Can KC Cover Sizeable Spread By Dominating Doomed Dolphins?

This week's opponent for the Kansas City Chiefs provides the perfect example of what not to do as a football franchise. The Miami Dolphins are highly likely to stink for at least two years. They lost by two touchdowns to the Raiders in Week 1, then the 49ers blew them out last week. They have some really ugly team stats I'll show you here soon, and it's probably because they have to pay a guy who isn't on their roster.

I'm not blaming Tua Tagovailoa for signing the contract. In fact, credit is owed to him and his representation for cooking that thing up and getting it done. The Dolphins are paying Tua $99.2 million over the next two years just to go away. That's insane in a league where every team has a strict budget of $272.5 million this season. It is also more money than the Miami Marlins spent on their entire 2026 payroll. This has forced the franchise to make cost-effective roster choices that made them bad at almost everything so far this season.

The Dolphins offense is averaging the fifth-fewest yards and second-fewest points per game through two games. As Miami analyst Chris Kouffman pointed out, 47% of their offensive linemen snaps are going to back-ups, which is a way higher rate than any winning team in the league. The defense is allowing 31 points per game, the fourth-most in the league, and Miami has recorded zero sacks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs scored 31 or more in both their first games, and they lead the league in total yards per game with 457.5. 

It's starting to get late early for Miami, and I can't avoid thinking it has something to do with the huge check they're cashing for Atlanta Falcons back-up quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. This year's cap hit for letting him go is $55.2 million. That's enough to pay Josh Allen to actually play for the team. That's enough to pay off this year's salaries for Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake May, Geno Smith, and throw in two years of Kenneth Walker III. If things get tough for the Chiefs at any point this season, just try to remind yourself how much worse things could be.  

Maybe finding greatness in a future #1 overall draft pick can bring an end to the misery in Miami, but it isn't ending today. Andy Reid could use this live action to test out some younger guys and give the veterans a rest in the Florida heat, but not before this one is decidedly in Kansas City's control. I'm predicting a comfy 34-17 victory for the Chiefs.

Can KC Keep Colts' Losing Streak Alive?

There was a point last season when the Indianapolis Colts were 7-1, and that loss was to the L.A Rams. They continued their successful start with an overtime victory in Berlin in November. After their bye week, they faced off with our Kansas City Chiefs. That week, the Chiefs overcame an 11-point deficit with an overtime game-winning field goal to beat the Colts 23-20. Indy hasn't won since.

That game sent the Colts into a death spiral of seven straight defeats that left then with a losing record and denied them entry to the postseason. The losing carried over into this season when they were outmatched by the Baltimore Ravens last week. So if the Chiefs whooped their opponents by three touchdowns last week, and their next opponent just got whooped by 18, then surely more of the same is destined to happen this week, right? I'm not so sure.

Kenneth Walker III made a serious statement with his first performance as a Chief, with 173 rushing yards, including a 60-yard breakaway touchdown, with another 18 yards receiving. That all began on the Chiefs' first drive that involved handing the ball to K9 in the first seven of eight plays. This week, Kansas City faces a team that allowed the 3rd-most passing yards but the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game last season. Sauce Gardner was still playing elite-level corner despite minor injuries last year, but the rest of Indy's secondary is vulnerable. Now that the threat of the Chiefs' new rushing attack is real and frightening, play-action passes and other counters to the run defense will be more potent. Andy Reid and OC Eric Bienemy undoubtedly spent this week gameplanning with a new-found joy stemming from this new-found balance on offense.

That means KC is more likely to air it out at a higher rate than last week, while the Colts are likely to keep plugging away with their star running back, and for good reason. Taylor had at least 16 carries in 14 games last year. Colts QB Daniel Jones struggled in Week 1, but if he could just provide average production, Indy's new acquisition at wide receiver could present opposing defenses with big mismatches. Adding veteran Keenan Allen to the Colts offense means they have two athletic receivers who are at least 6'2. That could be enough to pose more of a problem to the Chiefs than Denver did last week.

