Tomorrow's game will be a one-of-a-kind battle against two teams with extremely different histories. The New England Patriots just reached their eighth consecutive AFC Conference Championship game. Our Kansas City Chiefs haven't reached a conference championship game in a quarter-century, and they haven't won one in a half-century. Those were the only other times in team history KC made it this far. New England won their division in each of their last 15 seasons with a healthy Tom Brady. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just won their first divisional round home game in team history. In the 17 seasons when the Pats have The Hoodie and a healthy Brady, they've reached the Super Bowl eight times. That's an almost-LeBron-like level of excellence, and it's completely unmatched in professional football.
However, Chiefs Kingdom has numerous reasons to believe our squad is still Super Bowl-bound. That same Tom Brady of legend looks very human in road games this year. The 11-5 Pats took every L on their schedule on the road, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions. None of those teams reached the playoffs this year, and none of them benefit from the record-breaking, raucous home crowd we provide. The vastly different histories of these franchises won't mean much to members of the Kingdom at Arrowhead this Sunday. All that really matters is the effectiveness of the two teams on the field. Without taking away from the historical importance of this game, let's momentarily suspend all pretense and talk numbers.
Patrick Mahomes completely changes the way I analyze this game. The incredible offense he leads makes me focus less on how the Chiefs can limit the great Tom Brady and more on how the Pats defense can limit Patrick. The only teams that held KC to below 30 points were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, and the three other defenses have top-11 season sack totals. How do the rushing attacks from KC and New England compare to the rest of the league?
Only Aaron Donald and J.J Watt have more sacks than emerging Chiefs stud Chris Jones this year. Dee Ford's 13 sacks ranks 7th league-wide. 13 sacks is also the season sacks total for the Oakland Raiders. The whole team. New England tied the New York Giants for the second-lowest sacks total in the league with 30.
So, it seemingly takes a strong pass-rushing attack to limit KC's offense, and the Pats don't have that. But, only two of the four teams that beat the Chiefs in the regular season held them under 40 points. The teams that won against KC all had a prolific passer, a prolific coach, or both. The club that unarguably has both is the same one now standing between Chiefs Kingdom and a Super Bowl.
I said last week that Reid/Mahomes > Reich/Luck, but Bill Belichick/Brady > every other coach/quarterback combo ever. The amazing home crowd at Arrowhead, the uncanny talent on the offensive side of the ball and a duo of talented pass-rushers will give the Chiefs a very realistic shot to win tomorrow. Sadly, I cannot predict that such a young QB can overcome the greatest coach/quarterback tandem in history. I predict that the dastardly Pats sneak away with a 34-33 victory. It almost hurts me to imagine the delirious joy I'll feel if Mahomes proves me wrong.
This is the most important moment in Chiefs history in at least 25 years. Are you ready, Kingdom?
Doug LaCerte writes about the Chiefs and the Royals, and he occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.
Saturday, January 19, 2019
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Can KC and Mahomes Make History at Arrowhead?
I already know I'll be a mess of emotions today, whether or not our Kansas City Chiefs can exorcise some demons and win their first divisional round home playoff game in franchise history. The Indianapolis Colts offer Chiefs Kingdom plenty to be afraid of while also leaving fans confident about certain elements of this KC squad. Before I get emotional, I'll take a look at what to fear and what to feel good about today.
A combination of Andrew Luck, a revamped offensive line and a recently stout defense are what got the Colts to this point. These pieces allowed Indy to win nine of their last 10 regular season games and pound the Texans in Houston. Andrew Luck started in all 16 regular season games this year behind a drastically improved O-line and finished with career highs in season Quarterback Rating and QBR. Luck's effectiveness kept Indy in the playoff hunt through the second half of the season. The only time either quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns this year is when Patrick Mahomes had two picks and no TD's against Jacksonville.
Luck didn't experience this level of success behind his offensive line from last year, though. The Colts upgraded here big-time in the last draft by picking second team All-Pro Quenton Nelson in the first round and Braden Smith in the third. Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders agree that the Colts have a top-five O-line, while KC's is just middle-of-the-pack. Indy's pass protection ranks second league-wide, and they allowed the fewest sacks of any team in football.
Despite all the success on Luck's side of the ball, Indy also wouldn't have reached this tournament without impressive contributions from their defense. This squad held four teams below 10 points in the regular season, including a shutout against a hot Dallas Cowboys squad in Week 15. Limiting KC's star tight end is always important for the Chiefs' opponents, and perhaps nobody in the league has more potential to successfully defend Travis Kelce than emerging star Darius Leonard. This studly rookie linebacker is a huge part of why pundits nationwide started saying that Indy has one of the league's best defenses.
