest-scoring team in football, as KC’s recently-ugly offense faces a mediocre Atlanta defense. Last week, the Chiefs took an injury-riddled defense to Denver and won against one of this era’s greatest defenses. KC played a ridiculously incomplete football game and still managed to beat the Super Bowl champs at their house. The Chiefs needed all the tremendous help they got from the special teams and defense in order to win last week, but there’s reason to believe they’ll have more game-changing moments going forward.

Leading the league in turnover differential is not a fluky way to a winning record when those turnovers are clearly caused by a certain defensive strategy. Peters won’t stop jumping routes for picks, even if it means he gets burnt for it on occasion. A healthy combination of Justin Houston and Dee Ford, with some Tamba Hali sprinkled in, should consistently provide enough pressure to force mistakes from opposing QB’s. It’s simple when you read it here, sure, but Bob Sutton’s job is to complicate things for the coaching staff on the opposite sideline. Numerous game-changing moments like Eric Berry’s pick-six in Carolina prove that Sutton is doing so successfully. Maybe, to an extent, he doesn’t change the defense up because he shouldn’t.

The numbers indicate that Julio Jones can catch roughly a thousand passes today and still not ensure victory for Atlanta. Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders beat up on Phillip “now synonymous with toast” Gaines and the rest of the Chiefs secondary for 162 yards last week. You may remember that Denver was unable to win that game. Oakland’s Amari Cooper caught 10 passes for 129 yards while KC destroyed the Raiders in Week 6. Saints receiver Michael Thomas had virtually the same numbers against the Chiefs while KC handled New Orleans in Week 7. When a good receiver gets hot against the Chiefs, he’ll make his fantasy football owners happy, but it doesn’t spell disaster for Kansas City.

I know it undoubtedly sounds cliché, but the league-leading +14 turnover differential for your Kansas City Chiefs is a huge part of their identity, and a huge part of why they can win today. Especially after I described a team without an identity earlier this season, not mentioning turnovers would be simultaneously unsound as a journalist and stupid as a Chiefs fan trying to predict the outcome of this huge game.

The realistic chance of a KC win should give all Chiefs fans good vibes today, especially since this is the most “okay-to-lose” game of the season. It’s only a 16-game regular season, so there is never a loss that doesn’t sting, but you know what I’m sayin’.

Once I get another real writing gig, I’ll never get the chance to end a paragraph with “you know what I’m sayin’” again, so I’ll just leave it at that. Chiefs win another thriller, 26-23, and my emotional hangover continues.

Doug LaCerte tries using Twitter @DLaC67 all the time, but typically forgets about it until Sundays. He also still has Facebook.

Do KC's Injuries Spell Doom In Denver?

An intense divisional rivalry returns to Mile High Stadium tonight, when your 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 7-3 Denver Broncos. This is the first time KC traveled to The Centennial State since pummeling the Broncos 29-13 over a year ago. Despite being two of the NFL’s best teams, neither team in tonight’s game is getting positive production from their quarterbacks.

Alex Smith hasn't looked like a legit franchise QB since he faced the defensively inept New Orleans Saints in Week 7. In fact, Alex only looked "good" in three, maybe four of KC's 10 games played so far this season. Smith went 17 for 24 against the Saints for 214 yards and 2 TDs without throwing a pick. In the week prior, he beat up the Oakland Raiders in Oakland with a 19/22, 224-yard performance that broke the franchise record for single-game completion percentage. In Week 3, Smith helped KC take advantage of a billion Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers by completing 25 of 33 passes and earning 237 yards through the air.

We can also include his comeback performance against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1, when Alex threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns to overcome a huge deficit and lead KC to a 1-0 record. That's four games out of 10 in which your franchise QB looked average or better. Even with a few flashes of brilliance, Chiefs fans can't help but wonder if Smith is good enough to ever win them a Super Bowl. No team has won a Super Bowl with a subpar quarterback since- wait, never mind.

It can be done, but winning the Big Game without a good/great QB requires an excellent defense. When Kansas City brings all their defensive starters to the field, that's what they have. Sadly, the Chiefs enter this game without many of their most important defensive pieces today, which makes winning in Denver a tough bet. Jaye Howard, Dee Ford and Steven Nelson are out today, while Marcus Peters, Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are still listed as questionable. That’s one or two starters at every level of the defense that won’t be playing today. I tried mightily to sell myself on a Chiefs victory tonight, but it doesn’t seem likely.

In order for KC to win tonight, Smith needs to outperform Trevor Siemian. If not for the Chiefs’ current injury issues, I’d say that’s possible, if not likely. Both quarterbacks are similarly unimpressive at this point of the season; Smith ranks 26^th league-wide in yards-per-game, while Siemian ranks 28^th. Alex seemed to miss his Captain Checkdown moniker after impressing many Chiefs fans through Week 7, because he’s recently returned to that pointless short-pass style in a major way. Only six starting QBs have a higher completion percentage than Smith’s 67.2%, but 22 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts have a higher yard-per-catch average than Alex’s 6.9.

