Will KC's Playoff Hopes Survive Tough Texans Test?

The Chiefs really bummed out the Kingdom by losing on Thanksgiving, but did it end their season? I can barely remember how it feels to be a fan of a team unlikely to reach the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are having a legendary run of three straight Super Bowl appearances and seven straight seasons hosting the AFC Championship game, but they currently sit at the #10 seed in their conference.Tonight's do-or-die fight at Arrowhead involves another team still alive in the AFC playoff hunt but currently on the outside looking in, and they're a match-up nightmare for the Chiefs.

Linemen Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor are listed on KC's injury report as doubtful for tonight's game. If Houston's offense can score a bunch today, the Chiefs' playoff hopes will die, because putting up 40 against this Texans defense isn't happening. Nobody allows fewer yards per game than the Texans this year. They pressure opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate, and they've tallied up the fourth-most takeaways in football. It's up to KC's defense to improve upon recent unimpressive performances to keep the dream alive tonight.

The Chiefs defense ranks 27th in sacks per game. They have the fourth-fewest takeaways in the NFL after ranking around league-average all last season. Their allowed third-down conversion rate ranks 26th. All these issues were evident when KC lost last week's Thanksgiving game against Dallas due a ton of penalties and numerous missteps from the defense on second-half third-downs. That will end their season if it happens tonight. A victory tonight brings the likeliness of KC reaching the playoffs back up to slightly above 50%.

Aside from playing us again, the Chargers have to play the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos. Indy has to play San Fran, Houston and two against Jacksonville. The Bills and Jags have easier paths, but still have work to do to ensure a better seed than Kansas City. Hope is still alive, and the roads to the playoffs are still numerous, as long as KC survives tonight's battle. I'm predicting a 23-20 victory for the Chiefs. To have no hope for the playoffs with over two weeks to go until Christmas would just feel wrong.

Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Steeler's Won't Sour Kansas City's Christmas

I'm not used to waking up on Christmas and watching Kansas City Chiefs football. It still feels weird, doesn't it? Last time around, things didn't turn out so great for the defending champs. KC lost on this day in 2023 to the Raiders, but they went on to never lose a game for the rest of that season and for another nine games into the next season. Here's to hoping the Chiefs can start a similar run without suffering a similar defeat today.

It's weird to experience live Chiefs football on Christmas, but live Chiefs football on a Wednesday is even weirder. This short week has compounded injury problems for both rosters. Jawaan Taylor and Chris Jones are listed as questionable for today's game. Pittsburgh's Ben Skowronek and Joey Porter Jr. are both out today, but emerging young receiver George Pickens will be back in action. A weakened Chiefs pass-rush could keep things closer than KC would like.

Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, the Chiefs still have the advantage against Pittsburgh and, to be fair, everyone else in the league when it matters most. Their third-down conversion rate on offense is now at 50.95%, a full 2% better than the rest of the league. Pittsburgh's defense allows the fifth-lowest third-down conversion rate to opponents this season, so each critical third-down moment for the Chiefs offense will be a strength-on-strength matchup. KC's defense, on the other hand, ranks 20th in opponents' third-down conversion rate. That's a subpar facet of the Chiefs defense which is objectively strong in most other statistical categories right now, which has resulted in the league's third-lowest points-per-game allowed. The 2024 Chiefs currently allow just 0.2 more points per game than the league-leading Los Angeles Chargers.

That impressive defense gave the Chiefs time to find their stride on offense while struggling through injuries. Now, it looks like that offense is finding its rhythm at just the right time. We just watched Hollywood Brown return and immediately make an impact in the passing game with five catches and eight targets. Xavier Worthy completed his current career high of seven passes in his second straight game with 11 targets. The Chiefs continue to get this offense fully operational before it's do-or-die against playoff teams with a proven ability to put a bunch of points on the board.

Another reason for confidence in a Chiefs win today is Patrick Mahomes' domination of the Steelers in an admittedly small two-game sample size. In those two games, Mahomes threw for 584 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. His 148.2 Passer Rating in those two games is the best Rating he has against any team in the league. I like this Chiefs offense with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood all healthy and involved, so I like the Chiefs in this game, 27-20. I truly hope you get a chance to enjoy the game and the holiday with people you love.

Can KC's Superb Secondary Disrupt Dangerous Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend?

A uniquely frigid setting for history-making football awaits the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium tonight. Much digital ink was spilled detailing the historically cold temperatures for this Wild Card Weekend in KC, but credit goes to @SBBreakers for the tweets of the week. The original has all the details, but the main takeaways are that the Mahomes-era Chiefs are undefeated in weather below 18 degrees, and Miami is winless in their 11 games played in temperatures below 40 degrees since 2017. That's bad news for a Dolphins team that already looked pedestrian facing the Chiefs in Germany a couple months ago. I can't remember the exact temperature in Frankfurt that day, but I really don't think the wind chill was expected to dip below -15 like it will in KC tonight.

