Chiefs Visit Jerry World for Tough Turkey Day Test

On this very special holiday, I'm reminded of everything that makes me thankful. I'm thankful for friends, for my family, for my wonderful pets, and I'm thankful the Chiefs didn't blow it last weekend and ruin their whole damn season. After KC survived that nailbiter on Sunday, the odds-makers now have the Chiefs as the third-likeliest team to win the Super Bowl and the betting favorite to win the AFC. That's one hell of an accomplishment for a team that seemed to be on the brink of missing the playoffs.

Andy Reid and his staff clearly thought highly of Indy's tandem of talented cornerbacks in former Chief Charvarius Ward and recently acquired Sauce Gardner. KC's offense approached that game with their most rush-heavy gameplan in several seasons. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 30 times while KC held the Colts' powerful offense to just 20 points. An even bigger surprise came from what running backs did not accomplish on Sunday, as KC held MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to under 60 rushing yards. That brings the Chiefs' average for rushing yards allowed per game down to 97.6. Every team with a lower average than KC is currently on pace to make the playoffs, aside from Houston, who is the currently the last team out and two spots ahead of the Chiefs.

Moving the ball on the ground successfully was especially important for KC last Sunday when Patrick Mahomes continued his unusual slump. It's safe to say Mahomes still hasn't been his best. He missed on some potentially big plays downfield, his QBR didn't reach 70, and his Passer Rating didn't reach 80. That's three games in a row of Mahomes not reaching a Rating of 80, which he's only done once, and not since mid-season of 2021. Despite this rare multi-game slump, Mahomes is still putting up some big numbers. Actually, both teams meeting in Dallas today have QB's who could be considered the most productive in their conference.

Patrick and Prescott have the two highest averages for passing yardage in the NFL. ESPN's QBR stat ranks Dak first league-wide and Mahomes third. Passer Rating doesn't think either guy is even a top-six quarterback because Passer Rating is kinda dumb, but I'll focus on that some other time. Prescott is playing an elite level of football that's keeping Dallas alive far longer than the Vegas odds-makers and pro analysts predicted. The Cowboys rank first in yards per game and fourth in points with Prescott at the helm.

The defense is their obvious flaw. Dallas allows the fourth-most total yards and the second-most total points in the NFL. They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in passing yards, resulting in the fourth-most total yards allowed per game. Only the Bengals allow their opponents to score more points. Maybe Dallas has some newfound confidence after defeating the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, but that was the first win they've collected over a good football team. Their only other victories came when facing the Giants, Jets, Commanders and Raiders.

I don't expect KC to take their foot off the pedal any time soon, especially not in front of the whole country on Turkey Day. I also don't expect the best football player ever born to keep struggling like he has lately. When the weather gets cold and the games matter most, Mahomes delivers. I'm predicting a 29-24 victory for Kansas City. I hope you get to enjoy today with people who love football and love you. Have a happy Turkey Day.

Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Dak's Dominant Dallas Cowboys Come to KC

Things changed quickly in the AFC West last week after the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs overpowered the Las Vegas Raiders 41-14 in Vegas. Kansas City now leads the division and seems to be hitting their stride in every facet of the game. The Chiefs move on to face the Dallas Cowboys today in a possible Super Bowl preview. KC must continue this improvement while also avoiding major mistakes in order to keep up their winning ways this evening.

Patrick Mahomes successfully moving the ball with superstars and role-players, alike was the key to claiming a comfortable victory last Sunday. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill combined for 15 catches, 202 yards and two touchdowns, but Mahomes and Andy Reid spread the wealth. Mahomes threw touchdowns to four different Chiefs, and four different Chiefs ended the day with at least four receptions. Especially impressive was Darrel Williams' nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.

KC can outscore Dak Prescott's offense today if they continue this strategy while keeping the ball out of the hands of Trevon Diggs. He leads the league with eight picks and ranks second with 13 pass deflections. It's very possible Andy Reid schemes the offense around this guy to limit his game-wrecking potential, but other gifted coaches have tried to do the same and failed.

Turnovers are perhaps a boring topic, but it's important to know that Diggs has helped his team to the NFL's 7th-best turnover differential. Even after a game with no interceptions by Mahomes and a Daniel Sorensen pick, the Chiefs still rank 29th in turnover differential. If KC just keeps the differential in today's game even, they should be able to beat one of the truly elite teams in football right now. It's time for the Chiefs to take care of business against a Super Bowl contender with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB under center. I'm predicting an exciting 34-31 victory for Kansas City.

How Will Chiefs Respond to Early Adversity?

It took several turnovers and game-changing penalties to get it done, but our Kansas City Chiefs reacted to their disappointing defeat in Baltimore with a disappointing defeat at Arrowhead. Few expected this. Chiefs Kingdom is shaken. The space between games felt painfully long this week. Ugly turnovers at inopportune moments cost the Chiefs two out of their first three games as they faced off with some of the AFC's best, but today will be different. Today, KC faces off with a 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles team led by a talented young quarterback experiencing significant growing pains in an organization with no expectations of reaching the playoffs this year.

It's no surprise that KC is a big favorite today, but if the Chiefs let this week's game stay interesting for long, the success-hungry fans of Kansas City will consider it an underperformance. Patrick Mahomes and a motivated Chiefs team should finish today with their biggest margin of victory of the season so far, and maybe their biggest of the entire year. Philly just lost to the Dallas Cowboys by 20, as Dak Prescott completed over 80% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. Chiefs deep threat maestro Tyreek Hill only caught five passes last week and three the week before. I expect his impact on this game to be bigger than it was in these last two weeks, and I expect the Chiefs to overwhelm the Eagles with their superior offensive firepower.