Things could get ugly if KC’s patchwork defense allows Siemian to get comfortable. If Denver’s young QB gets enough time in the pocket to consistently find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, our Chiefs are in trouble. Thomas and Sanders both have over 50 catches, over 650 yards and average over 12 yards per catch. I have to predict a 20-13 loss for our Chiefs today, but it wouldn’t be too disastrous. I’m always stoked for a game against a division rival, but I’ll be even more excited to see KC face the defending champs with a healthy defense. A loss for our Chiefs today won’t be the end of the world, but a loss for the Broncos could really send them scrambling. That would be delicious, but not absolutely necessary for a strong KC playoff run.

Doug LaCerte definitely still uses Twitter @DLaC67, and kinda still uses Facebook.

Why Chiefs Fans Are Thankful Through Week 10

Welcome to being a fan of the best team in the league that experts refuse to call elite. How's it feel? For me, it's a lot of worrying about our Kansas City Chiefs only being good enough to get to the playoffs and disappoint yet again, then a lot of just trying to relax and appreciate this remarkable team that's good enough to give us all those worries. Since now’s the time for giving thanks, we’ll stay positive today and look at unique statistical breakdown that should make all Chiefs fans feel thankful.

The 2016 Chiefs defense consistently limits opposing teams to less than their average points per game. Just take a look at the points scored by KC’s opponent’s this year/that team’s current average points per game (and how they rank league-wide in that statistic)*:

San Diego Chargers – 27/29.2 (3)

Houston Texans – 19/17.9 (29)

New York Jets - 3/17.9 (28)

Pittsburgh Steelers – 43/23.8 (15)

Oakland Raiders – 10/27.2 (5)

New Orleans Saints – 21/29.4 (2)

Indianapolis Colts – 14/26.6 (7)

Jacksonville Jaguars – 14/19.3 (27)

Carolina Panthers – 17/24.6 (12)

*It should be noted that I omitted Thursday's game to keep things even.

So, KC has already faced three of the five highest-scoring offenses in football. The Chiefs won each of those games and held their opponent to less than their current points-per-game averages. KC hasn’t allowed a team to score higher than their current average since October 2nd, when they looked awful against Pittsburgh in Week 4. The only two times they allowed a team to score more than their current average (at Houston and at Pittsburgh) coincide with the Chiefs’ only two losses. Kansas City keeps winning in spite of their franchise QB, but they’ve proven their ability to win against any team not considered top-shelf.

What’s arguably more important than KC’s currently-firm grip on a ’16 playoff berth is the promising future of this Chiefs defense. Dee Ford continues to lead the league in sacks and make me feel dumb for counting him out earlier this season. Marcus Peters is still on pace for the most interceptions in NFL history, and continues to make ridiculous, game-changing plays. Chris Jones looks like he could become great, or at least good enough to replace Dontari Poe if the Chiefs can't afford to keep them both. I'm not saying KC will make a Super Bowl run year-after-year, but the Chief's shouldn't be bad for a very long time.

Now that (*long sigh*) is definitely something we should all be thankful for. By the way, if the Chiefs shared Thanksgiving dinner together, who do you think would carve the turkey? Does Andy Reid let Alex Smith do it? Maybe they'd hold hands around the knife and carve it together? Sorry, I'll stop. Have a great Thanksgiving.

Doug LaCerte's favorite Thanksgiving side-dish is oyster casserole, and if your family doesn't make that, man, you're missing out. He also has Twitter and Facebook.

AFC West's Best Faces Defending NFC Champs

Our Kansas City Chiefs found a way to avoid losing against a considerably lesser opponent last week, but in just minutes, the Chiefs face the defending NFC champs. We know Kansas City won't win all the games they "should", but they "should've" lost against the Jags last Sunday. The Chiefs earning a win in ugly fashion, and without many of their most important pieces, stands as evidence that KC is legit. However, fans can't take too much from a victory against such an inferior team. We can rest easy knowing they snuck away with a win, but it wasn’t a pretty moment for the Nick Foles-led Chiefs.

The cellar-dwelling 2-6 Jaguars dominated Kansas City in practically every important statistic, except for the stat that matters most - turnovers. Chiefs reporter BJ Kissel pointed out that during this four-game winning streak, the Chiefs never turned the ball over, and the defense forced 10 turnovers. Since the last time KC turned the ball over, the Denver Broncos have lost two games and given up the ball seven times. So, who's the best team in the AFC West?

I think it's the Chiefs, but man, it's close. The Oakland Raiders proved...something by beating up the Broncos last Sunday night, but I still don't think they proved they're as legit a team as the Chiefs. If anything, the Raiders only proved that Denver is less-daunting an opponent than I assumed.  The incredible softness of Oakland’s schedule and a commanding KC victory in The Black Hole tells me our Chiefs are the cream of the crop in the NFL’s best division. The extremely impactful emergence of Dee Ford could be the biggest reason why.

After myself and many others deemed him a bust, Dee Ford may end up helping KC reach a Super Bowl this year and solidify their defense in years to come. Thinking about this new-and-improved Ford opposite a fully functioning Justin Houston is enough to give me goosebumps. If Houston looks like himself shortly after returning to play this season, watching this duo will inspire confidence and make the diminishing production from Tamba Hali much less sad. Only six QBs in the league have been sacked more often than Cam Newton, so Ford’s contributions today could decide KC’s status in the division (for now).

