AFC West Up for Grabs During 2017's Final Raiders Week

The final Raiders Week of 2017 culminates in a crucial Week 14 face-off. A win for the Oakland Raiders keeps their playoff hopes alive, while also putting Kansas City's playoff future in question. so the Chiefs' most hated rival will be as desperate as ever to win at Arrowhead today.

At least KC won't worry about facing a dominant running game. The Raiders' Marshawn Lynch isn't even in the league's top-20 backs any more. Oakland's 93.3 rushing yards per game is the NFL's eighth-lowest, so limiting the run and forcing some incomplete passes could give the Chiefs an advantage through time of possession which might give them a chance. Sadly, I cannot have blind faith that KC's defense, namely its defensive coordinator, will adjust enough to win today.

Bob Sutton's stubbornness or perhaps ineptitude when it comes to altering his defense could be the biggest factor in KC's collapse this season. His defense can't get consistent pressure on opposing QB's, but Sutton refuses to blitz consistently enough to create pressure. The Chiefs secondary commonly gets burnt as the QB stays comfy in an undisturbed pocket, while Sutton's gameplan doesn't allow for Justin Houston or anyone else to consistently incite fear. I'd be thrilled to see consistent, heavy, confusing blitzing against Derek Carr today, and I refuse to be upset if he reacts smoothly to burn the Chiefs for a timely touchdown. I'll just be glad that someone forced the opposing QB to make a big play while under serious pressure, because the KC defense we've seen for the vast majority of this season simply cannot do that.

Health issues with KC's best edge rushers have made this difficult this season. I get that. If something doesn't change soon though, our Chiefs won't even make the playoffs.

On the flip-side, KC's offense excelled last week under recently tweaked coaching. Matt Nagy's play-calling led to numerous huge gains through the air and more than enough total yardage and points to win that game. Let's hope Andy Reid sees the difference this made and reflects on what something similar could do for KC's defense. This brings me to my sadder-than-usual predictions for the week.

1. We have a playoff roster here in KC. The reasons for this tailspin revolve around the coaching staff. If Sutton sells out to pressure Derek Carr, he'll deserve credit for making a crucial change. If he doesn't, I'll continue to complain about him incessantly. I predict that KC will win this game if they hit Carr four or more times and sack him at least twice. I also predict that this will not happen. I also predict being really happy about being wrong if I'm wrong about that.

2. With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both playing, and Marcus Peters and Dee Ford out, the Chiefs secondary seems to be outmatched today. I predict that the Chiefs allow 275 or more passing yards to their most hated rival.

3. Partly because Oakland induces the league's fewest turnovers, I predict another solid, clean game from KC's offense, thanks also to more savvy-but-conservative Matt Nagy play-calling. This still won't be enough to overcome the pounding that Oakland's passing game can inflict on KC's weakened secondary today. The Chiefs will lose another close one late, 27-24, and once again leave Chiefs Kingdom restless.

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and enjoys the occasional anti-Derek Car meme on Twitter @DLaC67.

Week 13 In The Georgia Dome: Why KC Can Win

Your 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs just defeated the Super Bowl champs, but they’ll be the underdogs again today. According to Oddsshark.com, the 7-4 Atlanta Falcons need four or five points to cover the spread at the Georgia Dome this week. As I did my homework for this important meeting between two playoff teams, a trend quickly made itself apparent; the reasons why KC “should” lose this game all boil down to the coaching staff.

The Chiefs need a plan to limit Julio Jones’ effectiveness, but local media won’t let me forget that Bob Sutton’s defense never changes. Marcus Peters can shut down half the field on most plays while Jones lines up and attacks whichever part of the field the Falcons prefer at the moment. Atlanta is the league’s worst passing defense, yet we all know about Andy Reid’s stubborn and sometimes-stupefying play-calling on offense. That’s not to mention our struggling franchise QB. Then we have the injuries to not only the team’s best receiver but also one of history’s best running backs. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs to win this week. I’m still doing it.

KC’s stellar defense matches up today against the highest-scoring team in football, as KC’s recently-ugly offense faces a mediocre Atlanta defense. Last week, the Chiefs took an injury-riddled defense to Denver and won against one of this era’s greatest defenses. KC played a ridiculously incomplete football game and still managed to beat the Super Bowl champs at their house. The Chiefs needed all the tremendous help they got from the special teams and defense in order to win last week, but there’s reason to believe they’ll have more game-changing moments going forward.

