Chiefs-Chargers Rivalry Renewed While KC Tries to Keep Hope Alive

Last week's miserable defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans resulted in yet another ugly stat line for the most important player in Kansas City Chiefs history. Patrick Mahomes finished that sad day with a 19.8 Passer Rating. He's gone two weeks now without a Rating reaching 30. This sent me searching through his career Ratings and QBR's for each season, and just a quick look feels revealing.

The first thing I noticed was just how little Passer Rating and QBR seem to agree. If you only trust Passer Rating, Mahomes has been a mediocre QB more years than not. That clearly means you should absolutely not do that. His current Rating for this season is 91.2, which ranks 16th in the NFL. That's below the standard he sets, but it's remarkably similar to last season's Rating of 93.5, which ranked 17th. He also ranked 14th in Rating in 2023 with a 92.6. 

That data alone would indicate the presence of a consistently mediocre signal-caller, but ESPN's QBR algorithm disagrees. Patrick's QBR ranks 4th in the league right now. He finished at 8th over the last two seasons. That brings us to 2022, when a new, disturbing pattern emerges.

Mahomes was awesome in 2022 and 2020, and every measurable agrees with that. 2021 showed yet more disparity between Rating and QBR, when Mahomes was 15th in Rating and 5th in QBR. That season, however, is the only time in this amazing stretch from 2018 to 2022 that Mahomes did not finish a season ranked top-seven in both categories. Most of this production came with freakishly athletic receiver Tyreek Hill on the team and Eric Bieniemy coordinating the offense. Mahomes' incredible 2022 campaign happened without Tyreek.

Bienemy is currently the running backs coach for the Chicago Bears. The Bears average 152.6 rushing yards a game this season. They have the most potent running game in their conference and perhaps in the league. What a perfect compliment to Patrick that would be. For now, though, the questions about next season stay on the back-burner as long as KC has hope for a playoff berth in 2025. That all depends on KC's ability to overcome one of the league's strongest defenses when they face the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead today.

The Chargers defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed. They've tallied up more interceptions than any team aside from the Chicago Bears. The offense has been mostly average this season, thanks in part to numerous injuries to key parts of their offensive line, but they still rank 9th in rushing yards per game. Surprisingly, the highly talented Justin Herbert has the potential every week to be the team's biggest problem. He's even the reason I'm picking the Chiefs this week.

Despite having similar overall turnover differentials, with the Chargers at +1 and KC at -1, Herbert is the biggest liability L.A will have on the field today. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith have thrown more than Herbert's 11 interceptions this season. The Chargers have a few impressive pelts on the wall after beating the Chiefs in Week 1 in Brazil, Denver in Week 3 and Philly in overtime last week, but they also suffered some embarrassing losses. Defeats at the hands of the Giants and Commanders, and double-digit defeats when facing Jacksonville and Indy all included at least one Justin Herbert interception. I'm predicting at least one more pick from Herbert as KC keeps the embers of hope warm by beating the Chargers 22-19.

Can KC's Superb Secondary Disrupt Dangerous Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend?

A uniquely frigid setting for history-making football awaits the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium tonight. Much digital ink was spilled detailing the historically cold temperatures for this Wild Card Weekend in KC, but credit goes to @SBBreakers for the tweets of the week. The original has all the details, but the main takeaways are that the Mahomes-era Chiefs are undefeated in weather below 18 degrees, and Miami is winless in their 11 games played in temperatures below 40 degrees since 2017. That's bad news for a Dolphins team that already looked pedestrian facing the Chiefs in Germany a couple months ago. I can't remember the exact temperature in Frankfurt that day, but I really don't think the wind chill was expected to dip below -15 like it will in KC tonight.

The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 that day, and numerous Dolphins currently dealing with injuries helped Miami keep that game close. Bradley Chubb strip-sacked Patrick Mahomes for a fumble on a crucial third down. Chubb's out for the season. Xavien Howard helped Miami's secondary disrupt KC's passing offense so much that Chiefs tight end Noah Gray led his team in receiving yards with 34. Howard is also unavailable for tonight's game. Miami's leading rusher in that mid-season game, Raheem Mostert, is also struggling with a knee injury that left him limited in participation in his latest practice.

One impact player on Miami's offense that should enter today's game with relatively sound health is former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, who had 63 receiving yards and a key fumble in the aforementioned November meeting with Kansas City. He's actually done more damage to KC's defense than most other elite receivers this season. The Chiefs held Philly's A.J. Brown to one catch for eight receiving yards, Buffalo's Stefon Diggs to four catches for 24 and Bengal Ja'Marr Chase to 3 for 41. The numbers, and Trent McDuffie being named as a first team All-Pro, prove that the Chiefs can shut down the best weapons from any passing offense in football. 

