Sunday, September 30, 2012

High Hopes Heading Home


So the Chiefs are losing in New Orleans, 17-6, with six minutes and change left in the third quarter. Matt Cassel drops back to pass, and stares himself right into a bad interception. Saints ball, 1st and goal on the 7. One can almost smell the dread at this moment. Saints hike the ball. Touchdown. No hope. Season over. All is lost.

Shaun Draughn returns the following kick to the nine yard line, and Matt Cassel takes the field again. Great.

First play is a hand-off to Jamaal, left side. He's got a hole. A big one. The blocks are all setting up.

Uh-oh.

Like a flash, 25 is off to the races. He blows past the Saints secondary for 91 yards and the score. Touchdown. 24-13. Brand new game.

Just like that, hope sprang anew. The game wasn't over, the season wasn't over, and everybody knew that Jamaal was officially back. It brought life to a lifeless Chiefs fan base, and may have kept some fans from burning their jerseys and finding a new team to root for. So who deserves the credit for this riveting victory? Who besides Jamaal, obviously?

Well, you'll still hear harsh and hilarious jokes about this Chiefs defense for weeks to come, regardless of what they do this Sunday. But, with flaws abound, many fans are solely blaming the defense for a disappointing 1-2 start. There aren't nearly as many fingers being pointed/ curse words being shouted at the guys on offense, especially after last week's 500+ yard performance. And have you checked the stats lately? The Chiefs are the #1 offense in football, right?

Let's settle down on the "best offense in the league" talk for a minute. Yes, the Chiefs do have the league's highest yardage total, but let's put that into perspective: Jamaal Charles had 288 total yards last week.  He's averaging 107 yards on the ground. His performance paired him with Jim Brown as the only men in NFL history with 250 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards in a single game. Dwayne Bowe has 234 receiving yards, many of which came too late in the blowout in Buffalo.

 The rest of the offense? Meh. Hillis has 126 total yards this season. The passing game is 16th in the NFL, the exact middle of the proverbial road. And if you've watched Matt Cassel play, you know he's not bailing the Chiefs out of any games this year.

Cassel doesn't have any embarrassing stats to point and laugh at, but just watching how he operates under pressure leaves many Chiefs fans hypothesizing about Brady Quinn. Every game makes it more evident that this offense is held back by the guy playing the most important position. The dream of Cassel coming to life in an offense that's custom-built to his limitations is over. The idea of him spreading the ball all over the field to these talented skill-players will never be a consistent reality. He realizes this, the team realizes this, and thankfully, Daboll realizes this. So instead of putting the game in Cassel’s hands, Jamaal has 33 carries and 6 receptions. Giving Charles that many touches is asking for disaster, which Daboll probably understands. It will be one hell of a task to get this offense going next week, especially with the current injury problems; Breaston, Bowe, McCluster and Wylie are questionable to start, Hillis is doubtful, and Boss is out. Add losing center Rodney Hudson for the season, as kind of a fart-flavored cherry on top, and the offense should be expected to falter often against San Diego. The franchise adjusts to Cassel’s mediocrity by giving him plenty of short-field options to throw to, and without many of them, his play could go from subpar to awful quickly.

So don't be fooled by one legendary game from #25. This offense is not stellar, and they will have plenty of ugly moments to struggle through in coming weeks. Sorry to spoil the party. So, why is everybody still so happy? Why is there still hope? It's not just dementia brought on by watching a thrilling overtime win after two miserable blowouts. It's the defense. Yeah, I said it. It's the defense that held a determined Drew Brees scoreless for 38 and a half minutes. It's Justin Houston, making some memories and developing into a serious weapon. By the time you realize Buffalo's run game is legit and Atlanta may be Super-Bowl bound, the thorough beatings KC received against them seem less painful in hindsight, at least somewhat. So one starts to wonder- are we looking at a good defense here?