Leading the league in turnover differential is not a fluky way to a winning record when those turnovers are clearly caused by a certain defensive strategy. Peters won’t stop jumping routes for picks, even if it means he gets burnt for it on occasion. A healthy combination of Justin Houston and Dee Ford, with some Tamba Hali sprinkled in, should consistently provide enough pressure to force mistakes from opposing QB’s. It’s simple when you read it here, sure, but Bob Sutton’s job is to complicate things for the coaching staff on the opposite sideline. Numerous game-changing moments like Eric Berry’s pick-six in Carolina prove that Sutton is doing so successfully. Maybe, to an extent, he doesn’t change the defense up because he shouldn’t.

The numbers indicate that Julio Jones can catch roughly a thousand passes today and still not ensure victory for Atlanta. Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders beat up on Phillip “now synonymous with toast” Gaines and the rest of the Chiefs secondary for 162 yards last week. You may remember that Denver was unable to win that game. Oakland’s Amari Cooper caught 10 passes for 129 yards while KC destroyed the Raiders in Week 6. Saints receiver Michael Thomas had virtually the same numbers against the Chiefs while KC handled New Orleans in Week 7. When a good receiver gets hot against the Chiefs, he’ll make his fantasy football owners happy, but it doesn’t spell disaster for Kansas City.

I know it undoubtedly sounds cliché, but the league-leading +14 turnover differential for your Kansas City Chiefs is a huge part of their identity, and a huge part of why they can win today. Especially after I described a team without an identity earlier this season, not mentioning turnovers would be simultaneously unsound as a journalist and stupid as a Chiefs fan trying to predict the outcome of this huge game.

The realistic chance of a KC win should give all Chiefs fans good vibes today, especially since this is the most “okay-to-lose” game of the season. It’s only a 16-game regular season, so there is never a loss that doesn’t sting, but you know what I’m sayin’.

Once I get another real writing gig, I’ll never get the chance to end a paragraph with “you know what I’m sayin’” again, so I’ll just leave it at that. Chiefs win another thriller, 26-23, and my emotional hangover continues.

Doug LaCerte tries using Twitter @DLaC67 all the time, but typically forgets about it until Sundays. He also still has Facebook.

Dee Ford and Marcus Peters Must Step Up Now (Or, You Know, Sunday)

Wednesday seems like a good day to dim the optimism gleamed from last week’s impressive comeback win by your Kansas City Chiefs. We all got two full days of appreciating that never-before-seen style of win. Now it’s time to remember how dreadful KC looked before the last ten minutes of regulation. How did they dig themselves such a deep hole, and how much fear should that instill in Chiefs fans?

Before Keenan Allen tore his right ACL, he caught six passes for 63 yards. Allen’s injury came on the play following the first half’s two-minute warning, meaning he was on pace to catch more than 10 passes for well over 100 yards. Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters consistently got burnt by Allen, and worries about replacing Sean Smith in the secondary seemed well-founded as KC fell to a 24-3 deficit with less than 25 minutes left on the clock.

KC’s defense did buckle down eventually, allowing just 6 points in the second half and forcing punts down the stretch when it mattered most. However, fear still looms large after needing such a brilliant comeback to beat an objectively lesser football team. The Chiefs need to consistently pressure the quarterback and provide tighter coverage in the secondary in order to win against teams better than the Chargers.

I honestly can’t tell you if it’s defensive coordinator Bob Sutton or the talent on the field who deserves the lion’s share of the blame for so many ineffective plays from defensive ends/outside linebackers, but that cannot happen when KC meets up with stronger teams. This is all at-a-glance analysis (still looking for a way to watch prior games without shelling out a Benjamin for NFL Game Pass), but I would wager that Dee Ford was a non-factor far more often than the average Chiefs fan would’ve predicted – and the average Chiefs fan was decidedly not in love with Ford’s production prior to this season.

Analysts claimed that the secondary was KC’s biggest potential weakness heading into Week 1, but I figured this had to do with whoever would go on to replace Sean Smith. It turns out that Marcus Peters earned his fair share of skeptics Sunday afternoon, too. Peters and Dee Ford aren’t alone when it comes to deserving blame for that disappointing start – a struggling defensive line also allowed 155 total rushing yards – but they are the guys KC most desperately needs right now.

