How Third Down Doomed KC in 2025

I didn't think 6-11 was on the board for the Kansas City Chiefs this year. What went wrong? Actually, a quick look through the season stats indicates that they kinda got worse at everything. In the regular season prior to the one that just concluded, KC had an average offense and a really good, possibly great, defense. The 2024 Chiefs also had a +6 turnover differential. In 2025, the Chiefs defense was diminished but still strong, their turnover differential dropped to -1, and flaws on offense ultimately prevented them from achieving sustained success.

The Chiefs defense finished 10th in yards allowed per game and 6th in points, after ranking 9th in yards and 4th in points last year. They stayed strong despite finishing 2025 with the fourth-fewest sacks of any team in the league. Kansas City also allowed the fourth-highest third down conversion rate in the NFL. They struggled with this in 2024 also, however, so none of this can be the primary reason for coming short this season. The sad truth revolves around the regression of KC's offense.

Over their three straight seasons of reaching the Super Bowl, the Chiefs ranked third, sixth and second in the league in third down conversion. This season, they ranked 22nd. This helped turn an offense that ranked 16th and 15th in yards and points per game in '24 into the offense that finished 2025 at 20th and 21st in yards and points. Ranking 22nd or lower in both third downs converted and opponent's third downs converted is a lack of success experienced only by the Chiefs and two other teams this season.

Fans could feel it when they watched this season, too. It was a gut-punch every time the team looked good for lengthy periods of time, only to make it all futile by allowing a long third down conversion or failing to convert a dang 3rd and 2. If change is what the Chiefs offense needs, that's good, because change is coming. Former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is not expected to return, and the rumor mill about his replacement is already in full gear. That means I'll be returning when we get more news to share my thoughts on it all while the playoffs go on without us. Enjoy it all Chiefs Kingdom, and I'll be back soon.

Texans' Tepid Offense Cannot Compare to KC's Playoff Prowess

It's do-or-die time for everyone left standing in the NFL, and the Kansas City Chiefs cannot underestimate their opponent in today's game. The 10-7 Houston Texans have a strong defense that applies pressure as well as any team in football, and we all know it takes a rare talent at quarterback to lead their team to the playoffs in their first two seasons in the league. C.J Stroud throwing to Nico Collins has proven to be one of the most dangerous connections in all of football. A strong draft just earned Houston a starter at right tackle, strong safety and nickelback. Despite all these reasons for hope in Houston, their season should end today.

C.J. Stroud struggled to make the Texans offense trustworthy this season. In fact, he struggled to improve upon his remarkable rookie campaign in any way. Houston averaged 21.9 points in the regular season, which is 19th in the league. Last year, their average was 22.2. More importantly, Houston was a 10-7 playoff team both seasons, but fans hoping to break that glass ceiling and reach the AFC Championship game may be feeling a growing sense of concern. 

Stroud's 2023 average for yards per pass attempt of 8.2 dropped to 7 this season. He threw three fewer touchdowns and seven more picks while getting sacked 14 more times. This ultimately led to a 13.8-point drop-off in Passer Rating from last season to now. It's worth noting, though, that he only had Stefon Diggs for eight games this season. We should also keep in mind that the Texans' success last year resulted in them playing a tougher schedule, which meant facing tougher defenses. 

That tougher schedule forced Houston to play six of this season's playoff teams. The Texans lost five of those games. Houston allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents in the regular season, but when they faced a top-shelf offense, they usually lost. They lost 34-7 to Minnesota, 31-2 to the Ravens and 27-19 to a Chiefs team without Hollywood Brown. It seems like even the healthier version of the Texans struggle against playoff teams with an imposing offense, and Chiefs teams led by Mahomes in the playoffs perfectly fit that description.

If the Texans offense fails to improve upon its recent standard, keeping up with KC's playoff offense will be impossible. Prior to putting up 32 on a Los Angeles Chargers team that gifted Houston four interceptions, the Texans didn't score above 23 in their last five regular season games. Patrick Mahomes averages 29.9 points per playoff games over 18 games, and that isn't just the Tyreek Hill era of offense skewing the statistics. In the 10 playoff games since KC traded Hill away, they average 29.4 points per game. Last year's Baltimore Ravens were the only team to hold KC to fewer than 23 points in those 10 games.

