Last week, the Chiefs stunk about as badly as they could stink while still winning. Today, they'd have to stink more than the worst team in football to lose, because they're facing the worst team in football. The one-win Houston Texans aren't good at very many things, so if this game turns out to be a close one, it will be because of Chiefs mistakes. Houston hung in there with the legit Dallas Cowboys last week, so KC must stay disciplined today in order to avoid a huge disappointment.
Houston deserves some credit for avoiding flags this year, though it clearly hasn't resulted in much success. Their 494 yards lost to penalties is second-lowest in the NFL. The Chiefs have lost the league's 14th-fewest yards to penalty. Badly timed penalties can make seemingly lopsided games into thrillers, but it was Patrick Mahomes' three interceptions last week that kept it close against the Broncos. The Texans picked off Dak Prescott twice last week, which kept things close in Dallas, too.
KC's turnover differential has been disappointing all season long; only the Rams, Colts and Saints have worse differentials. There are only five teams with fewer takeaways than KC's 14. With all that being said, the Chiefs secondary are lining up against Davis Mills, who has thrown the second-most picks in the NFL in only 11 starts. Now is the time for KC's turnover stats to regress to the mean.
KC has everything to lose today, but a win over the Texans won't have Chiefs Kingdom jazzed up or feeling like they learned much about their team. Today's a day to just take care of business and get out of Texas with a victory. Chiefs win, 31-23, and stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. Buffalo still needs to beat Cincy and the pesky Patriots to end their regular season, so that bye-week in the playoffs could still belong to KC.
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