Chiefs Might Make Big Splash by Trading Up - But Should They?

Multiples sources have now projected the Kansas City Chiefs to trade up to get Arvell Reese tonight in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft. Several teams with a pick ahead of KC's first at #9 overall would presumably choose Reese, so KC would need to offer a trade package including the #9 and #29 picks and maybe more to get in the right spot. Reese is a versatile, explosive 6'4 edge rusher who many analysts compare to Micah Parsons. His floor, according to analysts, is starting impact edge rusher, and his ceiling is consistent candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. So, how likely is it that we see the Chiefs trade up for this generational talent, and would it be the right move?

I think it's highly possible based on how Chiefs general manager Brett Veach typically uses the NFL draft. Veach wants to make a can't-miss choice at a premium position with what everyone cheering for the Chiefs hopes is the highest draft position of the Patrick Mahomes era. Adding talent to the secondary, the pass rush and the wide receiver room are the Chiefs' biggest priorities right now, and Veach loves turning later-round picks into safeties and cornerbacks that develop into legit starters in the NFL. When the team has numerous other positions of need, it makes sense to utilize this strength and spend that valuable draft pick elsewhere. Also, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is considered the most can't-miss secondary prospect in this year's draft, and spending a top-ten draft pick on one of the league's lowest-paid positions when there are other issues to address would seem unwise.

Rushing the passer is one of those issues, and after stud pass rusher David Bailey goes as many expected at the #2 spot to the New York Jets (or only slightly later if those reported indications were false), the next EDGE off the board is expected to be Rueben Bain Jr. Despite a strong pedigree in nearly every other facet of the game, his historically short arms have become a hotly contested talking point across the internet's vast and sometimes silly landscape. Problem or not, it could be enough to make Veach and his staff lean away from Bain Jr. at the #9 spot of this draft. Wide receiver is another position where the Chiefs need help, and Jordyn Tyson is expected to be within range of the ninth overall pick. A combination of injury concerns and a high volume of high-ceiling receivers in the latter end of the first round could make the Chiefs hesitant about picking Tyson so early.

Potential flaws in the philosophy of drafting practically anyone at #9 lends credence to the idea of trading up for Reese. Veach has done more research and pondered every what-if far more deeply than I've done here, so he knows every risk with every player they could potentially choose at #9. If I can think up a viable reason for why not to draft each of the guys they could target in that spot, Veach has already thoroughly done the same. Other teams and scenarios may stop the Chiefs for trading up for Reese, and if they do, I can see Kansas City trading down to get more draft capital out of more desperate teams. However, if the opportunity presents itself, I'd love to see the Chiefs be bold and trade up for Reese in order to add genuine greatness to their defense for years and years to come.

Bringing Back Bienemy - Was It Wise?

Changes came quickly after the Kansas City Chiefs finished their season with a 6-11 record and a noticeable decline in productivity by the offense. Former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy parted ways with the team, and KC reunited with other former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. I already looked at Nagy and Bieniemy's relative effects on the Chiefs' offenses throughout the years just weeks ago. Now, Bieniemy is back, but where has he been, and what does it mean for the Chiefs' future?

Chiefs Kingdom wasn't alone in noticing Eric Bieniemy's success as the OC under Andy Reid from 2018-2022. It led to Eric taking a job as assistant head coach and offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders. While there, he and head coach Ron Rivera were unable to get a Sam Howell-led offense over the hump despite marginal statistical improvement. Washington let both coaches go after a single season, and Bieniemy took a job - again as the assistant head coach and offensive coordinator - with the UCLA Bruins. This was his first return of sorts, as his success with UCLA as their running backs coach from '01-'05 preceded his first NFL coaching job.

Bieniemy's brief stint in UCLA went poorly, and in '25 he joined the Chicago Bears as the running backs coach. Here, he found his stride again and helped Chicago become the third-most-productive rushing attack in football. Bieniemy excelled this season at helping first-year head coach Ben Johnson maximize productivity from Bears running backs D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. As told by Ron Kopp Jr. over at Arrowhead Pride, 7th-round pick Monangai's 783 rushing yards would've led KC in rushing over either of the last two seasons despite the rookie being second on his own team this year. Recreating this success in Kansas City could be key to getting this Chiefs dynasty back on track.

Both of KC's leading rushers from last season are unrestricted free agents. Bieniemy just led the Bears' latest 7th-round draft pick to be more productive than any Chiefs running back since 2023. KC will also be drafting ninth overall - their earliest draft pick since picking first overall in 2013. Mel Kiper Jr. likes KC drafting Notre Dame's stud running back Jeremiyah Love with that pick. Many mock drafts have him landing right around that #9 spot. With or without spending that huge draft pick on a running back, I'm predicting that Bieniemy's return makes a big, positive difference for the Chiefs' future.

It's possible that Monangai and Ben Johnson are just a great combo that helped Bieniemy look good in his role in Chicago. However, Chiefs Kingdom lived through the jarring and obvious influence Eric makes. To finish in the top six in the NFL in points and yards per game in each of his five seasons as the offensive coordinator is no accident. I'd be scared about drafting virtually any running back in the top ten, so I'd prefer to see Bieniemy find his next Monangai later in the draft. He's clearly proven that as a trustworthy strategy. Either way, Chiefs Kingdom will remember Eric's return as a big step in the right direction.

