Third-Down Improvements Key to KC Beating Baltimore, Retaining Super Bowl Hopes

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with their third elite opponent in four weeks when they meet the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead this afternoon. Now that the New York Giants brought some balance to the level of competition KC has faced, we can put more weight in the team stats accumulated so far. It's fair to think that only three games is still a small sample size, but 12 quarters is at least a good starting point for statistical analysis. I'm focusing mainly on offense and defense today, but kudos to Matt Araiza for ranking fourth league-wide so far in net punt yard average. Perhaps we'll look more closely at contributions from him and Harrison Butker when we're deeper into the regular season and there's more data to analyze.

KC's defense seems to be making strides more quickly than expected. The Chiefs rank between ninth and 11th in allowed total yards, passing yards, points per game and third-down conversion rate. That's great value for a team who is, according to Spotrac, right at league-average in spending on defense. The young talent in KC's secondary helped limit Giants' #1 receiver Malik Nabers to just two catches on seven targets for 13 yards last Sunday. Success against a receiver as good as Nabers feels huge for a Chiefs defense that will face off with guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin and Baltimore's Zay Flowers.

While KC's defense is over-performing, the Chiefs offense is leaving many football fans around the world scratching their heads. KC's offense ranges from 15th to 18th in rushing yards, passing yards and total yards per game. Those are all disappointing numbers to behold for a Chiefs fan, but KC's third-down conversion rate is a far more alarming change. KC's offense is currently tied for 14th in third-down conversion rate. In their seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a full-time starter, the Chiefs have never ranked below sixth in this category.

It's too early to be too worried about this, but the concern will grow rapidly with each week that things don't improve. Whether it's Travis Kelce looking more like his peak self or the return of KC's missing top two receivers, something needs to change to keep confident about the Chiefs' chances going forward. Clutch third-down conversions are a pillar of this dynasty's foundation. "Mahomes Magic" is a commonly used phrase in this city for a reason. Those seven seasons of Kelce and Mahomes (and Andy Reid's play-calling) dominating the league are more than enough evidence for me to predict a positive change for the Chiefs offense on third down going forward.

While the average 2025 game for KC is a 20-19 victory based on their averages for points scored and allowed, Baltimore is averaging a 37-32 victory. Lamar Jackson's long history of struggling against Mahomes and the Chiefs is the factor that gives KC the edge in this one. Lamar is 1-4 in his five chances to beat Mahomes, and Patrick has thrown for 747 more yards. I wouldn't be shocked if Baltimore wins today, but I'm still predicting a gutsy 26-23 victory for the Chiefs.

Real Rivalry Renewed as Chiefs Face Bills in Buffalo

The 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs have already vanquished numerous so-called rivals this season, but today, the Chiefs finally face off with a team worthy of that label. Kansas City ended the Buffalo Bills' last season in the divisional round of the playoffs with a 27-24 victory at Arrowhead. The Bills have won the regular season meeting between these two AFC powerhouses in their last three chances, but KC has ended Buffalo's bid for a Super Bowl in three of their last four seasons. It's safe to say that all the ingredients for true beef are available in this star-studded afternoon matchup. While the Bills enter this game with the league's second-highest scoring margin and third-highest scoring offense, KC enters this game with some obvious and unresolved flaws.

The Chiefs kept their undefeated streak alive through serious adversity, and that won't change in Orchard Park today. KC has been walking a tightrope these last two weeks with an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a last-second blocked field goal to beat the Denver Broncos 16-14. The Chiefs' issues at left tackle are glaring and well-documented, and the absence of Harrison Butker, who's quickly becoming one of the most prolific kickers in NFL history, will be felt this afternoon. KC's turnover differential also holds them back from being the best version of themselves. While KC's turnover rate of -4 ties them for the league's 9th-worst, the Bills come into this game with a differential four better than any other team in football.

Those turnover numbers for Buffalo are remarkable in every way. The Bills rank fifth in interceptions and third in fumbles forced, totaling in the second-most takeaways in football. Josh Allen's offense has fumbled twice and thrown four picks, resulting in the league's fourth-fewest total giveaways. That means Allen is on pace to throw fewer than eight interceptions after three consecutive years of throwing at least 14. That improvement has changed the way fans and pundits league-wide view the Bills this season.

One thing that never changes is Patrick Mahomes' ability to be great when it matters most, despite his relatively pedestrian stats throughout the season. In the rare moments when he doesn't come through, the special teams and defense bail Mahomes out anyway - at least so far. I'm still predicting a Chiefs victory today because of Patrick's apparent inability to fail in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson has posted an insane 121.3 Passer Rating in his 80 fourth quarter pass attempts. He's the only QB who's played the majority of this season and compiled a higher Rating in the fourth quarter than Mahomes. That kind of consistent clutch performance is why I'm picking the Chiefs to overcome the Bills in a 24-23 thriller.

