On this very special holiday, I'm reminded of everything that makes me thankful. I'm thankful for friends, for my family, for my wonderful pets, and I'm thankful the Chiefs didn't blow it last weekend and ruin their whole damn season. After KC survived that nailbiter on Sunday, the odds-makers now have the Chiefs as the third-likeliest team to win the Super Bowl and the betting favorite to win the AFC. That's one hell of an accomplishment for a team that seemed to be on the brink of missing the playoffs.
Andy Reid and his staff clearly thought highly of Indy's tandem of talented cornerbacks in former Chief Charvarius Ward and recently acquired Sauce Gardner. KC's offense approached that game with their most rush-heavy gameplan in several seasons. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 30 times while KC held the Colts' powerful offense to just 20 points. An even bigger surprise came from what running backs did not accomplish on Sunday, as KC held MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to under 60 rushing yards. That brings the Chiefs' average for rushing yards allowed per game down to 97.6. Every team with a lower average than KC is currently on pace to make the playoffs, aside from Houston, who is the currently the last team out and two spots ahead of the Chiefs.
Moving the ball on the ground successfully was especially important for KC last Sunday when Patrick Mahomes continued his unusual slump. It's safe to say Mahomes still hasn't been his best. He missed on some potentially big plays downfield, his QBR didn't reach 70, and his Passer Rating didn't reach 80. That's three games in a row of Mahomes not reaching a Rating of 80, which he's only done once, and not since mid-season of 2021. Despite this rare multi-game slump, Mahomes is still putting up some big numbers. Actually, both teams meeting in Dallas today have QB's who could be considered the most productive in their conference.
Patrick and Prescott have the two highest averages for passing yardage in the NFL. ESPN's QBR stat ranks Dak first league-wide and Mahomes third. Passer Rating doesn't think either guy is even a top-six quarterback because Passer Rating is kinda dumb, but I'll focus on that some other time. Prescott is playing an elite level of football that's keeping Dallas alive far longer than the Vegas odds-makers and pro analysts predicted. The Cowboys rank first in yards per game and fourth in points with Prescott at the helm.
The defense is their obvious flaw. Dallas allows the fourth-most total yards and the second-most total points in the NFL. They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in passing yards, resulting in the fourth-most total yards allowed per game. Only the Bengals allow their opponents to score more points. Maybe Dallas has some newfound confidence after defeating the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, but that was the first win they've collected over a good football team. Their only other victories came when facing the Giants, Jets, Commanders and Raiders.
I don't expect KC to take their foot off the pedal any time soon, especially not in front of the whole country on Turkey Day. I also don't expect the best football player ever born to keep struggling like he has lately. When the weather gets cold and the games matter most, Mahomes delivers. I'm predicting a 29-24 victory for Kansas City. I hope you get to enjoy today with people who love football and love you. Have a happy Turkey Day.
Showing posts with label kareem hunt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kareem hunt. Show all posts
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Chiefs Visit Jerry World for Tough Turkey Day Test
Saturday, December 21, 2024
Will Tough Texans Test Mahomes' Messed-Up Ankle?
Chiefs Kingdom is concerned about Patrick Mahomes. No, it's not because of his relatively low Passer Rating in 2024. The Kingdom is concerned about Mahomes - the most important athlete in Kansas City sports history - facing a strong Houston Texans pass-rush after an ankle injury. Houston ranks second league-wide in sacks with 45, and prior to last week's game, the Chiefs went through a three-game stretch when they allowed Mahomes to get sacked 13 times. Keeping Mahomes upright and healthy today will be key in keeping the 11-3 Buffalo Bills far away from the #1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.
A hamstring injury to newly acquired left tackle D.J. Humphries could make this difficult, but I'm not worried about KC overcoming this issue. Last week, the Chiefs responded to this injury by placing all-time great left guard Joe Thuney at the left tackle position. This resulted in exactly zero sacks allowed for Kansas City. Mahomes obviously still dealth with pressure to the point where his ankle got twisted up and hurt, but it doesn't take a major in mathematics to know that zero sacks is the best number of sacks to allow. The rest of the math indicates that KC will have a tough time scoring on this stout Texans defense regardless of Mahomes' ability to overcome this much-talked-about bum ankle.
Houston's defense ranks in the top ten in passing yards and points allowed this season. They rank fourth overall in total yards allowed. Their defense also excels at forcing turnovers. The Texans defense currently ranks second league-wide in interceptions and total takeaways with 19 and 28, respectively. All this is evidence that Kansas City will struggle to score a bunch, but even Texans fans would agree that the Chiefs don't need 30 points on the board to achieve victory today.