How Third Down Doomed KC in 2025

I didn't think 6-11 was on the board for the Kansas City Chiefs this year. What went wrong? Actually, a quick look through the season stats indicates that they kinda got worse at everything. In the regular season prior to the one that just concluded, KC had an average offense and a really good, possibly great, defense. The 2024 Chiefs also had a +6 turnover differential. In 2025, the Chiefs defense was diminished but still strong, their turnover differential dropped to -1, and flaws on offense ultimately prevented them from achieving sustained success.

The Chiefs defense finished 10th in yards allowed per game and 6th in points, after ranking 9th in yards and 4th in points last year. They stayed strong despite finishing 2025 with the fourth-fewest sacks of any team in the league. Kansas City also allowed the fourth-highest third down conversion rate in the NFL. They struggled with this in 2024 also, however, so none of this can be the primary reason for coming short this season. The sad truth revolves around the regression of KC's offense.

Over their three straight seasons of reaching the Super Bowl, the Chiefs ranked third, sixth and second in the league in third down conversion. This season, they ranked 22nd. This helped turn an offense that ranked 16th and 15th in yards and points per game in '24 into the offense that finished 2025 at 20th and 21st in yards and points. Ranking 22nd or lower in both third downs converted and opponent's third downs converted is a lack of success experienced only by the Chiefs and two other teams this season.

Fans could feel it when they watched this season, too. It was a gut-punch every time the team looked good for lengthy periods of time, only to make it all futile by allowing a long third down conversion or failing to convert a dang 3rd and 2. If change is what the Chiefs offense needs, that's good, because change is coming. Former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is not expected to return, and the rumor mill about his replacement is already in full gear. That means I'll be returning when we get more news to share my thoughts on it all while the playoffs go on without us. Enjoy it all Chiefs Kingdom, and I'll be back soon.

Chiefs' Stinker Season Reaches Clunky Conclusion

One of the most disappointing seasons in Kansas City Chiefs history comes to a fittingly dreary conclusion today when the Chiefs face the hapless Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are already locked into their worst record since 2012, when Romeo Crennel and Matt Cassel led the way to a 2-14 season. Watching Patrick Mahomes writhing around and clutching his knee in that Colts game will unfortunately live with me forever. Even with Mahomes on the field, Kansas City simply wasn't a playoff-caliber team in 2025. After ten straight seasons with at least ten wins, I'm now hoping for KC to lose their last game on the schedule just to improve their draft position.

How did it all go so wrong? Winning a Super Bowl and losing the next one may have altered the perception of this offense, but it hasn't been good for three seasons. KC ranked 15th or lower in points scored per game each of the last three seasons after six straight seasons in the top six. What was the difference? Eric Bienemy left, and Matt Nagy took over as offensive coordinator. 

I spent three seasons wondering what the problem was and when we would be elite again, thinking that the return of injured or suspended players on offense would spark the resurgence of this once-great offense. Meanwhile, Bienemy just found his groove leading the running backs room for the Chicago Bears. The Bears rank 3rd in yards per game and ninth in points per game this season. While he's due for a promotion of some sort, or at least a ton of positive recognition, Matt Nagy seems destined for departure of the state of Missouri - much like the Chiefs themselves. I'm predicting a 23-17 defeat at the hands of the lowly Raiders today, assuming that the Raiders are so dismal that they cannot succeed in failing when failure is their most beneficial outcome. Enjoy this week of football in whatever way suits you best, and I'll be back next weekend for one big wrap-up to this stinker of a season.

Will Denver Give Season's Beating to KC on Christmas?

I expected a Christmas night game between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs to be must-see TV. Now, I'm honestly more excited about watching basketball. In terms of sheer entertainment value, there's no contest between today's NBA action and today's Cowboys-Commanders game. I really don't understand how to ingest football as a fan of a non-competitive team, and I don't want to get used to it any time soon.
 
Since draft position is so vital to the future success of NFL franchises, fans of bad teams shouldn't even want victory in December. This leaves me and many other Chiefs fans in an odd mindset for tonight's game. Denver's fighting for the #1 seed in prime-time on Christmas. They have every reason to want this victory. The Chiefs have the rare and wonderful opportunity to draft near the top 10 for the first time since choosing the big-armed QB from Texas Tech that turned this team into a dynasty. This is a crazy statement, but it's also 100% true: the Chiefs' best-case scenario is to end their season with consecutive losses to the Broncos and Raiders.

It's hard to imagine the Chiefs scoring a bunch with their third-string quarterback against an elite Broncos defense still vying for top playoff seeding. KC's season average of 22.5 points per game ranks 20th in the league right now, but they averaged 22.6 last year, which was good for 15th in the league by the end of the regular season. Scoring in the NFL slows down in December, when the weather gets cold and defenses get more serious. I expect KC to struggle to score, while Denver coasts, so my holiday gift for you is a safe bet - go with the UNDER for total points at 47.5 for -430 on DraftKings. That means the Chiefs could lose 31-16 and still make you a little extra cash to burn on New Year's Eve.

I'm predicting a 24-10 defeat at the hands of Denver today. Remember that brighter days for the Chiefs are on the horizon, and remember that enjoying whatever we can with people who love football and love us is what really matters. Merry Christmas, happy holidays, and thanks for sticking with me here at The Report.

