Sunday, November 17, 2013

Bye Week Breakdown Part 2: More Mile High Moments

Game day is here, Chiefs fans, and what a game it should be. Tonight's matchup at Mile High with Peyton and the Broncos is arguably the biggest regular season game in decades. Here, we have the league's best offense facing off against its best defense. Now that they're led by the same legendary quarterback that booted KC from the playoffs time and time again, the Broncos have become the two-headed monsters of bitter rivalry.

Both teams' impressively high level of play now makes the rivalry even more heated. These teams' combined winning percentage is the highest of any late-season matchup in the NFL since 1969. Tonight, we could be watching the most intriguing Broncos/Chiefs game since 15 years and 1 day ago, when Shannon Sharp recited Derrick Thomas' girlfriend's phone number to him before every snap. Win or lose, this game is destined to go down on the list of all-time great Broncos/Chiefs battles.

If you're not excited about this, you're soulless, and I don't think we could ever be friends.

When it comes to predicting a winner in this game, a lot of the focus will, and should go to Peyton and this studly Chiefs defense. However, it will be the Denver defense that will stop Manning from pulling away more than anything else. Only seven teams have allowed more points to be scored, and only five have given up more first downs. Denver actually allows more than twice as many points per game (26.4) as Kansas City (12.3).

Turnovers could be another huge factor in this game. While the Chiefs still comfortably lead the league in turnover ratio at +15, the Broncos are sitting in the bottom half at -2. Alex Smith continues to impress with his smart, conservative play, and the special teams squads have executed to great effect without any fumble problems (better knock on wood for that one.)

A win tonight proves a small nation of Chiefs naysayers wrong and shows that KC has it was takes to beat legit competition. A loss gives the Chiefs a tie for the divisional lead and a new sense of insecurity. We know this team is fallible, but we also know they can win close, hard-fought games. Thing is, those hard-fought games have often come against mediocre competition. After tonight, we'll have a better understanding of how they can contend against the league's best teams in the upcoming playoffs again (go ahead and knock on wood again, just in case.) Here are my five predictions for tonight:

1- The Chiefs, who still lead the league in sacks with 36, will look to muck things up for Denver by never giving Manning time to breath. Unfortunately, this forces football's quickest-thinking improviser to, uhh, improvise quickly. KC's offense keeps this one close, and a couple timely turnovers make it even closer. In the end, well-executed screen plays and at least one blown coverage gives Denver the edge. 27-23 Broncos, but man do I hope I'm wrong.

2- Alex Smith is an underrated passer, and Andy Reid isn't afraid of going over the top. Look for Smith to get his first huge connection with Donnie Avery against the aging, struggling Denver secondary. Beers will be spilled in the Chiefs Kingdom.

3- The offensive lines for both teams are flawed, but that won't necessarily translate into a lot of sacks. Expect a lot of hits on the quarterback, but don't expect a boatload of sacks from Tamba and/or Houston. Neither team will sack the opposing QB more than 4 times tonight.

4- Both Smith and Manning will be looking to get the ball out of their hands ASAP tonight, and both QBs are known for being smart and decisive. Despite constant pressure, expect both of them to complete over 60% of their passes.


5- The Chiefs love scoring in unorthodox ways. Expect at least one score from the defense or special teams in the second half to make wrinkles of concern appear on Peyton's billboard-like forehead.


Doug LaCerte operates this blog and does a bunch of other writing for Rant Sports. Trade jokes about Peyton's bulbous head with him on Twitter @DLaC67, "Like" his rude comments about John Elway's teeth on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

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