Can Motivated Mahomes Outmatch Dominant Denver Defense?

One of their most important regular season games in years awaits the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs this afternoon. Without a win today, KC will almost certainly fail to win their division. This would force them to play road games in the playoffs. It would also force fans like us to consider the possibility that the Chiefs don't make the playoffs at all, which would make for an unprecedented low-point in the Mahomes-Reid era. To dismiss all these concerns today, the Chiefs must find a way to score against a defense that's on pace to be one of the all-time greats.

The 8-2 Denver Broncos' dominant defense is the reason they're leading the AFC West. The Chiefs aren't too far behind in many important categories, though. KC ranks sixth in total yardage allowed per game, and Denver ranks third. The Broncos also rank third in points allowed per game, but the Chiefs are right behind in fourth place league-wide. The biggest difference comes in these teams' abilities to attack opposing quarterbacks.

Denver has 46 sacks, which is a total that only seven teams reached in the entire 2024 regular season and 14 more than any other team this season. Three different Broncos have at least six sacks. Nick Bonitto has 9.5 and a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. So, if the Chiefs are facing a divisional opponent with a Super Bowl-winning coach and a defense that's historically great on paper, why am I not worried?

Bo Nix is the reason. He's an objectively below-average QB at this point. ESPN's QBR thinks he's just normal-bad, while the Passer Rating algorithm thinks he's worse than Justin Fields. That Denver defense is incredible, and they're an eight-win team, and I still don't believe in them at all. I know they can only play the teams on their schedule, but the amount of duds on that schedule makes their record seem like a mirage.

Jalen Hurts' Eagles are the only good team with a good quarterback the Broncos have beaten so far. They played two early-season games against teams with quarterbacks considered good this season - Indy's Daniel Jones and the Chargers' Justin Herbert - and they lost both games. They held a potent Cowboys offense to 24 points and posted 44 on that awful defense in late October. Aside from these four games with capable QBs in which the Broncos went 2-2 and looked flawed, Denver has feasted on mediocrity.
 
They faced Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, Davis Mills (Stroud got hurt after 10 pass attempts) and Geno Smith. They beat the Jets, Giants, Texans and Raiders by nine points combined. The've played more teams that are currently in last place than teams that currently have winning records. That victory over Philly is Denver's only victory against a winning football team.

In a must-win moment, trusting Patrick Mahomes is my nature. Trusting Bo Nix more in that kind of moment is incomprehensible. It may be ugly, it may not impress all the Chiefs' critics, but the Chiefs aren't losing a game this important against a team so accustomed to facing inferior competition. I'm picking the Chiefs to win a tense 20-17 battle.

Brief Bye Week Breakdown of KC's Team Stats

The bye week has arrived, and it came right around mid-season this year, so now is the perfect time to check out the big-picture stats for our 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs. The numbers indicate big, positive changes for KC this season without many steps backwards. Credit, as always, goes to Brett Veach for putting the Chiefs in a position to succeed every year. Patrick Mahomes also makes winning easier, as we all know, and his numbers at this point make him a strong early bet for MVP. The only guy more likely to earn that award, according to DraftKings, is the guy who beat him 28-21 last week.

Through the 2024 reguar season, seven quarterbacks with at least 15 starts averaged more passing yards per game than Patrick Mahomes. Only three QB's with more than two starts this season average more than him now. He threw the ninth-most touchdowns last regular season. His 17 touchdown passes through nine games of this season has only been surpassed by three guys. It's also worth noting that Mahomes compiled 2/3rds of this without Rashee Rice, who just missed six games to suspension.

This improvement must have something to do with the Chiefs' improved ability to protect their aforementioned face of the franchise. KC ranked 19th in QB sacked percentage in 2024, meaning they allowed Mahomes to be sacked more often than average last season. This season, that percentage has dropped to just 5.11%, which ranks ninth league-wide. On the opposite side, the Chiefs sack the opposing QB 7.43% of the time, which is good for 14th right now. That's very similar to last year's percentage in the regular season, when they ranked 15th. 

The overall stats for KC suggest the strong defense has remained strong and the offense has significantly improved. The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL in yards per game this season and ninth in points per game. Last year, they finished the regular season 17th in yards per game and 15th in points. They're allowing the seventh-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points after allowing the ninth-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points last season. Remember when former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton played that never-changing, bland defense for years and limited the potential greatness of this era of Chiefs football? Neither do I.

Spags Stuffing Buffalo's Run-Game Can Keep KC's #1 Seed Hopes Healthy

Patrick Mahomes is so damn great that he constantly overshadows how good Josh Allen is, and I think that will continue this afternoon at Orchard Park. Their 2025 output looks remarkably similar. Allen's completion percentage is exactly one point higher than Patrick's. His average for yards per pass attempt is 0.5 yards higher, and his Passer Rating is 0.5 points higher. Both elite QB's have thrown four picks and been sacked 14 times for 85 yards lost. While both these future Hall of Famers feasted on bad defenses in weeks prior, they both face elite pass defenses this afternoon.

The Bills rank second league-wide in passing yards allowed per game, and the Chiefs rank third. Every AFC team that always has Mahomes standing between them and a Super Bowl appearance needs to focus on making their secondaries solid, and it seems Buffalo has done that this season. The strength of the Bills' secondary paired with the Buffalo defense ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game could result in the Chiefs running the ball more often and with more success. KC isn't as bad at anything as Buffalo is at stopping the run, but the Chiefs defense also isn't great at slowing down great running backs. While KC's defense ranks fourth overall in yards allowed per game, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game. James Cook III is second only to Jonathan Taylor in total rushing yards, and as ESPN's preview of the game pointed out, the Bills are undefeated when he either reaches 100 rushing yards or scores.

How Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo chooses to counter this and how the defense implements his decisions will decide the winner today. Cook III averages only 28.7 rushing yards per game over his career against the Chiefs, but he also averages 3.3 receptions for 30 yards per game. Consider that a small sample size, though, because Cook III will face KC for only the fourth time in his fourth pro season today. Last time he saw KC's defense was in the Arrowhead Invitational, known in some parts as the AFC Championship, when he finished with 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and 49 receiving yards. KC managed to win that game thanks to an 11-point fourth quarter, but allowing 29 to any team is concerning.

Both of these top-shelf teams need this win to keep their hopes for the #1 seed in the AFC healthy. Mahomes typically succeeds when it matters most, and this is the most important game he'll be a part of until the start of the playoffs. This largely untested Bills team is hungry, but they looked far-from-perfect when they lost to New England and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks. Despite the Chiefs facing perhaps their toughest test of the regular season today, I knew all week who I would pick to win this important face-off. I'm taking the Chiefs in a hard-fought 26-24 battle.