Another key difference between today's Miami-KC matchup and the last one is the availability of Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton. The nasty weather won't help Miami's passing attack, and it will likely lead to more plays designed to safely get Tyreek the ball with room to run. In moments like this, on jet sweeps and bubble screens and whatnot, the opposing defense relies heavily on their linebackers to get to the right spot and make timely tackles. This is Nick Bolton's forte. Having him healthy today, when circumstances dictate that the opponent's offensive game plan be built to attack his position, is a highly underrated advantage for Kansas City. With his help, the Chiefs only need to perform up to their normal standard and avoid crucial mistakes in order to secure the victory tonight.

Those crucial mistakes, however, weren't so easy to avoid in the regular season. KC finished the season tied for the fourth-worst turnover differential and tied for the most offensive holding penalties in the NFL this season. Four different teams did not surpass the eight holding penalties drawn solely by Chiefs left tackle Jawaan Taylor. These kinds of things leave the door open for disappointment. I still think the Chiefs can overcome them, though. I'm predicting a memorable and gritty 20-13 victory for KC.

Potential MVPs Meet Overseas as KC, Miami Face Off in Frankfurt

8:30 AM Central Time feels way too damn early for meaningful NFL football. Can't we just make the Europeans go to their stadium when it's proper football-time here in the country that we all know matters the most? The 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs face the 6-2 Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany at what seems like the crack of dawn. The Dolphins headed across the Pacific with well-earned confidence after beating three of their last four opponents by at least two touchdowns. The vibes for the Chiefs right now feel way, way different.

Kansas City just lost an ugly game to the Denver Broncos, thanks in large part to turning over the ball five times and finishing the game with a -4 turnover differential. Throughout the history of the NFL, teams win 2.6% of games when losing the turnover battle by four or more. Patrick Mahomes finished a game without a touchdown pass for the first time since 2021. The Chiefs haven't turned the ball over more than three times since October of '21. They haven't turned the ball over five times since that infamous 54-51 loss to the L.A Rams on November 19th, 2018.

I trust KC to at least limit the problems that plagued them last week when they face off with Miami today. The Chiefs haven't lost consecutive games since the second and third week of the '21 season. It's highly unlikely that we see Mahomes post another QBR anywhere close to his 42.5 from last week's stinker at Mile-High. Despite my very reasonable expectations of a cleaner game from the Chiefs, it's important to recognize that the Dolphins are a vastly more dangerous team than the Broncos. KC had reason to fear the Dolphins before losing Nick Bolton and finishing practice for the week without knowing Willie Gay's status for the game. Weaknesses based on those health issues, as well as the return of elite Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey, amplified Chiefs Kingdom's sense of concern surrounding this game.

As fans, we already have the aforementioned reasons to worry, and I haven't even talked about the two potential league MVP's on the Dolphins roster yet. Tyreek Hill is on pace for one of the greatest seasons ever for a wide receiver. His resume for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award has become more and more of a talking point for fans worldwide as he gets deeper into the regular season with outstanding performances nearly every week. The guy passing to him also deserves credit for proving, at least to this point, that he is also worthy of being called elite. Tua Tagovailoa is among the three likeliest players to win MVP this year according to all seven sports-books measured by VegasInsider.com's recent report. Just like with the MVP betting odds, Mahomes and Tua both rank between first and third league-wide in passing yards, touchdown passes and total QBR this season. 

KC's secondary should give them the advantage as two of the best QB's in football face off in Frankfurt today. The Chiefs secondary continues to prove itself as one of the NFL's best, and I believe (and hope) that they'll be the difference-makers. L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid in particular are among the league's most efficient at stopping opposing wide receivers. The aforementioned Dolphins corner Jalen Ramsey is still capable of being the league's absolute best at his position, but Miami's secondary as a whole has been unimpressive. KC's secondary holds their opponents to only 176.1 passing yards per game this season - the second-lowest average in football. The Dolphins' average of 221.5 passing yards allowed per game ranks 16th in that category.

I expect the Chiefs to limit their mistakes this week and play more like the prolific passing team we know they can be. Just remember that if the Chiefs can limit themselves to one Mahomes interception, one Chiefs receiver fumble after completing a catch and one Mecole Hardman muffed punt, they would still only suffer 60% of the self-inflicted damage they burdened themselves with last week. That game was clearly an improbably disaster that should not decide how the Chiefs are perceived moving forward. If this dynasty of a team can't earn a fan's trust, no team can.

While the Chiefs have earned the trust of the Kingdom, 'phins fans still cannot be so sure. Miami has played two teams that currently have winning records and been comfortably handled by both of them. Their wins all came against teams who have losing records at this point of the season and look destined for a top-five pick in next year's draft. Tyreek may scare the hell out of his former fans in KC today, but I'm predicting a thrilling 28-27 victory for the Chiefs.

