Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Season Preview- September


Another major moment in the offseason that often goes unmentioned is the release of the new schedule. Sports media gets clogged with Draft Day talk and free agency moves at this time of year. People make plans to watch with friends or family. Folks gather together in crowded bars, watching Draft Day pregame analysis and enjoying Draft Day drink specials. Sadly, no corks were popped for the important announcement of which teams stand in the way of your favorite club's ascension to greatness. Now that fans know who and when they play, the hypothesizing and the fantasizing become all-the-more concrete. Even with the regular season being over four months away, that's still something to appreciate. So, let's run through Kansas City's 2013 schedule. With free agent acquisitions to look at and Draft Day looming near, there are plenty of things to talk about aside from the new schedule, but I'm doing it anyway. So, we'll take it one month at a time, and that means today we'll be looking forward to September.

Before we get started, just let it be known that I reserve the right to change any game predictions I make here, right up until the moment that game begins. Lots of things can happen, and we've got an entire draft yet to come- as if ESPN could possibly let you forget. I promise I'm not especially flip-floppy. I just want to be thorough.

Week 1- Chiefs at Jaguars, September 8th

The season starts with a real bang as the league's two worst teams clash in Jacksonville. Last year's Jags offense ranks above only the Cardinals and the last-place Chiefs in points scored. With MJD starting only 5 games, their rushing offense was the 3rd worst league-wide. To top it all off, they couldn't stop anyone on defense, either. Jacksonville allowed the 3rd most yards and the 3rd most points in 2012. The only disparaging thing about those statistics are just how similar they are to the Chiefs last season. However, the changes that the Jaguars made do not serve the optimist as well as the changes made in Kansas City. It's reasonable to assume that the Reid-Dorsey rebuilding process will turn out better than.... whatever they're doing down there in Jacksonville. They could have an A+ draft and still be worse on paper than Kansas City is right now.

Prediction: The Chiefs start the season with a comfortable win and a lot of momentum to bring back to Arrowhead.


Week 2- Chiefs vs. Cowboys, September 15th

This year's home opener should be intriguing and difficult. This is one of many games that will be much easier to decide after the draft. If the Chiefs supplement the secondary with a 2nd or 3rd round pick that makes an immediate impact, I may be predicting a win here in the future. Otherwise, it could be too tough to stop last year's 3rd best passing offense. Andy has plenty of experience coaching against Dallas, but has always struggled to stop Romo and Company from advancing the ball through the air at their leisure.

Prediction: Jamaal should have a good enough outing to slow things down and keep scoring lower than expected. The game will be decided by a key turnover, and unfortunately, it will probably come from a member of Dallas' talented secondary. The Chiefs lose, and the fans have visions in their sleep of all the interceptions from years past. Many awaken in the dead of night, drenched in a cold sweat, rubbing their eyes furiously, trying in vain to erase the blurry images of Steve Bono and Matt Cassel still lingering in their tortured minds. I shudder at the thought.

Week 3- Chiefs at Eagles, September 19th

This should be interesting. Andy Reid takes his new team to his old home as the Chiefs take on Philadelphia. It's hard to say right now what Chip Kelly will make of the pieces left over from Andy's era, but there is still plenty of talent in Philly right now. Assuming Vick starts next year, the new-look Eagles could be the NFL's equivalent of a Run and Gun offense. A dynamic offense that stretches the field vertically and challenges the edges with rushing speed isn't too hard to imagine. That all sounds great to a starving Eagles fan-base- that is, until their star QB gets hurt, again, and leaves their team to flounder in mediocrity, again.

Prediction: If Vick starts, the Eagles will get off to an early lead. Then, he'll get hurt, and when Nick Foles comes in to make Philly's offense predictable again, KC turns things around for an exciting comeback win on the road. If Vick doesn't start, said predictability from the Eagles offense should allow the Chiefs to outscore Philly for a slightly more comfortable victory.


Week 4- Chiefs vs. Giants, September 29th

The Giants come into town this fall with a grudge and a lot of previous success. Even in a down year, New York's offense ranked 6th in 2012. The passing and rushing game ranked 12th and 13th respectively, and improving on those stats may prove difficult this year. Without Ahmad Bradshaw, or a clear answer at tight end, New York has a lot of work to do to improve through the draft and free agency. Even with all the changes on the offensive side of the ball, the defense was clearly what kept the G-Men out of the playoffs. They gave up the 5th most yards through the air and the 8th most yards through the ground last year. So, does this mean the newly revamped Chiefs offense can edge out an important win against Eli and the Giants?

Prediction: No. It doesn't. The Giants' front office has successfully retooled the team several times to get them well-equipped for a playoff run. They could draft Eifert from Notre Dame to give Eli another legitimate passing threat, or they could improve their defense and return to their former days of defensive dominance. Either way, the staff in New York will do enough to make the team successful, and Eli will have enough firepower to abuse a KC secondary that will inevitably go through some growing pains.

So, according to these very flimsy predictions, the Chiefs end the month with a .500 record, but are winless at Arrowhead. Hopefully, those losing predictions were hogwash, because losing those home games will do little to improve the formerly intimidating crowd factor. On-again, off-again fans of KC football won't see the off-the-field moves that put this team in a great position to be a contender for years to come. They'll see two losses at home, and a lot of sad fans. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and Arrowhead has every reason to explode this September. Sadly, two of the toughest games on the league's 5th-easiest schedule are difficult, early games at home.

Thankfully, winning in October should be much more feasible. With games against the Titans, Raiders and Browns, KC should be turning things around before All Hallow's Eve. Next week, we'll break down all the October match-ups. Stay tuned for more free agent analysis and draft day speculation.

No comments:

Post a Comment