How Coaching Rookies Affects Revived Chiefs-Broncos Rivalvry

It's hard to tell if the Denver Broncos are legit this season. If they are, the Kansas City Chiefs may have their first real divisional rival in years. The Broncos are 5-4 with their freshly drafted quarterback Bo Nix, who gives those fans more hope than they've had in a decade. Denver also just lost by 31 points and allowed the football equivalent of a perfect game to be thrown by the opposing quarterback. The Broncos' defense looked awesome before last week's 41-10 stinker against Lamar Jackson's Ravens, and despite that, Denver still only has one win against a team with a record above 3-6.

The Broncos defense ranks sixth in passing yards and total yards allowed per game and third overall in points allowed per game. Their offense ranks in the bottom ten in each of those categories. Bo Nix's Week 7 performance against Carolina was the best of his early career, but last week against Baltimore - who allows the most passing yards per game and ninth-most points per game in the NFL - was easily his worst. It's not often you see a week-to-week difference in Passer Rating above 58 points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is apparently a quarterbacks guru, so Nix's response to this unpredictable two weeks of play will reflect Payton's effectiveness in what is supposedly his strong-suit. 

The undefeated Chiefs exhibit their weaknesses every time they take the field while still, ya know, winning all the time. The left tackle position in particular is worryingly inconsistent, which factors heavily into a Patrick Mahomes Passer Rating that ranks 18th league-wide. Whether it's Wanya Morris or rookie Kingsley Suamataia taking the lion's share of snaps at that spot today, every passing week Andy Reid gets to strategize his way around that flaw should further improve the KC offense. Despite being sacked four times last week, Mahomes had his first three-touchdown performance of the season and finished the game with his highest completion percentage of the season. The growth of future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins' role in the offense also looked like it made an immediately positive impact.

This game means the world to a Denver team that's hungry for a signature win. With the enviable burden of an undefeated record, the Chiefs also have immeasurable motivation entering today's game. Despite my far-too-consistent ramblings about Mahomes' statistical mediocrity this season, his numbers on third down, in the red zone and in the fourth quarter all point to a quarterback and a team that refuse to lose. I'll take the safe bet and predict that this won't change today against a Denver team that has proven its ability to lose to teams with flaws far more damaging that Kansas City's. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for our Chiefs - the defending and dominant rulers of the AFC West.

Mahomes Meets MVP in Monumental Playoff Moment

The ramifications of today's Ravens-Chiefs game will echo through the entire history of this sport. The best player of his generation with the best ever start to an NFL career goes on the road to face off with the soon-to-be-two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and his dominant #1 seed Ravens. I don't want to spend too much time regurgitating other people's takes and research, but much digital ink was spilled this week detailing the unprecedented nature of Patrick Mahomes' playoff track record. It's safe to say that the only man Mahomes is chasing in the history books signed a gazillion-dollar deal to provide commentary for Fox. While Mahomes fights to live up to the moniker of the greatest playoff quarterback ever, Lamar Jackson fights to shake off the narrative that he struggles most in the most important moments.

Baltimore enters this game as 3.5-point favorites at home, which looks fair when you see their season stats and impressive record. The Ravens not only defeated elite teams this season, but dominated them. The Texans, Browns, Lions, 49ers and Dolphins all lost to Baltimore by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore's defense allowed the fewest points per game while tallying up the most sacks and takeaways of any team in football - a feat that was an NFL first. This Ravens team has done everything necessary to be the best team in the league this season. How, then, can anyone predict that the Chiefs will defeat this daunting opponent?

To help answer that question, let's take a closer look at the playoff resumes of Mahomes and his elite contemporaries. After losing to KC last week, Josh Allen has compiled a 10-game postseason Passer Rating of exactly 100. He finished last week's Chiefs game with an 86.1. Lamar has compiled a 75.7 Passer Rating through 5 playoff games. For anyone scared of his impressive performance resulting in a 121.8 Passer Rating against the Texans last week, keep in mind that Josh Allen compiled a 121.9 facing the Steelers in the Wild Card round the week before he faced KC in the playoffs. Allen actually finished with a rating above 100 in three of the four games prior to Buffalo's divisional round face-off with the Chiefs.