It's a shame how much injuries will affect this game, but it gives the Chiefs a major advantage today. A healthy Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown makes the Chiefs offense closer to full-strength than it's been all year. The losses of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell makes the Texans wide receiver room the most depleted it's been all year. Combine Mahomes' and Travis Kelce's legendary playoff production with Houston's recent mediocrity on offense, and we have the recipe for another Chiefs playoff victory. I'm predicting a lopsided first half followed by some garbage-time scoring from Houston that results in a 27-20 win for Kansas City. I hope you get the chance to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.

Dramatic Divisional Round Duel Features Faces of Football Facing Off

A game this big feels like at least two Christmases for citizens of Chiefs Kingdom such as myself. Today represents a very important page in the history book of this fine sport. We are only hours away from a face-off between two teams entwined in a memorable rivalry that pits one of the greatest quarterbacks of this era against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The spotlight for this divisional round matchup has landed, deservedly so, on Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Their stories will forever be connected, and their efforts in this game will alter the way these greats are perceived by generations of football fans to come.

In his first ever playoff road game, Mahomes is trying to cement his name in the all-time elite category, already surpassing most Hall of Fame QBs' accomplishments. Patrick is only still chasing the heights of legendary names like Montana and Brady. Josh Allen is still trying to get his first playoff win against the same guy who ended his season in back-to-back years prior to the last one. On paper, and for this season in particular, Allen is the better QB. He threw for more yards, more yards per catch and more touchdowns all while running with way more success and taking fewer sacks. Josh ranked third in regular season QBR according to ESPN, while Mahomes finished at #8. 

However, Allen is facing off with the guy on pace to be the greatest playoff quarterback in league history. That obviously should give KC a major advantage, but one position on the field doesn't choose who wins and loses in the playoffs. Buffalo ranks fifth in regular season total yards per game, seventh in rushing yards per game and sixth in total points per game. Their offense converted the highest percentage of third downs in the NFL in the regular season. Buffalo's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season and compiled the fourth-most sacks. They didn't get here by accident.

Despite Buffalo's impressive finish to the regular season and their Wild Card Weekend victory, I cannot be convinced that they're the most likely victor tonight. The Chiefs have earned my trust that they'll survive moments like this. All the guys on KC's roster who are going to the Hall of Fame deserve all the faith of the citizens of Chiefs Kingdom. I'm predicting a classic playoff thriller and a 27-21 victory for Kansas City.

Will Mahomes Turn Chiefs Into Undeniable Dynasty?

The impact of this Super Bowl will make waves through all of sports history. Victory for the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday would make it impossible to deny the franchise's identity as a true dynasty. That feeling of greatness affects every citizen of Chiefs Kingdom every day, but the consequences of this particular Big Game will mean something almost inexplicable to Patrick Mahomes. For Mahomes, this Sunday's game represents a certain threshold of greatness that only a handful of athletes in sports history have ever crossed. Winning this much this early in his career would push Mahomes past the realm of debates involving names like Allen and Burrow and bring him into the orbit of talks involving names like Montana and Brady. A win this Sunday means people will be comparing Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa less often than they compare Mahomes to Michael Jordan.

A win today keeps Mahomes in the conversation of the best athletes ever, with names like Brady, Jordan, LeBron, Serena, Gretzky, Babe Ruth, Muhammad Ali - names that bring to mind unprecedented greatness. The phrase "greatest athlete ever" has such weight that it echoes back through thousands of years of human history. Human beings have been engaging in some sort of organized, athletic competition that can be defined as a team sport for over three millennia, and winning a football game today could be part of Patrick Mahomes' journey to becoming the best to participate in that activity over that entire period of time. 

