Can KC's AFC Supremacy Continue?

The losers of the next Chiefs game we watch will end their season devastated, regardless of how much they achieved and contrary to what they may tell the media. The winners worry only about their warm-weather packing plans, as the calm California climate of Inglewood's SoFi Stadium awaits them in two short weeks. One more Kansas City Chiefs victory is all it takes to earn them a spot in the Super Bowl. Only Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals stand in Kansas City's way. This game's got all the makings of yet another classic this afternoon, but reaching the levels of drama from last week's game would be damn difficult.

KC cannot keep giving up 36 points per playoff game, but Chiefs Kingdom is ecstatic after Kansas City outdueled the Buffalo Bills last week. Kansas City's defense focused on limiting the impact of their opponents' best wide receiver. Consequently, Stefon Diggs only caught three passes for seven yards. Implementing that same strategy today seems logical when we look back at the last time these teams faced off. Ja'Marr Chase destroyed KC's defense for over 250 receiving yards and three touchdowns only four weeks ago. Limiting the chances of that happening again was undoubtedly on Steve Spagnuolo's mind a lot this week.

Buffalo's Gabriel Davis became a legend by racking up four touchdown catches and over 200 yards receiving last Sunday, but all that still didn't stop the Chiefs from getting the job done. I believe KC can and will limit Chase, even if it means someone else goes crazy in his stead. Whether that's Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd or some dark-horse like Gabriel Davis is irrelevant as long as key Chiefs on offense continue to improve their already-impressive playoff resumes. 

Future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce caught 8 for 96 and a game-winning score last week. That was the first playoff game he didn't finish with over 100 receiving yards since the Chiefs faced Tampa in the Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill has more ups and downs relative to the remarkably consistent Kelce, but Hill still averages over 110 receiving yards over his last six playoff games. The most obvious piece to the playoff success puzzle for this Chiefs offense is its legendary signal-caller.

Patrick Mahomes now has an 8-2 playoff record in which he completes over 66% of his passes with a 25/5 touchdown/interception rate. Mahomes has avoided throwing a pick in seven of his ten playoff appearances. Joe Shiesty looks legit in this exciting start to his playoff career, but nobody short of Joe Montana would make Mahomes the underdog in this moment. I don't even believe that Joe could outduel Mahomes right now.

That being said, Burrow gives the Bengals a puncher's chance with big-play potential similar to what the Kingdom regularly witnesses in Kansas City. Cincy ranks fifth league-wide in pass plays of 20+ yards, and Mahomes' offense is sixth. Joe is tied for second place with his 15 passes of 40+ yards, and Patrick is again right there with him at third place with 11. Not everything about their style of play is so similar, however.

Burrow led the league in taking sacks in the regular season. He took 51, while Mahomes was only sacked 28 times. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen were sacked fewer times while still playing in all 17 regular season games. Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the rest of KC's defense should have a better chance bothering Burrow than the Bengals have of bringing down Mahomes. KC's defense ranks 8th or higher in QB hurries per dropback, pressures per dropback and knockdowns per pass attempt.

The defense doesn't need to completely shut down this recently dominant Bengals offense to give the Chiefs a chance today. After all, giving up 36 points apparently works out just fine as long as they leave about 13 seconds on the clock. If KC can hit pay-dirt with more frequency than Burrow's Bengals today, the Chiefs will once again claim the trophy that bears their maker's name. I'm predicting a thrilling 37-31 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC Continue Playoff Push by Beating Buffalo?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off tonight to decide who faces Cincy in next week's AFC Championship game. Patrick Mahomes passed for over 404 yards and five touchdowns, and he still didn't outperform Josh Allen. Buffalo's signal caller started the game with seven straight touchdowns against the greatest football coach ever, as Allen and the Bills dismantled Bill Belichick's New England Patriots 47-17. 

