Patrick Mahomes is so damn great that he constantly overshadows how good Josh Allen is, and I think that will continue this afternoon at Orchard Park. Their 2025 output looks remarkably similar. Allen's completion percentage is exactly one point higher than Patrick's. His average for yards per pass attempt is 0.5 yards higher, and his Passer Rating is 0.5 points higher. Both elite QB's have thrown four picks and been sacked 14 times for 85 yards lost. While both these future Hall of Famers feasted on bad defenses in weeks prior, they both face elite pass defenses this afternoon.
The Bills rank second league-wide in passing yards allowed per game, and the Chiefs rank third. Every AFC team that always has Mahomes standing between them and a Super Bowl appearance needs to focus on making their secondaries solid, and it seems Buffalo has done that this season. The strength of the Bills' secondary paired with the Buffalo defense ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game could result in the Chiefs running the ball more often and with more success. KC isn't as bad at anything as Buffalo is at stopping the run, but the Chiefs defense also isn't great at slowing down great running backs. While KC's defense ranks fourth overall in yards allowed per game, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game. James Cook III is second only to Jonathan Taylor in total rushing yards, and as ESPN's preview of the game pointed out, the Bills are undefeated when he either reaches 100 rushing yards or scores.
How Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo chooses to counter this and how the defense implements his decisions will decide the winner today. Cook III averages only 28.7 rushing yards per game over his career against the Chiefs, but he also averages 3.3 receptions for 30 yards per game. Consider that a small sample size, though, because Cook III will face KC for only the fourth time in his fourth pro season today. Last time he saw KC's defense was in the Arrowhead Invitational, known in some parts as the AFC Championship, when he finished with 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and 49 receiving yards. KC managed to win that game thanks to an 11-point fourth quarter, but allowing 29 to any team is concerning.
Both of these top-shelf teams need this win to keep their hopes for the #1 seed in the AFC healthy. Mahomes typically succeeds when it matters most, and this is the most important game he'll be a part of until the start of the playoffs. This largely untested Bills team is hungry, but they looked far-from-perfect when they lost to New England and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks. Despite the Chiefs facing perhaps their toughest test of the regular season today, I knew all week who I would pick to win this important face-off. I'm taking the Chiefs in a hard-fought 26-24 battle.
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