That's a lot of superlative-laden, big-picture stuff I'm talking about. The thing is, it's all true, because Patrick is just that good. Whoever's writing their own blog about the Vikings sure as hell doesn't talk like this about Kirk Cousins, so I feel unbelievably lucky just to experience this. There's always two sides to the Super Bowl story, however, and the Eagles' resume suggests that they're capable of breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom today.

Philly started the year 8-0 and plowed through their first two playoff opponents, both of which lost by over three touchdowns and only scored seven points. The Eagles lost one game this season in which Hurts played and wasn't injured. Philly had the most sacks in the regular season by a wide margin, but at least the Chiefs allowed the third-fewest sacks in the NFL. Haason Reddick led the league in sacks with 19.5 this season, but the entire Eagles defense knows how to hunt the quarterback. No other team had more than one guy ranked 12th or better in sacks this season. Philly had four. That's four different Eagles from three different positions that had 12 or more sacks.

To put that in perspective, the Chiefs' runner-up for sacks is Frank Clark. His seven sacks puts him in an eight-way tie for 40th place. Philadelphia's ability to pressure the QB without sending a blitz resulted in them allowing the league's lowest passing yards per game in the regular season and postseason.

That studly Philly defense paired with one of football's best offenses may make the Eagles the most complete team in the NFL. While KC's offense is the best in football, Philly's isn't far behind. KC and Philadelphia ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in both total yards and total points per game in the regular season. The offensive lines are important, underrated factors for both the teams that reached this year's Super Bowl. The centers in particular deserve credit, as Creed Humphrey and Jason Kelce are rated the #1 and #2 centers in the league by Pro Football Focus.

Mahomes deserves his exorbitant share of attention in moments like this, but several Chiefs that garner far less acclaim will decide who finishes this season as a champion. The aforementioned young center and all his partners on KC's offensive line will have their work cut out for them trying to limit the penetration of Philly's impressive defensive front-line. The improvement to KC's rushing defense also seems understated. The growing greatness of Chris Jones and the improvements at middle linebacker thanks to Willie Gay and Nick Bolton resulted in KC ranking eighth in rushing yards allowed per game in the regular season. Last season, KC ranked 21st in this statistic. The Chiefs also improved their rushing yards allowed per attempt from 30th last season to 19th this season.

I truly believe that in a game that looks this close on paper, the result will still be decided by the superior quarterback-head coach duo. Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts seem to have a bright future ahead together, but their two strong playoff performances pale in comparison to the monumental list of achievements credited to the legendary duo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. I'm predicting that the Chiefs win today, 27-24, and the first ever Kansas City sports dynasty is born. Enjoy it with people you love as much as you can.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.

Stidham, Vegas Seek Vengeance As Chiefs Seek Bye Week

Only the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC's #1 seed. The Raiders will once again start career-backup Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and their defense will omit Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. These changes should help make this a stress-free Saturday in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'm not so sure. Raiders fans desperately desire a rivalry here, but no true rivalry exists when the competition is completely lop-sided, and Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 in his career against the Raiders. Despite a depleted roster, the Raiders probably see this strange Saturday game as the Super Bowl for spoilers.

I still want to believe that today's game will be an easy test for the Chiefs, but KC played down to inferior teams all season long, and they only snuck past Vegas by a point in their previous meeting. Also, Stidham looked legit last week when Vegas scored 34 and took San Fran to overtime. His 77.4 QBR in that game was only matched by Mahomes once in KC's last four games. However, Mahomes' season average for QBR sits at 77.8, which is less a knock on Stidham and more evidence that KC's golden boy should earn his second MVP award this season.

I would love to predict a blow-out victory for KC, but they converted on only 22.22% of their third downs last week - the lowest percentage in the NFL in Week 17. The Chiefs aren't facing Denver's beefy defense this week, though, and the Raiders defense ranks among the NFL's bottom eight in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Maybe Stidham's more studly than I anticipated, but he is most certainly not on the level of soon-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

The Chiefs give me no peace of mind when facing subpar opponents, thanks to their aforementioned struggles against them all season long, but they also earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming those struggles almost every time. Also, Patrick Mahomes would give this team the benefit of the doubt even if the rest of the roster didn't deserve it. I'm predicting a frustrating 37-31 victory for the reigning division champs. The Chiefs, specifically the leaders on this Chiefs roster, rarely disappoint in a game of this magnitude, especially when facing such ineffectual opposition.