However, that trendy take isn't perfect. In their last ten regular season games, the Colts picked up nine wins to barely grab the last spot in the playoffs. Seven of these wins came against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins and Giants. Simply put, those teams do not have good quarterbacks. Your quarterback, the undisputed King of Chiefs Kingdom, just finished his first full regular season as an NFL QB, and he gave us one of the three greatest seasons in NFL QB history.
This same Colts defense that many expert analysts are so high on gave up 27 points to the Giants, 28 to the Raiders, 38 to the New England Patriots, 34 to Cincy and 42 to the mighty New York Jets. The Colts have been good lately, sure, but they've often been good against QB's that are average or worse.
That's far from the only reason to feel good about your Chiefs today. Limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's effectiveness is as difficult as it is important. Kelce has at least five catches in every game since Week 1. He ranks second this season in total catches, total yards and yards per game. Hill has the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average among anyone in the league and the highest on all remaining playoff squads.
Indy does a great job protecting their QB in passing situations, but both teams excel in this area. KC's front line allowed the fifth-best protection and the fifth-fewest sacks allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs should also have the edge regarding turnovers. Kansas City forced more fumbles than all-but three NFL teams, and only three NFL teams fumbled the ball fewer times. KC's overall give-take differential of +9 is the sixth-best in football, while Indy ranks 13th.
KC led the league in regular season yards per game, despite ranking just 16th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Indy's running game seemed legit against the Texans last week, but over the year, they average only 107.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th league-wide. Luck's success running this apparently high-flying offense is also deceptive. Luck's regular season performance seemed impressive, but he's usually just "dinkin' and dunkin'".
The Colts completed only 41 plays yielding 20 or more yards this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in football. Kansas City did this 65 times to lead the league. Mahomes' 8.8 yards per passing attempt is second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck's 7.2 ranks him 23rd. This year's Chiefs defense struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing attack, but at least the 70-yard heart-breaker pass plays are less likely today.
The coach and the quarterback matter even more than usual in playoff match-ups. Andy Reid is better than Frank Reich. Mahomes, right now, is better than Andrew Luck and perhaps every other player in football. A combination of nasty weather and the NFL's greatest home crowd guarantees that the atmosphere at Arrowhead will be intense. Despite KC's shortcomings, I cannot predict the #6 seed to handle this situation well. I think the Chiefs make history today and beat the Colts 33-31 in a classic.
The "do or die" era of Patrick Mahomes' career begins today, Chiefs Kingdom. For devoted fans, playoff games inflict a certain kind of enjoyable illness. My stomach churns. My heart races like I'm already late for something very important. I did not sleep well last night. I never do before moments like this. This unusual and seemingly unwarranted level of stress is wonderful. It is a unique moment in which something in our heads knows that the stress we're feeling doesn't come from life-threatening responsibility but instead from passion - the passion we have for a team that will soon either etch their names in franchise history with a victory or end their season in defeat. Please remember to enjoy that feeling today, Kingdom, regardless of the outcome.
Doug LaCerte writes about Chiefs stuff, Royals stuff and enjoys anti-Raiders memes on Twitter @DLaC67.
A combination of Andrew Luck, a revamped offensive line and a recently stout defense are what got the Colts to this point. These pieces allowed Indy to win nine of their last 10 regular season games and pound the Texans in Houston. Andrew Luck started in all 16 regular season games this year behind a drastically improved O-line and finished with career highs in season Quarterback Rating and QBR. Luck's effectiveness kept Indy in the playoff hunt through the second half of the season. The only time either quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns this year is when Patrick Mahomes had two picks and no TD's against Jacksonville.
Luck didn't experience this level of success behind his offensive line from last year, though. The Colts upgraded here big-time in the last draft by picking second team All-Pro Quenton Nelson in the first round and Braden Smith in the third. Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders agree that the Colts have a top-five O-line, while KC's is just middle-of-the-pack. Indy's pass protection ranks second league-wide, and they allowed the fewest sacks of any team in football.
Despite all the success on Luck's side of the ball, Indy also wouldn't have reached this tournament without impressive contributions from their defense. This squad held four teams below 10 points in the regular season, including a shutout against a hot Dallas Cowboys squad in Week 15. Limiting KC's star tight end is always important for the Chiefs' opponents, and perhaps nobody in the league has more potential to successfully defend Travis Kelce than emerging star Darius Leonard. This studly rookie linebacker is a huge part of why pundits nationwide started saying that Indy has one of the league's best defenses.
However, that trendy take isn't perfect. In their last ten regular season games, the Colts picked up nine wins to barely grab the last spot in the playoffs. Seven of these wins came against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins and Giants. Simply put, those teams do not have good quarterbacks. Your quarterback, the undisputed King of Chiefs Kingdom, just finished his first full regular season as an NFL QB, and he gave us one of the three greatest seasons in NFL QB history.
