Chiefs-Chargers Rivalry Renewed While KC Tries to Keep Hope Alive

Last week's miserable defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans resulted in yet another ugly stat line for the most important player in Kansas City Chiefs history. Patrick Mahomes finished that sad day with a 19.8 Passer Rating. He's gone two weeks now without a Rating reaching 30. This sent me searching through his career Ratings and QBR's for each season, and just a quick look feels revealing.

The first thing I noticed was just how little Passer Rating and QBR seem to agree. If you only trust Passer Rating, Mahomes has been a mediocre QB more years than not. That clearly means you should absolutely not do that. His current Rating for this season is 91.2, which ranks 16th in the NFL. That's below the standard he sets, but it's remarkably similar to last season's Rating of 93.5, which ranked 17th. He also ranked 14th in Rating in 2023 with a 92.6. 

That data alone would indicate the presence of a consistently mediocre signal-caller, but ESPN's QBR algorithm disagrees. Patrick's QBR ranks 4th in the league right now. He finished at 8th over the last two seasons. That brings us to 2022, when a new, disturbing pattern emerges.

Mahomes was awesome in 2022 and 2020, and every measurable agrees with that. 2021 showed yet more disparity between Rating and QBR, when Mahomes was 15th in Rating and 5th in QBR. That season, however, is the only time in this amazing stretch from 2018 to 2022 that Mahomes did not finish a season ranked top-seven in both categories. Most of this production came with freakishly athletic receiver Tyreek Hill on the team and Eric Bieniemy coordinating the offense. Mahomes' incredible 2022 campaign happened without Tyreek.

Bienemy is currently the running backs coach for the Chicago Bears. The Bears average 152.6 rushing yards a game this season. They have the most potent running game in their conference and perhaps in the league. What a perfect compliment to Patrick that would be. For now, though, the questions about next season stay on the back-burner as long as KC has hope for a playoff berth in 2025. That all depends on KC's ability to overcome one of the league's strongest defenses when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead today.

The Chargers defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed. They've tallied up more interceptions than any team aside from the Chicago Bears. The offense has been mostly average this season, thanks in part to numerous injuries to key parts of their offensive line, but they still rank 9th in rushing yards per game. Surprisingly, the highly talented Justin Herbert has the potential every week to be the team's biggest problem. He's even the reason I'm picking the Chiefs this week.

Despite having similar overall turnover differentials, with the Chargers at +1 and KC at -1, Herbert is the biggest liability L.A will have on the field today. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith have thrown more than Herbert's 11 interceptions this season. The Chargers have a few impressive pelts on the wall after beating the Chiefs in Week 1 in Brazil, Denver in Week 3 and Philly in overtime last week, but they also suffered some embarrassing losses. Defeats at the hands of the Giants and Commanders, and double-digit defeats when facing Jacksonville and Indy all included at least one Justin Herbert interception. I'm predicting at least one more pick from Herbert as KC keeps the embers of hope warm by beating the Chargers 22-19.

Seattle's Struggles, KC's Concerns Collide On Cold Christmas Eve

I knew the Seattle Seahawks were 6-3 at one point, and I knew Geno Smith kept showing up next to names like Mahomes and Allen when I looked at the QB stats each week. This made me incorrectly assume Seattle was decent, if not pretty damn good, until looking into it further. The Seahawks have played 14 games so far this season, and somehow, only four of those were against teams who now have winning records. Half of them are the San Francisco 49ers. Only two of their seven victories came against teams who currently have winning records. They've lost four of their last five, including dropping games to the Bucs, Raiders and Panthers. 

Last week, Seattle suffered a predictable Thursday night defeat at the hands of the impressive San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs, meanwhile, must feel at least a little humbled after back-to-back weeks of sub-par performances against sub-par opponents. KC barely lost to the Bills and Bengals, but they barely avoided losing to the Broncos and Texans. This leaves their identity somewhat blurred at the moment, but the identity of their franchise QB should never be doubted.

Patrick Mahomes' average for passing yards in a game this season is now a full 34 yards higher than #2 in the league, Justin Herbert. Eight other quarterbacks are within 34 yards of Herbert's average. Maybe saying that Bears quarterback Justin Fields is half the quarterback Mahomes is sounds insulting, but it's actually statistically undeniable right now. It seems almost cruel to put these stats together in a sentence, but KC's QB has racked up more than twice as many passing yards per game and touchdown passes as Chicago's QB.

Comparing Fields and Mahomes feels unfair, but comparing KC's mega-star to Geno seems more reasonable. Unfortunately for Smith and the Seahawks, Geno hasn't compiled a QBR above 66 over the last five weeks. Mahomes hasn't compiled a QBR below that over the last eight weeks. That being said, Geno's season numbers still look solid, and he only plays on one side of the football. He deserves only a small portion of the blame for the Seahawks' recent problems.

Seattle scores the seventh-most points per game in the NFL, and their offense didn't exactly disappear over this recent rough patch. Over the last five games, the Seahawks average 22.8 points per game, which falls between the average points per game of the 12th- and 13th-best scoring offenses in football. Seattle's defense deserves scrutiny for the team's inability to win lately. On the season, the Seahawks give up the league's fourth-most points per game. Over the last five games, they've given up an average of 27 points per game. That's worse than any current season total of any team in the NFL. A team cannot expect to win against good opponents with a defense struggling as much as this.

The Chiefs may not seem as trustworthy as they did before stumbling through the last few weeks, but Seattle's recent struggles looked inarguably worse. I know that's a hard thing for Chiefs Kingdom to hear after we almost watched KC lose to the Texans, but a simple glance at the standings proves it. A desperate Seahawks team led by a legit veteran QB could make Chiefs fans sweat for a second this Saturday, but Seattle's inability to limit Mahomes should be their downfall. I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for KC. I know the weather will be nasty, but hey, feeling that cold sucks just as much for the defense as it does for the offense.

Oh, and here's my holiday gift to all of you: Isiah Pacheco averages 80 yards on the ground over his last six games, ever since becoming a bigger factor in the Chiefs offense due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's injury. Where I'm betting, his over/under for rushing yards this Christmas Eve is at 71. Enjoy your holiday, and more importantly, enjoy your sports and your gambling.

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.