Sam Mellinger’s list of super-talented wide receivers that KC will see this year is disturbingly long. Adam Schefter’s latest report on Justin Houston has him returning to the Chiefs in November. Week 9 will reportedly be the earliest game in which he may play. That means we need Ford to help apply pressure while Peters covers TY Hilton, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall and DeAndre Hopkins. The Chiefs should be favorites in either two or three of those four games, but this season could all come down to how well this struggling duo fares before Houston’s return.

Feel free to loudly disagree with me on Twitter @DLaC67 or on my Facebook page.

One-Loss Woes, and Why They're Overblown

The first loss of the season is never fun. No matter when or how it comes, it will always bring with it new feelings of fear and uncertainty. This year, it came after a surprising 9-0 start that provoked just as much commendation as it did scrutiny. How bad will this hurt the team, and what does it say about their ability to compete against the league's best?

We should all take a deep breath, Chiefs fans. This loss doesn't prove KC to be a fraud in any way, as humbling as it may now feel. If anything, the Chiefs proved yesterday that they're just a couple adjustments away from beating the Broncos with their style of football.

The Chiefs held the Broncos to their lowest points total and Manning to his lowest completion percentage all year. That says a lot when you consider that KC never got to Manning all night. I predicted that Peyton would dink and dunk KC to death and limit sacks, but I sure as hell didn't think he'd go completely unblemished. It seems the Chiefs DC Bob Sutton was unwilling to blitz often, which is something he'll need to remedy in the very near future. Sadly, that's just one of the ways coaching lost this game for Kansas City.

Jamal Charles touched the ball 18 times last night. 7 of his 16 rushes went between the tackles, and his 2 receptions (for -6 yards) came with less than a minute left in the 4^th quarter, when the game was effectively over. While running up the gut clearly isn't Jamaal's specialty, the coaching staff can't be blamed for that one. KC's offensive line struggled, especially at the tackle positions, and their inadequacy allowed way too many rushing attempts to fail. To succeed on offense, OC Doug Pederson and the rest of the offense have to figure out ways to give their best asset big-play potential. Wasn't Jamaal supposed to be the new Brian Westbrook or Lesean McCoy? Please, give that man a damn screen pass.

Without properly using their most valuable player, winning the turnover ratio, sacking (or even knocking down) the opposing QB or completing half their passes on offense, the Chiefs still had Peyton furrowing his massive brow in concern until the last few minutes of the 4^th quarter. KC should be able to improve their blitz game, give Jamaal the ball in open space to beat Denver at home two weeks from now. Before that fateful game, the Chiefs have the impressively whiny Philip Rivers to deal with next Sunday. Tune in later this week for a look at the upcoming divisional face-off against the Chargers at Arrowhead.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and writes a bunch of other stuff for Rant Sports. Follow him @DlaC67 for more Philip Rivers hatred, send any and all funny Chiefs GIFs to him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google.

A Hopeful Home Opener Preview

On my list of least likable NFL teams, the over-hyped and under-performing Dallas Cowboys would have to rank 3^rd overall. Since the Raiders are presumably still a joke and we don't play Cincinnati this year, this Sunday will yield for me the most enjoyment I can attain from hating someone for this entire season. Let us revel in communal disgust as we discuss this upcoming Chiefs home opener.

Last year, Dallas' offensive line ranked 22^nd in the league in run blocking and 11^th in pass protection. This year, they've added two new linemen to the starting offense that have zero combined snaps in the NFL prior to last Sunday. DeMarco Murray ran the ball 20 times for 86 yards last week against the Giants. That's not an outstanding performance, nor is it an embarrassment, especially considering that the Cowboys held on for a week 1 victory. MJD's production last week? That was embarrassing.

Maurice Jones-Drew played his 100^th game and carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards, averaging 3 yards per rush. MJD was only held to a lower yard-per-carry average once in the two previous seasons. For the record, Jacksonville's offensive line ranked 17^th in run blocking last year, and with the addition of the almost-1^st overall draft pick Luke Joeckel, they're sure to rank higher in 2013.

The Cowboys will presumably counter the Chiefs' strength in stopping the run by bringing a pass-heavy offensive plan to Arrowhead this week. Romo, who is currently listed as probable for Sunday's game, completed 73.5% of his passes last week against a solid defense. He only averaged 5.4 yards per catch though, which is the lowest average he's ever recorded in a game with at least 4 completions.