This same Colts defense that many expert analysts are so high on gave up 27 points to the Giants, 28 to the Raiders, 38 to the New England Patriots, 34 to Cincy and 42 to the mighty New York Jets. The Colts have been good lately, sure, but they've often been good against QB's that are average or worse.
That's far from the only reason to feel good about your Chiefs today. Limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's effectiveness is as difficult as it is important. Kelce has at least five catches in every game since Week 1. He ranks second this season in total catches, total yards and yards per game. Hill has the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average among anyone in the league and the highest on all remaining playoff squads.
Indy does a great job protecting their QB in passing situations, but both teams excel in this area. KC's front line allowed the fifth-best protection and the fifth-fewest sacks allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs should also have the edge regarding turnovers. Kansas City forced more fumbles than all-but three NFL teams, and only three NFL teams fumbled the ball fewer times. KC's overall give-take differential of +9 is the sixth-best in football, while Indy ranks 13th.
KC led the league in regular season yards per game, despite ranking just 16th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Indy's running game seemed legit against the Texans last week, but over the year, they average only 107.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th league-wide. Luck's success running this apparently high-flying offense is also deceptive. Luck's regular season performance seemed impressive, but he's usually just "dinkin' and dunkin'".
The Colts completed only 41 plays yielding 20 or more yards this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in football. Kansas City did this 65 times to lead the league. Mahomes' 8.8 yards per passing attempt is second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck's 7.2 ranks him 23rd. This year's Chiefs defense struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing attack, but at least the 70-yard heart-breaker pass plays are less likely today.
The coach and the quarterback matter even more than usual in playoff match-ups. Andy Reid is better than Frank Reich. Mahomes, right now, is better than Andrew Luck and perhaps every other player in football. A combination of nasty weather and the NFL's greatest home crowd guarantees that the atmosphere at Arrowhead will be intense. Despite KC's shortcomings, I cannot predict the #6 seed to handle this situation well. I think the Chiefs make history today and beat the Colts 33-31 in a classic.
The "do or die" era of Patrick Mahomes' career begins today, Chiefs Kingdom. For devoted fans, playoff games inflict a certain kind of enjoyable illness. My stomach churns. My heart races like I'm already late for something very important. I did not sleep well last night. I never do before moments like this. This unusual and seemingly unwarranted level of stress is wonderful. It is a unique moment in which something in our heads knows that the stress we're feeling doesn't come from life-threatening responsibility but instead from passion - the passion we have for a team that will soon either etch their names in franchise history with a victory or end their season in defeat. Please remember to enjoy that feeling today, Kingdom, regardless of the outcome.
Doug LaCerte writes about Chiefs stuff, Royals stuff and enjoys anti-Raiders memes on Twitter @DLaC67.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
KC vs. Every Playoff Team: Wild Card Round Edition
The Kansas City Chiefs broke hearts all across Chiefs Kingdom in last year's playoffs. Will Patrick Mahomes be the difference between success and another divisional round disappointment? How would KC match up against not only the teams who they'll potentially face next weekend, but every team in this year's tournament? Without taking a deep look at any stats or specifics, I'm looking at each of this year's playoff teams and taking a guess at how the Chiefs would fare if they faced them.
Indy - The Indianapolis Colts enter the Wild Card Round red-hot, with Andrew Luck healthy behind a stout offensive line. I know little about their D, but it's apparently good enough to keep the offense within striking distance. KC would exorcise some demons by beating Indy at Arrowhead, and if Luck can beat Deshaun in Houston, the Chiefs will need to do exactly that. My guess is that Indy's offense would light up KC's inferior defense, but Mahomes still gets it done for a 7-10 point victory.
Texans - Watson looks legit and has led his squad to a great run after starting off slowly. The Texans D could limit KC, and their playmakers on offense match up well against the Chiefs' sub-par play at safety and ILB. I'm more scared of Houston than Indy, but I think Patty gets it done with a 3-7-point victory to prove the franchise was right in picking him over Deshaun in the draft.
Seahawks - Future Hall of Famer Russel Wilson had to play to his full potential to barely sneak past Patty and KC in the regular season. Andy Reid will not lose to that admittedly solid team twice in the same season. I'd imagine it would be close, but the Chiefs would have about a three-point edge against Seattle in a hypothetical rematch.
Cowboys - I simply don't trust Dak in the playoffs, and I don't think this Cowboys team is as good as they're hyped up to be. Chris Jones and #55 could apply pressure on Prescott, but stopping Zeke poses a real problem to the porous Chiefs. Ezekiel Elliot's hypothetical success would limit Mahomes' potential to make plays, leaving the Chiefs with a relatively low-scoring, single-possession victory over Dallas.
Chargers - I've heard enough about the L.A Chargers being the better team than KC. The eye-test still says that the Chiefs offense is dangerous every single snap, and while numbers show that Rivers is having a great season, it took a miracle for L.A to even split the series this year. Gotta give KC the slightest advantage in what would be booked and hyped as an extremely close game.