C.J. Stroud is experiencing a legitimate sophomore slump. His impressive rookie season Passer Rating of 100.8 has dropped to 89 this season. His future is still bright, but it's a clear and noteworthy drop-off in production. Stroud's passing yards-per-game average is down over 40 yards, he's nearly doubled his interception total, and he's thrown six fewer touchdown passes in this season's 14 games than in the 15 games he played in last season. With both QB's in today's game not living up to their lofty standards of excellence, it may be time for the running backs to shine.
Despite missing key pieces to their rushing attack throughout practically the entire season, the Chiefs have raised their rushing yards-per-game average from 104.9 last season to 112.1. With a healthy Isiah Pacheco and a Kareem Hunt with way more tread on the tires than almost anyone expected, that average can be improved upon over these last three games of the season. For that reason, I'm expecting KC to win a gritty 20-16 game today. KC has a nice two-game cushion over Buffalo in that race for the #1 seed, but the Bills play the Pats twice in three weeks with the Jets in-between. KC's chance to secure the playoffs bye week and also rest their starters in the final week of the regular season will be all the motivation they need to finish the regular season looking strong.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Can KC Bounce Back By Beating Buffalo?
Wow. That disaster of a game last week may have been the most disappointing moment in the Andy Reid Era of Chiefs football. The then-1-8 Giants team that beat KC didn't even play a particularly good game. New York gained 46 less yards than the Chiefs and possessed the ball for about six and a half fewer minutes. Orleans Darkwa led all Giants rushers with 74 yards over 20 carries. The Chiefs will face a better back and a much better team just moments from now at Arrowhead.
When the L.A Chargers beat Cleveland today, they'll have a .500 record. A Chiefs loss would put Rivers' squad just a game behind KC in the standings. It's not a "must-win" for the Chiefs today, but the outcome will significantly change the Kingdom's outlook on the playoffs this year. If my predictions prove to be accurate today, it should be a close one.
1. Andy Reid and Alex Smith drove this offense into a downward spiral of ill-conceived conservatism that culminated in last week's embarrassing defeat. Alex must get back to extending plays with his feet instead of ruining plays by prematurely scrambling out of the pocket. I'd rather see him take a few hard licks today than throw any more 2-yard passes on 3rd and long. I think he knows this, too.
Reid must allow this to happen with properly balanced play-calling that evenly incorporates his three big offensive weapons attacking all levels of the field. The offense's recent refusal to stretch the defense by consistently threatening them with deep passing is as well-documented as it is infuriating. I think Andy knows this, as well. I predict that the Chiefs will complete four or more passes for 20+ yards while Kareem Hunt returns to gaining triple-digit yardage.
2. I know I just really dogged KC for their conservatism, but that philosophy leads to a great turnover differential, and that always leads to success. The six teams who have thrown five or fewer picks all lead their divisions. To Taylor's credit, he's thrown only three picks over 279 pass attempts this year. He and Alex both have their reasons to avoid turning the ball over at all costs today. I predict a relatively clean game with two or less total turnovers.
3. The Chiefs haven't faced a running back as legit as LeSean McCoy since this whole decline started with a disgusting Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh. KC fans saw Le'Veon Bell dip and slide through the Chiefs defense for 179 yards on the ground. A performance like that from Shady today would spell doom for the Kingdom, so Chiefs DC Bob Sutton must win the chess match to win this game. He needs to dial up the right combination of solid run-stuffing defense and enough blitzing to force pressure on Tyrod Taylor, while still keeping enough defenders on the edges of the field to limit the damage Taylor can do with his legs. You'll never catch me saying that being a defensive coordinator in the NFL looks easy.
Nonetheless, I still have faith - though it may be muted lately - in the "bend, don't break" potential of this defense. I predict an uplifting bounce-back performance for Sutton and his defense that limits the Bills to 4.8 fewer points than their season average and leads KC to a hard-fought 23-16 victory.
Doug LaCerte usually procrastinates too much to do much with his Facebook page or tweet very many tweets @DLaC67.
When the L.A Chargers beat Cleveland today, they'll have a .500 record. A Chiefs loss would put Rivers' squad just a game behind KC in the standings. It's not a "must-win" for the Chiefs today, but the outcome will significantly change the Kingdom's outlook on the playoffs this year. If my predictions prove to be accurate today, it should be a close one.
1. Andy Reid and Alex Smith drove this offense into a downward spiral of ill-conceived conservatism that culminated in last week's embarrassing defeat. Alex must get back to extending plays with his feet instead of ruining plays by prematurely scrambling out of the pocket. I'd rather see him take a few hard licks today than throw any more 2-yard passes on 3rd and long. I think he knows this, too.
Reid must allow this to happen with properly balanced play-calling that evenly incorporates his three big offensive weapons attacking all levels of the field. The offense's recent refusal to stretch the defense by consistently threatening them with deep passing is as well-documented as it is infuriating. I think Andy knows this, as well. I predict that the Chiefs will complete four or more passes for 20+ yards while Kareem Hunt returns to gaining triple-digit yardage.