Can KC's AFC Supremacy Continue?

The losers of the next Chiefs game we watch will end their season devastated, regardless of how much they achieved and contrary to what they may tell the media. The winners worry only about their warm-weather packing plans, as the calm California climate of Inglewood's SoFi Stadium awaits them in two short weeks. One more Kansas City Chiefs victory is all it takes to earn them a spot in the Super Bowl. Only Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals stand in Kansas City's way. This game's got all the makings of yet another classic this afternoon, but reaching the levels of drama from last week's game would be damn difficult.

KC cannot keep giving up 36 points per playoff game, but Chiefs Kingdom is ecstatic after Kansas City outdueled the Buffalo Bills last week. Kansas City's defense focused on limiting the impact of their opponents' best wide receiver. Consequently, Stefon Diggs only caught three passes for seven yards. Implementing that same strategy today seems logical when we look back at the last time these teams faced off. Ja'Marr Chase destroyed KC's defense for over 250 receiving yards and three touchdowns only four weeks ago. Limiting the chances of that happening again was undoubtedly on Steve Spagnuolo's mind a lot this week.

Buffalo's Gabriel Davis became a legend by racking up four touchdown catches and over 200 yards receiving last Sunday, but all that still didn't stop the Chiefs from getting the job done. I believe KC can and will limit Chase, even if it means someone else goes crazy in his stead. Whether that's Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd or some dark-horse like Gabriel Davis is irrelevant as long as key Chiefs on offense continue to improve their already-impressive playoff resumes. 

Future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce caught 8 for 96 and a game-winning score last week. That was the first playoff game he didn't finish with over 100 receiving yards since the Chiefs faced Tampa in the Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill has more ups and downs relative to the remarkably consistent Kelce, but Hill still averages over 110 receiving yards over his last six playoff games. The most obvious piece to the playoff success puzzle for this Chiefs offense is its legendary signal-caller.

Patrick Mahomes now has an 8-2 playoff record in which he completes over 66% of his passes with a 25/5 touchdown/interception rate. Mahomes has avoided throwing a pick in seven of his ten playoff appearances. Joe Shiesty looks legit in this exciting start to his playoff career, but nobody short of Joe Montana would make Mahomes the underdog in this moment. I don't even believe that Joe could outduel Mahomes right now.

That being said, Burrow gives the Bengals a puncher's chance with big-play potential similar to what the Kingdom regularly witnesses in Kansas City. Cincy ranks fifth league-wide in pass plays of 20+ yards, and Mahomes' offense is sixth. Joe is tied for second place with his 15 passes of 40+ yards, and Patrick is again right there with him at third place with 11. Not everything about their style of play is so similar, however.

Burrow led the league in taking sacks in the regular season. He took 51, while Mahomes was only sacked 28 times. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen were sacked fewer times while still playing in all 17 regular season games. Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the rest of KC's defense should have a better chance bothering Burrow than the Bengals have of bringing down Mahomes. KC's defense ranks 8th or higher in QB hurries per dropback, pressures per dropback and knockdowns per pass attempt.

The defense doesn't need to completely shut down this recently dominant Bengals offense to give the Chiefs a chance today. After all, giving up 36 points apparently works out just fine as long as they leave about 13 seconds on the clock. If KC can hit pay-dirt with more frequency than Burrow's Bengals today, the Chiefs will once again claim the trophy that bears their maker's name. I'm predicting a thrilling 37-31 victory for Kansas City.

Divisional Drama Deepened by Denver's Dominant Defense

The resurgent Kansas City Chiefs face off with the resilient Denver Broncos at Arrowhead tonight in the first of three straight intra-division games on the Chiefs' schedule. KC's recent success made them frontrunners for winning the AFC West, but a loss tonight could once again flip this division on its head. Many may underestimate these 6-5 Broncos, but Denver's point differential this season is exactly one point higher than the Chiefs' +31. What's keeping this previously unheralded Broncos team in the mix?

Defense is how Denver achieved consistent success this season. Their passing yards and total yards allowed per game rank in the top ten league-wide. Their points allowed per game ranks third behind only the Pats and Bills, but the vast majority of offenses Denver faced so far range from average to awful. The Broncos limited the Dallas Cowboys to 16 points in Week 9, but the Cowboys were without brick wall left tackle Tyron Smith that day. Aside from Dallas, the highest-scoring offense Denver has faced is the Philadelphia Eagles, whose 25.3 points per game ranks 13th in the NFL. KC scores a similar 25.5 points per game this year, which ranks ninth.