Chiefs Kingdom Should Embrace Failure Until 2026

Is this the lowest point in the Patrick Mahomes era of Kansas City Chiefs football? It certainly feels like it. The Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention, and the most important player in franchise history just blew out his knee. Positivity suddenly feels like a precious commodity in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'll try to help us see the silver linings.

Nine Chiefs were already ruled out for today's game against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville. All nine are real contributors that can use this week, and as many more as they want, to get themselves as healthy as possible for next season. Fans should feel the same way about anyone considered a healthy scratch between now and September. I hate that feeling of futility as much as the next Chiefs fan, but they have nothing to earn by winning until 2026.

One of those valuable Chiefs on the injury report is Trent McDuffie, who the Chiefs drafted 21st overall in 2022. That's the highest draft pick for the Chiefs since 2017, when they drafted a big-armed, reportedly unpolished quarterback from Texas Tech as the 10th overall pick. That means everybody the Chiefs drafted in the last ten seasons with a pick higher than 22nd is on pace to be a Hall of Famer. Another injection of talent like that could really stoke the flames in the furnace of this ongoing dynasty.

ESPN currently predicts the Chiefs' average draft position at 13.7. This gives KC the chance to draft someone who becomes a fundamental piece of the future. At the start of this month, PFF listed five different edge rushers in the top 17 of their projected draft. KC's defense struggled to pressure opposing QB's this year, while also allowing the fifth-highest conversion rate on third downs and giving up the seventh-most penalty yards to the opposition. I care way more about drafting the next great piece of the dynasty than I do about Gardner Minshew leading the Chiefs second-stringers to a win over the Titans. It feels weird to say that I hope KC loses, but I do, and I'm predicting a 20-13 defeat today.

Chiefs-Chargers Rivalry Renewed While KC Tries to Keep Hope Alive

Last week's miserable defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans resulted in yet another ugly stat line for the most important player in Kansas City Chiefs history. Patrick Mahomes finished that sad day with a 19.8 Passer Rating. He's gone two weeks now without a Rating reaching 30. This sent me searching through his career Ratings and QBR's for each season, and just a quick look feels revealing.

The first thing I noticed was just how little Passer Rating and QBR seem to agree. If you only trust Passer Rating, Mahomes has been a mediocre QB more years than not. That clearly means you should absolutely not do that. His current Rating for this season is 91.2, which ranks 16th in the NFL. That's below the standard he sets, but it's remarkably similar to last season's Rating of 93.5, which ranked 17th. He also ranked 14th in Rating in 2023 with a 92.6. 

That data alone would indicate the presence of a consistently mediocre signal-caller, but ESPN's QBR algorithm disagrees. Patrick's QBR ranks 4th in the league right now. He finished at 8th over the last two seasons. That brings us to 2022, when a new, disturbing pattern emerges.

Mahomes was awesome in 2022 and 2020, and every measurable agrees with that. 2021 showed yet more disparity between Rating and QBR, when Mahomes was 15th in Rating and 5th in QBR. That season, however, is the only time in this amazing stretch from 2018 to 2022 that Mahomes did not finish a season ranked top-seven in both categories. Most of this production came with freakishly athletic receiver Tyreek Hill on the team and Eric Bieniemy coordinating the offense. Mahomes' incredible 2022 campaign happened without Tyreek.

Bienemy is currently the running backs coach for the Chicago Bears. The Bears average 152.6 rushing yards a game this season. They have the most potent running game in their conference and perhaps in the league. What a perfect compliment to Patrick that would be. For now, though, the questions about next season stay on the back-burner as long as KC has hope for a playoff berth in 2025. That all depends on KC's ability to overcome one of the league's strongest defenses when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead today.

The Chargers defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed. They've tallied up more interceptions than any team aside from the Chicago Bears. The offense has been mostly average this season, thanks in part to numerous injuries to key parts of their offensive line, but they still rank 9th in rushing yards per game. Surprisingly, the highly talented Justin Herbert has the potential every week to be the team's biggest problem. He's even the reason I'm picking the Chiefs this week.

Despite having similar overall turnover differentials, with the Chargers at +1 and KC at -1, Herbert is the biggest liability L.A will have on the field today. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith have thrown more than Herbert's 11 interceptions this season. The Chargers have a few impressive pelts on the wall after beating the Chiefs in Week 1 in Brazil, Denver in Week 3 and Philly in overtime last week, but they also suffered some embarrassing losses. Defeats at the hands of the Giants and Commanders, and double-digit defeats when facing Jacksonville and Indy all included at least one Justin Herbert interception. I'm predicting at least one more pick from Herbert as KC keeps the embers of hope warm by beating the Chargers 22-19.

Will KC's Playoff Hopes Survive Tough Texans Test?

The Chiefs really bummed out the Kingdom by losing on Thanksgiving, but did it end their season? I can barely remember how it feels to be a fan of a team unlikely to reach the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are having a legendary run of three straight Super Bowl appearances and seven straight seasons hosting the AFC Championship game, but they currently sit at the #10 seed in their conference.Tonight's do-or-die fight at Arrowhead involves another team still alive in the AFC playoff hunt but currently on the outside looking in, and they're a match-up nightmare for the Chiefs.

