Luck Be a Lady Today, I Hope

A week after Jamaal Charles ran rampant on the Raiders, KC comes home for their last regular season game at Arrowhead. In what is probably a playoff matchup preview, the Chiefs welcome Andrew Luck and Indy to the snowy wasteland of Kansas City. Both teams say they won't save anything for the playoffs, and both teams are justified in their lies. Nonetheless, this game still has a chance of affecting playoff seeding for KC and Indy, so both teams will be going 100%.

For a division champ, the Colts are unremarkable. They rank 22^nd in overall offense and 19^th in defense league-wide, but Andrew Luck's 21/9 TD/INT ratio has helped to keep them in games, and his prowess as a comeback cultivator pushed them to a 9-5 record. Only five teams in the NFL have given up less sacks than Indy, which has allowed the talented youngster to stay accurate and smart in the pocket. Although he's harder to hate than any Raider, forcing Luck to fail today is historically relevant in a way that a win against Oakland could never be.

Not since the Montana years have the Chiefs won a playoff game, and today they're matched up against their probable opponent in this year's first round. A win today encourages a team and a fan base enough to think a deep playoff run is possible and a win in the first round is probable. Just try to wrap your head around how big a difference that is from how you felt as a fan this time last year. It looks like KC's Santa Claus is actually a Mormon with a walrus-style mustache.

Here are today's five predictions:

1- Indy upgraded their core of offensive skill players this offseason, but they're still mediocre at best without Reggie Wayne. T.Y Hilton will be today's biggest threat, and the Chiefs know it. KC will force Luck to beat them by spreading the ball around or running through them. Expect Luck to give four Colts not named Hilton at least two receptions each today.

2- Robert Mathis is the only linebacker in the league with more sacks than Tamba Hali or Justin Houston. Look for Smith to get dropped by this beefy, underrated vet at least once today.

3- Although Luck's been well-protected and kept picks to a minimum, he still fumbles the ball too often. In 30 NFL starts, he's fumbled the ball 15 times. Look for DC Bob Sutton to send a blind-side blitz that causes a key turnover today.

4- Because of Indy's familiarity with Donnie Avery, who played with the Colts last season, his production will be limited. The entire passing game, in fact, will be stymied by today's snowy, icy conditions in Kansas City. That leaves the door open for 25 to strengthen his bid for Offensive MVP. The Colts have the league's 27^th ranked rushing defense, so look for Jamaal to average more than 6 yards per carry in this game.

5- Thanks to favorable weather conditions, a fantastic home field advantage and an offense that's finding its stride, the Chiefs should come out with a win today. KC wins 30-24 in a gritty, exciting ball game. At least that's what I'm hoping, since only a Broncos loss to Houston or Oakland can make next week anything more than a meaningless scrimmage in San Diego.

A New Reason To Hate

Thanks to a Denver defeat on Thursday, the rest of the regular season just became a hell of a lot more interesting for Chiefs Kingdom. KC is again technically tied with the Broncos atop the AFC West, but they'll need to win out and witness another Denver loss to claim that sexy #2 seed. That makes this afternoon's game in Oakland far more relevant than most Raider Haters imagined it would be entering the week. After a borderline-pitiful trouncing of the Redskins, KC should be coming into The Pit or The Black Zone or whatever with plenty of confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Don't tell me what they call it. I don't care.

This Chiefs offense has finally started to find their rhythm in the last few games. Regardless of what many will say about a lethargic effort from Washington last week, KC has been playing their best offense of the year, ever since that exciting but ultimately infuriating loss to San Diego. It's no surprise that Jamaal Charles' best rushing performance of the year coincided with the Chiefs' highest scoring game. Thanks to some relentless early-game scoring, the Redskins' chance of winning dropped below 1% in less than 20 minutes of game-time (according to the game's Win Probability graph.)

The defense obviously did their part, holding a listless Redskins offense to 10 points and 257 yards and sacking RGIII five times. Last week's game and this weeks game, alike should serve as confidence boosters for the Chiefs D, as well as further proof that they can succeed without Justin Houston – against subpar opponents, at least. The real test will come when Houston is healthy and facing off against Andrew Luck and the Colts, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. For now, there is still plenty of friendly, good-hearted competition to be had with those highly-respected and well-renowned Oakland Raiders.

With another loss last week, Oakland guaranteed themselves another losing season and a full decade of being losers. The Raiders haven't recorded a winning season since 2002, which is a stat that makes any jokes about them just seem cheap at this point. That's not like kicking a man while he's down, it's like kicking a crippled, syphilitic old woman after she falls down the stairs. So, I refuse to stoop to that level. No talk about their embarrassing QB situation, not from me. No mentioning their loss earlier this season against the same team KC just dominated last week, no sir or madam. I'm better than that.

Here are my five predictions for today's game.

1- Most KC fans are confident in their defense by this point, especially when Houston returns, so it seems clear that the offense's improvement will largely determine their chance of success in the playoffs. Only 8 teams give up more points per game than Oakland, which means this game shouldn't be much of a test. Nonetheless, the Chiefs need to avoid playing down to their competition and dominate this game. Expect KC to extend their 3-game streak of scoring 30+ points.

2- Not to be outdone by Knile Davis' franchise record-tying return, Quintin Demps brought one back in Washington to give KC the most touchdowns from kickoff and punt returns of anyone in the league. While they may not get a chance to return another one this afternoon (if the Raiders are smart), they should still dominate on special teams. Look for KC to average at least 8 more yards per return than Oakland.

3- The surprisingly decent Matt McGloin will get his fifth start today. Expect him to complete at least 58% of his passes, but also expect a KC defender, maybe Marcus Cooper, to bait him into an interception.

4- While McGloin has been mildly successful, Oakland's offensive line still struggles to keep him safe in the pocket. The Raider's O-Line has allowed the 5th-most sacks in the NFL. Expect Tamba to get at least one of at least 5 sacks on the Raider rookie QB today.

5- It would only make sense, in a frustratingly poetic kind of way, for the Chiefs to lose today. Regardless of their record and overall hopelessness, the Raiders are going to want this game bad. Beating their playoff-bound rivals in Oakland is probably the last thing the Raiders have to play for this season. However, that Thursday loss from Denver should be enough to keep KC playing hard and staying focused against inferior competition. Chiefs win, 30-17, and hope for that #2 seed stays alive for at least another week.

Doug LaCerte runs this blog and writes for Rant Sports. Follow him on Twitter @DLaC67, send him your distasteful Raiders jokes on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

Welcoming the Return of Winning Ways in Washington

Okay Chiefs fans, time to move on from all that Denver drama. Believe it or not, the regular season continues this Sunday, and the Washington Redskins have no sympathy for KC's recent woes. The last three games were all hard-fought losses that shouldn't shake KC's personality as a football team overall. A loss to the struggling Redskins could send the Chiefs on a desperate search for their lost identity.

Washington struggles defensively and through the air on offense, but their rushing game is at the top of the league. A combination of RGIII and Alfred Morris makes Washington the #1 ranked running team in the NFL. It's a poetic sign of the times that this elite rushing attack has earned the Skins a 3-9 record and a firm grasp of last place in their division. Griffin has thrown 11 picks this year, and an uninspiring offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 15 times in the last 3 games.

While the QB deserves much of the blame since he will always earn the credit for success, but RGIII shouldn't be the only Redskin held accountable. AdvancedNFLStats.com ranks only one Redskin receiver within the top 75 (Pierre Garcon at #20) in order of Win Probability Added. For the sake of comparison, three Chiefs receivers rank in the top 75, but all of them (Avery, Bowe and McCluster, in that order) rank below Garcon. With both teams boasting strong running games and iffy pass attacks, viewers of tomorrow's game can expect the clock to keep running and this game to move very quickly.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's game in Washington:

1- Alfred Morris ranks 6^th league-wide in Win Probability Added by a running back. Look for Morris to gain at least 80 yards and Griffin to make up the rest to make it five consecutive games in which KC gave up at least 100 yards on the ground. This should keep the game closer, and lower-scoring, than most would expect.

2- Another matchup that should keep this game competitive is Redskin linebackers vs. Chief offensive tackles. Branden Albert is injured for Sunday's game, leaving Donald Stephenson to fill his place on the line. Stephenson has impressed many in the past few weeks as a fill-in, but the Redskins will do whatever they can to utilize Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan in this game. Although I'm expecting a win, I'm also expecting at least two sacks allowed by KC's offensive line.

3- The Washington defense ranks 23^rd in yards allowed per game and gives up the 2^nd most points per game in the league. Despite some pressure on Alex Smith, expect the Chiefs to score 30+ points for the third straight week.

4- An angry secondary with a bruised ego should bounce back against a less imposing QB this week. Expect RGIII to give up at least one pick and gain less than 250 yards through the air.