Now, let's look at the ridiculous postseason resume for KC's star signal caller. Through 16 playoff games in his career, Patrick Mahomes has a 106.7 Passer Rating. In those 16 games, Mahomes has only finished one - that disastrous Tampa Super Bowl - with a passer rating below Lamar Jackson's average postseason Passer Rating. Jackson has only finished a single playoff game with a rating above Patrick's average playoff passer rating. That game was last week, against a Texans defense that ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed per regular season game. 12 teams also finished the regular season with more sacks than Houston, which is a serious strength for both the Ravens and Chiefs.

I mentioned before that Baltimore leads the league in sacks with 60, but the Chiefs allow the second-fewest QB sacks in the NFL. The Chiefs defense tallied up 57 sacks of their own this season - good for second-most in the league. Baltimore's ability to keep their star QB protected in the pocket hasn't been as consistent as KC's, however. The Ravens allow 2.4 QB sacks per game this season, which is exactly league-average and nearly a full sack per game more than KC's average. KC's success in pressuring opponents' quarterbacks have helped them overcome strong offenses time and time again this season.

Kansas City beat Tua's Miami Dolphins twice and allowed only 21 total points to them.  They beat Josh Allen and a surging Buffalo Bills team in the playoffs. They only allowed 14 points on offense to the Detroit lions in Week 1 without Chris Jones. Other name to fail to score more than 20 on KC includes Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. This may be more difficult than usual since underrated defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi is expected to miss Sunday's game, but Nnadi isn't the most important name on KC's injury report this week.

Offensive linemen avoiding injuries did wonders for Kansas City's ability to protect Mahomes this season. Unfortunately, the name of KC's First Team All-Pro left guard just popped up on that report. Joe Thuney won't be ready for Sunday, but the Chiefs have had success with Nick Allegretti as a trustworthy veteran replacement on the O-line. The collective power of the best coach, best quarterback and best tight end in the league should be enough to help KC compensate for that significant loss. Will it be enough to help the Chiefs move on to the Super Bowl?

In this fan's humble opinion, yes. I trust the greatest playoff quarterback of all time during big playoff moments. He's earned it. Baltimore is the best team KC will face this season, whether they win or lose today, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the best coach-quarterback tandem in the world. Mahomes is also playing with inarguably the best defense that KC's had since Patrick's debut. I'm predicting a classic overtime thriller and a 26-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I truly hope you enjoy this one with folks who love you and love football.

Baltimore Brings Big Injury Issues Into Week 2

The 0-1 Baltimore Ravens are dealing with a ridiculous number of season-threatening injuries, and former MVP Lamar Jackson really has his work cut out for him against the 1-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards took the lion's share of non-Lamar rushes for the Ravens last year, and they're on Baltimore's injured reserve list. This cultivates serious concern for the team that led football in rushing yards last season. Receivers Miles Boykin and Rashod Bateman are also on Baltimore's injured reserve list, while Marquise Brown and Devin Duvernay are both listed as questionoable for today's game after getting limited time in practice on Friday. That's not to mention a list of guys missing from the Ravens defense that includes edge rusher Derek Wolfe and old friend Marcus Peters. How will so many meaningful injuries affect Baltimore when they face Kansas City tonight, and how will the Chiefs take advantage?

Baltimore lost a thriller last Monday night to the Las Vegas Raiders. Another old friend Sammy Watkins and running back Ty'Son Williams helped Lamar keep the Baltimore offense moving, but the Ravens defense kept giving up big plays until it cost them the game. Vegas tight end Darren Waller looked particularly dominant against the Ravens last week, catching ten passes for 105 yards and a score. Luckily for Baltimore, the Chiefs are totally mediocre at the tight end position and have always lacked a real stand-out star. Jordy Fortson looks pretty good, I guess.

The Chiefs have concerns of their own to worry about, but it's difficult to get past Baltimore's current flaws following their loss to the Raiders and the aforementioned list of injury issues. I'm not so sure that Kansas City's potential weakness against a strong rushing attack will really doom them when they face off against a team that just let Derek Carr lob bombs to wide-open targets downfield when the game was on the line. Baltimore allowed Vegas to pile up 491 total yards on offense- the most allowed by any defense in Week 1.

Adjustments and improvements should be made to a well-coached Ravens D that ranked third league-wide in yards per attempt allowed last season. Still, if Derek Carr can throw for 435 yards on this Baltimore secondary, what's possible for Patrick? I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for the Chiefs, as Travis Kelce adds another great performance to his Hall of Fame resume and Lamar yet again looks great in defeat.