On the other side of the ball, Carolina ranks 4^th in sacks, and their front seven consistently stifles their opponents’ running game. KC ranks 27^th in rushing yards allowed, while Carolina ranks 3^rd. Spencer Ware is back in action now, and the Chiefs need him to succeed against a dominant defense in order to successfully control the clock in Carolina today.

Turnovers, or a lack thereof, will ultimately decide this game. Carolina owns the NFL’s 5^th-worst turnover ratio, while KC has the league’s best. If the Chiefs continue on this pace, they’ll have a good chance at a win today, but it won’t be easy against a Panthers D that looks more daunting with every stat I read. Without the ability to manage the game by successfully run the ball, Andy Reid’s offensive game plan often goes haywire.

I’m predicting a 24-17 defeat for our Chiefs this afternoon, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see KC win. If they make me look stupid (won’t be the first time) and come away with a nice road victory, our Chiefs will be a bona fide first-place team for the first time this season. That would be something to be thankful for, but hey, let me save my corny Thanksgiving material for next week.

Doug LaCerte enjoys insulting the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he's still ignoring friend requests from numerous family members on Facebook.

3 Ways to Avoid Losing in Week 9

Our Kansas City Chiefs passed the halfway point of their schedule with a commanding victory last week, and the Vegas books expect another win for KC today. The Jacksonville Jaguars don't incite fear in many NFL locker rooms, so this week, the Chiefs' focus presumably rested less on how to win today's game, and more on how to simple not lose. KC just spent their week game-planning for a subpar opponent without their franchise QB or their two best running backs, but our Chiefs will once again have the advantage today at Arrowhead Stadium. A combination of KC's confidence and Jacksonville's ineptitude place’s the Chiefs’ focus less on winning today and more on letting their opponent lose.

The Jags beat the 1-5, Brian Hoyer-led Chicago Bears in a 17-16 Week 6 stinker. They also managed to beat the Indianapolis Colts by 3 points in Week 4. That is the unabridged list of victories claimed by Jacksonville this season. A disappointing loss lurks somewhere in Kansas City’s soft schedule. It's inevitable, but I don't think it's happening today. Here are three ways KC can avoid losing to the Jags:

1. Spread the ball around - Only seven NFL teams hold their opponent to fewer passing yards per game than Jacksonville. Despite that, only six NFL teams give up more points per game. We can expect conservatism from the Chiefs, but that won't necessarily translate to constantly running the ball. Without Spencer Ware or Jamaal Charles, KC will often defer to short passes and screens today. Successfully spreading the ball around to the healthy, trustworthy options will be what gives the Chiefs enough points to advance to Week 10 with another win. If Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley all finish the day with at least two catches, KC will have done enough offensively to once again avoid losing to an inferior team.

2. Put pressure on Blake Bortles - KC's +9 turnover ratio is second only to Minnesota's +11. Jacksonville ties with the Jets, who allowed 8 turnovers to KC in Week 3, for the league's worst ratio at -8. Only two QBs in the NFL have more interceptions than Bortles' 9, and he's been sacked 17 times through seven games. D.J. White is KC's only injured piece on defense, so the Chiefs should have fun attacking Bortles. If the emerging pass-rush for KC can raise their team average of 5.4 QB hurries per game, they'll limit Jacksonville's offense enough to ensure victory today.

3. Avoid disaster - The safest bet of the day may be for KC to improve that aforementioned turnover ratio, but it isn't necessary for a Chiefs win. The Jags defense will surely be on the lookout for moments to make a game-changing play, and they need more than just one to give themselves a chance to win. The Chiefs' only two losses came in the only two games when they turned the ball over twice or more. If the Jags can't force two or more turnovers today, you guessed it, Chiefs win, and we're on to Carolina with a kinda-sorta-tie for first place in the AFC West.

Doug LaCerte tries to use Twitter @DLaC67, and he's still on Facebook.

Chiefs Reach Week 8 Without Sense of Identity

This season's lack of wins against a “good” football team forces me to wonder about the identity of the 2017 Kansas City Chiefs. KC's a top-ten team according to power rankings from NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, ESPN and CBS Sports, but where's our signature win? I guess the Chiefs' most impressive victory so far was their Week 1 comeback against the last-place, 3-4 San Diego Chargers. That comeback gave both fans and teammates confidence that Alex Smith could elevate this offense when KC needed him most. Sadly, Smith then went on to score 14 points or less in two of KC’s next three games.

The offense has rarely been a total disaster, thanks to Spencer Ware's weekly Pro Bowl-caliber contributions, but rarely has it looked fully operational. KC ranks 19th league-wide in total yards per game, 17th in points per game and 14th in turnover percentage. They epitomize "average offense.” Bright sides include the 3^rd-least-penalized offense in the NFL and a +7 turnover ratio that ranks 4^th, but limiting mistakes alone doesn’t automatically make you great, or even good.

We can’t forget about the Oakland Raiders looking like a cellar dweller against our Chiefs in Week 6, and some may justifiably consider that KC’s greatest accomplishment of this youngish season. The Raiders aren’t half as legit as their 5-2 record would indicate, so I respectfully disagree. Oakland hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record, and they won three of those five games by 3 points or less. At least the Chargers can say they beat the Broncos in Week 6.

