Rapidly Reviewing Chiefs' Likeliest, Luckiest Possible Playoff Opponents

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Los Angeles Chargers in their final regular season game this afternoon, but Chiefs Kingdom will be more focused on at least two other games taking place today. Results from the noon game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans and the night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will shape this season's playoff tournament. If Miami loses to Buffalo, the Dolphins will face the Chiefs next week in the Wild Card round. Wins from the Dolphins and Jaguars would give the Houston Texans the #6 seed and the Chiefs as playoff opponents next week. If the Jags lose and the Dolphins beat the Bills, that spot goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the highly unlikely event of a tie in the Dolphins-Bills game, the Bills become KC's next opponent. 

Miami is the only team out of these four that already punched their ticket to the playoffs. The Dolphins also have the best odds at facing KC next week. ESPN Analytics gives Buffalo a 54.4% chance to win tonight. The same formula gives the Jags a 57.1% chance to beat Tennessee. Do Chiefs fans want to see Miami in the playoffs, or should we be rooting for another team to sneak into that spot? 

I personally wouldn't fear the Dolphins or Texans too much, but all Chiefs fans should be cheering for the Tennessee Titans today. A Titans win and a Dolphins win would be the best-case scenario for KC, who would be heavily favored against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week in that scenario. Now that T.J. Watt is out with a sprained MCL, Pittsburgh doesn't have a single player that scares opponents as much as Tyreek Hill or C.J. Stroud. 

The big question is whether or not Tennessee can survive a game with the desperate Jags. The Titans score the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL, and promising rookie QB Will Levis is out today with a foot injury. Despite fighting through his own injuries lately, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence looks ready to play. Jacksonville beat the Titans by 20 in Week 10. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans as the worst offensive line in football entering Week 18, which could be bad news when facing off against Jacksonville's stud pass-rusher Josh Allen, who ranks third league-wide in total sacks this season.

So, the Titans may not get it done for us, but that's okay. Baltimore is honestly the only AFC team I would predict to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs right now, and we don't need to worry about that for at least a couple weeks. I'm predicting wins for the Jags and Dolphins, which would mean I'm predicting that the Chiefs will face the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. C.J. Stroud looks dangerous, but that's a topic for another day. Enjoy cheering for Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Tannehill today, Chiefs Kingdom. I definitely didn't have that on my bingo card this season.

KC's Improved Rushing Defense Faces Titanic Test

Two division-leading perennial playoff teams with 5-2 records face off tonight, and the spread is 12.5. That seems weird, but the Kansas City Chiefs' recent past looks a bit different than that of the visiting Tennessee Titans.

The Titans lost their first two games against the Giants and Bills, but rebounded to win five straight against the Raiders, Colts, Commanders, the Colts again and Houston. None of those losing teams are expected to be great this year, but Tennessee can only play the teams on their schedule. Also, to be totally fair, Indy beat KC, and Tennessee overcame the mighty Colts twice. Predicting Tennessee's effectiveness against a legit team at this point of the year could be difficult, because they haven't faced anyone good since the second game of the season. What's similarly tough to predict is the Titans' effectiveness at the quarterback position today, since normal starter Ryan Tannehill is still a game-time decision to play, and nobody yet knows the true potential of the young protégé Malik Willis.

Having Tannehill under center would at least give Tennessee the best chances of winning the turnover battle. Only the Bucs, Eagles and Giants have thrown fewer picks than Tennessee this season. Aside from this, Tannehill provides no special threat to KC's defense. Tannehill's passing yards per game ranks sixth-lowest among QBs with at least five games played this year. That actually isn't abysmal considering that Tennessee's offense has the NFL's third-lowest passing play percentage. Clearly, that offense revolves around Derrick Henry.

Nobody in football has more carries, and nobody in football looked more dominant last week, when Henry ran for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Only injuries can stop Henry from being the focal point of Tennessee's offense. KC's rushing defense actually looks solid this season, after what felt like decades of struggling in that regard. The Chiefs are holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry, which is seventh league-wide, and 92 rushing yards per game, which ranks third.