Both QBs led prolific passing offenses that showed flaws at times before looking truly elite down the stretch. By the end of the regular season, both teams posted top-five yards per game and points per game. Despite some ups and downs in the regular season, Allen still finished with a 60.8 QBR that ranks sixth league-wide, just a spot behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen and the Bills dominated the Chiefs in Week 5 of the regular season, and they just dominated their opponents on Wild Card Weekend, but the Chiefs are still favored by one or one and a half at home tonight. The huge difference between what the Chiefs were in October and what they have now become is the key reason why KC's last meeting with the Bills had little influence on today's spread.

That first meeting in Week 5 was weird. Both QBs led their teams in rushing yards. No Bill caught more than three passes, but four different Bills finished the day with over 50 receiving yards. Buffalo's defense game-plan limited the production of future Hall of Famers on KC's offense so successfully that Mecole Hardman led the Chiefs in receiving yards and catches that day. Stefon Diggs only caught two passes, but he still racked up 69 receiving yards.

Buffalo beat the Chiefs by 18 that day, and talking head Stephen A. Smith described KC's defense as "trash" and "an atrocity". At that point in the season, he wasn't wrong. Chris Jones was still experimenting with a new position. Melvin Ingram was still a disgruntled Pittsburgh Steeler. I already detailed the changes that made the Chiefs championship contenders again, but it's worth remembering just how hapless things felt back in October. 

I predicted that the Chiefs would lose to the Bills in that first meeting. Much has changed since then. For today, I have to give the edge, as I always do, to the coach and quarterback tandem with proven playoff success. Josh Allen looked flawless last week, but that's his only truly great outing in the playoffs. Both offenses should come down from the stratosphere to be at least slightly less incredible than they were last week. This is especially true for KC, as the Bills defense held opponents to the lowest total yards, passing yards and total points per game this season. Despite this, I'm going with my guy Mahomes to provide a little magic and keep the good times rolling in Kansas City. This matchup has Game of the Year vibes, and I think the Chiefs will survive it, 34-31.

Could Pittsburgh Present Playoff Perils to KC?

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead tonight. The Kansas City Chiefs are huge favorites this time around as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. What could give the 14-point underdogs a chance against the Chiefs in this lopsided, do-or-die battle?

Football fans everywhere likely agree that the Steelers won't have the advantage at QB tonight. In fact, a player who will one day become another one of Pittsburgh's representatives in Canton may be the player holding the Steelers back the most right now.

Pittsburgh struggled their way through an easy schedule and snuck into the playoffs as Ben Roethlisberger finished the regular season with an Adjusted QBR of 35.8. That ranks 25th among all qualified players, putting Big Ben behind guys like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. The only player to play more than 14 games and finish with a lower QBR was rookie Jaguar Trevor Lawrence. Big Ben had the full support of one of the most respected teams in football history, and Trevor Lawrence is a Jacksonville Jaguar. 

Prior to Pittsburgh's overtime victory over the Ravens last week, Roethlisberger compiled QBR's no better than 14.0 in three consecutive games. What's actually impressive is the fact that the Steelers only lost one of those three games - the one in which they faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was the only team to score more than 14 points against Pittsburgh during that stretch. It's probably no coincidence that the Chiefs won while keeping T.J. Watt sack-less in that game, as opposed to him racking up four sacks against Cleveland and one and a half sacks against Tennessee. 

Watt led the league in sacks, tying the all-time record of 22.5. Thankfully for worrisome fans belonging to Chiefs Kingdom, KC's offensive line finished third league-wide in percentage of sacks allowed per play, behind only the Bills and Bucs. The line that Kansas City built from scratch this off-season finished its first year ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' power rankings. If health permits, the Chiefs should prove with this ensuing playoff run that worrying about the offensive line represents only residue of past failures.

Speaking of past failures, turning the ball over is another way KC could turn this opportunity into another memorable disaster like we witnessed in the pre-Mahomes regimes. KC is 11th in the NFL in turnover differential at +4, and Pittsburgh is tied at 13th with +2. This ranking for the Chiefs felt like a disappointment when I saw that stat, especially when I also saw that KC's 29 takeaways ties them for fifth-best in the league. It's also worth noting that the top-ten list for total takeaways is comprised of eight playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. It certainly seems like a high volume of takeaways takes teams to the playoffs or gets them damn close.