Division in Disarray as Chiefs Chase #1 Seed

Our Kansas City Chiefs won enough this year to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed with only two regular season games left. Meanwhile, the hapless Denver Broncos just fired their head coach midseason. Elsewhere in the AFC West, the similarly hapless Las Vegas Raiders just told their starting QB and two stand-out defenders to take a seat on the bench until the season's over. At least Chargers fans have a 9-6 record and the prodigious Justin Herbert to keep them hopeful. Neither the Broncos or Raiders have a head coach or a QB who has earned enough trust to give their fans a shadow of hope next season. That's gotta hurt.

It would also hurt if the Chiefs pooped the bed by losing to either one of these hopeless teams with the #1 seed still within reach. The Broncos have a -1 turnover differential on the season, which is better than KC's -5, and their defense still ranks seventh-best or higher in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Those are the only things Denver can claim to do better than Kansas City. Russell Wilson and the statistically horrible offense he leads hasn't stopped being horrible over the last three weeks, if you can believe that. Denver also has serious penalty problems, which was probably a factor in deciding to give their head coach the boot before the season was over. 

The Titans, who played their 16th game of the season Thursday, lead the league in yards lost to penalties with 917. Denver has lost 912 yards to penalty while playing one less game. The third-highest amount of yards lost to penalty is 76 yards fewer. That third-worst ranking belongs to the Raiders, by the way, who will face KC in the regular season's final week.

The Broncos need more than a different head coach if they want to beat the Chiefs while KC is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm predicting a routine 31-14 Chiefs victory that keeps their hopes for reclaiming the #1 seed in the conference alive. It feels great to be a citizen of Chiefs Kingdom, especially while witnessing two of our divisional "rivals" fail to deliver for their success-hungry fanbases.

Can KC Continue Playoff Push by Beating Buffalo?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off tonight to decide who faces Cincy in next week's AFC Championship game. Patrick Mahomes passed for over 404 yards and five touchdowns, and he still didn't outperform Josh Allen. Buffalo's signal caller started the game with seven straight touchdowns against the greatest football coach ever, as Allen and the Bills dismantled Bill Belichick's New England Patriots 47-17. 

Both QBs led prolific passing offenses that showed flaws at times before looking truly elite down the stretch. By the end of the regular season, both teams posted top-five yards per game and points per game. Despite some ups and downs in the regular season, Allen still finished with a 60.8 QBR that ranks sixth league-wide, just a spot behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen and the Bills dominated the Chiefs in Week 5 of the regular season, and they just dominated their opponents on Wild Card Weekend, but the Chiefs are still favored by one or one and a half at home tonight. The huge difference between what the Chiefs were in October and what they have now become is the key reason why KC's last meeting with the Bills had little influence on today's spread.

That first meeting in Week 5 was weird. Both QBs led their teams in rushing yards. No Bill caught more than three passes, but four different Bills finished the day with over 50 receiving yards. Buffalo's defense game-plan limited the production of future Hall of Famers on KC's offense so successfully that Mecole Hardman led the Chiefs in receiving yards and catches that day. Stefon Diggs only caught two passes, but he still racked up 69 receiving yards.

Buffalo beat the Chiefs by 18 that day, and talking head Stephen A. Smith described KC's defense as "trash" and "an atrocity". At that point in the season, he wasn't wrong. Chris Jones was still experimenting with a new position. Melvin Ingram was still a disgruntled Pittsburgh Steeler. I already detailed the changes that made the Chiefs championship contenders again, but it's worth remembering just how hapless things felt back in October. 