KC has four more games coming up against teams currently below .500. Each Sunday presents its own set of challenges, the Chiefs can't sleep on any of these hungry football teams and blah blah blah all those other clichés you’ve heard about "any given Sunday". That being said, KC won't be underdogs again until Week 12 when they travel to Colorado. That means the Chiefs could realistically reach an 8-2 record without defeating a “good” football team.

I wish I could say this upcoming game will give us some answers, but it looks like rinse-and-repeat (-and-repeat) for KC in Week 8. Oakland and New Orleans had several obvious similarities, and we can draw apparent parallels between the Saints and Indianapolis Colts, too. SI's Chris Burke even referred to Indy as "the AFC Saints" in his latest power rankings. So, for the third straight week, KC faces an opponent with a dynamic passing offense and a porous defense. They can still reuse much of the gameplan Andy Reid designed during the Week 5 bye. That alone would make the Chiefs a Vegas favorite this Sunday.

So, what is this team’s identity? When you think of this year’s Chiefs, what comes to mind? I’ll answer my own question with another question: is it a cop-out to just name the most outstanding players on the team? I definitely envision Marcus Peters picking off infuriated QBs while Spencer Ware blasts through opposing defenses, but a team identity rises above individual pieces. Due partly to their lack of a signature win this season, and despite being a top-ten team in the NFL, KC doesn’t have that. Losing is the only thing that can change the Chiefs’ identity until November 27^th, when they face off with the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.

Doug LaCerte tries not to neglect his Twitter account @DLaC67, and he occasionally still uses his Facebook page.

3 Must-See KC Week 7 Matchups

Man, I just can’t whip up the disdain this week for the visiting 2-3 New Orleans Saints like I did for Oakland in Week 6. It’s to be expected I guess, as the Raiders are organically fun-to-hate, while Drew Brees is just, like, a great guy, you know? I still want him picking Arrowhead Stadium turf out of his facemask after each of the 30 painful sacks he suffers today, but you know, a really awesome guy. So, putting aside today’s fundamental matchup of Brees vs. each member of the Chiefs defense, let’s take a closer look at three must-see matchups:

Marcus Peters vs. Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks is one of just five guys in the NFL with more than 13 catches and an average yardage per catch over 17. Only two players have a higher average and as many receptions as Cooks' 17.1 yards and 25 catches. I already predicted that the good guys would win today if KC's star cornerback Marcus Peters manages to pick an errant Brees throw to keep the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. However, if any type of receiver can exploit Peters' all-or-nothing playing style, it's a guy like Brandin Cooks (especially when a guy like Drew Brees is throwing the football.)

Alex Smith vs. Cameron Jordan

The Saints enter Week 7 with injured players on every level of their already-ineffective defense. This puts even more pressure on the few New Orleans defenders who consistently contribute, such as linebacker Cameron Jordan. This two-time Pro Bowler and member of the 2015 All-Pro Team needs to slow KC's offensive down without much competent help around him. Slowing down Alex Smith and Company at Arrowhead seems like a tremendously tough task for Jordan or anybody else after last week's remarkable performance from the Chiefs offense.

Alex Smith's incredibly efficient game against the Raiders is still the talk of the town, and many Chiefs fans can't help wondering aloud whether or not he can repeat it, or at least build on it. KC doesn't need him to complete north of 85% of his passes again in order to beat the 2-3 Saints. The Chiefs just need Smith to convert at key moments against the NFL's second-worst defense. Only a top-tier talent like Cameron Jordan should get the chance to stifle Alex's mojo today.

Spencer Ware vs. Craig Robertson

Okay, so the last matchup technically wasn't even a matchup. To be clear, Eric Fisher and the rest of KC's offensive line is responsible for physically matching up against Cam Jordan today, because duh, I know that. Maybe I should call them something other than matchups? I'll find a smoother-sounding version of "3 Must-See Player Duos Who Significantly Influence One Another’s’ Performances" and I’ll get back to you. This last entry is another non-matchup. That's my only point here.

While Ware isn't exactly matched up against Saints middle linebacker Craig Robertson, they'll be seeing each other often today. Robertson leads his team with 33 combined tackles, and Ware (not to mention Jamaal Charles if he's feeling healthy) should get enough up-front blocking to reach the second level of the New Orleans defense. This is where Robertson's ability or inability to wrap up Chiefs in space could decide this game.

KC's simple, obvious key to success today is running the football with conviction and consistency. If the Chiefs run the ball successfully, they can burn the clock with a tie or the lead, thus keeping the opponent's future Hall of Fame QB on the sideline. A consistent running game limits Brees' chances to hurt KC, and also keep the Chiefs defense well-rested. So, to keep that running game going, KC needs third-down conversions on the ground, and nobody has a bigger defensive impact on the success or failure on third downs than a middle linebacker that leads his team in tackles.

I will continue with this “fool’s errand” of making week-to-week NFL predictions by picking the Chiefs to win a 27-24 thriller at home today. As a bonus, I also predict that Chiefs fans will continue to hit up Saints defensive tackle Nick Fairley’s Twitter feed with love after he suddenly lost his mother earlier this week. We can all sympathize with that kind of pain, whether or not it’s something we want to acknowledge within the sanctum of football Sunday.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67. He still has a Facebook page, and he loves his momma very much.