What could turn this potential blowout into another nail-biter, or worse, another heart-breaking L for the Chiefs? The obvious answer is turnovers, which can ruin even the most well-crafted gameplan, but what else? KC's run defense is bad right now, and Jalen Hurts' running ability presents problems for bad run defenses. The Chiefs defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game and the second-most points per game league-wide. It's worth noting once again, though, that the Chiefs experienced these struggles while facing three of the best teams the AFC has to offer. Philly has upside, but they're objectively the worst team on paper that Kansas City has faced so far this season. Aside from the technical reasons why the Chiefs are the superior team taking the field today, there is another, more philosophical advantage that KC brings to today's meeting.

A team playing for their chance to achieve greatness becomes hungry and dangerous after facing early-season adversity. KC still has every reason to believe they can earn a bye week in the playoffs when they see the underwhelming teams currently atop the standings. The AFC's three teams with three wins are the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals. I don't believe that any of these teams that failed to finish last season with winning records will threaten the Chiefs' chances at the top playoff seed this season. Dropping to 1-3 would make reclaiming the #1 seed highly unlikely, while climbing to 2-2 keeps the chase for the bye week alive and well. This simple fact will motivate everyone in the Chiefs organization.

I'm predicting a 37-20 victory for our Chiefs today as they try to get mentally healthy before facing the Buffalo Bills next Sunday night. A Kansas City team led by Andy Reid won't overlook the Eagles; they'll simply execute their game-plan effectively enough to use Philly as their punching bag after two weeks of serious frustration.

Can Underdog Chiefs Beat the 'Boys In Dallas?

It's been so long since your Kansas City Chiefs faced the Dallas Cowboys that one of the starting QB's from their last face-off is calling the game for CBS this time around. We'll see two of the league's five highest-scoring offenses today, and a couple average-at-best defenses, so it's shaping up to be an action-packed afternoon in Dallas. Should the Chiefs Kingdom feel disrespected by the 2.5 points Vegas is giving KC this week?

At the very least, Chiefs fans have the right to be irritated by all the talk about how awful their squad's defense is this season. Comparing the Cowboys defense to KC's provides further evidence that the Chiefs D still epitomizes "bend, don't break". Despite allowing more yards per game than all-but-two teams in the league, KC actually allows fewer points per game than Dallas this season. The Cowboys' 324.9 yards allowed per game is 13th in the NFL, but they give up an average of 23 points each week. The Chiefs' opponents average 22.5 points per game this year. I kept this in mind while I whipped up today's three predictions:

1. KC's well-known susceptibility to star running backs presumably made Bob Sutton sleep restlessly this week, but I trust him....sorta. I think KC's defensive strategy will be tweaked to limit Ezekiel Elliot, which will leave the Kansas City secondary with even more problems than usual. I expect the Chiefs to hold Zeke close to his 98.6 yards-per-game average today, but I predict that this allows Dak Prescott to rack up at least 260 yards through the air - over 35 more than his average this season.

2. Kansas City has the league's lowest red zone touchdown scoring percentage over the last three weeks. Over the entire 2017 season, the Chiefs rank 19th league-wide with a 50% red zone touchdown scoring percentage (a statistic for which even an acronym sounds too wordy). Dallas ranks 5th in that same stat. For KC to overcome the 'boys today, this must change. I predict that whichever team leads in this stat by the end of the game will win.

3. Andy must feel a strong desire to prove himself and this offense's legitimacy today in Dallas. Last week's game was won largely because of turnovers, and KC's offense stalled in important moments time and time again (0-3 in the red zone and 2-12 converting third downs, according to B.J Kissel at kcchiefs.com). Dallas is 15th in both rushing yards and passing yards allowed, so Reid's offensive game plan should be a balanced attack involving heavy doses of his three star playmakers.

The Chiefs should score some points today, but it will come down to which of these legit squads performs best in the clutch. I suppose it always comes down to this in any well-played game. Those numbers regarding the Chiefs' recent ineffectiveness in the red zone seem damning. I dread the thought of KC's defense facing yet another elite running back whose team consistently gives him the rock when the opposition clearly can't stop him. Injury concerns with KC's offensive line, paired with the fact that Dallas features a healthy, top-five offensive line themselves, also make it difficult for me to predict a victory for KC today.

This version of the Kansas City Chiefs is legit. If they lose this afternoon, it shouldn't make you think any differently. For all the reasons I just gave, that could definitely happen. I'm still predicting a win for KC, though.

The 2.5-point spread makes perfect sense, but I think the Chiefs will once again win the turnover battle to help them win the game. KC already faced three teams who give up fewer points per game than Dallas, and they scored at least 29 against each of them. Despite giving up tons of yardage to the opposition, the Chiefs held the Patriots' league-leading offense to 27 points. The power rankings all call the Philadelphia Eagles the league's best team right now, and KC held them to 20 points. The Redskins couldn't score more than that, and the [several expletives removed] Steelers won while scoring only 19. It's time for KC to prove themselves against a top-shelf team in a clutch moment, deep in the season, when team identities start to solidify. Against the odds-makers' better judgement, I predict a thrilling 29-26 victory for the Chiefs. @ me about how stupid I am any time. Isn't @ me a cool thing that cool people say now? That's a thing, right?

Doug LaCerte still neglects his Facebook page, but you can @ him or whatever @DLaC67.