Mahomes Magic in Major Moments Eagerly Expected

Chiefs Kingdom, today we once again reach the zenith of the football fan experience. Our Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers just hours from now to decide this year's Super Bowl champion. The stakes are at their absolute highest, and two quarterbacks who took dramatically different paths to get here are both desperate to end this part of their story in ultimate victory. We're talking about the $450-million man and the guy making $985K this season. We're talking about the guy with the best start to a career in this sport's history facing off against Mr. Irrelevant. It's one hell of a story already.

For Patrick Mahomes, more greatness is expected, because much greatness has already been produced. His career postseason Passer Rating now stands at 106.3. Since losing to Tampa in the Super Bowl, Patrick's worst performance was a 91.3 Passer Rating, which came from that loss to the Bengals that ended the 2021 Chiefs' season. In that nine-game playoff stretch, Mahomes has recorded a Passer Rating above 130 three times and completed over 73% of his passes six times. After six seasons as a starter, his trophy shelf is already full of more accomplishments than anybody not named Brady or Montana. The Chiefs have never failed to reach the Conference Championship with Mahomes as their starter, and they reach the Super Bowl 2/3rds of the time. 

Nobody in football history has a resume like that. That's not bad for a guy the NFL supposedly figured out last season by masterfully reconfiguring their defense into this mysterious, complex, brand-new concept known as "Cover 2". That's not bad for a guy whose offense was deemed broken and unfixable as recently as Christmas. It feels like it's been about a year-and-a-half, but about seven weeks ago, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas Monday. That was the last time the Chiefs lost and the last time Mahomes threw a pick. That's a worthy reminder of just how low we felt (or I felt, I should say) about this team at times through the regular season. 

This Chiefs offense wasn't supposed to be good enough to get them here. Some pundits thought they'd underperform in the frigid KC weather in the Wild Card Round against Miami. More thought Buffalo would finally get their pound of flesh from KC when they met in Orchard Park in the Divisional Round. Most recently, a vocal majority proclaimed with justified reasoning that Baltimore would be the team to stop KC from reaching another Big Game. Baltimore, with Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Patrick Queen, should've been the team to stop the Chiefs offense, and especially to stop them from attacking multiple levels of the field to leave Travis Kelce open. Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times, and Kelce had 11 catches for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Despite Brock Purdy's remarkable accomplishments throughout the last couple seasons, we can safely say KC has the better quarterback in today's game. I can actually see similarities in how we're viewing the quarterbacks, head coaches and defenses in this Super Bowl face-off. All three facets of both teams could be considered elite, yet the Chiefs are better in all three. San Fran's defense has been great at times this season, but they've struggled mightily in these playoffs against quarterbacks not named Mahomes and tight ends not named Kelce. San Fran's defense left them with a deficit in the fourth quarter against Jordan Love's Packers, and the Niners only regained the lead in that game with 1:07 left on the clock. They most recently allowed 31 points to Jared Goff's Lions. 

While San Francisco's defense has struggled in the playoffs against teams with offenses less frightening and experienced than the Chiefs, Kansas City's defense has been excellent against teams with other elite offenses. Miami's offense dominated all season long and scored seven points on KC when playoff-time arrived. The great-but-often-overrated Josh Allen played well against KC but failed to score enough to win when he finally got the Chiefs on his home turf in the playoffs. Then, the prolific offense helmed by league MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a touchdown and a field goal in their unceremonious playoff exit two weeks ago. Teams that dedicated years of focus and funding on beating the Chiefs, teams that built themselves from the ground up to beat the Chiefs, all failed to stop KC from reaching yet another Super Bowl.

San Francisco's offense is elite by every measure. They were top-five in regular season total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. Only five teams in the league finished the regular season with fewer giveaways. Purdy had too many tight-window throws and come-from-behind drives to deserve the "game manager" tag, especially when his tendency to be aggressive betrays that more than anything else. The fact that he's a legit franchise QB should no longer be questioned, as long as his price tag remains so remarkably low. He deserves his flowers, but he also is the reason I'm predicting San Fran to lose this game.

The Niners' kicker is susceptible to mistakes, while Harrison Butker has been rock solid all year long, and San Fran racked up the second-most penalty yards in football, but I still don't think these will be the deciding factors in this game. Purdy's inability to be as magic as Mahomes will be why me and many others predict a victory for KC today. I know that's like judging a really good basketball player for not being LeBron or a really good rapper for not being Kendrick, but it's the truth. We have a reasonable expectation of Patrick Mahomes to do ridiculous stuff that keeps drives alive when they should die, because that is what he always does. Brock can have a great game and still come up short today.

Plenty of NBA teams in the '90's went up against Jordan's Bulls and suffered heart-breaking defeat. I assume they felt the way Purdy's Niners are about to feel. Sometimes you just go up against an unstoppable force and lose. That's what happened to a lot of teams in the Jordan Era of pro basketball. Now, in the heart of the NFL's Mahomes Era, it's time for Brock and his team to feel that pain. As always, I hope you enjoy this moment with people who love football and love you.

27-20, Chiefs.

KC's Elite D Key to Victory in Super Bowl Rematch

Tonight, the NFL gives us the best game they could possibly offer in the regular season. Hours from now, the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles take the field at Arrowhead to face off with the reigning Super Bowl champs. This rematch of last year's Big Game offers KC a chance to get more confident and Philly a chance to get a little revenge. Despite these teams putting 73 total points on the board last time they met, today's over/under for total points sits at 46. These two teams are still great, but the Chiefs have achieved that greatness in unexpected ways.