Ravens - Lamar Jackson almost got 'em the first time. While I would generally give my trust to Andy Reid in rematches because of his experience and ingenuity, I think the opposite about Chiefs DC Bob Sutton. I don't trust Sutton to get better at defending against that unique, run-heavy offense. I like Harbaugh, and I like that same Ravens D that number crunchers have loved since the start of the season. I'm going against the grain here perhaps, but I think Baltimore could sneak up and beat the Chiefs in an ugly, low-scoring game in front of the hypothetically disgruntled home fans in KC.
Philly- Nice Nickname Nick is a legend, and he could very well set the NFL ablaze yet again by beating Chicago on Sunday. Still, I can't honestly pick him and the up-and-down Eagles to beat my Chiefs at Arrowhead. Alshon Jeffery is an underrated stud, but as a whole, Philly's offense shouldn't have the kind of big-play firepower that KC's does. Mahomes Magic should give Chiefs Kingdom the edge in this what-if scenario. KC should beat Philly by 7-10 if they faced off in this year's Wild Card Round.
Da Bears- Mitch Trubisky has looked like the future of the franchise often this year, but he also fought through moments of looking young...probably because he's young. Tarik Cohen scares me more than a league-best defense led by Khalil Mack, but both frighten me deeply. Mahomes>Trubisky, but Tru only needs to be adequate while his defense stops Pat from being perfect. I think Chicago would beat KC by 7-10 points right now, but the level to which a Divisional Round victory would galvanize this squad would be impossible to foresee.
Indy - The Indianapolis Colts enter the Wild Card Round red-hot, with Andrew Luck healthy behind a stout offensive line. I know little about their D, but it's apparently good enough to keep the offense within striking distance. KC would exorcise some demons by beating Indy at Arrowhead, and if Luck can beat Deshaun in Houston, the Chiefs will need to do exactly that. My guess is that Indy's offense would light up KC's inferior defense, but Mahomes still gets it done for a 7-10 point victory.
Texans - Watson looks legit and has led his squad to a great run after starting off slowly. The Texans D could limit KC, and their playmakers on offense match up well against the Chiefs' sub-par play at safety and ILB. I'm more scared of Houston than Indy, but I think Patty gets it done with a 3-7-point victory to prove the franchise was right in picking him over Deshaun in the draft.
Seahawks - Future Hall of Famer Russel Wilson had to play to his full potential to barely sneak past Patty and KC in the regular season. Andy Reid will not lose to that admittedly solid team twice in the same season. I'd imagine it would be close, but the Chiefs would have about a three-point edge against Seattle in a hypothetical rematch.
Cowboys - I simply don't trust Dak in the playoffs, and I don't think this Cowboys team is as good as they're hyped up to be. Chris Jones and #55 could apply pressure on Prescott, but stopping Zeke poses a real problem to the porous Chiefs. Ezekiel Elliot's hypothetical success would limit Mahomes' potential to make plays, leaving the Chiefs with a relatively low-scoring, single-possession victory over Dallas.
Chargers - I've heard enough about the L.A Chargers being the better team than KC. The eye-test still says that the Chiefs offense is dangerous every single snap, and while numbers show that Rivers is having a great season, it took a miracle for L.A to even split the series this year. Gotta give KC the slightest advantage in what would be booked and hyped as an extremely close game.
Ravens - Lamar Jackson almost got 'em the first time. While I would generally give my trust to Andy Reid in rematches because of his experience and ingenuity, I think the opposite about Chiefs DC Bob Sutton. I don't trust Sutton to get better at defending against that unique, run-heavy offense. I like Harbaugh, and I like that same Ravens D that number crunchers have loved since the start of the season. I'm going against the grain here perhaps, but I think Baltimore could sneak up and beat the Chiefs in an ugly, low-scoring game in front of the hypothetically disgruntled home fans in KC.
Philly- Nice Nickname Nick is a legend, and he could very well set the NFL ablaze yet again by beating Chicago on Sunday. Still, I can't honestly pick him and the up-and-down Eagles to beat my Chiefs at Arrowhead. Alshon Jeffery is an underrated stud, but as a whole, Philly's offense shouldn't have the kind of big-play firepower that KC's does. Mahomes Magic should give Chiefs Kingdom the edge in this what-if scenario. KC should beat Philly by 7-10 if they faced off in this year's Wild Card Round.
Da Bears- Mitch Trubisky has looked like the future of the franchise often this year, but he also fought through moments of looking young...probably because he's young. Tarik Cohen scares me more than a league-best defense led by Khalil Mack, but both frighten me deeply. Mahomes>Trubisky, but Tru only needs to be adequate while his defense stops Pat from being perfect. I think Chicago would beat KC by 7-10 points right now, but the level to which a Divisional Round victory would galvanize this squad would be impossible to foresee.
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