Saturday, September 15, 2012


As we look ahead to this Sunday's game in Buffalo, ask yourself this: what would a win against the Bills tell us about this Chiefs team? Obviously, getting the W is what's most important, but how we win could be very telling of how this year's team will match up with later, tougher opponents. And, if we don't win, we'll have a lot more discomforting questions to answer.

This early in the season, fully understanding a team's identity is next to impossible. Last year, Buffalo went 6-10, with a middle-of-the-road offense and a defense that gave up the fifth-most rushing yards in the league. Only Tampa Bay and Minnesota gave up more points per game on the ground, and the passing D was similarly crappy. Actually, almost exactly as crappy; again, only The Vikings and Bucs gave up more passing yards. So with the Chiefs' arsenal of offensive skill-players, and with Jamaal going right back to being Jamaal (at least when the line holds up for, like, half a second,) Chiefs fans could easily get caught sitting back and licking our chops. The Bills' season opener against the Jets- a 48-28 blowout in New York- does little to slow the salivation.

So we can be somewhat confident on the offensive side of the ball, much to the chagrin of the organization that fired Chan Gailey. Though if you saw any five minutes of that Falcons game, you know damn well Romeo isn't losing any sleep worrying about the offense; it's the defense that garners most of the negative criticism lately, and rightfully so. Atlanta scored on their first eight possessions last Sunday. Falcons coach Mike Smith told reporters after the game that it "might be the best game" QB Matt Ryan has ever played. Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez- three guys the defense should have been gameplanning for all week- caught at least five passes each. There's plenty of ugly stats to go along with that game. I could go on. The only stat that matters, though, is 40 points. In last year's regular season, a team allowed 40 points or more 25 times, and only one of those teams came out with a victory. The Chiefs haven't scored 40 points in a game since week 7 of 2010.

While Ryan Fitzpatrick won't scare secondaries like Matt Ryan will for the next decade, he's no slouch, either. He did throw for 3 TDs against a Jets defense that ranked fifth last year in passing, and could've had more if not for throwing three picks. CJ Spiller, the second-stringer filling in for an injured Fred Jackson, ran for 169 yards. Stevie Johnson is only going to get better, and if he's double-teamed by the hopefully-healthy Brandon Flowers and a safety, it leaves the field wide open for 7-year vets Ruvell Martin and Brad Smith. Fitzpatrick targeted Bills not named Johnson for 14 passes last week against the Jets, so shutting him down isn't enough to ensure a win.

The more you look at it, this could be a close game. Apparently, this is supposed to be a much-improved Bills defense, strengthened by the hefty acquisition of Mario Williams, as well as another defensive end. The Bills hoped to improve their secondary as well by drafting CB Stephon Gilmore tenth overall. Those pickups didn't stop Mark Sanchez from scoring 48 on Buffalo last week, but one game cannot prove what this young and talented defense will look like next Sunday.

So, if we stuff the run and put up 40 points, we can have some hope for the Sunday after this, when we play the Saints in New Orleans. But will we really be confident in stopping that high-powered offense? The Bills could play their best game on both sides of the ball and still be nothing compared to what we'll face in week 3.

If we lose a heart-breaker, will you have lost all faith in Romeo Crennel and his defense? Would you really have no hope for Justin Houston? Would you scoff at Derrick Johnson, or deny all of Eric Berry's talent? No way, man.

I guess my point is, no matter what happens this Sunday, the season is far from over, and this team's identity will not be set in stone. Beating the Bills by 30 points would feel great, but beating Buffalo is not like beating the Saints. There would still be plenty of questions about the defense if the score's 38-35, and just as many about the offense if we won 13-3. Losing a game like this, on a schedule like this, would be bad news- it goes without saying. But, to think a loss here equates to an entire season of failure would be going a bit overboard. The Hunts trust that Romeo is building a foundation for a long-lasting, powerful, studly defense. That means Chiefs fans have no choice but to trust him, too. This Sunday, we'll get some clues as to whether or not that foundation was finished in time for the 2012 season, or if it's still under construction.

The franchise has also fully commited to Matt Cassel and his ability to manage the game. Turnovers are crucial, and the Chiefs know this. In an effort to make an unpredictable game less-so, Scott Pioli has given Cassel the keys and built an impressive-looking offense around him and his skill-set. However successful Cassel is at protecting the ball, Sunday's game still looks to be hard to predict. Nonetheless, I have five predictions for this upcoming Sunday. Call me crazy.


Five Predictions for Sunday-

1. Buffalo and Kansas City had oddly similar starts to their seasons last week. Both teams lost in blowouts that could have been competitive if not for a -3 turnover ratio. This week, the Chiefs D revels in having their blitz game back, and pressure from Tamba and Houston will force some turnovers. Cassel holds his poise better than  Fitzpatrick, and his efforts to keep the ball safe and manage the game pay off. Kansas City wins the all-important turnover battle, and the Chiefs win an ugly one, 26-24. A key turnover will make all the difference. Expect the offense to look erratic, almost bipolar. Much like last game, this system built around Cassel will make you grin with smug confidence through one set of downs, then make you shout obscenities and scratch your head through the next. Expect the defense not to suck (fingers crossed.)

2. Tamba forces pressure all day, but the Bills plan for it. So on the other side of the D, Justin Houston breaks loose and gets at least two sacks and several hits on the quarterback.

3.  Fitzpatrick is known to get a little wobbly after a few good knocks. If the defense gets pressure on him, expect at least two interceptions. And like I said, they'll be crucial.

4. McCluster was Cassel's favorite target, last week and throughout the preseason. Look for #22 to make two or three third down conversions that make everyone remember how much ass he kicks.

5. Javier Arenas starts another pointless slap-fight, after returning a punt for 2 yards. Book it.

1 comment:

  1. So about those more discomforting questions to answer...

    ReplyDelete