3 Ways to Win in Week 7

Our Kansas City Chiefs won comfortably last week against the 4-2 Oakland Raiders, but it won’t be a walk in the park facing Drew Brees’ 2-3 New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Despite the Saints coming to town with a genuinely intimidating offense run by a future Hall of Famer, there are still ways KC can convincingly claim victory at Arrowhead this Sunday. The Chiefs will win…

1-      …if Alex Smith comes anywhere close to the game he had last week. Smith gave us the most efficient performance in franchise history, and he did it without completing four passes to a single Chief. Seven different Chiefs caught two of Smith's 19 completions, and Alex finished the day without a touchdown pass. It was a strange way to be great, but we witnessed a glimpse of greatness from KC's franchise quarterback last Sunday.

2-      …if the altered defensive line dominates the line of scrimmage like they did last week in Oakland. Chris Jones, Jaye Howard and Dontari Poe all stayed on the field for extra snaps because of Allen Bailey’s injury, and the result was a stifled Raiders offense that mustered only 10 points. The increased playing time for these defensive linemen helped KC earn a commanding victory at a critical point in the season.

These extra snaps are particularly noteworthy for Chris Jones, since KC’s next opponent is the league's pass-happiest. Bailey is strong against the run, but scouts say Jones is a better pass-rush option, and my amateur eyeballs agree. The next three teams on KC’s schedule rank first, third and sixth respectively in team passing play percentage, so the loss of Allen Bailey may actually help the Chiefs.

3-      …if KC keeps the turnover ratio in their favor. Yeah that’s cliché, but the Chiefs haven’t won a game this year in which they lost the turnover ratio. Drew Brees, leader of the NFL’s second-greatest offense and its best pass-attack, will undoubtedly look to burn KC’s Marcus Peters on more than one occasion this Sunday. The Chiefs can still win with Peters getting beat on big plays a couple times, but only if he can claim vengeance with a pick, which he’s proven capable of doing more often than not. The guy’s on pace to be the greatest interception threat of all time, so sure, he can occasionally gamble and lose without costing his team the game.

It’s not quite the same feel as Raiders Week, based largely on the joy of hating Oakland and the inability to hate Drew Brees. I’ll do more research on the Aints and get back to you with more hatred before this Sunday’s noon kickoff.

Doug LaCerte sometimes uses Twitter @DLaC67 when it's not being cyber-attacked or whatever, and he still has a Facebook page.

The Good, The Bad and The Awesome from KC's Week 6 Win

This season’s first installment of the decades-old rivalry between the heroic Kansas City Chiefs and the dastardly Oakland Raiders resulted in a comfortable, important victory for the good guys. Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the really, really good from yesterday’s satisfying stomping in Oakland:

The Good – Almost everything? Let's get specific and give some love to KC’s offensive linemen, who comfortably controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the game. Their dominance allowed Alex Smith to complete 19 of his 22 pass attempts (a franchise record for completion percentage) and allowed Spencer Ware to run for 131 yards. Only five people on the planet currently have more 2016 yards from scrimmage than Ware. Any team in the NFL would struggle to beat the Chiefs on a day when Ware has room to run and Smith records a 109.1 passer rating.

The Bad – The questions that Chiefs fans must ask through the week paint the picture of a team with tremendous potential but too many concerns to be considered elite. While Pats fans wonder how many touchdowns Tom Brady's about to throw next week, fans in KC are asking more daunting questions. 

We still don't know when Justin Houston will be himself again, and despite a hope-inducing nine carries against the Raiders for Jamaal Charles, nobody knows how often #25 will be able to contribute going forward. We also don't know if the offensive success KC enjoyed against the Raiders can be replicated against a more legitimate defense. As the Star's Terez A. Paylor wisely pointed out, Oakland's passing defense was the NFL's worst heading into yesterday’s game, and their run defense ranked 27th.

Also, Amari Cooper’s 10 catches for 129 yards makes him the first player with over 100 receiving yards against KC since Week 2, which could reignite fears regarding KC’s weakness against elite wide outs.

The Awesome – Marcus Peters’ feast-or-famine style of play continues to work in his favor, and his fifth pick of the season is a perfect example. After Amari Cooper burned Peters on a double move, Marcus trusted his safety help and immediately reacted by deciding to play the ball, confident that Raiders QB Derek Carr couldn't successfully reach Cooper with the pass. His initial failure and immediate decision to gamble resulted in a momentum-shifting interception.

I would be remiss if I didn't also reflect on an all-time great scoring his first touchdown of the season and increasing his workload to nine carries. The next two teams on KC’s schedule – the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts – rank 25^th and 24^th respectively in rushing yards allowed per game this season. These next two weeks should be a great indicator of how much Jamaal still has in the tank. If KC scouts are to be believed, we will all witness the resurgence of one of NFL history’s greatest talents within the month of October. Now that would be awesome.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers that he exists on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses his Facebook to find good Raider Hater memes.

KC Success in The Steel City?