Linemen Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor are listed on KC's injury report as doubtful for tonight's game. If Houston's offense can score a bunch today, the Chiefs' playoff hopes will die, because putting up 40 against this Texans defense isn't happening. Nobody allows fewer yards per game than the Texans this year. They pressure opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate, and they've tallied up the fourth-most takeaways in football. It's up to KC's defense to improve upon recent unimpressive performances to keep the dream alive tonight.

The Chiefs defense ranks 27th in sacks per game. They have the fourth-fewest takeaways in the NFL after ranking around league-average all last season. Their allowed third-down conversion rate ranks 26th. All these issues were evident when KC lost last week's Thanksgiving game against Dallas due a ton of penalties and numerous missteps from the defense on second-half third-downs. That will end their season if it happens tonight. A victory tonight brings the likeliness of KC reaching the playoffs back up to slightly above 50%.

Aside from playing us again, the Chargers have to play the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos. Indy has to play San Fran, Houston and two against Jacksonville. The Bills and Jags have easier paths, but still have work to do to ensure a better seed than Kansas City. Hope is still alive, and the roads to the playoffs are still numerous, as long as KC survives tonight's battle. I'm predicting a 23-20 victory for the Chiefs. To have no hope for the playoffs with over two weeks to go until Christmas would just feel wrong.

Chiefs Visit Jerry World for Tough Turkey Day Test

On this very special holiday, I'm reminded of everything that makes me thankful. I'm thankful for friends, for my family, for my wonderful pets, and I'm thankful the Chiefs didn't blow it last weekend and ruin their whole damn season. After KC survived that nailbiter on Sunday, the odds-makers now have the Chiefs as the third-likeliest team to win the Super Bowl and the betting favorite to win the AFC. That's one hell of an accomplishment for a team that seemed to be on the brink of missing the playoffs.

Andy Reid and his staff clearly thought highly of Indy's tandem of talented cornerbacks in former Chief Charvarius Ward and recently acquired Sauce Gardner. KC's offense approached that game with their most rush-heavy gameplan in several seasons. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 30 times while KC held the Colts' powerful offense to just 20 points. An even bigger surprise came from what running backs did not accomplish on Sunday, as KC held MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to under 60 rushing yards. That brings the Chiefs' average for rushing yards allowed per game down to 97.6. Every team with a lower average than KC is currently on pace to make the playoffs, aside from Houston, who is the currently the last team out and two spots ahead of the Chiefs.

Moving the ball on the ground successfully was especially important for KC last Sunday when Patrick Mahomes continued his unusual slump. It's safe to say Mahomes still hasn't been his best. He missed on some potentially big plays downfield, his QBR didn't reach 70, and his Passer Rating didn't reach 80. That's three games in a row of Mahomes not reaching a Rating of 80, which he's only done once, and not since mid-season of 2021. Despite this rare multi-game slump, Mahomes is still putting up some big numbers. Actually, both teams meeting in Dallas today have QB's who could be considered the most productive in their conference.

Patrick and Prescott have the two highest averages for passing yardage in the NFL. ESPN's QBR stat ranks Dak first league-wide and Mahomes third. Passer Rating doesn't think either guy is even a top-six quarterback because Passer Rating is kinda dumb, but I'll focus on that some other time. Prescott is playing an elite level of football that's keeping Dallas alive far longer than the Vegas odds-makers and pro analysts predicted. The Cowboys rank first in yards per game and fourth in points with Prescott at the helm.

The defense is their obvious flaw. Dallas allows the fourth-most total yards and the second-most total points in the NFL. They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in passing yards, resulting in the fourth-most total yards allowed per game. Only the Bengals allow their opponents to score more points. Maybe Dallas has some newfound confidence after defeating the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, but that was the first win they've collected over a good football team. Their only other victories came when facing the Giants, Jets, Commanders and Raiders.

I don't expect KC to take their foot off the pedal any time soon, especially not in front of the whole country on Turkey Day. I also don't expect the best football player ever born to keep struggling like he has lately. When the weather gets cold and the games matter most, Mahomes delivers. I'm predicting a 29-24 victory for Kansas City. I hope you get to enjoy today with people who love football and love you. Have a happy Turkey Day.

Can KC's D Stuff Potential MVP JT?

The Kansas City Chiefs play the most important regular season game of the Mahomes-Reid Era today, and I'm afraid I'll keep saying that until a playoff berth is either secured or unobtainable. The 8-2 Indianapolis Colts are the AFC's biggest surprise and a genuine contender for the #1 seed. Their offense ranks first league-wide in points and yards per game. Their defense gets after the opposing quarterback and just added potentially elite talent to the secondary with a trade for Sauce Gardner. Indy started the season looking dangerous, but over the last two games, they've looked more like a danger to themselves. 

Daniel Jones deserves credit for redefining himself in Indianapolis. However, he may turn back into a pumpkin just in time for Thanksgiving. Last week, as the Colts nearly lost to the rudderless Atlanta Falcons, Jones threw a pick and fumbled the ball three times, losing one. The week before, Jones also fumbled three times, and he paired that with three picks as Indy lost to Pittsburgh. That's four interceptions and six fumbles in his last two times on the field. Patrick Mahomes clearly hasn't played his best ball lately, but he's not doing that.