5- After limping into the first face-off with Denver after two ugly games against subpar opponents, the Chiefs were sent reeling on a three-game losing streak. This Sunday, the opposite effect should take place. After standing strong against two powerful teams in three weeks, KC should come into tomorrow's game with plenty of confidence and a huge chip on their shoulder. An emerging Chiefs offense should be able to outscore the struggling Skins. KC finally returns to their winning ways with a 30-20 win in Washington.

Oh, and if you're wondering, KC needs to win out and see Peyton lose twice against the Titans, Chargers, Texans and Raiders in order to reclaim the #2 seed. While the odds aren't in KC's favor, a Denver loss to Tennessee tomorrow could make the rest of the regular season waaay more interesting for fans in the Kingdom. Stay tuned to CBS after tomorrow's noon-time Chiefs game to see if the Broncos can choke enough to keep KC's hopes for a home playoff game alive.

UPDATE: Actually, if you're a SureWest subscriber like myself, you won't be seeing the Broncos game. Instead, CBS will be showing the Deer Valley Celebrity Skifest. Fantastic.

A Distillation of Hope

I had admittedly low hopes heading into last Sunday's game against Denver. After joyously shouting at my TV screen through the first 20 minutes of that game, I started to think myself a pessimist. Then, as Manning continued to lob bombs through KC's secondary for score after score, reality set in and confirmed my most pressing fears.

Last week's game was tightly contested, and the offense deserves a bulk of the credit for keeping it close. While the defense gave up 35+ points for the second week in a row, the offense never looked better. With a balanced passing attack and a healthy dose of Jamaal, the Chiefs scored 21 points in 20 minutes and gained 452 yards. Five different Chiefs caught at least 3 passes from a remarkably accurate Alex Smith. Donnie Avery's heartbreaking drops happened, but holy crap, let's just never talk about that.

All the offensive productivity witnessed last Sunday was unfortunately trumped by failure on the defensive side of the ball. An injury-riddled KC defense gave up an embarrassing 535 yards for 35 points against the dreaded Peyton-led offense. While it was nice to see the team get hits on Manning with such a pieced-together blitz game, those moments were few and far between. In the end, the longest play in Chiefs history and a positive turnover ratio still weren't enough to help KC outscore the vaunted Denver offense.

After all their defensive struggles, KC still found themselves within one red-zone reception of tying the game with 1:51 left in the game. Getting that close may have proven some things to Kansas City and its fans, but it didn't earn the team a win.

So is it time to panic, Chiefs Kingdom? After a wondrous, undefeated beginning to the 2013 season, KC is now reeling from three straight losses. Although the sky is not yet falling, the ceiling on expectations for this team has certainly been lowered. The Chiefs are all-but locked into the #5 seed, thanks to that defeat at Arrowhead last Sunday. That means road games in the playoffs, and that means greatly diminished chances for KC's first Super Bowl in more than 40 years.

The Chiefs now need to focus on finishing the season strong. One or two late-season losses against inferior opponents could send the Chiefs limping into the playoffs. If you can remember how that usually turns out for KC, you're probably cringing at the possibility right now. That makes the matchup on every coming Sunday just as important as the last three insanely dramatic games we've just witnessed. Stay tuned for a look at the upcoming face-off with RGIII and the struggling-but-talented Washington Redskins.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and writes for Rantsports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DLaC67, "Like" his awesomely cheesy "Feel Good Songs of the Day" on Facebook and add him to your network on Google. Credit for the linked photo goes to GIFD Sports.

Chiefs/Broncos Round 2: An Arduous Attempt at Arrowhead

Well, shit. I didn't see that coming, but who did? Who would have predicted that the Chiefs would lose the cornerstones of their blitz game, and the offense would put up 38 points in a losing effort? Last week's game with the Chargers was about as fun as they get, until the very end. If only the Chiefs could have bled a few more seconds off the clock, we could be talking about a one-loss team with an offense that's finally coming to life. Instead, KC heads into their second game with Denver with some serious doubts and concerns.

If not for some lofty injuries, KC could be looking at this game with confidence in their ability to make things interesting. Unfortunately, after the roster went largely unblemished throughout the first half of the season, the Chiefs will again be seriously hindered today by injuries. Justin Houston will definitely miss this game, and Tamba Hali, Eric Fisher, Jon Asamoah and Mike DeVito are all questionable. Devito missed Friday practice for non-injury reasons, and the rest of the aforementioned players had limited participation in practices throughout the week.

If the Chiefs can make this game close, it could be one for the history books. Do they really have what it takes to limit Peyton with a downgraded defense and make this a tight game? My five predictions inspire less hope than I'd like to admit.

1- KC needs to win the turnover ratio to stop this game from getting out of hand, let alone winning. Their failure to do so over the last two weeks has resulted in KC's only two losses of the season. I'll try for a third time to predict a positive ratio for KC that helps them keep this game close.

2- Jamaal finally went off last week, after getting a chance on some screen passes and getting some holes to shoot through on running downs. Denver isn't stupid enough to let #25 burn them today, so look for other options to come open with much of the attention on Charles. Dexter McCluster and Donnie Avery should combine for at least 6 catches and 150 yards of offensive production this afternoon.

3- The Chiefs have been steadily productive on special teams, but they need to pull out all the stops to win today. Expect one big play to flip the field for KC and keep things tense for Peyton and the Broncos.

4- Whether it's Moreno or Montee Ball at RB, Denver will continue its success with running the ball. DeVito is an undervalued veteran on that defensive line whose impact will be sorely missed on running downs today. Expect Denver to pick up at least 90 yards on the ground against that hobbling KC defense.

5- Without the ability to get pressure on the league's best QB, KC's secondary is bound to struggle. Manning's ability to shred the Chiefs through the air will be the key to a disappointing loss. Peyton throws for at least 375 yards to win 38-24 and hand the Chiefs their third straight loss. Ugh. I'd really love to be wrong about this one.

A Return to Winning Ways?

This week, the Chiefs relished in having a very good problem on their hands. For the first time this season, KC must now learn to react to a loss. In a long-awaited return to Arrowhead, the Chiefs will have San Diego and the often-unbearable Philip Rivers to overcome this week. How will they react to their first defeat, and how often will Philip Rivers make you, for any of numerous reasons, want to slap him through your TV screen?

The Chiefs return to Arrowhead for the first time since November 3^rd for the teams' 107^th matchup. The 4-6 Chargers have won the last two meetings and 8 of the last 10. In their first year with former Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy at the helm, the Chargers are potent but unpredictable. They started the year 2-3, fought their way back to a winning record, then promptly plummeted to their current position below .500 with a three-game losing streak. They've won against the Colts and played well against Denver, yet they lost to Oakland and Tennessee.

Kansas City is looking to return to their winning ways and avoid the start of a potentially mojo-killing losing streak. This is a huge game we'll be watching. With another face-off against Denver looming seven days in the distance, the Chiefs have a talented and bitterly angry squad to deal with. Will KC be able to overcome Rivers and Sandy Eggo at home today? Finish up with my five predictions to find out.

1- Ryan Mathews will absolutely not have the kind of day he had against Miami last week, when he took 18 carries for 127 yards. Look for the Chiefs to cut that yardage nearly in half today, limiting him to 70 yards or less on the ground.

2- An angry Jamaal Charles, on the other hand, should abuse the 16^th ranked running defense in the league. Doug Pederson gets wise and connects with him on at least two successful screen passes as well, giving #25 at least 110 total yards today.

3- Once again, KC probably needs to win the turnover ratio to win the game. Expect Shaun Smith, Marcus Cooper or both of them to snag a timely pick.

4- Rivers will get big yardage through the air, at least 300 yards, without turning it into a win.

5- At least three times, Rivers whines and makes facial expressions that anyone beyond elementary school should be embarrassed to make, as the Chiefs go on to win 20-17. I really do love to hate that guy.

One-Loss Woes, and Why They're Overblown

The first loss of the season is never fun. No matter when or how it comes, it will always bring with it new feelings of fear and uncertainty. This year, it came after a surprising 9-0 start that provoked just as much commendation as it did scrutiny. How bad will this hurt the team, and what does it say about their ability to compete against the league's best?

We should all take a deep breath, Chiefs fans. This loss doesn't prove KC to be a fraud in any way, as humbling as it may now feel. If anything, the Chiefs proved yesterday that they're just a couple adjustments away from beating the Broncos with their style of football.

The Chiefs held the Broncos to their lowest points total and Manning to his lowest completion percentage all year. That says a lot when you consider that KC never got to Manning all night. I predicted that Peyton would dink and dunk KC to death and limit sacks, but I sure as hell didn't think he'd go completely unblemished. It seems the Chiefs DC Bob Sutton was unwilling to blitz often, which is something he'll need to remedy in the very near future. Sadly, that's just one of the ways coaching lost this game for Kansas City.