The Chiefs undoubtedly enter this game with momentum, but the offense has still failed to meet expectations. Through their current four-game winning streak, Kansas City only scored over 20 points once. Denver excels in dropping back two safeties and limiting big plays, which is exactly how the rest of the league has stalled KC's offense all season long. Impressive rookie cornerback Pat Surtain II will also make today difficult for Tyreek Hill - the Chiefs' key deep threat. This could keep tonight's game closer than Vegas oddsmakers predict.

Despite Denver's imposing defense, I expect the Chiefs to prevail tonight. The bye week gives Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes an extra week to scheme up something to counter teams dropping back two safeties. We should see an improvement from Kansas City's offense because of this, but one extra week won't solve all their struggles. I predict an ugly 23-17 victory for Kansas City.

Dak's Dominant Dallas Cowboys Come to KC

Things changed quickly in the AFC West last week after the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs overpowered the Las Vegas Raiders 41-14 in Vegas. Kansas City now leads the division and seems to be hitting their stride in every facet of the game. The Chiefs move on to face the Dallas Cowboys today in a possible Super Bowl preview. KC must continue this improvement while also avoiding major mistakes in order to keep up their winning ways this evening.

Patrick Mahomes successfully moving the ball with superstars and role-players, alike was the key to claiming a comfortable victory last Sunday. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill combined for 15 catches, 202 yards and two touchdowns, but Mahomes and Andy Reid spread the wealth. Mahomes threw touchdowns to four different Chiefs, and four different Chiefs ended the day with at least four receptions. Especially impressive was Darrel Williams' nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown.

KC can outscore Dak Prescott's offense today if they continue this strategy while keeping the ball out of the hands of Trevon Diggs. He leads the league with eight picks and ranks second with 13 pass deflections. It's very possible Andy Reid schemes the offense around this guy to limit his game-wrecking potential, but other gifted coaches have tried to do the same and failed.

Turnovers are perhaps a boring topic, but it's important to know that Diggs has helped his team to the NFL's 7th-best turnover differential. Even after a game with no interceptions by Mahomes and a Daniel Sorensen pick, the Chiefs still rank 29th in turnover differential. If KC just keeps the differential in today's game even, they should be able to beat one of the truly elite teams in football right now. It's time for the Chiefs to take care of business against a Super Bowl contender with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB under center. I'm predicting an exciting 34-31 victory for Kansas City.

How Will Chiefs Respond to Early Adversity?

It took several turnovers and game-changing penalties to get it done, but our Kansas City Chiefs reacted to their disappointing defeat in Baltimore with a disappointing defeat at Arrowhead. Few expected this. Chiefs Kingdom is shaken. The space between games felt painfully long this week. Ugly turnovers at inopportune moments cost the Chiefs two out of their first three games as they faced off with some of the AFC's best, but today will be different. Today, KC faces off with a 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles team led by a talented young quarterback experiencing significant growing pains in an organization with no expectations of reaching the playoffs this year.

It's no surprise that KC is a big favorite today, but if the Chiefs let this week's game stay interesting for long, the success-hungry fans of Kansas City will consider it an underperformance. Patrick Mahomes and a motivated Chiefs team should finish today with their biggest margin of victory of the season so far, and maybe their biggest of the entire year. Philly just lost to the Dallas Cowboys by 20, as Dak Prescott completed over 80% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. Chiefs deep threat maestro Tyreek Hill only caught five passes last week and three the week before. I expect his impact on this game to be bigger than it was in these last two weeks, and I expect the Chiefs to overwhelm the Eagles with their superior offensive firepower.

What could turn this potential blowout into another nail-biter, or worse, another heart-breaking L for the Chiefs? The obvious answer is turnovers, which can ruin even the most well-crafted gameplan, but what else? KC's run defense is bad right now, and Jalen Hurts' running ability presents problems for bad run defenses. The Chiefs defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game and the second-most points per game league-wide. It's worth noting once again, though, that the Chiefs experienced these struggles while facing three of the best teams the AFC has to offer. Philly has upside, but they're objectively the worst team on paper that Kansas City has faced so far this season. Aside from the technical reasons why the Chiefs are the superior team taking the field today, there is another, more philosophical advantage that KC brings to today's meeting.

A team playing for their chance to achieve greatness becomes hungry and dangerous after facing early-season adversity. KC still has every reason to believe they can earn a bye week in the playoffs when they see the underwhelming teams currently atop the standings. The AFC's three teams with three wins are the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals. I don't believe that any of these teams that failed to finish last season with winning records will threaten the Chiefs' chances at the top playoff seed this season. Dropping to 1-3 would make reclaiming the #1 seed highly unlikely, while climbing to 2-2 keeps the chase for the bye week alive and well. This simple fact will motivate everyone in the Chiefs organization.