Add to that the possible psychological boost Indy gets from wanting to exorcise the demon of that defeat that seemingly cursed them. Beating the team that started this ongoing losing streak, which is now the league's longest, could be a rallying cry for the Colts this week. That won't give them enough mojo to beat KC tonight, though. I was wrong when I predicted a gritty game last week, since the Chiefs walked all over Denver, but I'm predicting a gritty victory again today and hoping for a similar overdelivery. I'm picking the Chiefs, 24-20.

Could Challenging Chiefs Schedule Make Missing Playoffs Possible in '26?

The Kansas City Chiefs begin this season facing bigger, scarier questions than ever before in the Patrick Mahomes era. It's tough to know how the secondary will perform after a complete overhaul. The wide receiver room has numerous young, high-ceiling performers that have issues with staying on the field. The greatest tight end in football history is either just barely past his prime or about to look ancient, depending on who you ask. With all this uncertainty and surely more to analyze as the season goes on, the experts at DraftKings and me are still predicting double-digit victories for the Chiefs. Will that be enough to avoid back-to-back seasons of the Chiefs missing the playoffs?

The current over/under for the Chiefs' regular season win total is 10.5 at DraftKings. Only the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams have a higher expected win total. After 10 straight seasons of winning at least 10 games, the Chiefs went 6-11 last year, and the offense sputtered with or without Mahomes. Kansas City finished 20th in yards per game and 21st in points last season. We'll spend more time analyzing the offense as the season progresses, but the focus this offseason was clearly on upgrading the running game. Replacing previous average-at-best production with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III and bringing back running backs guru Eric Bienemy represents a clear improvement here, but other changes for this team are more concerning.

Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook all played a big role for KC last season, and they're all gone. McDuffie played in over 650 snaps representing over 65% of the playing time on defense. Watson and Cook both played over 850 snaps for more than 82% of the time the defense was on the field. The Chiefs traded up in the draft to get LSU's Mansoor Delane to be their next shut-down cornerback and signed Alohi Gillman to shore up the safety position for years to come. Early looks at Delane indicate potential greatness, but nothing empirical can be analyzed until this Monday at Arrowhead.

I'm not convinced that Denver's offense, which ranked 14th in points scored per game last year, will look that impressive when facing off with a presumably improved Chiefs defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points per game last season. I expect Mahomes to outshine Bo Nix, but I expect both teams' defenses to be more up-to-speed than the offenses in Week 1. Denver's defense is largely the same as the elite unit from last year, but I believe the most important athlete in Kansas City's history is about to put the whole football world on notice. This version of Mahomes has wisdom accrued from years of greatness plus a hunger to prove himself as the best in the world all over again. If you think the secondary will still be strong, and you think the Chiefs will apply pressure up the middle with Chris Jones and Peter Woods, which I do, then Kansas City should prevail on their home turf Monday night. 

More importantly, if the defense still looks strong after the aforementioned changes, then the Chiefs have a high likelihood of earning a playoff berth. Struggles from that defense, though, could waste another year of Mahomes' prime. 10 of the Chiefs' regular season games will be played against an opponent that Vegas oddsmakers expected to have a winning record this season (teams with an over/under for regular-season wins at or above 9.5). Many of these tough games take place away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium, making them even more challenging. KC must travel to Seattle, Buffalo, Denver, Cincinnati and twice to Los Angeles, where they'll face both the Rams and Chargers.

I think teams that are presumably playoff-caliber like Baltimore, Buffalo, New England and the recently improved Bengals will make it difficult to reach the playoffs with a 10-7 record. I'm predicting all those teams - plus the Chiefs - to win at least 11 games this season. That means that losing to any of the subpar opponents on the schedule like Arizona, Miami, Vegas or the Jets could doom Kansas City to another year of relative irrelevance. Beating those opponents should be almost automatic, while beating high-quality opposition will require a defense that's at least average, and I think Kansas City can accomplish that. I'm picking the Chiefs to win 11 regular-season games and reach the playoffs, thanks in part to a gritty 20-16 victory over Denver in Week 1.