I predicted that the Chiefs would lose to the Bills in that first meeting. Much has changed since then. For today, I have to give the edge, as I always do, to the coach and quarterback tandem with proven playoff success. Josh Allen looked flawless last week, but that's his only truly great outing in the playoffs. Both offenses should come down from the stratosphere to be at least slightly less incredible than they were last week. This is especially true for KC, as the Bills defense held opponents to the lowest total yards, passing yards and total points per game this season. Despite this, I'm going with my guy Mahomes to provide a little magic and keep the good times rolling in Kansas City. This matchup has Game of the Year vibes, and I think the Chiefs will survive it, 34-31.

Could Pittsburgh Present Playoff Perils to KC?

Playoff football returns to Arrowhead tonight. The Kansas City Chiefs are huge favorites this time around as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. What could give the 14-point underdogs a chance against the Chiefs in this lopsided, do-or-die battle?

Football fans everywhere likely agree that the Steelers won't have the advantage at QB tonight. In fact, a player who will one day become another one of Pittsburgh's representatives in Canton may be the player holding the Steelers back the most right now.

Pittsburgh struggled their way through an easy schedule and snuck into the playoffs as Ben Roethlisberger finished the regular season with an Adjusted QBR of 35.8. That ranks 25th among all qualified players, putting Big Ben behind guys like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. The only player to play more than 14 games and finish with a lower QBR was rookie Jaguar Trevor Lawrence. Big Ben had the full support of one of the most respected teams in football history, and Trevor Lawrence is a Jacksonville Jaguar. 

Prior to Pittsburgh's overtime victory over the Ravens last week, Roethlisberger compiled QBR's no better than 14.0 in three consecutive games. What's actually impressive is the fact that the Steelers only lost one of those three games - the one in which they faced the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City was the only team to score more than 14 points against Pittsburgh during that stretch. It's probably no coincidence that the Chiefs won while keeping T.J. Watt sack-less in that game, as opposed to him racking up four sacks against Cleveland and one and a half sacks against Tennessee. 

Watt led the league in sacks, tying the all-time record of 22.5. Thankfully for worrisome fans belonging to Chiefs Kingdom, KC's offensive line finished third league-wide in percentage of sacks allowed per play, behind only the Bills and Bucs. The line that Kansas City built from scratch this off-season finished its first year ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' power rankings. If health permits, the Chiefs should prove with this ensuing playoff run that worrying about the offensive line represents only residue of past failures.

Speaking of past failures, turning the ball over is another way KC could turn this opportunity into another memorable disaster like we witnessed in the pre-Mahomes regimes. KC is 11th in the NFL in turnover differential at +4, and Pittsburgh is tied at 13th with +2. This ranking for the Chiefs felt like a disappointment when I saw that stat, especially when I also saw that KC's 29 takeaways ties them for fifth-best in the league. It's also worth noting that the top-ten list for total takeaways is comprised of eight playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. It certainly seems like a high volume of takeaways takes teams to the playoffs or gets them damn close.

Kansas City's problem with their turnover differential came from their surprisingly high volume of giveaways; 25 ties them with the Tennessee Titans for the ninth-most in the NFL. No team with more giveaways reached the playoffs, and each team on the top-five list for most giveaways this season lost at least 11 games. Pittsburgh's 22 takeaways this season ties them at 14th in the league, meaning that the Chiefs will face an opponent whose ability to take the ball away is essentially league-average. The Chiefs have played five teams with higher takeaway totals this season - the Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Giants and Titans - and Kansas City won three of those five games.

The gulf between the prior success rates of the teams facing off today makes it impossible for me to give the Steelers any hope. I'm predicting a comfortable 31-17 victory for the Chiefs. The "nothing to lose" mentality only gets a team so far when they run into an opponent playing objectively better football.

Can KC Overcome Success-Craving Cleveland?

Our defending Super Bowl champions take the field in mere moments. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Cleveland Browns today, and the winners punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game next weekend. While the Chiefs overcame a laundry list of legit competition to earn the #1 seed, the Browns' obstacles looked less impressive.