Jamal Charles touched the ball 18 times last night. 7 of his 16 rushes went between the tackles, and his 2 receptions (for -6 yards) came with less than a minute left in the 4^th quarter, when the game was effectively over. While running up the gut clearly isn't Jamaal's specialty, the coaching staff can't be blamed for that one. KC's offensive line struggled, especially at the tackle positions, and their inadequacy allowed way too many rushing attempts to fail. To succeed on offense, OC Doug Pederson and the rest of the offense have to figure out ways to give their best asset big-play potential. Wasn't Jamaal supposed to be the new Brian Westbrook or Lesean McCoy? Please, give that man a damn screen pass.

Without properly using their most valuable player, winning the turnover ratio, sacking (or even knocking down) the opposing QB or completing half their passes on offense, the Chiefs still had Peyton furrowing his massive brow in concern until the last few minutes of the 4^th quarter. KC should be able to improve their blitz game, give Jamaal the ball in open space to beat Denver at home two weeks from now. Before that fateful game, the Chiefs have the impressively whiny Philip Rivers to deal with next Sunday. Tune in later this week for a look at the upcoming divisional face-off against the Chargers at Arrowhead.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and writes a bunch of other stuff for Rant Sports. Follow him @DlaC67 for more Philip Rivers hatred, send any and all funny Chiefs GIFs to him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

Bye Week Breakdown Part 2: More Mile High Moments

Game day is here, Chiefs fans, and what a game it should be. Tonight's matchup at Mile High with Peyton and the Broncos is arguably the biggest regular season game in decades. Here, we have the league's best offense facing off against its best defense. Now that they're led by the same legendary quarterback that booted KC from the playoffs time and time again, the Broncos have become the two-headed monsters of bitter rivalry.

Both teams' impressively high level of play now makes the rivalry even more heated. These teams' combined winning percentage is the highest of any late-season matchup in the NFL since 1969. Tonight, we could be watching the most intriguing Broncos/Chiefs game since 15 years and 1 day ago, when Shannon Sharp recited Derrick Thomas' girlfriend's phone number to him before every snap. Win or lose, this game is destined to go down on the list of all-time great Broncos/Chiefs battles.

If you're not excited about this, you're soulless, and I don't think we could ever be friends.

When it comes to predicting a winner in this game, a lot of the focus will, and should go to Peyton and this studly Chiefs defense. However, it will be the Denver defense that will stop Manning from pulling away more than anything else. Only seven teams have allowed more points to be scored, and only five have given up more first downs. Denver actually allows more than twice as many points per game (26.4) as Kansas City (12.3).

Turnovers could be another huge factor in this game. While the Chiefs still comfortably lead the league in turnover ratio at +15, the Broncos are sitting in the bottom half at -2. Alex Smith continues to impress with his smart, conservative play, and the special teams squads have executed to great effect without any fumble problems (better knock on wood for that one.)

A win tonight proves a small nation of Chiefs naysayers wrong and shows that KC has it was takes to beat legit competition. A loss gives the Chiefs a tie for the divisional lead and a new sense of insecurity. We know this team is fallible, but we also know they can win close, hard-fought games. Thing is, those hard-fought games have often come against mediocre competition. After tonight, we'll have a better understanding of how they can contend against the league's best teams in the upcoming playoffs again (go ahead and knock on wood again, just in case.) Here are my five predictions for tonight:

1- The Chiefs, who still lead the league in sacks with 36, will look to muck things up for Denver by never giving Manning time to breath. Unfortunately, this forces football's quickest-thinking improviser to, uhh, improvise quickly. KC's offense keeps this one close, and a couple timely turnovers make it even closer. In the end, well-executed screen plays and at least one blown coverage gives Denver the edge. 27-23 Broncos, but man do I hope I'm wrong.

2- Alex Smith is an underrated passer, and Andy Reid isn't afraid of going over the top. Look for Smith to get his first huge connection with Donnie Avery against the aging, struggling Denver secondary. Beers will be spilled in the Chiefs Kingdom.

3- The offensive lines for both teams are flawed, but that won't necessarily translate into a lot of sacks. Expect a lot of hits on the quarterback, but don't expect a boatload of sacks from Tamba and/or Houston. Neither team will sack the opposing QB more than 4 times tonight.

4- Both Smith and Manning will be looking to get the ball out of their hands ASAP tonight, and both QBs are known for being smart and decisive. Despite constant pressure, expect both of them to complete over 60% of their passes.

5- The Chiefs love scoring in unorthodox ways. Expect at least one score from the defense or special teams in the second half to make wrinkles of concern appear on Peyton's billboard-like forehead.


Doug LaCerte operates this blog and does a bunch of other writing for Rant Sports. Trade jokes about Peyton's bulbous head with him on Twitter @DLaC67, "Like" his rude comments about John Elway's teeth on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

Bye Week Breakdown Part 1: Hopes and Fears

 The Chiefs are now more than halfway through their two-week Peyton preparation, and fans are awaiting this week's Sunday Night Game O' The Week with high hopes and chewed up fingernails. Before we get into some in-depth Bronco talk, let's take a look at how the Chiefs got this far without a loss to their name.

KC entered this opportunely timed bye week after pulling out an unimpressive win against the lowly, injury-riddled Buffalo Bills. Once again, the Chiefs proved that they can make a game exciting in the ugliest of ways. Despite plenty of errant play, KC yet again found a new way to win – just outscore the other team with your defense. Oh, and get really damn lucky.

A multitude of dropped passes by Buffalo receivers, an Alex Smith fumble that absolutely should have been recovered by the Bills' starting punt returner Leonis McKelvin, a horribly overthrown pass from an unknown QB for an easy pick, several missed Bills tackles that included would-be sacks, a 100-yard INT return for a touchdown and several more fortunate turns of events helped the Chiefs to their current undefeated status.

People are pointing out this kind of thing constantly in the Chiefs Kingdom. Although the record remains unblemished, fans know this team has barely snuck away with more than one win against a sub-par opponent. How scared should fans be about facing Peyton at Mile High?

Pretty god damn scared. Were you expecting me to lie or something? This upcoming game is worthy of our fear, if only because it will be the biggest test so far for a team that has barely been passing the NFL equivalent of elementary school spelling quizzes lately. The Chiefs' last two games were harrowing, and they leave fans to wonder how their team will fare against legitimate, playoff-caliber competition.

In their last game, the Chiefs defense gave up 470 yards to a 3-5 Bills team led by a third-string QB. The week prior they allowed Jason Campbell to throw for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks and a 61% completion percentage. Fans have every reason to fear the most prolific quarterback in the league when their secondary has been this porous.

This weekend, the Report will return to explain why your hopes are just as legitimate as your fears. Tune in then to get a more in-depth breakdown explaining why the defense, on both sides of the ball, could make this game much more interesting than Donkey fans would like to admit.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and does a bunch of other stuff for RantSports. Make him feel falsely important by following his Twitter @DlaC67, leave him rude comments on his Facebook and add him to your network on Google. 

A Pattern of Success

After the Broncos' grin-inducing defeat last Sunday, your very own Kansas City Chiefs now stand alone as the only undefeated team in the NFL. With another tough victory against the Texans, the Chiefs found another way to win an important game (while still winning in the exact same way? I'll get that to make sense later in the article.) After playing through seven weeks and overcoming numerous legitimate teams, the nation is starting to take notice. This is no anomaly, no matter how nail-bitingly close some of those battles may have been.

This team is finding new ways to win, sorta. What I mean is, every game is different, and they've taken different paths to victory in different circumstances against different types of teams. But, they win with the same formula every game. A tremendous weight is put on a great defense to keep the momentum in their favor with constant pressure and multiple crucial stops, and they've proven their ability to do just that. Special teams tilts the field in KC's favor, and the offense finds a way to put up points, if only when they absolutely need them.

The Chiefs are becoming predictable, in a good way. Mistakes are expected to be limited, the defense is expected to stand strong time after time, and the offense is expected to do just enough with Jamaal and its other pieces to barely outscore the opposition. Most importantly, the Chiefs are now expected to win tough games against competitive teams. These expectations come from a pattern of success, and the stats back up their methods in every important facet of that pattern.

KC is one of only five teams with 10 or more INTs, and they lead the league in defensive points scored and points allowed per game. KC's sack total, 35, is 10 more than anyone in the NFL so far this season. The offense isn't as statistically impressive, as anyone paying attention could safely assume. However, they do lead the league in the all-important turnover ratio, and it's not even close. Three teams are tied for 2^nd place at +7, two are at +6 and five at +5. The Chiefs' ratio currently sits at +11.

Many fans hold their breath now, waiting for the regression to the mean, and I don't blame them. Jamaal may fumble less than most backs with that running style, but he probably still fumbles more than the average running back. Charles averages 4 fumbles in every 16 games played. Only four running backs lost that many fumbles in 2012, and only one did so in 2011. Alex Smith can be trusted to keep the picks at a minimum, but multiple errant passes have bounced off opposing players' numbers this year. Some of those drops will inevitably turn into interceptions, so keep holding your breath. Those drops are just one of many factors keeping the Chiefs unbeaten that are out of KC's control.