Our 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs face off tonight against the recently enigmatic 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. To better understand the 2016 Steelers, we need to take a quick look at the team that dominated them just a week ago. Pittsburgh lost 34-3 to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3, and rookie QB Carson Wentz threw for 301 yards. Pittsburgh was arguably Philly's first legit test of the year, since the Eagles began the season with wins against the Browns and Bears. Maybe Wentz runs an offense that will go on to consistently burn good NFL defenses. Maybe the Steelers' defense is officially "no good". It seems like there's some truth to both possibilities.

Only four NFL teams have allowed more yards per game than Pittsburgh. Despite that, the Steelers have only allowed 22 points per game, which puts them right in the middle of the pack statistically. Only five teams hold their opponents to a lower 3rd down conversion percentage, but despite the veteran presence of OLD James Harrison and others, the Steelers D won't instill fear in the Chiefs quite like they did in years past.

For the record, Philadelphia averages 9 points allowed per game this year, which is the lowest average in the NFL. It sounds like Pittsburgh got beat by a balanced, impressive Eagles team last week. However, KC surely had the flaws that Philly exploited in mind when designing this week's game plan. KC's offense has the weapons necessary to exploit Pittsburgh's flaws, and KC’s defense has the ability to suddenly change the game with a timely interception or six.

According to OddsShark.com, bookies will give KC between three and four points in this Week 4 faceoff at Heinz Field. For once, I have more faith in my Chiefs than Vegas does. I expect KC's offense to have a good day, thanks in part to that red-hot secondary keeping the turnover ratio in the Chiefs' favor. I'm predicting a 27-24 win for our Chiefs, a high-five-inducing interception for Marcus Peters while he's guarding the league's best wide out Antonio Brown, and a huge smile on millions of Chiefs fans' faces when Jamaal Charles takes the field for the first time this season.

No matter what happens, let's enjoy the return of #25 tonight. Every snap Jamaal takes is important to NFL history.

Doug LaCerte makes fun of the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses his Facebook page to hustle for those sweet, sweet pageviews. 

Turnovers Torture Jets Fans, Chiefs Fans Witness Wild Week 3 Win

Well, I did not expect that. I won't feel too bad about predicting a close game and even a loss for our Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, but sometimes I really love being wrong. Travis Kelce and the rest of the tight end corps made me look sorta smart with 10 combined catches for 113 yards, then KC's defense made me look real dumb by forcing roughly a bajillion turnovers and never giving the New York Jets a chance.

Yesterday's Chiefs victory surely incited plenty of happy shouting and high-fives for all, but it does bring up an intriguing and disturbing question: can you bank on a team that's built around creating turnovers? I don't know the answer to that question, and I assume the answer's you'll get are rather philosophical, but forcing turnovers thankfully is not the Chiefs' only way to win. The offense displayed its explosive comeback potency with that Week 1 comeback win over Sandy Eggo, and the defense reacts positively to high-pressure moments nearly every week. But yeah, if you force 9 turnovers every game, you probably don't need the world's best offense or defense.

In case you missed the ridiculous totals, KC's defense was responsible for 8 total turnovers, 3 interceptions in the end zone, 4 consecutive drives that ended with KC picks and countless frowns on the faces of Jets fans.

The two successful, highly-regarded QBs facing off in yesterday's Week 3 battle probably experienced two very different ranges of emotion as they went to bad last night. Alex Smith only missed on eight of his 33 pass attempts, and his grand total of zero interceptions is precisely six less than the total thrown by the opposing QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered yesterday's game as the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week. He then exited Kansas City with a Week 3 loss, six more picks on his stat sheet and a fresh reminder that Arrowhead Stadium is the toughest NFL road game environment in the entire universe.

Smith can sleep soundly after guiding his team to victory, largely by utilizing the tremendous advantage afforded to him by the Chiefs’ defense. Fitzpatrick can only dream of the next time he gets to throw a pass that doesn't land in the hands of someone wearing a red jersey.

KC's effectiveness in creating turnovers yesterday puts the rest of the league on alert. You better believe this game affects the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Week 4 game plan in a major way. If KC can still stifle the Steelers by forcing even more turnovers next week, we could witness one of the best Sunday Night Football games in recent history. If not, I think the Chiefs will probably lose, but I clearly know nothing.

Doug’s all the way up to….shit, still just 16 Twitter followers @DLaC67, and he occasionally uses his Facebook page to pimp these articles.

Chiefs vs. Jets: Week 3 Preview and Predictions

Injuries play a big role in each NFL matchup, but this week’s report could tell us who wins this Week 3 meeting at Arrowhead between our 1-1 Kansas City Chiefs and the 1-1 New York Jets.

Veteran Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall is listed as questionable as of Sunday morning, but the same goes for KC’s #3 cornerback Phillip Gaines. Three pieces of the Chiefs offensive – all guards – are also listed. Jah Reid and Parker Ehinger will not play, and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is listed as questionable. Two injuries to Jets inside linebackers could give Travis Kelce and KC’s offense extra opportunities for big plays, but overall, this week’s injury report exposes KC far more than New York.

More injuries to the Chief’s offensive line makes things even harder for a team who failed to score a touchdown last week. New York’s defense shouldn’t pose the same threat to KC that Houston’s did, but the Texans and Jets offenses attack in a similarly balanced manner. Marshall’s aforementioned knee injury could hamper the potency of New York’s trio of Eric Decker, Marshall and emerging weapon Quincy Enunwa, but through their first two games, KC’s secondary looked weak against offenses with even two high-quality targets. Decker and Marshall both have at least 8 catches and over 130 passing yards this year, yet Enunwa leads the team with 13 catches and ranks second in reception yards.