Patrick Poised for Productive Playoffs Despite Season-Ending Slump

Wild Card Weekend will give us hours of football goodness and determine who will face the defending Super Bowl champs next week. If the Buffalo Bills take care of business in the early game, the Kansas City Chiefs' potential opponents narrow down to Tennessee, Baltimore and Cleveland. A Cleveland Browns victory over Pittsburgh paired with a Buffalo Bills victory would seal Cleveland into a meeting with the reigning champs. Now that the Browns find themselves without their head coach this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3.5 points. So, if the Vegas favorites win in the AFC this week, our Chiefs will face a Baltimore Ravens team that looks seriously imposing right now.

Baltimore has led the league in regular season scoring margin averages two years straight. Tennessee truly is a legit playoff team capable of beating Baltimore, but the Ravens' recent success makes their advantage undeniable. The Tennessee Titans average over 19 more rushing yards per game than every team in the league except Baltimore, but Baltimore averages over 23 more yards on the ground than the Titans. Lamar Jackson represents a unique threat to any defense. While a dominant Derrick Henry performance could get rid of the Ravens before they become KC's concern, my money's on Lamar this week.

I believe the Ravens and Bills are Kansas City's biggest threats in the AFC. To reach another Super Bowl, KC may need to beat them both. It is important to remember that the Chiefs already beat both by two possessions in the regular season. Regardless of what happens throughout Wild Card Weekend, KC will enter their first game of 2021 as a significant favorite. However, Lamar looks excellent right now, and Patrick seemed to struggle at year's end.

Most football fans would agree that Patrick Mahomes underperformed in December. In those final four games of his regular season, Mahomes failed to post a triple-digit Passer Rating. He completed under 56% of his passes in both of his most recent performances, and he threw four interceptions in his last three games. All this may conjure up some stress in the hearts and minds of Chiefs fans everywhere, but Mahomes' mediocrity over this stretch is overstated.

Look back at the conference in early December and you'll start to see what I mean. The Pittsburgh Steelers approached their Week 13 meeting with Washington with an 11-0 record and pole position for the AFC's #1 seed. Then, Pittsburgh lost to Washington, before traveling to Buffalo to lose to Josh Allen and Associates. Then, the Steelers lost on December 21st when they faced the mighty Cincinnati Bengals. These three consecutive L's gave the Chiefs a comfy lead for the #1 seed and gave the Steelers a face-full of humble pie.

Patrick Mahomes' run of mediocre play coincided with Pittsburgh's losing streak. Perhaps it's not a great sign that the Chiefs showed signs of boredom as they limped their way to the finish line, but I'm willing to blame that boredom for at least some of the struggle.

Sure, Patrick played poorly when the Chiefs had a multi-game lead in the AFC and faced off with the four-win Falcons. When KC was fighting to reclaim the #1 seed back in Week 12, things were a little different. A first-round bye was still up for grabs as the Chiefs faced off with Tompa Bay. Mahomes racked up 462 passing yards and three TD's while completing over 75% of his passes and never throwing a pick. When it mattered, Mahomes was magic. I don't expect that to change any time soon.

Mahomes vs. Jackson III Epitomizes Must-See Football

Fear is my first feeling as a fan envisioning tonight's game. As a fan, I fear the uniquely skilled QB facing off against our Kansas City Chiefs. I fear Lamar's leg's and their ability to hurt KC's recently iffy rushing defense. I fear how drastically he improved last season, and I fear that he looks even better right now. I also fear the studly, proven Baltimore defense. What I do not fear is our QB's ability to step up to a challenge of this magnitude. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. However, how many times can Patrick Mahomes pull it off against another potential face of the sport in Lamar Jackson?

Lamar vs. Mahomes epitomizes a must-see matchup. Comparing the two is as inevitable as it is entertaining. Both played in 33 games prior to tonight's face-off. My guy Mahomes has a remarkable 89/18 TD/interception ratio. Lamar's at 83/9. Both claimed their franchise's first MVP award in their second season of a potentially legendary career. Patrick's piled up 9925 passing yards, while Lamar's racked up 2000 rushing yards. That's an average of more than 300 passing yards per game for Patrick Mahomes and over 60 yards per game via Lamar's legs.

When facing the Chiefs, Lamar ran for 67 and 46 in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Mahomes finished each meeting with over 370 passing yards. Expect both men to step up in tonight's spotlight yet again. This incites those wonderful main-event prize fight feelings in me, and I can only hope this game lives up to the hype. If the Chiefs' D doesn't show up though, we're in for a shootout. Baltimore's defense and effective rushing attack would surely give them the advantage in such a game if not for Patrick. He's got Lamar's number, and I cannot predict that to change tonight. I'll pick our Chiefs in a back-and-forth 34-31 game that reminds everyone watching of which two teams are the cream of the crop in this conference.