Some critics will point to all of Houston's injuries and tout them as the reasons Kansas City won last Sunday. While it's hard to argue with Schaub, Foster, Cushing and others not influencing the game, their replacements weren't slouches. Case Keenum looked way more NFL-ready than virtually anyone would have expected, Tate is a respectable, sturdy back, and the defense still had enough firepower to hold Kansas City to two touchdowns and a field goal. No one can say how the game would have played out with the aforementioned starters in their normal roles. They can only say that Houston put a competitive team out there at game time, and the Chiefs beat them.

A lot of things have gone the Chiefs' way, but that shouldn't take away anything from their 7-0 start. When the decisive moment came in every game this year, whether on offense, defense or special teams, this team stepped up. The gritty, often-ugly fashion in which they've won should simultaneously act as a reminder that the team is imperfect and a statement that they know how to do whatever it takes to get a win.

Whether or not fans in Chiefs Kingdom will admit it, this will to win is going to be legitimately challenged again this Sunday. Each level of competition poses a different psychological challenge, and losing to the lowly Browns is just poetic enough to be feasible. I keep telling myself that this team will lose as soon as they expect winning to be automatic. After a successful but emotional start to the season, this Browns game are as close to that psychological hurdle as they've come so far.

I'll guess that this mental weariness makes the game close in the first half, yet again, but that Andy Reid and the rest of the coaching staff know this issue well enough to prepare the team for it. Reid has been around for a long time, and this potential trap game won't sneak up on him or the Chiefs this Sunday. The first half may be aggravating, but I'm predicting that another win should be comfortably within grasp by the beginning of the 4^th quarter. Official prediction: the Chiefs go 8-0 to start the season, as I do my damnedest to get the Broncos matchup off my mind long enough to prepare for the upcoming Bills game.

Doug LaCerte is a freelance journalist and a writer for Rant Sports. Argue with him on Twitter @DLaC67, leave him a disparaging comment on Facebook, and add him to your circle on Google. 

Fighting for Week 5 Greatness

Well, there was no “getting lucky” this time. There was no nail-biting finish, no tense final drive to inch out a victory. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, starters were being benched and the game was comfortably in the Chiefs' hands. In a game that Kansas City cynics would say was destined to be disappointing, the team defended their unbeaten status with a blowout against a desperate, talented football team. The Chiefs defense made a two-time Super Bowl winner quiver in his little blue boots. The offense finally stepped up to score when it counted. All the signs that Chiefs Kingdom needs in order to go completely nuts are right here. It's time to go crazy.

But, how will KC fare against the up-and-coming Tennessee Titans? Tennessee seems to be playing their best ball since the Steve McNair days. The Titans have a stout defense, a conservative, smart QB and a speedster running back that the team relies on to move the ball on offense. Sound familiar? It looks like the Chiefs will get a taste of their own medicine today against Tennessee, but their overall stats signify that KC has the edge.

The Titans have allowed the 9^th fewest yards in the NFL so far, but the Chiefs rank 7^th. Tennessee has an offense capable of winning, but not capable of scoring big points against a decent defense. The Titans rank 29^th in the league in yards earned, whereas KC ranks closer toward the middle of the pack at 17^th. Two of Tennessee's three games were won by a touchdown or less, scoring 16 against Pittsburgh and 20 against San Diego. But, the Texans are the only team to score more than 17 points against that tough Tennessee defense.

The Titans will attempt to hit this team in the mouth right out of the gate. A team that likes to get physical like this is dangerous, especially after an emotional start to the season. If the Chiefs come into this game thinking a victory is automatic, they will lose. The Titans are a very similar team that will give KC a legitimate challenge to overcome today. If the Chiefs have too many hiccups on the offense, or they turn the ball over often, this will be a real disappointment. If KC can play their game and control the ball, they should be able to take the Titans down. The Chiefs fight and scrape to win, as they often do, and pull out a victory today, 20-13.

5 Reasons This Giants Game Is Totally Trap-Tastic

Be afraid, Chiefs fans. Be very afraid. Although KC is undefeated and the Giants are winless, this is a trap game for numerous reasons. At least five of ‘em.

1- An accurate QB is this team’s kryptonite. The defense had to be great in order to counter Romo and Dez Bryant, and even Vick gouged the Chiefs for huge chunks of yardage at a time, in a game which could’ve been very different if not for the +5 turnover ratio. Speaking of which…

2- This streak of turnover-less football is certainly impressive, but it only makes sense that it comes to an end today. Expect a pick, or a fumble, or something. It’s simply been too long without one. The Giants are 31^st in the league in turnover ratio, but they just plain aren’t that bad. Something is bound to change.

3- The Giants lost 38-0 last week, giving Carolina their most one-sided win in franchise history, and only the 4^th regular season shutout in team history. Today’s game is as much of a must-win as you can find this early in the season. Think they’ll be motivated?

4- Jason Pierre-Paul still plays for New York, as does a still-legit defense. The Giants rank 17^th league-wide in passing yards allowed against Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Cam Newton-led offenses.

5- I hate to say it, but the Chiefs are lucky to be undefeated. The Chiefs’ offense was struggling against Dallas, but, thanks to turnovers and defense, KC snuck away with a W. The next week, the Chief’s offense was struggling against Philly, but, thanks to turnovers and defense, KC snuck away with a win. See a pattern here? If the Chiefs wish to really prove themselves as a top-shelf NFL team, the offense has to come together, and soon.

Thankfully, I believe they’ll take steps toward that today. Although this is indeed a trap game for the ages, KC should be able to pull out another gritty victory at home today. In a tense game, the D holds strong long enough for the Chiefs to get their act together on the other side of the ball. Chiefs win, 23-20.

3 Stats Each For the Optimists and Pessimists

A perfect record through the third week of the season has Chiefs Kingdom riled up and ready for Sunday's home game against the win-less New York Giants. Though some fans are already drifting to sleep with playoff visions swirling around in their eager minds, others are beginning to notice chinks in the armor. This team has a disproportionate ratio of believers to naysayers, but sadly, the skeptics present valid points. Today, I offer three messages each for the overly-optimistic Chiefs fan and the justifiably paranoid critic in an effort to (once again) simultaneously curb enthusiasm and relieve the woes of doubt. Let's start with a few distressing stats, if only for the sake of finishing in a happier mood.

1- A seemingly much-improved offensive line has allowed the 10^th most sacks and tackles for a loss in the NFL. The offense is losing an average of 11 yards per game on sacks, which is middle-of-the-road for the league so far this year.

Eric Fisher's effectiveness will be a huge factor in determining the success of this offense. That right tackle position is crucial in almost any situation- deep pass protection, setting up big run plays and earning YAC with short passes. His inability to seal the right side led to sacks and collapsed pockets on several occasions Thursday night. Fletcher Cox and Connor Barwin made him truly look like a rookie for the first time. Fisher did better in Dallas against a presumably stronger defense, so it leaves one to wonder. Only time will tell if the Philly defense is better than most assumed it would be, or if Fisher has trouble with that specific defensive scheme.

2- While a win's a win, the last two wins looked ugly on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs showed signs of weakness against a mediocre defense on Sunday, then again against a downright bad defense on Thursday in Philadelphia. Only the Raiders and the Rams have scored fewer points against teams the Chiefs have played this season. Thank goodness for a badass defense, which we'll get into later this week.

3- In a league dominated by passing and elite quarterbacks, KC's Alex Smith has thrown for 669 yards, ranking 24^th overall in the NFL. That's 474 yards behind the league leader in pass yards, Peyton Manning. Although fans know the teams' strengths lie elsewhere, it's still unsettling to think that the offense is producing only 58% of the passing yardage as our most significant divisional rival.

So sure, the offense has shown the fans its ugly side. It's a finesse-y kind of system that can look really bad without the proper rhythm. Alex Smith hasn't thrown for more than 275 yards in a single game, and that probably won't change much. That doesn't mean it can't do enough to win- but shit, we already knew that. 3-0 baby! Let's not forget the things that got the Chiefs this far without a loss.

1- Jamaal is one catch behind Matt Forte for the most receptions by a running back this year. For all the fans praying that 25 wouldn't be under-utilized, this may be the most promising stat of all. His limited, but consistent production running the ball will only get better over time- both through the season, and through each game. Andy Reid's strategy to slice through tired defenses with Jamaal in the 4^th quarter is a wise one. Whether Charles is catching the ball out of the backfield, lining up in the slot or running the ball traditionally, he will continue to be the bread and butter of this offense. That's comforting to anyone who cares about Chiefs football.

2- Zero turnovers. Still. That gives KC the best turnover ratio in the league at -9, and that's after two defenses got consistent pressure on Alex Smith. The Giants will prove to be an intriguing challenge, and the Texans will strike fear in the hearts of any O-line in the league. But, who else is going to put more pressure on the QB than that? This offense overcame one of their biggest tests on the schedule against Dallas, even if they just barely earned a passing grade.