New York balances this passing game with a heavy dose of veteran back Matt Forte, who shows no signs of decline in his ninth NFL season. Only three players in the league have more 2016 rushing yards than Forte, and of them already played his third game of the season. New York’s combination of a strong running game and a dynamic passing attack has earned the NFL’s 4^th-highest yards-per-game average.

The Chiefs have only played one quarter of winning football this season, so it’s tough to predict victory against another worthy, tested opponent. New York looks frighteningly capable of executing a gameplan that tears up KC’s secondary, while the Chiefs offense encouraged precisely zero Chiefs fans last week. I predict that KC will limit their mental mistakes after last week’s struggles, which should keep this game close and fun. Sadly, I once again will guess that our Chiefs lose a close one to a good team. Official prediction: the Jets win a thriller 23-20, and I become much too sad to properly enjoy the night game.

Don’t be like me, Chiefs fans. Enjoy your day, even if our Chiefs lose, and even if they’ll probably lose again next week in Pittsburgh. Anyways, have fun!

Doug LaCerte has 16 Twitter followers @DLaC67 and a Facebook page. He often forgets about both until he does this, but he's working on that.

Week 2 Preview and Predictions: Houston Texans

I’m scared about our Kansas City Chiefs facing off with the Houston Texans in this Week 2 road game. I recently talked about how KC matches up against the intimidating defensive playmakers for Houston, but the offensive line won’t be 100% today. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Parker Ehinger, KC’s starting guards in Week 1, haven’t practiced in the latter half of the week and will not see the field in Houston. With or without all their pieces, the Chiefs would still be facing a tough test today.

The injury concerns aren’t the only reasons to worry. It took KC 21 fourth-quarter points, numerous punting gaffes from the San Diego Chargers and all of Spencer Ware’s 199 total yards just to send that game to overtime. KC pulled off the largest comeback in franchise history to win against an objectively sub-par team last week.

Houston was a legitimate playoff team last year – at least before being plagued with injuries – and most analysts can agree they’ve gotten better. The addition of new QB Brock Osweiler, fantasy football favorite Lamar Miller and dangerous first-round pick wide out Will Fuller makes the Texans’ offense dynamic. The Texans defense clearly has a better chance at limiting KC’s offense than the Chargers did, so Osweiler’s ability to run Houston’s new, multifaceted offense could decide the winner of today’s game.

The fact that Vegas only gives the Chiefs between 1 and 1.5 points actually makes me more impressed with KC’s Week 1 performance. This improved Texans team looks frighteningly talented, and our Chiefs looked woefully ineffective in three of the last four quarters they played. I think KC needs a turnover to keep this one close, but they’re due for at least one, so I am predicting a close game. We’re lookin’ at you, Marcus Peters.

I regret to say that I predict a 27-24 win for the Texans today. Expect KC to keep things interesting with that aforementioned turnover, and expect the Chiefs to target the middle of the field often with veteran middle linebacker Brian Cushing injured this week. I sincerely hope Travis Kelce proves my initial prediction wrong and scores you fantasy footballers a bajillion points today.

Feel free to publicly shame me when all my predictions go wrong @DLaC67, or head directly to my Facebook page.

Fisher and Company Face Tough Task in Houston

Kansas City Chiefs left tackle Eric Fisher, the often-maligned first overall pick in the 2013 draft, just gave us the best regular season performance in his budding career, but the Houston Texans defense humbles some of the planet’s strongest individuals on a weekly basis. Fisher’s confidence has perhaps never been higher, which is great, because he’ll need it this Sunday.

Pro Football Focus proclaimed that Fisher and his 82.0 grade was the NFL’s best at his position in Week 1. Kansas City right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif received a grade of 79.4, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (who will perhaps see more J.J. Watt than any Chief this time around) received a 75.7. This should obviously bode well for KC’s offense as a whole, but the reigning Deacon Jones Award recipient isn’t the only guy to fear on Houston’s defense.

Whitney Mercilus earned the season’s first AFC Defensive Player of the Week award by terrorizing Jay Cutler and the rest of the Chicago Bears offense. Mercilus finished Week 1 with four hits on the opposing QB, including two sacks and a forced fumble. Nobody in the league has more sacks since Week 6 of last season than this guy. Mercilus’ two sacks and forced fumble occurred when he targeted the Bears’ left tackle – a position now held securely in KC by the aforementioned Eric Fisher.

Fisher succeeded on passing plays and run protection interchangeably last Sunday, and it seemed that he only lost his man when Alex Smith was forced out of the pocket. This Texans defense will surely throw more creative blitz packages at KC than the San Diego Chargers could, and the difference in talent found on the Chargers’ defense and Houston’s is immense. KC needs both their offensive tackles to limit the damage done by Mercilus and Watt in order to keep the offense moving in Houston.

Since pointing out how much I appreciate all 17 people following me on Twitter @DLaC67, I actually lost a follower. Thanks for nothing, whoever you were.