Not yet, if you look at the numbers. Still a lot of yards allowed, still giving up too many points. But seeing the game last Sunday, anyone would agree that the defense bailed the offense out not once, but many, many times. People may forget it after such an ugly start, but this is not a bad Saints offense. In week 1, New Orleans scored 34 against Washington, despite having 3 turnovers and 12 penalties that resulted in 107 squandered yards. Their points total is 9th in the league. To shut down Brees in so many consecutive huge moments takes consistent execution. Crenell's job depends on whether or not he can make the defense execute the game-plan consistently, so this performance was a big step in the right direction. The signs are there that, in time, we will see a top-shelf defense take the field each and every Sunday. Because of a front line that cannot apply pressure by itself, and a secondary prone to deep attacks in the middle of the field, we're talking about the future, and not the present. But the signs are there. Didn't you enjoy seeing the standings this week and realizing it still matters? If this defense continues to play like it did in that second half in New Orleans, fans may spend a lot more time checking the standings throughout the following months than we ever thought possible two weeks ago.

            That brings us to, well, today. A win at home against the Chargers ensures a tie for the lead in the division. Imagine how far-off 1st place felt after the Chiefs got stomped in Buffalo. It's right there, up for grabs in this game. A loss ensures that the sky comes falling down, all over again, in Chiefs Nation. At least that's what many fans will be feeling.

San Diego has loomed as a divisional front-runner for years, with the whiny but talented Philip Rivers leading the way.  But this year, the Chargers have nothing particular to be confident about. Sandy Eggo started the season by losing to the Raiders, scoring 18 points against a team that's 26th in points allowed. The Bolts followed this up with their one and only solid offensive performance. They put up 38 against the Titans, who have given up the second most yards in the league and the most points, averaging 37.7 per game. Remember that shaky Chiefs offense from a few weeks back? They scored 24 points against the Falcons. The Chargers scored 3 points and lost by 24. While their mediocrity may stir up some feelings of hope yet again, the Chiefs have only proven that they need a 288 yard performance, 5 overturned challenges, 6 field goals and 8 and a half minutes of overtime to beat a struggling, decimated Saints team.

Before the game today, take a deep breath and enjoy that Saints game in your head for a minute. That was a fascinating, exciting moment. Sadly, it may have been the best moment of this Chiefs season. Here's to hoping I'm wrong. And to prove that I often am, here are my five predictions for today:

1: While the Chargers aren't the Chargers of Years Past, they're still better than the Chiefs of Right Now. Another strong outing from Houston and the rest of the defense keeps it close, but Rivers finds too many holes in the secondary for the Chiefs to survive. Bolts win, 23-19. Also, expect at least three moments where Rivers bitches at a ref for no reason, and at least two moments when he quite visually calls out a teammate. What a big baby.

2: As I mentioned, giving Jamaal the ball in Priest Holmes-like proportions is bad news, and Daboll is (hopefully) well-aware of this. Expect Jamaal to have his carries limited to around 20 or 25. And he'll still finish the day with triple-digit yardage.

3. Kansas City relied heavily on Jamaal, not just later in the game when he went bonkers, but right out the gates on the opening drive. He helped move the ball into field goal range, where Succop landed his first of six field goals. This broke a league-leading 19 game streak of failing to score on the opening drive. Look for Daboll to finally come out with a good plan for a game-opening drive, allowing the Chiefs to start a new streak. No touchdown, though, just a field goal. Baby steps, damn it.

4. The Chiefs will want to keep the clock running today, in order to keep the defense fresh. With a run-happy, time-managing offense like this, they will do so successfully. Expect the Chiefs to have at least 8 more minutes' time of possession.

5. Here's a weird one: Dustin Colquitt shanked a punt last week, a really ugly one that rolled off his foot for 24 yards. Colquitt, being a punter, isn't talked about too much, but he really has been one of the most consistent performers on the team in recent years. Expect 24 yards to be his season low.

For more Chiefs info, check in later this week. Maybe I’ll write a whole article about punters! (I won’t).  

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