3- Well, they're 3-0. That's a big deal. 75% of teams in the modern era that start the season with three straight wins reach the playoffs. The rest of the season looks to be moderately difficult at worst, and the Broncos are the only team on the schedule still without a loss. The door to the playoffs is wide open, and only Peyton's massive head stands in the way.

I'll be back later in the week to explain how this upcoming match-up against the Giants epitomizes the phrase “trap game”. Until then, let's forget about all that skepticism and enjoy the fact that the team is undefeated and KC's playoff chances look great. Let's save our negativity for that sad, fateful Sunday when we lose to the Browns (no way) or the Raiders (please don't.)

A Hopeful Home Opener Preview

On my list of least likable NFL teams, the over-hyped and under-performing Dallas Cowboys would have to rank 3^rd overall. Since the Raiders are presumably still a joke and we don't play Cincinnati this year, this Sunday will yield for me the most enjoyment I can attain from hating someone for this entire season. Let us revel in communal disgust as we discuss this upcoming Chiefs home opener.

Last year, Dallas' offensive line ranked 22^nd in the league in run blocking and 11^th in pass protection. This year, they've added two new linemen to the starting offense that have zero combined snaps in the NFL prior to last Sunday. DeMarco Murray ran the ball 20 times for 86 yards last week against the Giants. That's not an outstanding performance, nor is it an embarrassment, especially considering that the Cowboys held on for a week 1 victory. MJD's production last week? That was embarrassing.

Maurice Jones-Drew played his 100^th game and carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards, averaging 3 yards per rush. MJD was only held to a lower yard-per-carry average once in the two previous seasons. For the record, Jacksonville's offensive line ranked 17^th in run blocking last year, and with the addition of the almost-1^st overall draft pick Luke Joeckel, they're sure to rank higher in 2013.

The Cowboys will presumably counter the Chiefs' strength in stopping the run by bringing a pass-heavy offensive plan to Arrowhead this week. Romo, who is currently listed as probable for Sunday's game, completed 73.5% of his passes last week against a solid defense. He only averaged 5.4 yards per catch though, which is the lowest average he's ever recorded in a game with at least 4 completions.

The Chiefs, with an uber-athletic secondary that knows how to tackle in the open field, will hope to keep this trend going. If last week's performance is any indication of their chances, their chances look pretty damn good. Just don't forget that those numbers are artificially inflated by Jacksonville's overall crappiness. Gabbert completed 16 of 35 passes. That's less than a 46% completion percentage. He played so poorly, in fact, that he lost his job; Chad Henne will start for the Jags this week against Oakland. Bob Sutton should probably send him some kind of classy fruit basket.

The chess-match was totally dominated by Sutton last Sunday. 3 sacks by future-perennial-Pro Bowler Justin Houston and constant pressure on the quarterback will prove that as coaches review the game tape this week. Not only were Chiefs consistently getting behind enemy lines, they were often doing so untouched.

But how will the Chiefs' offense fare against the Cowboy's D? Feel free to use Wednesday's post for reference, keeping in mind the aforementioned bad-team-based inflation. Dallas gave up 450 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air last week. While Eli>Alex Smith, it's not by a lot, and I'm slowly starting to believe the hype that this offense could be at least as good as New York's. Dallas held the Giants' running backs to 42 yards in 12 carries, but they'll have a wholly different monster to deal with when it comes to Jamaal. My faith will always be with #25. Until Demarcus Ware eats him.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's home-opener-

1- KC doubles New York's yardage output from last week. That means 84 yards, at least. The offense surprised me last week with a somewhat balance run/pass ratio, so I expect Charles to get significant touches to keep the second level of the Dallas D on their toes. An emerging group of talented receivers will spread the defense out enough for Jamaal to slash and burn as only he can.

2- Romo's completion percentage will drop by at least 8 points, thanks to some applied pressure from KC linebackers.

3- Hali and Houston get at least a sack each, as Dallas struggles to decide which side of the line they should stack.

4- Kansas City earns 25 more yards with kickoff and punt returns than Dallas, as Ryan Succop begins his season without a miss. That's a prediction twofer right there. Lucky you.

5- I'm going to be a downer with my first call of the season, but only for the sake of the unknown. We really have no idea how this offense will react to a better defense, or how this defense will react to a real quarterback. I'm going to guess that the Chiefs will compete, but ultimately get outgunned at home. Chiefs lose, 27-24, and curb the enthusiasm of this tense, excited fan-base just a little bit. It may be disappointing, but unless it's a blowout it won't be enough to stop us from daydreaming about the playoffs. It should be “dropped your beer in the stands” disappointing, not “dropped your heart medicine in the ocean” disappointing. Still, nobody enjoys spilling their beer, so let's all hope I'm dead wrong.

Acing The Easy Test

Well, that's a good start. Take away that embarrassing first set-of-downs and subsequent blocked punt for a safety, and you're looking at a dominant shutout victory for the good guys. KC outperformed the Jaguars in every facet of the game, as they damn well should have. We'll look at the defensive performance later this week, and review some matchups for the upcoming game against Dallas. Today, we're taking a closer look at this new offense's first real-game performance. As always, everything about the offense begins with the quarterback- and holy crap, how things have changed.

Smith completed over 60% of his passes (21/34) and threw for 2 touchdowns to earn a 94.4 Quarterback Rating. For reference, Matt Cassel never achieved that QBR last season, and never threw 2 touchdowns in a game while completing 60% of his passes. This wasn't even a great game from Alex Smith. In fact, it was pretty average- his 2012 QBR was 104.1 and the year prior it was 90.7. He completed 70% of his passes last year, and 61% in 2011. Smith completed passes to 9 different Chiefs, including 4 passes to new fullback acquisition Anthony Sherman.

Some things still worry me about this offense: it isn't built to score early and often, and it isn't built to come back from behind. The quick pace, no-huddle offense wears the defense down with consecutive successful drives. Unfortunately, that fatigue won't show up until later in the game, meaning the Chiefs could have difficulties scoring early against top-tier defenses. Since the offense isn't made to strike fast and come back from a big deficit, this could be a problem with more competitive teams. Still, hypothesizing about how this offense will perform against playoff defenses is considerably more fun than hypothesizing about the number one draft pick.

Speaking of which, Eric Fisher looked strong and the running game was successful. At least to me, it was surprising to see Reid decide to run the ball as often as he did. Along with many other Chiefs fans, I was concerned that the run-game would take a back seat when Andy came to town. 24 run plays and one comfy victory later, I'm convinced that Reid knows how to use this team's talent to its full effect.

6 out of 7, and 9 out of the last 13 seasons began with 0-2 records for KC. For a team that never seems to take a strong first step, a solid performance from the offense and a nearly flawless outing from the defense in week 1 means a hell of a lot. This first test was about as easy as it could be, but the Chiefs passed it with flying colors. Step one for being a winning football team is beating the teams you're supposed to beat, and KC has proven it can do just that.

Many questions remain unanswered. We still don't know how these new-and-improved Chiefs will react to a playoff-caliber team. Thankfully, we don't have long to wait. This week, an all-together different, and much more difficult test comes to Arrowhead. We'll take a closer look at Romo and the Cowboys later this week. Don't you just hate 'em? I know I do.

3 Important Lists For Preseason Week 3

Here we go, Chiefs fans. The wait is kinda over. Today we can forget about training camp, team-building exercises and boring preseason press conferences. There's plenty to talk about and catch up on here, but for now we're keeping it (comparatively) simple. Today, we're talking about preseason Week 3- the first week of football that truly feels like football.

Week 3 of the preseason marks the official moment when actual play is important enough that yelling at TV screens becomes socially appropriate for the next five months or so. To celebrate that important milestone, I have 3 lists of 3 for Week 3. My goal today is to curb enthusiasm, temper negativity and point out important things for fans to keep their eyes on today, all with one oddly-structured welcome-back post.

3 Things to Watch For In Week 3

1- Dave Toub's effect on the special teams play. This post from Mellinger, and the hilarious accompanying video, showcases the positive change being made so far, but many fans will surely continue to underrate this aspect of the game. Probably for life. And it's a shame, considering we have some exciting tools to plug into a proven system that's already shown its ability to change a game completely. No one knows for sure if Devin Hester's success was a byproduct of his own talents or the Dave Toub system. Obviously, it must be a mixture of the two, but who's to say that Dexter McCluster doesn't have all the traits to be the next big deal on special teams? After witnessing the majority of an up-and-down, historically streaky baseball season, the length of the NFL season feels almost unjustly short to me. Every one of those 16 games is huge, and that makes every kick return for a touchdown either a devastating blow or an unequivocal advantage.

2- AJ Jenkin's ability, or lack thereof, to become a factor quickly. This goes for anybody else trying to gain a prominent role in this offense. Wanna guess who has the most catches on the roster? That would be rookie running back Knile Davis, with 7 receptions for 49 yards. To really get excited about this offense, fans need to see guys like Donnie Avery (1 catch for 6 yards this preseason) and AJ Jenkins (never caught an NFL pass) to step up. Especially after losing some heigth with the Baldwin/Jenkins trade, Reid will look to counter this lack of size with a small army of shorter-than-average skill players. Those little guys will make a big difference in Kansas City's 2013 playoff hopes.