I'm predicting a 37-20 victory for our Chiefs today as they try to get mentally healthy before facing the Buffalo Bills next Sunday night. A Kansas City team led by Andy Reid won't overlook the Eagles; they'll simply execute their game-plan effectively enough to use Philly as their punching bag after two weeks of serious frustration.

Patriots Provide KC A Key Test Despite Cam Newton's Absence

Our Kansas City Chiefs overcame their presumed competition for the conference crown last week with relative ease, and tonight they face off against a ghost of their peculiar past. The New England Patriots won't be fully operational today without Cam Newton leading the offense, but could Bill Belichick and a defense that still commands respect stun the football world with an upset over our Chiefs? If so, how?

KC could increase New England's odds and increase the heart-rates of fans like me by stumbling out of the gates, and they've been susceptible to that lately. After finishing in the top ten in 1st quarter scoring during their championship campaign, the Chiefs entered Week 4 ranking second-to-last in the NFL with 2.2 first quarter points per game this season. New England's defense has allowed only 3.3 points to opponents in the 1st quarter this season, and that can only be bested by six defenses in football.

A slow start for KC could save the Pats from an early slaughter, and their defenses excels at disrupting opponents' short-to-intermediate passing game. It's almost like Bill looked at what his own team accomplishes with the same offensive strategy and said, "don't let that happen to my defense." Today will provide us with a strength-on-strength matchup featuring perhaps the two best football minds in the game. The intrigue of such a meeting of the minds makes me even more bummed that we don't get to see how this new Pats squad looks with Cam healthy.

Stats indicate that Patrick Mahomes is averaging shorter, quicker passes this season, which may sound like a let-down to some fans in the Kingdom. However, there's a big, beautiful reason why football savant Andy Reid utilized this change in strategy, and his multi-faceted reasoning further exemplifies his unique savvy.

First, it's important to note that this short-pass strategy gives defenses the old Muhammad Ali "okey-doke" before delivering some key knockouts by landing long-pass haymakers, kinda like how KC just victimized the highly-touted Baltimore Ravens. It also makes the Chiefs' newest weapon more unpredictable, as Clyde Edwards-Hellaire could damage a defense equally via run or reception. Clyde is key to this change because he completes Kansas City's total coverage of the field with their offense. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already stretch opposing defenses to their limits, but now the new #25 is here to turn "spread the field" into a major understatement. If he proves to be worthy of a first-round pick, it's gonna feel like cheating.

I don't think the Pats can stop the Chiefs when Cam is healthy, and part of me hopes that's some juicy foreshadowing, but that means my prediction for today isn't in doubt. I think our Chiefs win a comfy 34-17 game while I imagine Bill wringing his hands like a comic book villain and calculating his strategy for next time...

Mahomes Makes Chiefs Championship Favorites

Are you ready for the most important football game of your life, Chiefs Kingdom? I thought the extra week between games would be unbearable, but it turned out to be euphoric. Part of me wants it to never end. I really will miss having the world's eyes on this team we all hold so close to our hearts. I may not be emotionally ready for all this, but Patrick Mahomes is, and he'll be the difference maker today. The San Francisco 49ers are a more complete team with a stout defense and a frighteningly effecting running game. The most important player in Chiefs franchise history faces another seriously daunting test, but can his talent, wit and will bring our Chiefs a championship?

You've probably heard about the five first-round picks that make up the the Niners' defensive line. You probably know Richard Sherman, future Hall of Famer defensive back and perennial dream-killer for young NFL quarterbacks. You probably remember a certain edge rusher named Dee Ford, too. The effectiveness of San Fran's defense as a whole should not be understated, but their job today is to stop a guy who was seemingly built in a video game to poke holes in great defenses. Having the best deep threat and the best receiving tight end in the universe doesn't hurt.

If San Fran double-teams Tyreek, then Travis Kelce will gouge the admittedly solid second layer of that defense. Double-team Travis, and the Chiefs will have an excellent route-runner in Tyreek Hill ready to find small spaces in San Francisco's zone-heavy defense. Double-team both of these superstar passing targets and watch Mahomes scramble for big gains while distributing to Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. The pick-your-poison line about multifaceted offenses is cliche, but it fits this team to a T.

The tenacity and poise of San Fran's defense limits the amount of big plays made by every team they face. Patrick is just too good, however, at making something magical happen when a play breaks down or must be extended. These kind of matchups are how truly epic sports moments are born. Mahomes needs to be great to give the Chiefs a chance at a championship, but Chiefs Kingdom knows that nobody in this world is more capable of such greatness.