The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 that day, and numerous Dolphins currently dealing with injuries helped Miami keep that game close. Bradley Chubb strip-sacked Patrick Mahomes for a fumble on a crucial third down. Chubb's out for the season. Xavien Howard helped Miami's secondary disrupt KC's passing offense so much that Chiefs tight end Noah Gray led his team in receiving yards with 34. Howard is also unavailable for tonight's game. Miami's leading rusher in that mid-season game, Raheem Mostert, is also struggling with a knee injury that left him limited in participation in his latest practice.

One impact player on Miami's offense that should enter today's game with relatively sound health is former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, who had 63 receiving yards and a key fumble in the aforementioned November meeting with Kansas City. He's actually done more damage to KC's defense than most other elite receivers this season. The Chiefs held Philly's A.J. Brown to one catch for eight receiving yards, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to four catches for 24 and Bengal Ja'Marr Chase to 3 for 41. The numbers, and Trent McDuffie being named as a first team All-Pro, prove that the Chiefs can shut down the best weapons from any passing offense in football. 

Another key difference between today's Miami-KC matchup and the last one is the availability of Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton. The nasty weather won't help Miami's passing attack, and it will likely lead to more plays designed to safely get Tyreek the ball with room to run. In moments like this, on jet sweeps and bubble screens and whatnot, the opposing defense relies heavily on their linebackers to get to the right spot and make timely tackles. This is Nick Bolton's forte. Having him healthy today, when circumstances dictate that the opponent's offensive game plan be built to attack his position, is a highly underrated advantage for Kansas City. With his help, the Chiefs only need to perform up to their normal standard and avoid crucial mistakes in order to secure the victory tonight.

Those crucial mistakes, however, weren't so easy to avoid in the regular season. KC finished the season tied for the fourth-worst turnover differential and tied for the most offensive holding penalties in the NFL this season. Four different teams did not surpass the eight holding penalties drawn solely by Chiefs left tackle Jawaan Taylor. These kinds of things leave the door open for disappointment. I still think the Chiefs can overcome them, though. I'm predicting a memorable and gritty 20-13 victory for KC.

Can Browning's Bengals Bring Bummer Ending To KC's 2023?

When was the last time the vibes in Chiefs Kingdom felt this low? Losing a Super Bowl is frustrating, of course, but the Kansas City Chiefs performed impressively in practically every moment until the Big Game at the end of the season. I'm more thinking about fear than frustration, I suppose. With two games left in the season, the Chiefs already have six losses. The lack of fan confidence (at least this fan's confidence) entering this game against a backup QB and a team not expected to reach the playoffs tells you all you need to know about the Chiefs' vulnerability at this point.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one loss away from effectively ending their season. If Cincy wins their final two games and gets help from other 8-7 teams ahead of them in the Wild Card hunt, Jake Browning's Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. They're alive, but just barely; their chances are at or below 20%, depending on which proprietary stat you choose to use for a measuring stick. Chiefs recently lost to other desperate teams fighting for their playoff lives when they faced the Packers and Bills, so should Cincy scare KC today? The Raiders didn't scare anybody last week, and they embarrassed KC on Christmas.

Football can be weird. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell posted an 88.8 QBR in his first meeting with the Chiefs this season, and the Raiders lost by 14. He just posted a 12.1 QBR on the Chiefs - on Christmas, at Arrowhead - and the Chiefs lost by six. This Christmas day, a fumble on a trick play and a pick-six occurred within seven seconds of game-time. Before ten seconds could run off the clock, the Raiders defense scored as much as the Chiefs would score all day. That's a testament to the occasional flukiness of football, but it's also more evidence that KC's offense has not figured out how to pull their team out of the fire when it matters most.

Mahomes still has his magical moments, but on paper, he looks like a totally different guy since the Week 8 disaster in Denver. He had a QBR higher than 64 in all of his first seven games of this season. Since Week 8, he's only posted a QBR above 61 once. Mahomes never took more than two sacks in any of his first seven games. Since then, he's been sacked three or more times in four different games.

Five of those sacks this season were allowed by Jawaan Taylor, who also leads the NFL in penalties with 17. L'Jarius Sneed, by the way, is tied for fourth with 10 penalties, making the Chiefs the only team in the league with multiple players in the top-10 in penalties drawn. For Taylor in particular, these penalties are beyond disappointing. He just penned a four-year, $80-million contract with the Chiefs last offseason. PFF gives him a 50.1 overall grade for his efforts in 2023. Since Taylor' effectiveness is so critical to the effectiveness of Mahomes - the most important man on the field whenever he's on the field - Taylor's struggles may be the biggest and most understated factor in the recent decline of KC's offense.