So, if you're a Colts fan, you're not worried about that because you have Jonathan Taylor, right? I wouldn't be so confident. The Chiefs defense has already faced off with Saquon Barkley and four of the 11 most productive running backs in the league. KC faced Derrick Henry, Saquon, Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook III and never allowed a run of 18 yards or longer. Only Saquon has scored a rushing touchdown, and only Cook III has reached 90 yards rushing.

Water must find its level today. Losing to Denver last week was one of the most disappointing regular season defeats in my lifetime, but this team didn't become a dynasty by wilting after disappointing defeats. Many memories have been made by Chiefs teams with their backs against the wall. We've set the stage for some high-stakes drama, and that's when this team typically plays its best. I'm predicting a perception-altering 29-23 victory for the Chiefs.

Can Motivated Mahomes Outmatch Dominant Denver Defense?

One of their most important regular season games in years awaits the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs this afternoon. Without a win today, KC will almost certainly fail to win their division. This would force them to play road games in the playoffs. It would also force fans like us to consider the possibility that the Chiefs don't make the playoffs at all, which would make for an unprecedented low-point in the Mahomes-Reid era. To dismiss all these concerns today, the Chiefs must find a way to score against a defense that's on pace to be one of the all-time greats.

The 8-2 Denver Broncos' dominant defense is the reason they're leading the AFC West. The Chiefs aren't too far behind in many important categories, though. KC ranks sixth in total yardage allowed per game, and Denver ranks third. The Broncos also rank third in points allowed per game, but the Chiefs are right behind in fourth place league-wide. The biggest difference comes in these teams' abilities to attack opposing quarterbacks.

Denver has 46 sacks, which is a total that only seven teams reached in the entire 2024 regular season and 14 more than any other team this season. Three different Broncos have at least six sacks. Nick Bonitto has 9.5 and a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. So, if the Chiefs are facing a divisional opponent with a Super Bowl-winning coach and a defense that's historically great on paper, why am I not worried?

Bo Nix is the reason. He's an objectively below-average QB at this point. ESPN's QBR thinks he's just normal-bad, while the Passer Rating algorithm thinks he's worse than Justin Fields. That Denver defense is incredible, and they're an eight-win team, and I still don't believe in them at all. I know they can only play the teams on their schedule, but the amount of duds on that schedule makes their record seem like a mirage.

Jalen Hurts' Eagles are the only good team with a good quarterback the Broncos have beaten so far. They played two early-season games against teams with quarterbacks considered good this season - Indy's Daniel Jones and the Chargers' Justin Herbert - and they lost both games. They held a potent Cowboys offense to 24 points and posted 44 on that awful defense in late October. Aside from these four games with capable QBs in which the Broncos went 2-2 and looked flawed, Denver has feasted on mediocrity.
 
They faced Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, Davis Mills (Stroud got hurt after 10 pass attempts) and Geno Smith. They beat the Jets, Giants, Texans and Raiders by nine points combined. The've played more teams that are currently in last place than teams that currently have winning records. That victory over Philly is Denver's only victory against a winning football team.

In a must-win moment, trusting Patrick Mahomes is my nature. Trusting Bo Nix more in that kind of moment is incomprehensible. It may be ugly, it may not impress all the Chiefs' critics, but the Chiefs aren't losing a game this important against a team so accustomed to facing inferior competition. I'm picking the Chiefs to win a tense 20-17 battle.

Brief Bye Week Breakdown of KC's Team Stats

The bye week has arrived, and it came right around mid-season this year, so now is the perfect time to check out the big-picture stats for our 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs. The numbers indicate big, positive changes for KC this season without many steps backwards. Credit, as always, goes to Brett Veach for putting the Chiefs in a position to succeed every year. Patrick Mahomes also makes winning easier, as we all know, and his numbers at this point make him a strong early bet for MVP. The only guy more likely to earn that award, according to DraftKings, is the guy who beat him 28-21 last week.

Through the 2024 reguar season, seven quarterbacks with at least 15 starts averaged more passing yards per game than Patrick Mahomes. Only three QB's with more than two starts this season average more than him now. He threw the ninth-most touchdowns last regular season. His 17 touchdown passes through nine games of this season has only been surpassed by three guys. It's also worth noting that Mahomes compiled 2/3rds of this without Rashee Rice, who just missed six games to suspension.

This improvement must have something to do with the Chiefs' improved ability to protect their aforementioned face of the franchise. KC ranked 19th in QB sacked percentage in 2024, meaning they allowed Mahomes to be sacked more often than average last season. This season, that percentage has dropped to just 5.11%, which ranks ninth league-wide. On the opposite side, the Chiefs sack the opposing QB 7.43% of the time, which is good for 14th right now. That's very similar to last year's percentage in the regular season, when they ranked 15th. 

The overall stats for KC suggest the strong defense has remained strong and the offense has significantly improved. The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL in yards per game this season and ninth in points per game. Last year, they finished the regular season 17th in yards per game and 15th in points. They're allowing the seventh-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points after allowing the ninth-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points last season. Remember when former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton played that never-changing, bland defense for years and limited the potential greatness of this era of Chiefs football? Neither do I.

Spags Stuffing Buffalo's Run-Game Can Keep KC's #1 Seed Hopes Healthy

Patrick Mahomes is so damn great that he constantly overshadows how good Josh Allen is, and I think that will continue this afternoon at Orchard Park. Their 2025 output looks remarkably similar. Allen's completion percentage is exactly one point higher than Patrick's. His average for yards per pass attempt is 0.5 yards higher, and his Passer Rating is 0.5 points higher. Both elite QB's have thrown four picks and been sacked 14 times for 85 yards lost. While both these future Hall of Famers feasted on bad defenses in weeks prior, they both face elite pass defenses this afternoon.