Kansas City already overcame that 24-point playoff deficit against the Texans. They already overcame the prototypical underdog and ended the Cinderella story for a Titans team which also had the consummate Boogeyman at running back. This 49ers team should concern us as Chiefs fans, but now the Kingdom and the team itself is above fearing any team in football. San Francisco could make our hearts pound out of our chests today by looking really good, but the Kingdom knows that Patrick Mahomes is ready to be great. This is his league now. This is his time.

Enjoy every moment of this, Chiefs Kingdom. Remember how much it means to Andy Reid and Andy Reid's entire family and every person who ever played for Andy or went to the same school as Andy or sold Andy a cheeseburger. Remember how great sports can feel when we're all in this together. Hug the people who love football and love you. This is our time, too. Make the most of it.


Doug LaCerte still neglects his Twitter and Facebook, but he appreciates every member of The Kingdom experiencing this moment with him.

Will KC's Defense Look Better Against Rival Raiders In Week 2?

An intriguing challenge for our Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 seemingly became less intriguing when Nick Foles left the game and seemingly erased the Jacksonville Jaguars' realistic hopes for victory. However, rookie backup QB Gardner Minshew completed his first 13 pass attempts and the Jags finished the day with 428 total yards. a . Minshew was the 2018 PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year, and his story is legit, so perhaps he's better than many in Chiefs Kingdom had presumed (myself included). Still, members of that new Chiefs defense must've been shaking their heads after allowing an unheralded sixth-round pick to earn a 122.5 Quarterback Rating.

Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr earned a 121 Quarterback Rating against the Denver Broncos last week. Even though I call him mean nicknames for my own amusement on a regular basis, Carr is a veteran QB who just led his squad to a win over a division rival with a solid defense. His offensive line also stopped the intimidating duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb and the rest of the Denver D from sacking Carr a single time. Chiefs Kingdom is justifiably scared about both the secondary and the edge rushing capability of this freshly rebuilt KC defense, so this looks like another setup for a fitting test.

My focus is clearly on the defensive side of the ball for the next chapter of this recently lopsided  rivalry because it's still easy to be confident about KC's offense. Tyreek Hill is tough to replace, but the Chiefs just so happened to spend their first-round pick with the motive of replacing Tyreek Hill for several weeks. This should somewhat ease the minds of Chiefs fans everywhere, as we can once again be confident about rolling into Oakland with a high-octane offense. Add the Jonathan Abram injury to the mix, and we've got the makings for Mahomes Magic and a lot of points on the board. My only concern would be keeping Patrick safe from Clelin Ferrell and Company. Let's see how the Mahomes-Mecole Connection feels, and let's see how KC's defense bounces back from their uninspiring start to the season.

Doug LaCerte is currently too busy looking at Gardner Minshew memes to care about Twitter or Facebook.

Steelers Can't Scare KC

My confidence in the Kansas City Chiefs winning at Arrowhead Stadium tonight grows as I look further into the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2016 schedule. Sure, the Steelers won their last seven games in the regular season, but two of those wins were against the Cleveland Browns, and only one was against a 2016 playoff team. The only playoff teams Pittsburgh beat this season were the Chiefs and the New York Giants – a Wild Card team that lost by 25 in the first round of the playoffs. That is the unabridged list of Pittsburgh's impressive regular season wins. Seriously, the Steelers managed to win just three games against winning teams. They beat the 8-7-1 Washington Redskins in Week 1, then they beat up the Chiefs in Week 4 and defeated the Giants in early December. That’s it. Embarrassing KC was the high-point of Pittsburgh's regular season.

By the way, if we want to put any stock in that Week 4 Chiefs loss, when Pittsburgh crushed KC 43-14, then we must do the same with Pittsburgh's 34-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. The Eagles went on to claim a losing record and last place in their division this season, while KC only lost games against winning teams. We can forget those fluky failures in the early season for both teams, as the mentality and makeup of both squads is undoubtedly different now that it’s playoff-time.

After that win against KC and an easy victory over the Jets, the Steelers faced the toughest stretch of their schedule. They needed to travel to Miami to face the Dolphins, and then head back home to play the New England Patriots. Then, they traveled to Baltimore for a heated rivalry game, and then finally hosted the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Pittsburgh lost by 15 in Miami, lost to the Pats by 11 at Heinz Field, lost by a touchdown in Baltimore and lost 35-30 to Dallas. When the Steelers faced consecutive legit opponents, they started losing like losing was cool. When KC faced their toughest stretch of this year’s schedule – facing Denver, Atlanta and Oakland in consecutive weeks – the Chiefs managed to win every game.