3- The secondary's effectiveness in containing another quality QB. Roethlisberger comes into tonight's game with a 3-1 career record against the Chiefs. In those games, he's completed 70.9% of his 110 pass attempts. Limiting Big Ben to a lower percentage would be a welcome sign of improvement for this new and, hopefully, improved secondary. The only other starting QB with significant playing time against this Chiefs defense is Drew Brees. He completed 7 of 10 for 65 yards, but it took the impressive accuracy that you'd expect from Brees and few else to make the Chiefs' secondary look small.

3 Things to Remember When the Chiefs Look Great

1- It's the preseason. Everything is still vanilla on either side of the ball, and within that context athleticism rules the day. Don't be overly-wooed by good play from returning Chiefs. Let's not forget that last year's team posted the worst record in franchise history with the same 5 Pro Bowlers that will take the field today. Tight coverage from Brandon Flowers and jaw-dropping plays from Jamaal Charles are nothing new to Kansas City, and by themselves they won't save the Chiefs from another disappointing season. I know Derrick Johnson is great, I know Tamba's a beast, and I dedicated a whole post to the unheralded greatness of Dustin Colquitt. If KC wants to change their losing ways, fans need to see productivity from someone new. I'm looking at you, Alex Smith.

2- Keep in mind when this offense looks impressive and efficient that it's still limited. Don't let anything fool you into thinking Alex Smith has an arm capable of spreading the field. He just doesn't. This is going to bring consternation from the fan-base, and probably some mostly-undeserved flack to Andy Reid's hairy ear-holes. The third WR spot is also a topic of legitimate concern. The team website's unofficial depth chart lists Junior Hemingway and AJ Jenkins as starters at the 3^rd WR position. These two have a combined total of exactly zero catches in the NFL.

3- Think Sean Smith looks great? He does, until he gets burnt, which happens frequently. His ball-hawking often resulted in big gains for the opposing team during his years with Miami. In four seasons, his gambling yielded only 5 picks in 63 games, which averages out to 0.079 interceptions per game, or 0.98 per season. I know it's early to be skeptical, but getting snickered at by Dolphins fans is a bad omen. I though I could skip my preseason ritual of stocking up on blood pressure medication, especially when Javier Arenas left town (one last dig on that guy, check.) I just hope this new, talented-but-dangerous cornerback doesn't send me running back to the drugstore in jittery rage this year.

3 Things to Remember When The Chiefs Look Awful

1- It's the preseason. The success of the 2013 Chiefs will depend greatly on the effectiveness of a completely new coaching regime. Everything, as I've mentioned, is still vanilla, and if KC finds themselves in the playoff hunt this year, it will be because better coaching created a better product on the field. This aforementioned vanilla-ness (vanillality?) limits the potency of a good coaching staff. Andy Reid will win games this year with X's and O's, but preseason week 3 is largely referred to as the season's dress rehearsal. Winning the chess match is how Andy Reid makes a living, but in this game, all his chess pieces are stuck in the same, predictable spots.

Oh hey, do me a favor and try saying “vanillality” out loud. You can thank me later.

2- Even if the Chiefs lose every preseason game, isn't that better than using preseason as a glorified 2-hour workout? I know it's been a while, but damn. Seriously. How awful was that? More to my point, how awful was that coaching staff in general? Remember Todd Haley sabotaging his own team with 4 consecutive starts by Tyler “The Tricycle” Palko? Yep, he's gone (and he's actually on the other sideline, coaching the Steelers offense.) Speaking of past woes....

3- Just remember last year, and compare the hope we have now to the disgust we had just months ago. Remember Scott Pioli's big, sweaty head? Gone. Remember Romeo Crennel's complete lack of explanation or understanding as to why his team was so dreadfully bad? Never would I imagine that I'd be so happy to substitute “lovable black Santa Claus” with “man who oh-so-closely resembles a walrus.” Remember Matt Cassel? I don't have a smart comment for that one, I just want you to close your eyes and think deeply about Matt Cassel starting at quarterback for your favorite team.

Yeah. The queasiness you're feeling proves my point better than words ever could. There's so much to look forward to, and not only because we can embrace not sucking. We have reasons to believe this is the foundation for a playoff team, if not this year, then soon. If I haven't murdered the word “hope” through overusing it on this blog, I'm sure that I'll finish the job this season. Welcome back, and thanks for reading.

Happy Time

If I had a press pass right now, my first question would go to Dwayne Bowe. If anyone on the team can be more deeply affected by the recent offensive acquisitions, it would be the man who Matt Cassel almost solely targeted last year. I'd like to ask him how he feels about the Chiefs having more viable threats for their passing game. I like to think that makes me a positive kind of person, since I know damn well he must be mighty pleased. There are probably a dozen more poignant or interesting questions I could ask, but now's not the time for that. Offseason is a wonderful, wishful-thinking period full of what-ifs, when everybody's still undefeated. So we're not talking about negative things today. I'm not making any angry criticisms of Branden Albert or Scott Pioli or Todd Haley. Not today. As someone way more famous than myself likes to put it, it's happy time, people. So today, we're talking about happy things.

The Chiefs made big moves to upgrade the offense in recent weeks, so there's plenty of optimism to discuss. The Chiefs not only spent their 2^nd round pick on TE Travis Kelce, they also signed free agents Anthony Fasano and Donnie Avery. Donnie will earn $8.55 million for his three seasons in KC, averaging $2.85 a year. Now listed as the 73^rd highest-paid receiver in the league, he'll find it difficult to make this a bad investment.

Not only is Avery a known deep threat, but in this system he should prove to be a productive check-down option for Alex Smith. He has the speed to get YAC, and the sheer amount of dangerous eligible receivers on the field should give him the space he needs to get open. With Avery and McCluster being viable check-down options, and with Jamaal inevitably catching more short passes than ever before, we can expect to see ordinary check-downs turn into big gains this year.

Donnie Avery played two seasons in St. Louis after the Rams drafted him with the 33^rd overall pick in '08. He then spent a year with the Titans before played last season in Indy. 2012 was his most productive season, with 60 catches for 781 yards. Many, including Adam Schefter, believe Avery has the talent to break out as a big-time receiver. With all the new options for Smith to target, Donnie might get open more than ever before, but he may also catch less passes. That's just fine. He's a deep threat- the guy runs the forty in 4.2 seconds. Every play where he goes deep, he'll influence the game, whether he touches the ball or not.

Avery's speed is going to stretch the field, clearing out the middle for everyone else. This makes D Bowe more dangerous and gets him open more often. This limits the opportunity to blitz, especially with corners or safeties. It makes Jamaal even more deadly in the second level, and it does wonders for tight ends trying to find space in the middle of the field. If KC gets to Week 4 or 5 and Avery doesn't have 10 catches yet, don't worry about it. As long as the guys around him are putting up solid numbers, Donnie's doing his job. Like I said, though, for the reasons mentioned above, he may just break out and be the next big deal. This article explains why Avery will get comfortable quickly in this new offensive system, so fans can expect him to make an impact immediately.

Speaking of tight ends (like five sentences ago, but I'm bad with segues), the Chiefs hope that 2^nd round pick Travis Kelce turns out to be a big deal, as well. Kelce is perhaps a new name to Chiefs fans, but not to Andy Reid. Travis' brother, Jason Kelce, is a consistently productive and gloriously bearded member of the Philadelphia Eagles. In Philly, older brother Luke (and his beard) thrived under Andy's well-groomed tutelage, starting every game of the 2011 season. While still with the Eagles, Reid got to know Jason's younger brother and took note of his potential.

I won't pretend to be an expert on Cincinnati University football, but this article's collection of highlights does a pretty good job of presenting Travis as a strong, gritty player with impressive athleticism. He should fit in well and get a chance as a starter quickly, if not immediately. Tony Moeaki, Anthony Fasano and Kevin Brock are the only other TEs on the roster. Brock played on the practice squad for six teams before playing in two games for Buffalo and recording 2 catches in total. After that, he was out of the NFL until the Chiefs signed him. That means Kelce's only real competition should come from Anthony Fasano.

Fasano started all but 4 games for Miami since 2008, but he's only averaged 2.3 catches per game over that span. Kelce is a proven run blocker with great hands, so why not give him a shot over the veteran? That is, if he looks ready. He'll be high on my list of things to pay attention to in the preseason games. I'll be rooting for him. If KC wants that deadly tight end duo that's proven to be so productive in recent years, they'll get it by starting Moeaki and Kelce. Start thinking up good duo nicknames now.

The Report will return soon with more on free agents, draft picks and any other breaking news. Stay tuned.