The Bills rank second league-wide in passing yards allowed per game, and the Chiefs rank third. Every AFC team that always has Mahomes standing between them and a Super Bowl appearance needs to focus on making their secondaries solid, and it seems Buffalo has done that this season. The strength of the Bills' secondary paired with the Buffalo defense ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game could result in the Chiefs running the ball more often and with more success. KC isn't as bad at anything as Buffalo is at stopping the run, but the Chiefs defense also isn't great at slowing down great running backs. While KC's defense ranks fourth overall in yards allowed per game, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game. James Cook III is second only to Jonathan Taylor in total rushing yards, and as ESPN's preview of the game pointed out, the Bills are undefeated when he either reaches 100 rushing yards or scores.

How Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo chooses to counter this and how the defense implements his decisions will decide the winner today. Cook III averages only 28.7 rushing yards per game over his career against the Chiefs, but he also averages 3.3 receptions for 30 yards per game. Consider that a small sample size, though, because Cook III will face KC for only the fourth time in his fourth pro season today. Last time he saw KC's defense was in the Arrowhead Invitational, known in some parts as the AFC Championship, when he finished with 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and 49 receiving yards. KC managed to win that game thanks to an 11-point fourth quarter, but allowing 29 to any team is concerning.

Both of these top-shelf teams need this win to keep their hopes for the #1 seed in the AFC healthy. Mahomes typically succeeds when it matters most, and this is the most important game he'll be a part of until the start of the playoffs. This largely untested Bills team is hungry, but they looked far-from-perfect when they lost to New England and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks. Despite the Chiefs facing perhaps their toughest test of the regular season today, I knew all week who I would pick to win this important face-off. I'm taking the Chiefs in a hard-fought 26-24 battle.

KC Confident, Washington Worried After Jayden Daniels Injury Update

The 3-4 Washington Commanders are a tricky team to judge based on their long list of injuries throughout this season. Now, instead of the Kansas City Chiefs facing off with last year's Rookie of the Year, another serious Commanders injury means that Marcus Mariota will start for Washington this Monday. The spread on Draft Kings right now is at 12.5, which is even more evidence that we may see back-to-back stinkers from the Chiefs' opposition. As fans in Washington already wonder what could have been after only seven games, the 4-3 Chiefs are back in pole position for another Super Bowl. 

An 0-2 start to the season almost seems like a distant memory now that KC is the betting favorite to win it all at +500. Patrick Mahomes' odds to win MVP are now at just +125. Josh Allen is the only other guy with odds better than +700 now. There are plenty of reasons to agree with these predictions from the odds-makers. KC's franchise-altering QB has put up elite passer numbers this season, and a lot of that came without his top two receivers.

Mahomes ranks fourth in passing yards and is tied for fourth in touchdowns while throwing only two picks. Only Matthew Stafford has thrown two or fewer interceptions while throwing for as many yards. KC is +250 to win the AFC, with Buffalo at +370 and the Colts at +450. To gain that much confidence from the odds-makers after such a tough start to the season is impressive. It's even more impressive when considering that ESPN ranked Buffalo and Indy's strengths of schedule 23rd and 25th respectively, while the Chiefs ranked 11th.

While these stats may be more interesting than a middling, injured Commanders team, Mahomes won't allow his guys to lose focus on the game ahead of him like I've done today. It will ultimately be him and his now-robust receiver core making the biggest difference in this game, putting aside the injury to Washington's talented franchise QB. The Commanders allow the 12th-most points per game in the league, thanks largely to allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game. That would make overcoming a fully operational Chiefs offense tough even if Washington had a healthy Jayden Daniels. I'm predicting a 31-13 victory for Kansas City.

Old Narratives Regarding Raiders Rivalry Repeat

The narratives about this rivalry feel boring, but maybe that's because the Las Vegas Raiders being awful keeps the narrative the same. Most of the stats don't suggest they should be awful. The presumed upgrades at head coach and quarterback should definitely make them less awful. Still, there they are at 2-4 with a -48 point differential. They just beat the woeful Tennessee Titans last week, which is their first and only win since beating the New England Patriots 20-13 in Week 1.

Does all this make today's game one of the notorious "trap games" on the Chiefs schedule? I think it does, but just enough to ensure that KC did not take things lightly this week. I also think the psychological side of the game matters more when both teams are objectively good. While the Chiefs are finally bringing together the imposing receiver trio of Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, the Raiders are struggling to move the ball without constantly giving it to their opponent. Only three teams in the NFL have a turnover differential worse than Las Vegas' -4.

The idea that this is the time when KC may let off the gas and potentially lose a stinker also makes this game the perfect time for KC to make a point by dominating a divisional rival. The Raiders continue to be less than the sum of their parts, and the stats back that up consistently. Despite ranking 11th league-wide in total yards allowed, they rank 23rd in points allowed. Despite upgrading at quarterback and drafting a prodigious running back in the first round, only the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans have scored fewer points per game. I know 12.5 points is a big, big spread, but I think it's getting worse than that. I'm predicting a 37-17 victory for Kansas City.