When you look at the good teams KC already defeated this year, it seems clear that beating the Steelers is possible for the 2016 Chiefs. This team already played a prolific offense in the Atlanta Falcons, and KC limited that offense just enough to sneak away with a win in the Georgia Dome. The Chiefs already played three games against teams with top-3 sacks totals this year, and neither the Broncos nor the Panthers could stop KC from achieving victory. The Chiefs have seen defending Super Bowl champs, current Super Bowl contenders and numerous elite offenses, and KC proved they could persevere every time.

That should scare fans in the Steel City, but it’s the balance of this Pittsburgh team that should scare fans in Chiefs Kingdom. Kansas City must limit the production of the league’s best wide receiver, arguably its best running back and one of NFL history’s most underrated QBs. Eric Berry's ability to jump up a level and act like an extra linebacker on running plays makes his effectiveness against Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell critical to KC's success. The snaps when Antonio Brown lines up against Marcus Peters won’t terrify me, but every snap when it’s Brown on Steven Nelson will get hearts racing in Kansas City tonight.

Whoever runs the ball with more success will most likely win the game (depending on turnovers, as usual.) While we’ve often discussed KC’s struggles with stopping solid running backs this year, Pittsburgh isn’t the run-stuffing juggernaut they used to be, either. The Steelers D ranks 13^th in rushing yards allowed per game this year, and the Chiefs allowed a frighteningly high 121.1 rushing yards per game, which is better than only six teams in the NFL. No team that allowed a higher average than KC reached the playoffs.

That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, but KC’s offense will attempt to limit Pittsburgh’s offense simply by keeping them off the field. That means winning the time of possession battle, and that means the Chiefs must also run the ball successfully to keep this game close. This is why Spencer Ware’s play tonight is so integral to how this game plays out at Arrowhead.

Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 127 yards and two TDs to LeGarrette Blount in their loss to New England, not to mention 204 yards and two TDs to Miami’s Jay Ajayi. Cowboys’ rookie sensation Ezekiel Elliot also pounded Pittsburgh for 114 yards and two TDs. Unfortunately, Spencer Ware isn’t experiencing the kind of success we’re seeing from Zeke or Ajayi, but this bye week gives the Kingdom reasons to believe he’ll play well tonight. Andy Reid gets an extra week to prepare and an extra game to analyze, while Ware’s body enjoys an extra week of rest. If early-2016 Spencer Ware shows up to play tonight, he becomes a crucial component to KC’s game-plan. Even without a solid night from Ware, a combination of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is tough for any team on the planet to defend.

We’ll have numerous Hall of Fame-level play-makers on the field at any given time tonight, which makes this a thrillingly unpredictable game. I can confidently predict a wet, raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd that’s hungry for greatness and thirsty for revenge. The Chiefs will survive a memorable mud-fight tonight by the score of 27-23, and my vocal chords will ache for a week.

Doug LaCerte occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook. 

3 Incredible Week 13 Performances, How to Beat Oakland in Week 14

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan pass to 81-A.Hooper is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-E.Berry intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

That's how it looks in the official scoring summary for last Sunday's game in the Georgia Dome, but the video takes us a step closer to understanding the uniquely grand moment Chiefs Kingdom just experienced. Let's take another step back and try, before moving on to Raider Hatin' time, to appreciate that historic moment, as well as others that made this last exhilarating KC win possible.

The Chiefs needed at least three incredible performances to claim their second-straight win over a playoff team in unlikely, nail-biting fashion. The first and most ESPN Films-worthy performance of the week came from Eric Berry. Upon returning to his home turf in Atlanta for the first time since traveling there for chemotherapy treatment, Berry changed the game with a pick-six moments before halftime and a late-game pick-two that stood as the Chiefs' one-point margin of victory.

Despite the purely poetic eight points put up by Berry, KC still needed help from their offense. Actually, the Chiefs are scoring about half their points via special teams and defense, but every team needs their offensive playmakers to make plays on occasion. A 418-yard, 28-point day for the Falcons offense made a solid game from KC's offense essential. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Alex Smith played perhaps his most complete game of the season.

The #2 and #3 incredible individual performances from last Sunday's win go hand-in-hand, as Smith and Travis Kelce spent the afternoon playing like the planet's best tight end-QB duo. Kelce caught eight of Alex's 21 completed passes and accounted for 140 of Smith's 270 passing yards. Criticism of KC's franchise QB has been so heavy, so recent and so justifiable that it makes his stellar performance last week feel almost surreal. Kelce's output, although impressive, looks much more believable, especially when measured by his recent success; this is his third-straight game with over 100 receiving yards. Tonight, in the bitter cold of a Kansas City winter that just arrived in earnest, short passes to Kelce could be the Chiefs' bread and butter.

This one could be ugly, but mostly for the right reasons. If you haven't heard, it's expected to be brutally cold at Arrowhead. Wind chill is expected to range anywhere from five to 15 degrees Fahrenheit for tonight's game. I'll just leave this tweet here...