The # 1 Pick, And What To Make Of It

Another draft has come and gone, and this year KC made top billing in the headlines with their first round pick. With an insanely over-promoted event such as this, it felt like the whole world was waiting with bated breath as the Commish announced Eric Fisher as the #1 overall pick. It was a predictable choice- many assumed Fisher's last few public workouts edged out Joeckel by just enough to ensure the #1 pick. It didn't make anyone in Radio City faint, and it won't be talked about on ESPN like the picks for Geno or Barkley or Tavon Austin. In fact, you probably won't hear Eric Fisher's name on Sportscenter again- until he goes to the Pro Bowl.

The fact is, Tavon Austin will be inflated into an elite, game-changing receiver before he plays a single professional down. The ascension of EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will be fluffed up to represent this year's changing of the guard at QB. They'll both be compared to Luck and RGIII ad infinitum, even though neither one is as talented or NFL-ready as any 1^st round QB pick from last year's draft. But, the fans need their fresh-faced, rookie QBs with something to prove. That story-line needs to exist. Fans have love affairs with QBs and other flashy, dynamic skill-players, so that's what we'll hear about in sports news. They are the celebrities of the sport- the stars that people idolize.

It doesn't matter if Britney Spears ever does anything with artistic value again- if she gets noticed in a gas station wearing an ugly sweater the world will hear about it. The same goes for Tim Tebow. We're going to hear his story until it reaches its bitter, ugly end whether we like it or not. It's the same for any high-profile athlete, with Super Bowl champs and failing underachievers, alike. Just as men across the globe would weep if Christina Hendricks announced a breast reduction, women would die crying if Tom Brady ever shaved his head. I could make comparisons like this all day, but it is starting to confuse the narrative here. My point is, the elite QBs and offensive skill-players get all the media attention, and that's okay. It's just the way media pushes their story-lines forward. It's natural. Sadly though, much as it is in normal life, the people who protect our beloved stars hardly ever get the credit they deserve.

Scouts commonly reported that Eric Fisher is a hard-working lineman- a real blue-collar kind of guy. You may not hear his name much more outside of Kansas City, but he'll be here. He'll be pumping iron and memorizing the playbook and learning this new offense. John Dorsey wanted to find a no-doubter with the #1 overall pick. He wasn't looking for someone to lead the league in headlines, he was looking for someone solid. From the sounds of things so far, solidity is just what he got.

So the news is good, albeit not shocking, but it does lead to some convoluted circumstances for the Chiefs offensive line. There are a bevy of new concerns now, but let's just say they're all good problems to have.

We can assume that Eric Fisher will be a starter this season, probably even in Week 1, but where will he play? The Branden Albert situation is still completely up in the air, even after talks with Miami sounded promising before the draft. It seemed for a moment like the Dolphins would forgo trading picks for Albert and use those picks to snag a top-shelf lineman high in the draft. They ended up improving their defense early, choosing not to draft an OL until Dallas Thomas in the 3^rd round. Sources say Thomas isn't even cut out for playing tackle in the long run- his footwork leaves much to be desired, so he'll inevitably make the move to guard. If there's any interest in a trade for Albert, it will probably still come from Miami. If there isn't, the Chiefs really have Albert by the you-know-whats.

After all his complaining and holding out, this is still a crucial contract year for a weathered veteran that will soon reach his career's downward slope. If he wants any kind of security in his next contract, from the Chiefs or anyone else, he'll play wherever the coach tells him to play. Adam Teicher of the Star predicts that Fisher will start the season playing right tackle, avoiding any drama from Albert. Should the Chiefs really be that concerned on keeping Albert content, though? He's paid his dues, and he's a proven talent at left tackle, but should that stop the organization from putting the team in the best position to win, not to mention putting their #1 overall pick in the best position to properly develop? What it comes down to is this: right now, Fisher>Albert on the field, so Fisher should play where he is at his best. If you think Albert is better suited to cover the blind spot, that's a completely different argument. Fact is, Fisher projects to be better right out of the gate than Branden Albert will be in his 6^th year of service. If that's the case, he should be plugged right into the spot where he'll hopefully dominate for years to come.

Fisher told the press he's willing to play whatever position the Chiefs ask him to play. Albert has often sounded less than ecstatic about the idea of moving from LT. Based on this, a betting man would guess that KC takes the path of least resistance and keeps Albert at his native position. If my sterling advice goes unheralded yet again, I won't lose any sleep over it. The Chiefs O-Line looks excellent on paper, wherever you plug in the pieces. Along with Fisher and Albert, Kansas City has two high-celing linemen from last year's draft, as well as Jon Asamoah and newly acquired Geoff Schwartz. Now, it seems a familiar face may be joining this growing pool of talent.

In the middle of April, rumors started circulating about Ryan Lilja coming out of retirement for a return with the Chiefs. Ryan called it quits last year after five years protecting Peyton Manning and three more with Kansas City. Nobody could blame him for not returning to the same hopeless offense to defend Matt Cassel. Now that things in KC have changed for the better, Lilja's interest has done the same. Word is though, Ryan only wishes to return if he can play his native position- left guard. He continues to recover from knee and toe surgery as well, but he should be healed up in time for the beginning of training camp. If he does return, it adds to an already impressive upgrade for 2013. With Lilja and Albert, it could project to be top 5 or 10 league-wide. Without them both, Schwartz can play either tackle or guard, and the young linemen from last year's draft will get a chance to develop. Really, the worst possible outcome for this year is light-years ahead of last year's best-case scenario. Yet again, that's something for which all Chiefs fans can be excited and appreciative.

UPDATE: Today on Sirius radio, Andy Reid said he would start Albert at left tackle this year, if he was still a member of the team. This post, released this afternoon, explains that Albert might be willing to hold out should the Chiefs push him to right tackle. So yeah, that's one reason to keep him happy. It is a contract year for him, and he seems far less willing to budge from his opinion than Reid. So, barring a trade of some kind, Albert starts at left tackle, with Fisher at right. Like I said- doesn't break my heart at all.

Season Preview- September

Another major moment in the offseason that often goes unmentioned is the release of the new schedule. Sports media gets clogged with Draft Day talk and free agency moves at this time of year. People make plans to watch with friends or family. Folks gather together in crowded bars, watching Draft Day pregame analysis and enjoying Draft Day drink specials. Sadly, no corks were popped for the important announcement of which teams stand in the way of your favorite club's ascension to greatness. Now that fans know who and when they play, the hypothesizing and the fantasizing become all-the-more concrete. Even with the regular season being over four months away, that's still something to appreciate. So, let's run through Kansas City's 2013 schedule. With free agent acquisitions to look at and Draft Day looming near, there are plenty of things to talk about aside from the new schedule, but I'm doing it anyway. So, we'll take it one month at a time, and that means today we'll be looking forward to September.

Before we get started, just let it be known that I reserve the right to change any game predictions I make here, right up until the moment that game begins. Lots of things can happen, and we've got an entire draft yet to come- as if ESPN could possibly let you forget. I promise I'm not especially flip-floppy. I just want to be thorough.

Week 1- Chiefs at Jaguars, September 8^th

The season starts with a real bang as the league's two worst teams clash in Jacksonville. Last year's Jags offense ranks above only the Cardinals and the last-place Chiefs in points scored. With MJD starting only 5 games, their rushing offense was the 3^rd worst league-wide. To top it all off, they couldn't stop anyone on defense, either. Jacksonville allowed the 3^rd most yards and the 3^rd most points in 2012. The only disparaging thing about those statistics are just how similar they are to the Chiefs last season. However, the changes that the Jaguars made do not serve the optimist as well as the changes made in Kansas City. It's reasonable to assume that the Reid-Dorsey rebuilding process will turn out better than.... whatever they're doing down there in Jacksonville. They could have an A+ draft and still be worse on paper than Kansas City is right now.

Prediction: The Chiefs start the season with a comfortable win and a lot of momentum to bring back to Arrowhead.

Week 2- Chiefs vs. Cowboys, September 15^th

This year's home opener should be intriguing and difficult. This is one of many games that will be much easier to decide after the draft. If the Chiefs supplement the secondary with a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick that makes an immediate impact, I may be predicting a win here in the future. Otherwise, it could be too tough to stop last year's 3^rd best passing offense. Andy has plenty of experience coaching against Dallas, but has always struggled to stop Romo and Company from advancing the ball through the air at their leisure.

Prediction: Jamaal should have a good enough outing to slow things down and keep scoring lower than expected. The game will be decided by a key turnover, and unfortunately, it will probably come from a member of Dallas' talented secondary. The Chiefs lose, and the fans have visions in their sleep of all the interceptions from years past. Many awaken in the dead of night, drenched in a cold sweat, rubbing their eyes furiously, trying in vain to erase the blurry images of Steve Bono and Matt Cassel still lingering in their tortured minds. I shudder at the thought.