Kansas City's problem with their turnover differential came from their surprisingly high volume of giveaways; 25 ties them with the Tennessee Titans for the ninth-most in the NFL. No team with more giveaways reached the playoffs, and each team on the top-five list for most giveaways this season lost at least 11 games. Pittsburgh's 22 takeaways this season ties them at 14th in the league, meaning that the Chiefs will face an opponent whose ability to take the ball away is essentially league-average. The Chiefs have played five teams with higher takeaway totals this season - the Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Giants and Titans - and Kansas City won three of those five games.

The gulf between the prior success rates of the teams facing off today makes it impossible for me to give the Steelers any hope. I'm predicting a comfortable 31-17 victory for the Chiefs. The "nothing to lose" mentality only gets a team so far when they run into an opponent playing objectively better football.

Could Denver's Defense Doom Chiefs' Chance to Reclaim #1 Seed?

Broncos fans enjoyed flashes of hope last November when Denver beat the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers. Aside from these wins, Denver has only claimed victory over teams who currently have losing records. The Kansas City Chiefs need the victory today to put pressure on the Tennessee Titans, who would hand the #1 seed back to the Chiefs if KC handles their business today and Tennessee is toppled by the mighty Houston Texans tomorrow. It should surprise no one to see oddsmakers predicting both games to be decided by ten or more points.

Perhaps the biggest potential for surprise in either game, with respect to Dangerous Davis Mills in Houston, comes from the Denver defense. The Broncos ranks among the league's top ten in most major defensive statistics, making them a good test for a Chiefs offense that experienced a shaky middle of the season. Despite failing to score more than 20 in any game from Week 5 to Week 9, the Chiefs currently sit in the top four league-wide in total yards, passing yards and points per game. Scoring 31 or more in their last four games made that possible. 31 points, unfortunately, wasn't enough to make achieving victory possible in Cincy last week.

Rookie legend-in-the-making Ja'Marr Chase had the greatest regular season performance in wide receiver history for the Cincinnati Bengals last week. All that production was just enough to sneak past Kansas City with a field goal as time expired. Unless some Bronco can also go off for 266 receiving yards, I like the Chiefs' odds this afternoon. The two-digit spread for this game makes sense when you compare the aforementioned success of Kansas City's offense with the fact that Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in their last three games. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for the Chiefs.

Can KC's Defense Bother Burrow's Bengals?

It's tough to tell what will limit Joe Burrow any given week. He's won and lost against teams with varying pressure rates, yards allowed per game and any other relevant stat I could think to Google. Burrow lost by three to both Aaron Rodger's Green Bay Packers and Mike White's New York Jets. The Cincinnati Bengals' young signal-caller ranks 6th league-wide in passing yards while tying for the league lead in interceptions, which results in a 52.7 QBR that ranks 13th. His upside is tremendous, but Joe's still justifiably unpredictable.

What's more predictable is the continued success of the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Nobody but the Los Angeles Chargers' objectively strong offense has mustered more than two touchdowns in a game against KC since the first day of November. Only four teams in football hold opponents to fewer points per game than the Chiefs. Cincinnati's passing offense will pose a serious threat today. The Bengals rank 8th overall in passing yards per game and seventh in points per game. However, KC overcame a similarly potent opponent very recently when they outscored Justin Herbert's Chargers just two weeks ago. Herbert's offense ranks fourth in passing yards and total yards per game this year, and the Chargers score 0.1 points per game fewer than Burrow's Bengals.

The spotlight once again shines brightly on Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who once again deserves his roses for the incredible improvement shown by this defense. This improvement, when paired with a quarterback-coach tandem that's destined for the Hall of Fame, will give the Chiefs the advantage today. I predict an exciting 31-27 victory for Kansas City.