KC Hosts Dominant Detroit Offense After Disappointing Defeat

Week 6 of the NFL season is underway, and the Kansas City Chiefs' true identity is still a mystery. Despite starting 2-3 with a quarterback that ranks 19th in Passer Rating, I still believe this is a Super Bowl-caliber team led by the greatest football player ever born. The Vegas odds-makers seem to echo my sentiment so far, because despite their losing record, KC still has the fourth-best odds to win it all this year. Today's opposition, the 4-1 Detroit Lions, are betting favorites to win the NFC.

The Detroit Lions' success stems from their offense averaging 2.2 more points per game than any other team in football this season. They've scored at least 34 in their last four games. Three of the defenses they battered - Chicago, Cincy and Baltimore - all rank in the bottom-six in yards and points allowed this season. They also put up 34 on a tough Browns defense during that stretch, which is impressive. KC ranks 13th in both points and yards allowed this season, so tonight will be the closest Detroit has come to facing an average NFL defense. If that translates into the Lions scoring their average amount of points tonight, the Chiefs can't win without Patrick Mahomes looking great.

To be honest, if Detroit scores more than their season average of 35, the Chiefs will lose tonight. KC hasn't scored 35 or more since September of 2023, typically because they don't need to score that much to win. KC looks completely different on offense when Xavier Worthy is healthy, but the Chiefs still cannot expect to win this game 41-38. They need Steve Spagnuolo's defense not to totally stuff Detroit's prolific offense, but to just slow it down a little. Basically, Spags will coach this game like he's coaching against prime Steph Curry in the playoffs - you don't have to limit him to 10 points, just don't let him go off for 50.

A team leading the league in points scored makes me picture a team that's throwing the ball all the time, but the Lions have the third-lowest passing play percentage in the NFL. Dan Campbell's style revolves around Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who both carried the ball over 60 times for over 300 yards this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown still averages 8.2 targets per game this season, but the perpetually underrated Trent McDuffie should limit him like he limits every other #1 receiver in football. Today's game will come down to KC's ability to slow down that prolific Lions rushing offense and Mahomes' ability to exploit the weak points of Detroit's banged-up secondary. The Lions are down two defensive backs and a linebacker because of injuries, so they could struggle more than usual to stop Mahomes and KC's passing attack.

I believe the Chiefs will win today, but I admit that my reasoning in this particular instance is based more on history than on current events. I know these Chiefs are currently a losing team with some unanswered questions. I won't be shocked or incredibly disheartened if this strong Lions team beats KC tonight. I also know that Mahomes losing a game after a disappointing defeat happens very rarely. In the seven prior seasons of Mahomes as full-time starter, the Chiefs have lost consecutive regular season games four times. I'm predicting a 30-27 victory for the Chiefs.

KC's Offense Shows Growth While Trevor's Turnovers Terrorize Jags

     Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense experienced their most success of the season in their Week 4 victory over the currently crestfallen Baltimore Ravens. As his offense dropped 37 on Baltimore, Mahomes posted a Passer Rating of 124.8, which was 35 points better than his Ratings from any other game this season. It's his highest Passer Rating since Christmas. This brings his Passer Rating for the season up to 19th in the league, which may not sound great, but it's miles better than what we've seen from the signal-caller facing off with KC tonight. Jacksonville Jaguars franchise QB Trevor Lawrence ranks behind guys like Bryce Young, Geno Smith and the recently benched Russell Wilson at 30th place in Passer Rating this season.

    Only Geno, Joe Flacco and Jake Browning have thrown more interceptions than Lawrence so far. Trevor avoided a pick last week, but he's thrown at least one in three of his four games this season. Going back to last season, he's thrown at least one in nine of his last 11 games. Despite this, the Jags have a healthy 3-1 record and the league's best turnover differential at +9. That's two better than the second-place Pittsburgh Steelers and six better than the 8th-ranked Chiefs.

    The simple ability to play a clean game at quarterback defines entire eras for football franchises. Current evidence of this is easy to find. Before Week 5 began, Mahomes was one of only six QBs in the league who played all four games and only threw one interception. The only guy to do so without throwing any picks? Defending Super Bowl champ Jalen Hurts.

    While Trevor has a long history with turnover issues, the era of Jacksonville having an excellent turnover ratio is quite short; just last year, they finished the regular season with the fourth-worst turnover differential in the NFL. The Jags defense ranks fourth in points allowed this season, giving up just 18 points per game, so it won't be a cakewalk for KC's improving, evolving offense tonight. The Jags' defense looks strong, but it's only allowing one point fewer than KC's defense. It's also worth noting that the Jags have faced the Cincinnati Bengals when Jake Browning took most of the snaps for an injured Joe Burrow, a depleted San Francisco 49ers offense still led by a hobbling Brock Purdy, a struggling Houston Texans offense and the forever-struggling Carolina Panthers.

    Jacksonville lost that game to Browning's Bengals, by the way. I'm not calling the Jags fugazi, but, like, c'mon. While Trevor struggled against some average-at-best competition, the Chiefs faced three teams with Super Bowl aspirations and the New York Giants. Not every 2-2 team is inherently worse than every 3-1 team. I'm predicting a relatively comfortable 27-17 victory for KC.