Derek Carr in 3 road games in temps below 50
DEN '14 18/36 158 YDS 1/1
DEN '15 12/29 135 YDS 2/0
KC '15 21/33 194 YDS 1/1
52% CMP 4.96 Y/A

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) December 6, 2016

Okay, those cold-weather numbers come against two stout defensive teams in the Broncos and, you know, our Chiefs. With that in mind, I still don't know how well Carr or the vast majority of quarterbacks can fare in this certain context. It's tough to envision anybody playing well in a road game in the record-breakingly raucous Arrowhead Stadium in temperatures well below freezing against a 9-3 Chiefs team coming off back-to-back stunning, swag-inducing comeback victories over playoff contenders. He may still become the MVP, but Carr will be an underdog at Arrowhead tonight.

The chilly weather could limit both team's passing attacks, but it won't make stopping the run any easier on Kansas City. Oakland enters Week 14 with the NFL's seventh-highest average for rushing yards per game. This is the highest-ranked running game on KC's regular season schedule. Oakland's defense should see a lot of Spencer Ware, too, which means a constantly running clock will limit snaps and make this more of a lower-scoring affair than if it were played in Oakland today.

Unpredictable play from Kansas City's offense also helps to make this game, well, unpredictable. After three weeks of scoring less against their opponent than the average points allowed by that opponent, KC scored more than that average in their last two games. It's hard to know which Alex Smith will show up tonight, but he and the rest of the offense seem to be trending in the right direction, especially with Jeremy Maclin now finally healthy enough to play.

I don't know if it'll be another timely interception from KC's secondary, a game-changing feat of athleticism from Tyreek Hill or a "welcome back, J-Mac" touchdown that will seal the victory for our Chiefs, but I still predict them to win a gritty nail-biter, 23-17. I really hope I can keep this as my desktop background for a while longer.

Doug LaCerte mocks the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he still uses Facebook.

3 Ways to Avoid Losing in Week 9

Our Kansas City Chiefs passed the halfway point of their schedule with a commanding victory last week, and the Vegas books expect another win for KC today. The Jacksonville Jaguars don't incite fear in many NFL locker rooms, so this week, the Chiefs' focus presumably rested less on how to win today's game, and more on how to simple not lose. KC just spent their week game-planning for a subpar opponent without their franchise QB or their two best running backs, but our Chiefs will once again have the advantage today at Arrowhead Stadium. A combination of KC's confidence and Jacksonville's ineptitude place’s the Chiefs’ focus less on winning today and more on letting their opponent lose.

The Jags beat the 1-5, Brian Hoyer-led Chicago Bears in a 17-16 Week 6 stinker. They also managed to beat the Indianapolis Colts by 3 points in Week 4. That is the unabridged list of victories claimed by Jacksonville this season. A disappointing loss lurks somewhere in Kansas City’s soft schedule. It's inevitable, but I don't think it's happening today. Here are three ways KC can avoid losing to the Jags:

1. Spread the ball around - Only seven NFL teams hold their opponent to fewer passing yards per game than Jacksonville. Despite that, only six NFL teams give up more points per game. We can expect conservatism from the Chiefs, but that won't necessarily translate to constantly running the ball. Without Spencer Ware or Jamaal Charles, KC will often defer to short passes and screens today. Successfully spreading the ball around to the healthy, trustworthy options will be what gives the Chiefs enough points to advance to Week 10 with another win. If Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley all finish the day with at least two catches, KC will have done enough offensively to once again avoid losing to an inferior team.

2. Put pressure on Blake Bortles - KC's +9 turnover ratio is second only to Minnesota's +11. Jacksonville ties with the Jets, who allowed 8 turnovers to KC in Week 3, for the league's worst ratio at -8. Only two QBs in the NFL have more interceptions than Bortles' 9, and he's been sacked 17 times through seven games. D.J. White is KC's only injured piece on defense, so the Chiefs should have fun attacking Bortles. If the emerging pass-rush for KC can raise their team average of 5.4 QB hurries per game, they'll limit Jacksonville's offense enough to ensure victory today.

3. Avoid disaster - The safest bet of the day may be for KC to improve that aforementioned turnover ratio, but it isn't necessary for a Chiefs win. The Jags defense will surely be on the lookout for moments to make a game-changing play, and they need more than just one to give themselves a chance to win. The Chiefs' only two losses came in the only two games when they turned the ball over twice or more. If the Jags can't force two or more turnovers today, you guessed it, Chiefs win, and we're on to Carolina with a kinda-sorta-tie for first place in the AFC West.

Doug LaCerte tries to use Twitter @DLaC67, and he's still on Facebook.