Friday, January 6, 2023

Stidham, Vegas Seek Vengeance As Chiefs Seek Bye Week

Only the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC's #1 seed. The Raiders will once again start career-backup Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and their defense will omit Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. These changes should help make this a stress-free Saturday in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'm not so sure. Raiders fans desperately desire a rivalry here, but no true rivalry exists when the competition is completely lop-sided, and Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 in his career against the Raiders. Despite a depleted roster, the Raiders probably see this strange Saturday game as the Super Bowl for spoilers.

I still want to believe that today's game will be an easy test for the Chiefs, but KC played down to inferior teams all season long, and they only snuck past Vegas by a point in their previous meeting. Also, Stidham looked legit last week when Vegas scored 34 and took San Fran to overtime. His 77.4 QBR in that game was only matched by Mahomes once in KC's last four games. However, Mahomes' season average for QBR sits at 77.8, which is less a knock on Stidham and more evidence that KC's golden boy should earn his second MVP award this season.

I would love to predict a blow-out victory for KC, but they converted on only 22.22% of their third downs last week - the lowest percentage in the NFL in Week 17. The Chiefs aren't facing Denver's beefy defense this week, though, and the Raiders defense ranks among the NFL's bottom eight in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Maybe Stidham's more studly than I anticipated, but he is most certainly not on the level of soon-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

The Chiefs give me no peace of mind when facing subpar opponents, thanks to their aforementioned struggles against them all season long, but they also earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming those struggles almost every time. Also, Patrick Mahomes would give this team the benefit of the doubt even if the rest of the roster didn't deserve it. I'm predicting a frustrating 37-31 victory for the reigning division champs. The Chiefs, specifically the leaders on this Chiefs roster, rarely disappoint in a game of this magnitude, especially when facing such ineffectual opposition.

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