Third-Down Improvements Key to KC Beating Baltimore, Retaining Super Bowl Hopes

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with their third elite opponent in four weeks when they meet the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead this afternoon. Now that the New York Giants brought some balance to the level of competition KC has faced, we can put more weight in the team stats accumulated so far. It's fair to think that only three games is still a small sample size, but 12 quarters is at least a good starting point for statistical analysis. I'm focusing mainly on offense and defense today, but kudos to Matt Araiza for ranking fourth league-wide so far in net punt yard average. Perhaps we'll look more closely at contributions from him and Harrison Butker when we're deeper into the regular season and there's more data to analyze.

KC's defense seems to be making strides more quickly than expected. The Chiefs rank between ninth and 11th in allowed total yards, passing yards, points per game and third-down conversion rate. That's great value for a team who is, according to Spotrac, right at league-average in spending on defense. The young talent in KC's secondary helped limit Giants' #1 receiver Malik Nabers to just two catches on seven targets for 13 yards last Sunday. Success against a receiver as good as Nabers feels huge for a Chiefs defense that will face off with guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin and Baltimore's Zay Flowers.

While KC's defense is over-performing, the Chiefs offense is leaving many football fans around the world scratching their heads. KC's offense ranges from 15th to 18th in rushing yards, passing yards and total yards per game. Those are all disappointing numbers to behold for a Chiefs fan, but KC's third-down conversion rate is a far more alarming change. KC's offense is currently tied for 14th in third-down conversion rate. In their seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a full-time starter, the Chiefs have never ranked below sixth in this category.

It's too early to be too worried about this, but the concern will grow rapidly with each week that things don't improve. Whether it's Travis Kelce looking more like his peak self or the return of KC's missing top two receivers, something needs to change to keep confident about the Chiefs' chances going forward. Clutch third-down conversions are a pillar of this dynasty's foundation. "Mahomes Magic" is a commonly used phrase in this city for a reason. Those seven seasons of Kelce and Mahomes (and Andy Reid's play-calling) dominating the league are more than enough evidence for me to predict a positive change for the Chiefs offense on third down going forward.

While the average 2025 game for KC is a 20-19 victory based on their averages for points scored and allowed, Baltimore is averaging a 37-32 victory. Lamar Jackson's long history of struggling against Mahomes and the Chiefs is the factor that gives KC the edge in this one. Lamar is 1-4 in his five chances to beat Mahomes, and Patrick has thrown for 747 more yards. I wouldn't be shocked if Baltimore wins today, but I'm still predicting a gutsy 26-23 victory for the Chiefs.

How KC Will Avoid Misery at MetLife

The way we think about this era of Kansas City Chiefs football could fundamentally change tonight. Winning against the 0-2 New York Giants on the road puts us all on the path back to normalcy, back to how we usually feel about this team. Losing at MetLife Stadium tonight would bring us to the franchise's lowest ebb since Patrick Mahomes became an NFL starter. Is the golden era of Chiefs football coming to an end, or can the Chiefs keep the good times rolling? To keep the magic alive, KC must now find a way to apply pressure to their opponent.

According to the guys at PFF, the Chiefs have the third-worst pass rush rate in football. Making the opposition uncomfortable in the pocket pays dividends in the modern NFL, and the Chiefs can't do it. I don't want to focus on excuses, but facing off with two highly-regarded quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, not to mention the highly-regarded offensive lines that protect them, may have something to do with KC's struggles in this area. When the Giants faced off with a Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys defense, Russell Wilson finished the game with 450 passing yards and three touchdowns. Avoiding that kind of production is key to a Chiefs victory tonight, but Kansas City's defense will be missing a significant and pricey piece.

Chiefs defensive end Mike Danna will miss tonight's game due to a quad injury, so KC needs rookie Ashton Gillotte to step up. PFF graded both guys in the mid-50's so far this season, so perhaps the younger player with a higher ceiling could make the team better in the long-term. We'll see if Gillotte is ready to live up to the moment with his increased playing time tonight. Add him to the list of young Chiefs defenders that need to play well to keep this dynasty alive. It's nothing new to Steve Spagnuolo, and despite this concern about a lack of pass rush, Spags has still kept games close against two legit Super Bowl contenders this season.

Last week, Hurts finished with 101 passing yards and led his offense to score just 20 points. Even the great Saquon Barkley only ran for 88 yards. Herbert torched KC's young secondary in the Chiefs season opener, but Spags still put his defense in a spot where one stop on 3rd and 15 would have given Mahomes the ball back with a chance to nail a two-minute drive to win the game. This defense is not that far off from being good, despite being young. The ability to trust young talent like Gillotte, Chamarri Conner and others factors heavily into the sustainability of this dynasty. To trust the underpaid youth on the roster means everything to a championship-worthy franchise in any league with a salary cap.

That's also true for the Giants and their first-round draft pick Abdul Carter. He, along with Brian Burns and nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II, has the ability to wreck plays and ruin an opponent's game-plan. Andy Reid will need to win the chess match tonight by keeping these pieces out of dangerous positions, and I think he'll succeed just often enough for KC to get the win. The Chiefs shouldn't need 40 to beat the Giants like the Cowboys last week. The same Russ that put up a billion passing yards last week also failed to score a touchdown against the Washington Commanders in Week 1. The start of the season can be unpredictable and weird, but I'm predicting that our Chiefs begin to right the ship with a 27-20 victory tonight.

Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.