The huge improvement of KC's defense probably counts as the most pleasant surprise for Chiefs Kingdom this year. This Chiefs defense ranks fourth in total yards and passing yards allowed per game and allows the league's second-fewest points per game. They'll be facing a Philly offense that racks up the fourth-most total yards per game and scores the NFL's third-most points per game. The Eagles offense features the best quarterback-receiver duo in the league - yes, better than Tua and Tyreek. Jalen Hurts is second only to Patrick Mahomes in odds to win MVP this season, and A.J. Brown has been about as consistently great as possible this year. Brown has at least six catches in nine of Philly's 10 games this season, and he racked up over 125 receiving yards in six of them. 

Many other potent elements of the Eagles' offense keeps them balanced. Hurts averages 9.8 rushes per game. DeVonta Smith has seven games with at least four catches and punishes teams who devote too much attention to Brown. D'Andre Swift is averaging over 16 carries per game for over 75 yards in his last eight games. It won't be easy to limit Philly's offense, but the Chiefs are well-equipped to do so. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie helped the Chiefs limit Miami - the only team in football to put up more total points and total yards than Philly - to just 14 points.

While the Eagles defense doesn't stand out on paper as much as KC's currently does, both defenses excel in pressuring opposing QB's. The Chiefs' 31 team sacks ties for #8 in the league. The Eagles' multi-faceted attack featuring Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter and Haason Reddick is right behind KC with 30 team sacks. The Chiefs only allow 1.3 sacks per game this season, tying them for the fewest in the NFL. Continuing that level of success on the front lines will be crucial to keeping KC alive in tonight's game.

I don't want a moment this potentially epic to be hampered by penalties, but numbers indicate that it's possible. They also indicate that KC isn't likely to get the upper hand in this regard. The Chiefs have the third-worst net yardage differential from penalties this season, while the Eagles have the fifth-best. Both teams are fresh and relatively healthy after their bye week, with veteran Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, second-string Philly safety Justin Evans and rarely-utilized Chiefs receiver Richie James being the only names on the final injury report. Whether or not a return to nearly-full strength for KC makes the Chiefs better than Philly remains to be proven.

The Eagles handled the Dolphins 31-17 earlier this season. They're coming off a victory over the Cowboys. Their -2 turnover differential this season isn't great, but it's better than Kansas City's -4. A moment or two when KC's flaws result in them losing a game to a great opponent seem inevitable based on what we've seen from the Chiefs this season. This game is a prime example, so I'm begrudgingly predicting a sad ending to a thrilling game, and a 26-23 Philly victory. It should be close, and it could even come down to overtime. I hope I'm dead wrong, and I hope you get to enjoy it with people who love football and love you. Cheers, Chiefs Kingdom.

Here's Why KC Will Bounce Back in Jacksonville

    Looks like the good times are over, Chiefs Kingdom. Go ahead and jump off the bus now. May as well find another team to cheer for. Our Kansas City Chiefs lost 21-20 to the Detroit Lions last week, and their opponents this Sunday look like a consistent playoff contender for years to come. A dark cloud hung over the Kingdom after that disappointing start, but despite what the haters may say, the sky will not fall.

    Look past the sting of this defeat and recognize that the Chiefs played without two of the team's three best players and still put themselves in position to win numerous times. Then, well-placed Patrick Mahomes passes bounced off receivers' hands, as Chiefs fans everywhere audibly and collectively groaned. Also recognize that the once-lowly Lions emerged as a legitimate winner late last season and showed up ready for their shot at the champs. Fortunately for KC, we should probably see Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back in action for Week 2. Those returns will be crucial against a Jacksonville Jaguars team with immeasurable desire to get revenge on the rivals who knocked them out of last year's playoffs.

    The Jags offense looks studly after the inclusion of Calvin Ridley and rookie Tank Bigsby, but their secondary still looks suspect. Last season, the Jags ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The top three most-used cornerbacks and safeties for Jacksonville last season are slotted into the same spots on the depth chart this season. Jacksonville's secondary limited Colts QB Anthony Richardson in his NFL debut last week, but Patrick is not Anthony Richardson, and this is not his NFL debut.  While Jacksonville held Richardson to a 30.6 QBR and 79 Passer Rating, Mahomes finished last year's AFC Divisional Round faceoff with a 78.5 QBR and a 112.5 RTG. Just don't let Jags edge rusher extraordinaire Josh Allen ruin Kansas City's day; he sacked Richardson three times and hit him twice last week.

    I don't want to rain on the parade of a potential rivalry or be overly reductive here, but without improving the part of their team that was most vulnerable last season, the Jags put a ceiling on the amount of fear they can instill in the hearts of Chiefs fans. Calvin Ridley may look like a top-10 receiver against a Chiefs secondary that is by no means perfect, but I trust an angry, motivated Patrick Mahomes to make a statement at the expense of the Jaguars this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence and his offense could look really impressive in this game and still get outscored by double-digits thanks to the legendary tandem of a pissed-off Mahomes and the best tight end ever, Travis Kelce. I'm predicting a 34-24 Chiefs victory and a lot of back-tracking from football pundits prematurely predicting KC's demise.