Cleveland's schedule was a joke. The 11-5 Browns won only three games against winning football teams in the regular season. Their schedule included victories over each team from the NFC East, a win over the Texans, two wins from the Bengals and one from the one-win Jaguars. The Browns also lost to the New York Jets in Week 16. If Cleveland didn't face so many cupcake opponents this season, they may not have made it this far.

The Chiefs beat the Ravens, Bills, Bucs and Saints in the regular season, which further galvanized the reigning champions. The Browns needed an easy schedule to sneak their way into the playoffs, just like they needed a bad game from the Steelers to sneak into the second round.

It's true that Patrick Mahomes and his offense are guilty of getting off to slow starts this season. However, none of KC's struggles compare to the awful way Pittsburgh started the game last week. The Steelers' first six possessions resulted in three interceptions, two punts and a botched long-snap that turned into a Browns touchdown. Kansas City will not do that today. 

Regardless of who they beat to reach this point, Cleveland matches up well against KC in numerous ways. Baker Mayfield deserves credit for making plays in key moments throughout the season, and he's bringing with him the world's best rushing duo. All throughout the regular season, the Browns' elite run game found success against defenses better-equipped at stopping the run than Kansas City's.

Numbers also indicate that the Browns will have the advantage in the red zone, an area in which KC has been surprisingly ineffective on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs allow the highest percentage of touchdowns scored by opponents in the red zone, and Cleveland ranks third league-wide in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. Part of the Browns' success has to do with protecting their young quarterback, but at least KC also excels in protecting Patrick. Sacks-per-game statistics show that both defenses are below-average at sacking the QB, and both offensive lines prevent sacks at an elite level.

I expect the Browns to utilize an efficient offense that burns clock and limits the opportunities for Mahomes to scorch that flawed Cleveland secondary. The grand sum of all the nice things listed above about the Browns should be enough to let Cleveland avoid embarrassment this afternoon, but it won't be enough to beat the defending champs. I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs and a mild headache for me after lots of joyful shouting.

History Is Made Today at Arrowhead

It's playoff time at Arrowhead Stadium, which means it's time to make history. This playoff run is a defining moment in the careers of many men, not to mention a critical point in the overall story of this football franchise. The Chiefs' backstory in home playoff games is the stuff of legend, but it's a very sad legend. Kansas City was the first franchise in NFL history to lose seven consecutive playoff games. A win today would be just the third home playoff victory in franchise history. Will KC continue to struggle at home when it matters most, or can the Chiefs take care of business against an injured, inferior Titans team? I'll sort it out through my three quick predictions:

1. Don't let OddsShark.com's spread consensus of 8.5 fool you into thinking this will be easy for KC. The Titans are the second-most effective play-action offense in football. No team in the league runs the ball behind their left tackle with more success than Tennessee. Their defense is notably stout against the run and includes multiple playmakers in the NFL Top 100. Their defense holds opponents to the league's 8th-lowest 3rd down conversion percentage, while KC ranks 23rd in this category.

Tennessee also runs a methodical offense that limits penalties and runs the ball consistently. That means we'll see the clock running a lot, especially if the Chiefs commit to running the ball with Kareem Hunt against the NFL's 4th-best rush defense. I predict that KC will not cover the spread, and the total points won't reach OddsShark's consensus over/under of 44.5. That being said, our Chiefs have a clear advantage today, and the undeniable reasons why are the focus of my other predictions.

2. Only five teams threw more interceptions than the Titans this year. Only four players in the NFL have more interceptions than Marcus Peters, and the Chiefs defense ranks 9th overall in interceptions. That being said, one of those players with more picks than Peters is Tennessee's Kevin Byard, so Alex Smith will battle Byard mentally all day long. Chiefs reporter B.J Kissel pointed out that Marcus Mariota is tied with DeShone Kizer for the most interceptions thrown in road games this year, with 11 in total. He also pointed out that the Chiefs won all nine games in which they won the turnover battle.

I'm just keeping it simple here, because the simple factor of turnovers means everything in the NFL. I predict that the Chiefs will continue this trend today by winning the turnover battle and the game, thanks in large part to at least one caused by Marcus Peters. Whether it's a strip or a pick is all up to football destiny.