Week 3- Chiefs at Eagles, September 19^th

This should be interesting. Andy Reid takes his new team to his old home as the Chiefs take on Philadelphia. It's hard to say right now what Chip Kelly will make of the pieces left over from Andy's era, but there is still plenty of talent in Philly right now. Assuming Vick starts next year, the new-look Eagles could be the NFL's equivalent of a Run and Gun offense. A dynamic offense that stretches the field vertically and challenges the edges with rushing speed isn't too hard to imagine. That all sounds great to a starving Eagles fan-base- that is, until their star QB gets hurt, again, and leaves their team to flounder in mediocrity, again.

Prediction: If Vick starts, the Eagles will get off to an early lead. Then, he'll get hurt, and when Nick Foles comes in to make Philly's offense predictable again, KC turns things around for an exciting comeback win on the road. If Vick doesn't start, said predictability from the Eagles offense should allow the Chiefs to outscore Philly for a slightly more comfortable victory.

Week 4- Chiefs vs. Giants, September 29^th

The Giants come into town this fall with a grudge and a lot of previous success. Even in a down year, New York's offense ranked 6^th in 2012. The passing and rushing game ranked 12^th and 13^th respectively, and improving on those stats may prove difficult this year. Without Ahmad Bradshaw, or a clear answer at tight end, New York has a lot of work to do to improve through the draft and free agency. Even with all the changes on the offensive side of the ball, the defense was clearly what kept the G-Men out of the playoffs. They gave up the 5^th most yards through the air and the 8^th most yards through the ground last year. So, does this mean the newly revamped Chiefs offense can edge out an important win against Eli and the Giants?

Prediction: No. It doesn't. The Giants' front office has successfully retooled the team several times to get them well-equipped for a playoff run. They could draft Eifert from Notre Dame to give Eli another legitimate passing threat, or they could improve their defense and return to their former days of defensive dominance. Either way, the staff in New York will do enough to make the team successful, and Eli will have enough firepower to abuse a KC secondary that will inevitably go through some growing pains.

So, according to these very flimsy predictions, the Chiefs end the month with a .500 record, but are winless at Arrowhead. Hopefully, those losing predictions were hogwash, because losing those home games will do little to improve the formerly intimidating crowd factor. On-again, off-again fans of KC football won't see the off-the-field moves that put this team in a great position to be a contender for years to come. They'll see two losses at home, and a lot of sad fans. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and Arrowhead has every reason to explode this September. Sadly, two of the toughest games on the league's 5th-easiest schedule are difficult, early games at home.

Thankfully, winning in October should be much more feasible. With games against the Titans, Raiders and Browns, KC should be turning things around before All Hallow's Eve. Next week, we'll break down all the October match-ups. Stay tuned for more free agent analysis and draft day speculation.

Key Players Re-signed, Part 3- The Silent Weapon

Today, we're talking punters. They're weird, they get made fun of constantly, and they look like fifth-graders compared to the other guys on the field. They're also the most underrated player on the team, without question. Furthermore, the one who plays in KC might just be the team's biggest unspoken hero. The Chiefs won't suck this year, but even if you didn't notice (or care), the Chiefs' punting game has avoided sucking for a long time. Actually, it's been an elite punting squad for nearly a decade now, and we have Dustin Colquitt to thank for it. In 8 years with the Chiefs, the Pro Bowler has been consistently clutch, and that kind of performance in crucial situations might give KC the edge they need to reach the playoffs.

Colquitt ranks in the top ten for the last two seasons in net punt yardage. He is also second league-wide in punts within the 20 yard-line and return yards from punts. Statistics can't tell the whole story with a valuable punter, though. It's a very weird, very situational position. Although they're often punchlines in the locker room, a good punter gives his team valuable yardage in crucial moments, every single game of the season. I wouldn't hesitate to call that clutch. In this upcoming year, KC is playing for a playoff berth instead of playing for the sake of avoiding embarrassment. If the season goes well, winning the field position battle could earn them a Wild Card spot. To me, that makes the penning of this 5 year, $18.75 million contract well worth it.

At $3.75 million per year, Colquitt now has the highest average salary of any punter in the league. For the record, that puts his annual wages just a shade above that of backup QB, Chase Daniel. Chase, who has never started a game in his 3 seasons behind Drew Brees, was signed for 3 years/$10 million to almost assuredly hold the clipboard this year, yet Colquitt, the veteran Pro Bowler and special teams MVP, earns about $425,000 more each year. Poor punters.

Key Players Re-signed, Part 2- Struggling With Commitment

Clark Hunt, Andy Reid and John Dorsey, who will hitherto be referred to as Clark and Company, agreed to use the Chief's franchise tag promptly this year. In order to solidify the offensive line, they applied it to Pro Bowl tackle, Branden Albert. Was this the right decision? Could more be done with the tag? How does this influence draft day? And, first off, does having a great offensive line really matter in this era of football? Let's (try to) find out.

The value of an elite offensive line is highly debatable these days. With agile QBs taking over the league, the effect of an unstoppable O-Line may be more diminished than ever before. In fact, according to Advanced NFL Stats, 3 teams made the playoffs with top-ten lines last year, but 3 teams with offensive lines ranking in the bottom-ten also made the playoffs, including the Super Bowl Champion Ravens.

For the record, two of the teams that made the playoffs with bad offensive lines (Seattle and Washington) are led by two of the most athletic quarterbacks ever to play the position. However, Baltimore's line ranked second to last in the league, behind only Pittsburgh, and they won the Lombardi trophy with a kinda-sorta-mobile QB in Joey Flacco. I mention this because Alex Smith is considered by most to be more mobile than Flacco. It's also worth noting that the Ravens passed the ball on 56% of there snaps, whereas both the Redskins and Seahawks threw less than 47% of the time. Even with an incompetent passing game and an offense built around Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs passed on 49% of their offensive possessions last year. With an offensive makeover performed by a pass-friendly veteran coach, the 2013 Chiefs should have a similar passing percentage with similar QB mobility as the 2012 Champion Ravens.

Does this mean KC should avoid using their resources to upgrade the offensive line? No- not when you look at the team's other choices for the franchise tag. The list of other unrestricted free agents is highlighted by Peyton Hillis, Steve Breaston and Matt Cassel. While it would be advantageous to get more value out of your franchise tag than re-hiring an offensive lineman, the Chiefs truly had nothing better to do with it. Would you rather hold onto Breaston for $10.5 million? How about retaining Andy Studebaker for $9.6 million? No way. So KC holds onto its most valuable UFA, he signs the contract and the deal is done.....which would all just be grand, if it actually meant that Albert would be playing here in 2013. Unfortunately, this is not the end of the story.

Albert now stands as a holdout. He is currently the only Chief on the roster not attending the first phase of Andy Reid's new voluntary off-season program. Instead, he waits for KC to offer him a long-term contract, or find a worthwhile deal with another team to send Albert elsewhere. The 28 year old lineman is telling the press he wants a longer commitment before showing up to camp. On NFL AM, Albert said "Until I know my situation with certainty I'm going to stay away." He went on to tell the media that he's unsure of what he'll do when the mandatory program begins.

The Chiefs have from now until then (with "Phase Three" workouts beginning May 14) to either come to terms with their veteran lineman or find an suitable trade offer. It's at that point when things start looking ugly and the team has the right to start fining Albert for every day he misses. On March 22^nd, ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that KC was “seeking a second-round pick in this year's draft as well as another pick in 2014 in a trade for franchise OT Branden Albert.” Judging from the rumors that are swirling around at this point, Miami seems to be the most viable, if not the only, team interested in that deal. Clark and Company have moved swiftly thus far with major, team-changing decisions, so for all we know, a deal could be made tomorrow. However, the upcoming draft, and the Chiefs' position therein, play a key role in determining Albert's worth to the organization.

If the team trades Albert, it would be almost obvious to go with a highly-regarded lineman like Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher with the first pick, especially since KC has already parted ways with another seasoned lineman in Eric Winston. But, the Chiefs have until prime-time on April 25^th to probe and evaluate and analyze and make damn sure they don't use the #1 overall pick on an overrated offensive lineman. Maybe they fall in love with Fisher or Joeckel. Maybe they retain Albert and decide to upgrade defensively through the draft, instead. Maybe they decide to trade down for more value. There is plenty of time left until draft day to evaluate the numerous options, and it would seem wise to use however much is necessary to get the best deal possible. They would gladly take the previously mentioned original asking price for Albert if someone offered, but it sounds like even Miami would try their best to talk the Chiefs down from that original ask.

Whichever way the Branden Albert situation gets sorted out will define KC's role in the upcoming draft. With the QB situation seemingly solidified and many flawed positions filled with talent from free agency, this signing (or lack thereof) could be the final deciding factor for how KC uses that first overall pick. Things will be much more clear once we know whether or not the Chiefs will need to upgrade the O-Line- to the point where KC's choice could be made very simple by the situation at hand. RGR will be here to report any news on the matter, so we can then make the next step in pondering our draft day fantasies. Stay tuned for any major breaking news, and check in later this week for more analysis of this year's off-season signings.