San Fran's Elite D Could Concern KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs lost a bummer of a home game last Sunday to a tough playoff contender with a great defense. This week, they're heading west to face a tough playoff contender with a great defense. The biggest difference between the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers should be the difference between defeat for KC last week and victory today.

Last Sunday's 24-20 Bills win featured the two best quarterbacks in football. This week's game will feature one of those two and also Jimmy Garoppolo. That Niners defense is Super Bowl-worthy, but that offense has been outscored by Chicago, Denver and Atlanta. Christian McCaffrey could greatly improve things in time, but a guy who joined the team this Thursday can only be expected to do so much. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, San Fran's elite defense gives them a chance to win despite limited success from the offense.

This Niners defense allows the NFL's second-fewest points and fewest yards per game. Only the Dallas Cowboys sack the opposing QB at a higher rate. San Francisco also allows the ninth-lowest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL. The one thing Buffalo does way better than San Fran on defense, however, is forcing turnovers; the Bills are second league-wide in total takeaways while only 10 teams have fewer takeaways than San Francisco.

I don't expect the Chiefs defense to look elite yet, but they held the second-highest scoring team in football (KC is still first) to 24 last week, which is 5.3 points lower than Buffalo's season average. The Chiefs accomplished this without Trent McDuffie or Willie Gay, and Gay returns to action this afternoon. Allen's 117.6 Passer Rating against KC last week is concerning, but practically nobody thinks Jimmy G is on Allen's level. Garoppolo's completion percentage ranks 17th among QBs with at least three starts this season. His Passer Rating is a respectable 8th-best, but his QBR is the league's 10th-worst.

San Fran leans heavily on their successful, multi-faceted rushing attack - only seven teams in the NFL have a lower passing percentage - but Chiefs Kingdom knows better than any fanbase just how valuable an elite QB can be when the game is on the line. Let's call last week the exception to the rule. Patrick threw some picks, and I wrote an article about how the Chiefs were about to score a bunch against the Bills - we all had a bad week. Now is the time for KC to get back on track and get a tough win over tough competition. I'll predict a gritty 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Expect Plenty of Points When Chiefs Face Buffalo

Last Monday did not go according to plan for our Kansas City Chiefs, but they ended that night victorious. After KC looked unstoppable against Brady's Bucs in Week 4, Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders almost stunned the Chiefs at the last second. Speaking of stunning a team at the last second, the Bills are in town. The top two teams in the AFC, and perhaps the NFL, face off today for the first time since their insane playoff thriller. We never know how these meetings with the Buffalo Bills will go, but we can safely predict a bunch of points on the scoreboard.

Both the Chiefs and Bills have scored over 30 in three out of five weeks, which is more impressive than usual considering the lack of scoring throughout the rest of the league. 23.6 points per game gets a team into the top ten this year, whereas last year it took 26.5 points. It's hard to do better than Josh Allen's 424 passing yards and four touchdowns last week. The struggling KC secondary that got exposed by Davante Adams on Monday must now face a potentially more potent threat in Allen and Stefon Diggs. Opponents are compiling a 105.5 Passer Rating against the Chiefs' defense, which puts them at 28th in that statistic, while Buffalo is the league's best in this regard, holding opponents to a 67.8 Passer Rating.

Also, the Bills' secondary has 8 picks, and the Chiefs have just one. That seems like plenty of evidence to make me pick the Bills today, but I'm not doing it. There's just something about the Chiefs playing a bad game, win or lose, that makes them better in the following week. We can safely say KC plays up and down to their competition, so we should see them at their best again today. Despite Buffalo looking like legit Super Bowl contenders, and possibly frontrunners, I'm predicting that the Chiefs win another thriller, 38-34, and take the clear lead in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed.

Can KC Keep Crushing Revamped Raiders?

Each passing year makes me feel two years older and twice as confident that early October is the best chunk of time on the calendar. As playoff baseball and spooky season both begin, as the countless different shades of gold and red emerge from the trees around us, so, too, do the true identities of teams in the NFL. Our Kansas City Chiefs just racked up 41 points on one of football's greatest defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had allowed 27 total points in the three games prior to facing KC. The Chiefs scored more than that in the first half. How will Mahomes' offense fare tonight when they face a struggling Las Vegas Raiders defense?

Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. Only the Arizona Cardinals have fewer sacks per game. If they hope to keep this game close, the Raiders will need to succeed on third down. Their opponents' 35.42% conversion rate on third down is ranked a respectable 13th league-wide - three slots higher than KC's defense. The Chiefs' offense, on the other hand, converts slightly over 51% of its third down conversion attempts. Only the Buffalo Bills are more successful at moving the chains on third down.

The Raiders' offense just played their best game of the season so far, and more of that success might make tonight's game dramatic. Davante Adams caught nine passes from his former college QB Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns while also catching five passes. It's no surprise that Vegas' first win of the year came in the first game in which these guys both looked great.

Vegas may be improving, but the Chiefs already look like the best team in football. Only Josh Allen's Bills can argue that fact at this point. I think the Raiders will have every reason to come into this game motivated and ready to win. That means Vegas could keep this one close. If they do, history indicates that KC is still destined for victory and the Raiders are about to screw everything up for themselves. Such is the true identity of each team. With that in mind, I'm predicting a 31-24 victory for KC tonight.

Can KC Bounce Back With Win Over Brady's Bucs?

The teams meeting in this week's Sunday night game have quite a lot in common. Both teams are coming off disappointing defeats. Both teams are still Super Bowl contenders. Both teams started this season in shaky fashion. Both team's QB's will end their career as one of the game's all-time greats. Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes gets a ton of media attention, and for good reason, but Tom's Tampa Bay Buccanneers offense looks inefficient so far.

Tampa's offense ranks 24th in scoring and 27th in yardage. However, practically every Bucs receiver has struggled with injuries this season. Today, despite being listed as questionable, key Tampa wideouts Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones are all expected to play. This unit's cohesion will decide if the Bucs can finish a game with more than 20 points for the first time this season.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, already looks Lombardi-ready. No team in football allowed fewer points per game through three weeks, and only three teams allow lower total yardage. I guess averaging 17 points a game works just fine when the defense allows just 9 a game. While KC's defense has succeeded in pressuring opposing QB's, Tampa is one of only four teams who have more sacks than KC's 10. Whichever team can keep their superstar quarterback most comfortable will win tonight's game. Brady has Patrick's number throughout his career, and unless both these teams go on to reach the Big Game, this will be Mahomes' final chance for some payback.

This one should be close, and it could be a classic. Tampa's defense is legit, but their secondary still has flaws that Mahomes can exploit. I'm predicting a bounceback 24-21 victory for KC.