When was the last time the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom felt this low? Losing a Super Bowl is frustrating, of course, but the Kansas City Chiefs performed impressively in practically every moment until the Big Game at the end of the season. I'm more thinking about fear than frustration, I suppose. With two games left in the season, the Chiefs already have six losses. The lack of fan confidence (at least this fan's confidence) entering this game against a backup QB and a team not expected to reach the playoffs tells you all you need to know about the Chiefs' vulnerability at this point.
The Cincinnati Bengals are one loss away from effectively ending their season. If Cincy wins their final two games and gets help from other 8-7 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card hunt, Jake Browning's Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. They're alive, but just barely; their chances are at or below 20%, depending on which proprietary stat you choose to use for a measuring stick. Chiefs recently lost to other desperate teams fighting for their playoff lives when they faced the Packers and Bills, so should Cincy scare KC today? The Raiders didn't scare anybody last week, and they embarrassed KC on Christmas.
Football can be weird. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell posted an 88.8 QBR in his first meeting with the Chiefs this season, and the Raiders lost by 14. He just posted a 12.1 QBR on the Chiefs - on Christmas, at Arrowhead - and the Chiefs lost by six. This Christmas day, a fumble on a trick play and a pick-six occurred within seven seconds of game-time. Before ten seconds could run off the clock, the Raiders defense scored as much as the Chiefs would score all day. That's a testament to the occasional flukiness of football, but it's also more evidence that KC's offense has not figured out how to pull their team out of the fire when it matters most.
Mahomes still has his magical moments, but on paper, he looks like a totally different guy since the Week 8 disaster in Denver. He had a QBR higher than 64 in all of his first seven games of this season. Since Week 8, he's only posted a QBR above 61 once. Mahomes never took more than two sacks in any of his first seven games. Since then, he's been sacked three or more times in four different games.
Five of those sacks this season were allowed by Jawaan Taylor, who also leads the NFL in penalties with 17. L'Jarius Sneed, by the way, is tied for fourth with 10 penalties, making the Chiefs the only team in the league with multiple players in the top-10 in penalties drawn. For Taylor in particular, these penalties are beyond disappointing. He just penned a four-year, $80-million contract with the Chiefs last offseason. PFF gives him a 50.1 overall grade for his efforts in 2023. Since Taylor' effectiveness is so critical to the effectiveness of Mahomes - the most important man on the field whenever he's on the field - Taylor's struggles may be the biggest and most understated factor in the recent decline of KC's offense.
All of these are factors that I believe the Chiefs will overcome today, thanks in large part to the Bengals' struggles on defense. They allow the second-most yards-per-game average, despite the best efforts of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. KC's defense is still holding strong with the league's second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and total points-per-game allowed. I'll predict an ugly 17-13 victory for KC. Enjoy the game with people who love football, and enjoy all the new year with people who love you.
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