All of these are factors that I believe the Chiefs will overcome today, thanks in large part to the Bengals' struggles on defense. They allow the second-most yards-per-game average, despite the best efforts of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. KC's defense is still holding strong with the league's second-fewest total yards, passing yards, and total points-per-game allowed. I'll predict an ugly 17-13 victory for KC. Enjoy the game with people who love football, and enjoy all the new year with people who love you.

Can KC Continue Week 1 Dominance by Defeating Detroit?

Should we be scared about this matchup, Chiefs Kingdom? The Lions are formidable, and the (probable) absences of two of KC's three best players ensure that the Chiefs will not be 100% tonight. It's no secret that the Chiefs dominate Week 1 in the Andy Reid era; they're 9-1 in season openers since Andy came to town, as noted by Arrowhead Pride's John Dixon, and Patrick Mahomes has scored at least 33 in every Week 1 start in his career, according to the prolific Stephen Serda. History alone cannot overcome KC's obstacles tonight, however. Before we look into the lack of Chris Jones and probable lack of Travis Kelce, we should remember just how good the '23 Lions could be.

Detroit's offense finished fifth in points per game and fourth in total yards per game last season. They went 8-2 in their last 10 games. A galvanized, hungry, young roster will be excited to take their shot at the champs tonight. Will their mediocre-at-best defense keep them in this game? That could depend heavily on the effectiveness of Kansas City's revamped offensive line.

We may be understating how different this offensive line will be without Orlando Brown at left tackle. As reported by ESPN's Adam Teicher, the Chiefs signed Donovan Smith to be their starting left tackle after he had one of the worst starting seasons in his entire career. The opposite can be said for KC's new right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who showed significant improvement as a Jacksonville Jaguar last year, just before the Chiefs signed him up for four years and $80 million. The trustworthy core of the Chiefs offensive line and promising new signing at right tackle should keep Patrick safe for years to come, but entering the season with questions about the most important position on that line is undoubtedly not the ideal scenario for KC.

Kelce and Jones' absences are unavoidable and important topics heading into this game. KC's next man up at the tight end position, Noah Gray, won't just slot right into this offense and have 87's level of creativeness and chemistry with the starters. That doesn't mean KC is destined to struggle on offense tonight, though. Jerick McKinnon, Skyy Moore and others can be expected to step up and increase their productivity without Kelce on the field. Filling the Chris Jones-sized void on the other side of the ball seems like the tougher task tonight.

#95 applied a ridiculous amount of pressure on opponents' offenses last season, finishing with the league's fourth-most sacks (15.5) and by far the most sacks by any defensive lineman in football. The only other Chief on the roster with more than five sacks last season is George Karlaftis, who had six. Defensive end Charles Omenihu is serving his suspension and first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah isn't immediately ready for a starting role. That means pressuring the quarterback won't be simple for KC tonight against an offense that could soon prove itself as one of the best in the league.

The ceiling for this Lions offense looks like it could be one of footballs' highest. Jahmyr Gibb's promise as a speedy, pass-catching RB is undeniable, and Amon-Ra St. Brown's future looks equally bright. Last year's Lions' offense finished with the league's fifth-most points per game and fourth-most total yards per game. Gibbs can hopefully be contained by Chiefs linebackers paying extra attention to him this evening. Despite averaging more than six catches per game last year, St. Brown dropped 40 of 146 targets. Extra physicality from KC's secondary could disrupt St. Brown enough to limit his effectiveness today. Seeing a little violence (within the rules of the game) from the likes of Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid would bode well for Kansas City's near future.

Turnovers are a boring and simple topic, but winning the turnover battle can be crucial in potentially close games such as this one. Detroit finished last year with the NFL's fewest giveaways and fourth-best turnover differential. KC was league-average or worse in those categories last season, so it seems likely that the Chiefs will need to overcome not only the aforementioned absences but also a negative turnover differential tonight.

All the elements of this game that favor Detroit still don't add up to me predicting a Chiefs defeat. Reid and Mahomes are just too good together in Week 1 for me to do that. Also, Detroit's defense is just as horrendous as their offense is impressive; they allowed the most total yards per game and the fifth-most points per game in the league last season. I predict that the Lions scare Chiefs Kingdom with some flashy offense tonight but ultimately fall to the defending Super Bowl champs in a 31-27 thriller. Whatever happens tonight will set the tone for upcoming matchups with other promising teams like Jacksonville, the Jets and the Vikings, who all face off with the Chiefs before the middle of October.