Dee Ford and Marcus Peters Must Step Up Now (Or, You Know, Sunday)

Wednesday seems like a good day to dim the optimism gleamed from last week’s impressive comeback win by your Kansas City Chiefs. We all got two full days of appreciating that never-before-seen style of win. Now it’s time to remember how dreadful KC looked before the last ten minutes of regulation. How did they dig themselves such a deep hole, and how much fear should that instill in Chiefs fans?

Before Keenan Allen tore his right ACL, he caught six passes for 63 yards. Allen’s injury came on the play following the first half’s two-minute warning, meaning he was on pace to catch more than 10 passes for well over 100 yards. Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters consistently got burnt by Allen, and worries about replacing Sean Smith in the secondary seemed well-founded as KC fell to a 24-3 deficit with less than 25 minutes left on the clock.

KC’s defense did buckle down eventually, allowing just 6 points in the second half and forcing punts down the stretch when it mattered most. However, fear still looms large after needing such a brilliant comeback to beat an objectively lesser football team. The Chiefs need to consistently pressure the quarterback and provide tighter coverage in the secondary in order to win against teams better than the Chargers.

I honestly can’t tell you if it’s defensive coordinator Bob Sutton or the talent on the field who deserves the lion’s share of the blame for so many ineffective plays from defensive ends/outside linebackers, but that cannot happen when KC meets up with stronger teams. This is all at-a-glance analysis (still looking for a way to watch prior games without shelling out a Benjamin for NFL Game Pass), but I would wager that Dee Ford was a non-factor far more often than the average Chiefs fan would’ve predicted – and the average Chiefs fan was decidedly not in love with Ford’s production prior to this season.

Analysts claimed that the secondary was KC’s biggest potential weakness heading into Week 1, but I figured this had to do with whoever would go on to replace Sean Smith. It turns out that Marcus Peters earned his fair share of skeptics Sunday afternoon, too. Peters and Dee Ford aren’t alone when it comes to deserving blame for that disappointing start – a struggling defensive line also allowed 155 total rushing yards – but they are the guys KC most desperately needs right now.

Sam Mellinger’s list of super-talented wide receivers that KC will see this year is disturbingly long. Adam Schefter’s latest report on Justin Houston has him returning to the Chiefs in November. Week 9 will reportedly be the earliest game in which he may play. That means we need Ford to help apply pressure while Peters covers TY Hilton, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall and DeAndre Hopkins. The Chiefs should be favorites in either two or three of those four games, but this season could all come down to how well this struggling duo fares before Houston’s return.

Feel free to loudly disagree with me on Twitter @DLaC67 or on my Facebook page.

Comeback Chaos for AFC West Competitors

Aaaaaand after a little two-year break, we're back! Here's a Week 1 recap for the entire AFC West, but check back soon for more Chiefs-based analysis:

If you live and die with an AFC West team that was expected to be competitive this year, this should feel like a rather lovely week. Football is back, and you just experienced an extremely entertaining comeback victory that earned your team part of a three-way tie for 1^st place in the division. What a wonderful start to the season it was, unless you’re a Chargers fan.

The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers began the regular season in memorable fashion Thursday night as 25.4 million people watched from home. This one-point comeback win for the defending champs in the season-opening Super Bowl rematch only served as the first course of intense entertainment served up by the AFC West in Week 1.

The Oakland Raiders took their high hopes and highly regarded quarterback David Carr for a long plane ride southeast on Sunday to start their regular season against the New Orleans Saints. Oakland overcame a four-touchdown, 424-yard day from Drew Brees and a 14-point deficit to start their season 1-0. Carr went blow-for-blow with Brees until the very end, when a Raiders touchdown drive, a two-point conversion and a barely-missed 61-yard field goal attempt from New Orleans resulted in a 25-24 comeback victory for Oakland. Viewers of that game probably presumed nothing would top what they just watched, but as that Raiders game wrapped up, Oakland’s greatest rival was mounting another incredible comeback in Kansas City.

OddsShark.com gave the San Diego Chargers 6.5 points in this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Philip Rivers and Company got off to an early 24-3 lead at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense then buckled down and allowed just 6 points in the second half, and KC managed to score 17 points in the 4^th quarter's last 10 minutes to send the game to overtime. Alex Smith then led the Chiefs on a 10-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a game-winning, two-yard touchdown run.

The previous comeback wins for their divisional rivals must alter the emotional flavor of this victory for the Chiefs, and vice versa. These hard-fought games ramp up the tension and excitement within the division that will only escalate as the season continues.

Next week, Kansas City travels to Houston where OddsShark.com says they’ll be two-point underdogs against the Houston Texans – the same organization they thrashed and shut out in the AFC Divisional round of last year’s playoffs. Denver will be heavily favored against the 0-1 Indianapolis Colts, and Oakland will reportedly give 4.5 to the 0-1 Atlanta Falcons in the Raiders’ home opener. The Chargers return to San Diego, where they’ll try for a fresh start against the 0-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams from the AFC West won’t face off again until Week 5, when the Chargers travel to Oakland. The Chiefs then travel to Oakland in Week 6 for what could be one of the biggest games in this great rivalry’s recent history.

Doug LaCerte frequently neglects his Facebook page, and he profoundly appreciates each of the 17 people following him on Twitter @DLaC67.