If KC finally has the defense capable of limiting top-shelf rushing talent like Henry, it's hard not to predict victory for the Chiefs. 12.5 is a bit steep, though. I'll say the Chiefs win 30-21 and maintain somewhat realistic hope of eventually reclaiming the AFC's #1 seed. 

Patrick Should Ease Panic in Chiefs Kingdom

Our Kansas City Chiefs found numerous creative ways to help themselves lose in Tennessee last week, which immediately added weight to this evening's meeting with the Chargers in Mexico. The reigning MVP returned to the field and racked up 446 passing yards and three touchdowns. Somehow, Kansas City then lost. This stunning defeat makes KC's chances at a first-round bye slim, to say the least. If our Chiefs cannot defeat the Chargers tonight, the lowly Oakland Raiders will momentarily claim first place in the division. Imagine explaining that to a member of Chiefs Kingdom when KC was 4-0 to start the season.

It took a lot of things going wrong for our Chiefs to stumble into a loss last week, and that's a very important thing to remember going forward. Up to four different members of the offensive line were missing at some point due to injury. Damien Williams coughed up the football, which the Titans scooped up for a defensive touchdown. The reliable Harrison Butker missed an extra point. Then came the ugly, painful ending, wherein the Chiefs seemed determined to beat the odds and give away a win by any gut-punchingly wacky means necessary.

The prolific combo of Mahomes and Reid got the ball back in Titans territory with less than two minutes left in the game and a five-point advantage. KC failed to moved the chains, leaving 1:27 on the clock as the Chiefs set up for a 47-yard field goal attempt. Then, that botched field goal/intentional grounding thing happened. This disaster left Ryan Tannehill's Titans with the ball on the Tennessee 39 with a minute and 21 seconds left to play. That led to the touchdown which gave the Titans the lead, but Mahomes still had a little time left for magic. Even after all these shenanigans and mistakes, Patrick Mahomes put KC in a position to tie with a long field goal....but you know what happened next.

I'm hearing a bunch of media personalities jumping off the bandwagon after this disappointment, but that seems illogical to me. All this stuff, this somewhat self-inflicted and silly stuff, was necessary to make the Chiefs to lose a game to an average NFL team. I didn't expect this team to have four losses at this point in the season either, but we have to look at the long list of reasons why those L's exist before we jump to any excessively harsh conclusions. Then, look at KC's remaining schedule, and remember the fact that KC plays four of its six remaining regular season games against teams with losing records.

With Mahomes healthy, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo at least showing us an openness to adaptation, this Chiefs team still has a good chance at finishing the regular season as a more cohesive, effective football team than what we saw last year. If you believe that, then you still believe they have Super Bowl aspirations. 

Now, if our Chiefs get stomped tonight by the 4-6 Chargers, we can all proceed to panic. I don't care about how surprising it is that the Chargers aren't better, and I don't care about their thus-far-underutilized talent. The Phightin' Philips simply aren't better than our Chiefs on paper or on the gridiron. Their yards-per-game average ranks in the middle of the pack, and their scoring ability is well below-average. But, while the Chargers offense looks unimpressive on paper, their defense looks elite. 

San Diego The Chargers rank fifth league-wide in yards allowed per game, and only five teams in the NFL hold teams to fewer points per game this season. This could dampen the moods of folks hoping for a high-scoring affair, but I still expect Andy and Patrick to hungrily regain respect in prime-time tonight. That doesn't mean it will be easy, and every time I come here to tell you the Chiefs are objectively better on paper than another team, that team then hurts my feelings by hurting the Chiefs. Tension will be high tonight in Mexico City, but KC has a little advantage and a lot to prove.

Doug LaCerte writes about the Chiefs and mostly ignores his Twitter and Facebook.