3. Fan perception of Alex Smith's time as a Chiefs will be greatly shaped by his performance today. Going deep into the playoffs solidifies Smith's tenure here as something overwhelmingly positive. A defeat to an objectively inferior Titans team would leave many fans wondering how this generation of talent in KC would've fared under the command of a different QB. To have such a balanced attack with playmakers at all three levels of the offense is a luxury few NFL teams can afford. If Smith doesn't push this talented team deep into the playoffs, or at least past a Tennessee team that allowed 22 more points than it scored through the regular season, many in Chiefs Kingdom will think of Smith as the game manager that limited KC's potential for greatness. That is not fair, but that is the reality of a starting QB in the NFL, especially in a city so starved for that greatness.

Another man clearly performing at the top of his field and still being constantly questioned is the man running the show on the sidelines. This playoff run is the culmination of Andy Reid's 19th-straight season as a head coach in this league. Praise for Reid around the league is nearly unanimous, but he is the same guy who gave up play-calling duties in an admittedly successful attempt to bounce back from a then-horrifying midseason slump. That slump ended less than four weeks ago, and it is nearly the exact roster facing the Wild Card Titans today at Arrowhead.

This is not a playoff tune-up game. This is not a chip-in or a lay-up or any other stupid saying for an automatic win. The Titans want to bash Kansas City's proverbial teeth in and continue the decades-long streak of sadness that seems to curse the Kingdom during the playoffs. I thankfully believe that Andy and Alex will come through in the clutch for us today.

Smith should be well-prepared for this huge moment in his career, and it will show against a Titans defense that ranks 25th in passing yards allowed this year. Alex has thrown for 324 yards against Houston, who ranks 24th in that category. He also averaged 305 passing yards through his two meetings with the Raiders, who are #26.

Andy is going to have this squad ready to win today, and that will result in success during crucial moments for KC's offense. I predict at least 305 yards through the air for Alex Smith, as KC clears a path to the divisional round by taking care of the Titans in a tight one, 23-17.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.

Comparing Schedules of All AFC West Contenders

The ongoing collapse of the Kansas City Chiefs left the door wide open for other teams in the AFC West to fight back into the race for the division title. KC now sits at 6-6 along with the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. Chiefs Kingdom assumed the West would be wrapped up by now, but it's suddenly anybody's division to win.

The Chiefs get back to business next Saturday at noon when they face the Raiders at Arrowhead. They then host the Chargers in Week 15 in a rare Saturday night game, before facing the Dolphins on Christmas Eve in the Chiefs' third consecutive home game. KC then finishes off the regular season with a 3:25 meeting at Mile High with the Broncos on New Year's Eve. None of these teams are currently above .500, but hey, neither are any of the last four teams to beat your Kansas City Chiefs. The opportunity to beat both other clubs vying for the division title gives the Chiefs control over their own fate, but how do the competition's schedules compare to Kansas City's?

The Chargers play the 5-7 Washington Redskins next week, then travel to KC for that odd Saturday Night game. Then, they'll get their chance to beat up the Jets, before wrapping up their regular season schedule against the Raiders. Oakland's path to the playoffs seems far more arduous. After playing the Chiefs next week, they'll host the 6-6 Cowboys before travelling east to face the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles. Then, as mentioned before, they finish their regular season against the Chargers.

On paper, KC's path to the playoffs is still easier than that of any other team in their division, while the Raiders' looks like the toughest. Each squad will face the other two teams with playoff aspirations, so it should be an unexpectedly exciting fight for the division title until the very end.

If I had to guess, and I don't love predicting anything about this unpredictably awful Chiefs team right now, I'd say that the Chargers win three out of four as the Chiefs and Raiders win just two of four. That makes the L.A Chargers my current favorite to win the AFC West. Thinking it and typing it both make me feel sick. Please prove me wrong, Chiefs.

Doug LaCerte still has Facebook and occasionally tweets @DLaC67.