Do KC's Injuries Spell Doom In Denver?

An intense divisional rivalry returns to Mile High Stadium tonight, when your 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 7-3 Denver Broncos. This is the first time KC traveled to The Centennial State since pummeling the Broncos 29-13 over a year ago. Despite being two of the NFL’s best teams, neither team in tonight’s game is getting positive production from their quarterbacks.

Alex Smith hasn't looked like a legit franchise QB since he faced the defensively inept New Orleans Saints in Week 7. In fact, Alex only looked "good" in three, maybe four of KC's 10 games played so far this season. Smith went 17 for 24 against the Saints for 214 yards and 2 TDs without throwing a pick. In the week prior, he beat up the Oakland Raiders in Oakland with a 19/22, 224-yard performance that broke the franchise record for single-game completion percentage. In Week 3, Smith helped KC take advantage of a billion Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers by completing 25 of 33 passes and earning 237 yards through the air.

We can also include his comeback performance against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1, when Alex threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns to overcome a huge deficit and lead KC to a 1-0 record. That's four games out of 10 in which your franchise QB looked average or better. Even with a few flashes of brilliance, Chiefs fans can't help but wonder if Smith is good enough to ever win them a Super Bowl. No team has won a Super Bowl with a subpar quarterback since- wait, never mind.

It can be done, but winning the Big Game without a good/great QB requires an excellent defense. When Kansas City brings all their defensive starters to the field, that's what they have. Sadly, the Chiefs enter this game without many of their most important defensive pieces today, which makes winning in Denver a tough bet. Jaye Howard, Dee Ford and Steven Nelson are out today, while Marcus Peters, Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are still listed as questionable. That’s one or two starters at every level of the defense that won’t be playing today. I tried mightily to sell myself on a Chiefs victory tonight, but it doesn’t seem likely.

In order for KC to win tonight, Smith needs to outperform Trevor Siemian. If not for the Chiefs’ current injury issues, I’d say that’s possible, if not likely. Both quarterbacks are similarly unimpressive at this point of the season; Smith ranks 26^th league-wide in yards-per-game, while Siemian ranks 28^th. Alex seemed to miss his Captain Checkdown moniker after impressing many Chiefs fans through Week 7, because he’s recently returned to that pointless short-pass style in a major way. Only six starting QBs have a higher completion percentage than Smith’s 67.2%, but 22 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts have a higher yard-per-catch average than Alex’s 6.9.

Things could get ugly if KC’s patchwork defense allows Siemian to get comfortable. If Denver’s young QB gets enough time in the pocket to consistently find Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, our Chiefs are in trouble. Thomas and Sanders both have over 50 catches, over 650 yards and average over 12 yards per catch. I have to predict a 20-13 loss for our Chiefs today, but it wouldn’t be too disastrous. I’m always stoked for a game against a division rival, but I’ll be even more excited to see KC face the defending champs with a healthy defense. A loss for our Chiefs today won’t be the end of the world, but a loss for the Broncos could really send them scrambling. That would be delicious, but not absolutely necessary for a strong KC playoff run.

Doug LaCerte definitely still uses Twitter @DLaC67, and kinda still uses Facebook.