The Chiefs, with an uber-athletic secondary that knows how to tackle in the open field, will hope to keep this trend going. If last week's performance is any indication of their chances, their chances look pretty damn good. Just don't forget that those numbers are artificially inflated by Jacksonville's overall crappiness. Gabbert completed 16 of 35 passes. That's less than a 46% completion percentage. He played so poorly, in fact, that he lost his job; Chad Henne will start for the Jags this week against Oakland. Bob Sutton should probably send him some kind of classy fruit basket.

The chess-match was totally dominated by Sutton last Sunday. 3 sacks by future-perennial-Pro Bowler Justin Houston and constant pressure on the quarterback will prove that as coaches review the game tape this week. Not only were Chiefs consistently getting behind enemy lines, they were often doing so untouched.

But how will the Chiefs' offense fare against the Cowboy's D? Feel free to use Wednesday's post for reference, keeping in mind the aforementioned bad-team-based inflation. Dallas gave up 450 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air last week. While Eli>Alex Smith, it's not by a lot, and I'm slowly starting to believe the hype that this offense could be at least as good as New York's. Dallas held the Giants' running backs to 42 yards in 12 carries, but they'll have a wholly different monster to deal with when it comes to Jamaal. My faith will always be with #25. Until Demarcus Ware eats him.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's home-opener-

1- KC doubles New York's yardage output from last week. That means 84 yards, at least. The offense surprised me last week with a somewhat balance run/pass ratio, so I expect Charles to get significant touches to keep the second level of the Dallas D on their toes. An emerging group of talented receivers will spread the defense out enough for Jamaal to slash and burn as only he can.

2- Romo's completion percentage will drop by at least 8 points, thanks to some applied pressure from KC linebackers.

3- Hali and Houston get at least a sack each, as Dallas struggles to decide which side of the line they should stack.

4- Kansas City earns 25 more yards with kickoff and punt returns than Dallas, as Ryan Succop begins his season without a miss. That's a prediction twofer right there. Lucky you.

5- I'm going to be a downer with my first call of the season, but only for the sake of the unknown. We really have no idea how this offense will react to a better defense, or how this defense will react to a real quarterback. I'm going to guess that the Chiefs will compete, but ultimately get outgunned at home. Chiefs lose, 27-24, and curb the enthusiasm of this tense, excited fan-base just a little bit. It may be disappointing, but unless it's a blowout it won't be enough to stop us from daydreaming about the playoffs. It should be “dropped your beer in the stands” disappointing, not “dropped your heart medicine in the ocean” disappointing. Still, nobody enjoys spilling their beer, so let's all hope I'm dead wrong.

Meet the Gang, Part 7- Bob Sutton

In 1973, the release of Dark Side of the Moon was blowing the minds of hippies and rebels and flower children everywhere. Richard Nixon was still telling the press he wasn't a crook, The Exorcist was scaring everyone back to church, and Bruce Lee was finally karate-chopping bad guys for an American audience. In baseball, the American League began playing with designated hitter rules for the first time. In football, Dan Shula's Dolphins recorded the first and only perfect season in NFL history. Chiefs owner Clark Hunt was just an eight year old boy watching Len Dawson throw bombs to Otis Taylor.

What was Bob Sutton doing? Coaching football. What's he doing now? Coaching football, for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sutton brings 40 uninterrupted years of coaching experience to KC's defensive coordinator position. He started his coaching career in 1973, serving as a grad assistant under legendary college coach, Bo Schembechler. After nearly two decades at various positions and colleges, Bob found himself coaching Army in 1991. There he stayed until the Jets hired him in 2000. In New York, Sutton worked at four different positions under four different coaches in 13 seasons.

Bob brings all the stout defensive mentality from New York, without the huge mouth or the drama. Sounds perfect for Kansas City. But, the statistics reveal some sub-par performance in recent years. Overall, the Jets ranked 18^th or lower in three of the last five years. Sadly, two of those crappy seasons outrank Kansas City's defense of the same year, and, not-so-sadly, the stats also show that when the Jet's D is good, it's really good. In '09 and 2010, the Jet's defense ranked 1^st and 5^th, respectively. Each of those years, New York sent two defensive players to the Pro Bowl. Tamba, Houston, Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson all went to Hawaii this year, and they aren't the only Chiefs on defense that will go in the future. With talent like this already in place, Bob Sutton should prove to be a good choice. Coaches and league experts praise Bob for his mentoring abilities and high football IQ. I've stated before that this team has all the pieces necessary for elite status. With any luck (no year-long injuries,) Sutton is the kind of coach that can make them a top-5 defense.