Persistent Pandemic Problems Change Chiefs' Plans for Facing Pittsburgh

The gloom of COVID-related problems seeped into nearly every fanbase's reality this week, and Chiefs Kingdom was no different. Major pieces missing from the Chiefs roster dominated headlines in Kansas City recently, so let's get that out of the way: KC will be without Lucas Niang, Nick Bolton and Travis Kelce today. Do the Chiefs have what it takes to overcome these absences and beat a desperate Pittsburgh Steelers team at Arrowhead this afternoon?

Any loss to the offensive line built to protect the greatest asset in Chiefs history is clearly a concern, but the Chiefs have successfully protected Patrick Mahomes with occasional replacements to the O-line this season. Nick Bolton looks destined to be one of KC's best defenders for years to come since earning increased playing time throughout the year, and the much-improved Chiefs defense may dearly miss the spark he brings. Then, there's Travis Kelce. His absence leaves a Hall of Famer-sized hole in KC's offensive game plan.

Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Kansas City employs this generation's greatest play-caller. Head coach Andy Reid needs to scheme the Chiefs into some first downs and big plays without Kelce's influence, which should actually be fascinating to watch. We can expect an increased role for other Chiefs pass-catchers like the under-rated Byron Pringle or the underwhelming Mecole Hardman. Despite my curiosity regarding the passing game, the challengers facing the Chiefs today have a major problem on defense completely unrelated to Patrick Mahomes's arm.

This Steelers defense is not what it used to be. Pittsburgh racks up the second-most sacks per game in the NFL, but they also allow the second-most rushing yards per game. The Chiefs drafted a running back in the first round in order to have a major advantage in moments like this. This game seems like it was designed as a Clyde Edwards-Helaire showcase.

Clyde and the rest of KC's capable running backs should give the Chiefs enough firepower to overcome this flawed and aging Steelers team. I predict that Andy will find a few creative ways to keep the offense moving today, and this will help KC earn the W, 27-17.

Can Chargers Damage Chiefs' Championship Chances?

This week's Thursday Night Football will present the most important game of the regular season for the AFC West. All eyes will be on the 9-4 Kansas City Chiefs when they line up against the 8-5 Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium tonight. As fans prepare for this pivotal meeting, as well as all the playoff drama that's soon to come, I'm coming to grips with a bitter truth regarding the quarterbacks in tonight's game.

Chiefs Kingdom knows how great Patrick Mahomes is, but Justin Herbert has been better than our guy this season. Don't kill the messenger - it's a simple mathematical fact. Herbert's been better in every major statistic except for sacks and sack yards lost. When they faced off earlier this season, the young Chargers QB threw for four touchdowns without a turnover and recorded an Adjusted QBR that was 23 points higher than Patrick's. There is no denying that Herbert won the first battle of the season. The Chargers winning the war tonight would do serious damage to the Chiefs' chances at claiming another championship.

This game could come down to the last possession, as indicated by the three-point spread, and the way Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo coaches around a few key omissions to the defense could decide who wins tonight. Both teams could be dealing with major omissions to the roster, but we know for sure that Kansas City will be without Chris Jones, Willie Gay and L'Jarius Sneed. I was happy to give Spagnuolo credit recently for this defense's drastic improvement, but tonight is his biggest test of this regular season. I have faith that Spags can pass that test, especially because I have faith in guys like Nick Bolton and conference defensive player of the week Mike Hughes to make the most of their increased snap count.

It's a good time to be hot, and nobody's hotter than the Chiefs right now. Nobody's reached double-digits on this defense in three games, and nobody's scored more than 17 in the last six. Only five teams in the NFL now hold their opponents to fewer points per game. That's an objectively good defense, and a good defense succeeds even when missing key talent. I believe the Chiefs can meet these somewhat lofty expectations and win this one 31-24.

Revenge for Raiders in Week 14?

The Las Vegas Raiders would love nothing more than to upset the Kansas City Chiefs this week at Arrowhead. Vegas started their season with a three-game winning streak, but they've lost four of their last five while dealing with problems on and off the field. The organization is reportedly high on interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, but under his leadership, both the New York Giants and Washington Football Team already defeated the Raiders. Is there any way this downtrodden team can upset the resurgent Chiefs today?

Kansas City leaves themselves susceptible to losing to inferior teams when they turn the ball over. That's not rocket science, but it's still a game-changer worth noting. If the Raiders were taking the ball away from their opponents at a significant rate, that would fuel "upset alert" takes from football fans everywhere. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, this is not the case. Vegas ranks 23rd league-wide with 13 total takeaways, while the Chiefs' 18 takeaways makes them 11th.

Could the Chiefs' mediocre run defense get in the way of their continued success over the Vegas Raiders? Despite huge improvement from the KC defense as a whole, they still have allowed at least five yards per carry to their last two opponents. This kept both games closer than fans in KC would've liked, but the Chiefs finished both days with a victory. The Raiders have only averaged more than 4.8 yards per carry one time this season - against the 4-8 New York Giants. Only the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans average fewer rushing yards per game than the Raiders.

There is no other facet of either team that makes me scared of Vegas today. An unimpressive receiver core mixed with an unimpressive rushing offense plus a Darren Waller injury is not the right recipe for success against this much-improved KC defense. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid batter Vegas' secondary with great consistency, and there's no evidence saying that should change today. I'm predicting a 27-16 victory for Kansas City, which still leaves the Raiders with only three victories over the Chiefs in the 18 games they've played since the start of the 2013 season.

Divisional Drama Deepened by Denver's Dominant Defense

The resurgent Kansas City Chiefs face off with the resilient Denver Broncos at Arrowhead tonight in the first of three straight intra-division games on the Chiefs' schedule. KC's recent success made them frontrunners for winning the AFC West, but a loss tonight could once again flip this division on its head. Many may underestimate these 6-5 Broncos, but Denver's point differential this season is exactly one point higher than the Chiefs' +31. What's keeping this previously unheralded Broncos team in the mix?

Defense is how Denver achieved consistent success this season. Their passing yards and total yards allowed per game rank in the top ten league-wide. Their points allowed per game ranks third behind only the Pats and Bills, but the vast majority of offenses Denver faced so far range from average to awful. The Broncos limited the Dallas Cowboys to 16 points in Week 9, but the Cowboys were without brick wall left tackle Tyron Smith that day. Aside from Dallas, the highest-scoring offense Denver has faced is the Philadelphia Eagles, whose 25.3 points per game ranks 13th in the NFL. KC scores a similar 25.5 points per game this year, which ranks ninth.

The Chiefs undoubtedly enter this game with momentum, but the offense has still failed to meet expectations. Through their current four-game winning streak, Kansas City only scored over 20 points once. Denver excels in dropping back two safeties and limiting big plays, which is exactly how the rest of the league has stalled KC's offense all season long. Impressive rookie cornerback Pat Surtain II will also make today difficult for Tyreek Hill - the Chiefs' key deep threat. This could keep tonight's game closer than Vegas oddsmakers predict.

Despite Denver's imposing defense, I expect the Chiefs to prevail tonight. The bye week gives Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes an extra week to scheme up something to counter teams dropping back two safeties. We should see an improvement from Kansas City's offense because of this, but one extra week won't solve all their struggles. I predict an ugly 23-17 victory for Kansas City.