Saturday, January 16, 2021

Gambling Goodness Today, Mahomes Magic Tomorrow

The reigning champs of the NFL play tomorrow, but Chiefs Kingdom gets two playoff battles to enjoy today. While we're at it, let's make some money! Betting on sports is legal now, I think, so I can talk about spreads and parlays and all that fun stuff. Let's just dip our toe in the water with two good bets for two intriguing games.

Football fans worldwide look forward to seeing the beefy Los Angeles Rams defense facing off with the prolific Packers passing attack. A Los Angeles secondary that tackles well should limit yards after the catch for Packers receivers like the dominant Davante Adams. The absence of legendary left tackle David Bakhtiari should hurt Green Bay's ability to protect Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Donald's health is also somewhat in question, but the entire Rams defense is impressive. The last time Rodgers faced a strong defense in the playoffs, he threw two picks and lost by 17 to the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams should make this one closer than Vegas assumes, so I'm betting that the Packers will fail to cover a 6 1/2-point spread. 

Green Bay's 31.8 points per game in the regular season led the league, but they played some awful defenses. If we're ranking defenses based on points allowed per game, the Packers played five regular season games against bottom-five defenses and seven games against the bottom ten. Green Bay hasn't faced a top-five defense since September. Since then, they faced off with only two top-ten defenses, and they lost both times. I'm not saying Rodgers can't win today. I just think this game will be decided by fewer than seven points. Bet the spread, thank me later, and give a little bit of your winnings to Patrick Mahomes' trustworthy charity.

While the Packers' recent history shows little proof of success against elite defenses, the Buffalo Bills have no such problem. Josh Allen's squad won three games against three of the best defenses in football when they beat the Rams, Steelers and Miami Dolphins in regular season play. Only the Rams kept the contest within a single possession. Buffalo's offense seems unstoppable lately, and despite Baltimore's legit defense, I'm keeping my eye on betting lines for the Bills.

Buffalo averaged a whopping 38.9 points over their last eight regular season games. Today's Over/Under for Bills points currently rests at 26.5. Buffalo only scored fewer than 26.5 once over their last nine games, when they scored 26 against the Steelers in Week 14. Bet the Over on points for the Bills, then give back to KC by donating to the folks who help keep our city's underprivileged kids healthy. Gambling is good for you and good for society, see?

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