2. I know I just really dogged KC for their conservatism, but that philosophy leads to a great turnover differential, and that always leads to success. The six teams who have thrown five or fewer picks all lead their divisions. To Taylor's credit, he's thrown only three picks over 279 pass attempts this year. He and Alex both have their reasons to avoid turning the ball over at all costs today. I predict a relatively clean game with two or less total turnovers.
3. The Chiefs haven't faced a running back as legit as LeSean McCoy since this whole decline started with a disgusting Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh. KC fans saw Le'Veon Bell dip and slide through the Chiefs defense for 179 yards on the ground. A performance like that from Shady today would spell doom for the Kingdom, so Chiefs DC Bob Sutton must win the chess match to win this game. He needs to dial up the right combination of solid run-stuffing defense and enough blitzing to force pressure on Tyrod Taylor, while still keeping enough defenders on the edges of the field to limit the damage Taylor can do with his legs. You'll never catch me saying that being a defensive coordinator in the NFL looks easy.
Nonetheless, I still have faith - though it may be muted lately - in the "bend, don't break" potential of this defense. I predict an uplifting bounce-back performance for Sutton and his defense that limits the Bills to 4.8 fewer points than their season average and leads KC to a hard-fought 23-16 victory.
Doug LaCerte usually procrastinates too much to do much with his Facebook page or tweet very many tweets @DLaC67.
Sunday, November 19, 2017
Can KC Make Giants' Season Even Sadder?
A whole bunch of stats indicate that our Kansas City Chiefs should succeed handily against the New York Football Giants today. The 1-8 Giants are one of the three worst teams in football according to power rankings from ESPN, NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report and probably several more power rankings I didn't check. New York's defense cannot stop big plays, and KC may be the league's best big-play offense. The Giants can't stop the run, and the Chiefs bring to the Big Apple one of the world's best running backs. However, KC is not without their own flaws, and the Giants have the tools necessary to exploit those flaws today.
The only Giants on the offensive side of the ball that scare me are the running backs, and not only because Orleans Darkwa averages 5.1 yards over 81 attempts this season. The Giants' only victory so far this year came against the similarly lousy Denver Broncos in Week 6. New York didn't turn the ball over, while Denver turned it over three times, and Darkwa ran for 117 yards. He and Wayne Gallman scare me because all running backs scare me until the Chiefs show marked improvement in the run-stopping department. The Giants are actually one of only three teams in the league allowing more yards per rush than KC. If the Chiefs limit turnovers and Darkwa, they should win. We know KC can limit turnovers, but we also know the defenses' run-stopping skills are lacking. This leads me to an ever-so-smooth segue that then leads me to these three quick predictions:
1. Because of all the aforementioned success with running the ball, I predict both Darkwa and Kareem Hunt to earn more than 85 yards on the ground. Savor every moment of Chiefs football you get today, because all this rushing should keep the clock ticking and make this a relatively quick game.
2. The Giants played arguably their best game of the season against the current front-runners for the NFC championship. Eli and the rest of the offense didn't show up until the fourth quarter that week, when they scored all of their 24 points to make the Philadelphia Eagles sweat late. The Eagles ultimately won 27-24, but let's remember those 24 points scored in a single quarter before we get too cocky at any point in this game. KC's coaching staff will undoubtedly keep that in mind. I predict that Eli helps the Giants keep things interesting in New York today and stops KC from covering their 10-point spread.
3. Despite my hesitation to predict a blowout or even a comfortable win, I predict a 30-23 victory for the Chiefs that should provide some calm to the Kingdom. It's not like a victory against a playoff-caliber opponent, or even a .500 opponent, but it's a meaningful "get healthy" moment for KC. This is the start of four consecutive weeks with a Sunday noon game for the Chiefs, so now's the time to return to normalcy with a win in New York.
Doug LaCerte still has a rarely used Facebook page and occasionally tweets things @DLaC67.
The only Giants on the offensive side of the ball that scare me are the running backs, and not only because Orleans Darkwa averages 5.1 yards over 81 attempts this season. The Giants' only victory so far this year came against the similarly lousy Denver Broncos in Week 6. New York didn't turn the ball over, while Denver turned it over three times, and Darkwa ran for 117 yards. He and Wayne Gallman scare me because all running backs scare me until the Chiefs show marked improvement in the run-stopping department. The Giants are actually one of only three teams in the league allowing more yards per rush than KC. If the Chiefs limit turnovers and Darkwa, they should win. We know KC can limit turnovers, but we also know the defenses' run-stopping skills are lacking. This leads me to an ever-so-smooth segue that then leads me to these three quick predictions:
1. Because of all the aforementioned success with running the ball, I predict both Darkwa and Kareem Hunt to earn more than 85 yards on the ground. Savor every moment of Chiefs football you get today, because all this rushing should keep the clock ticking and make this a relatively quick game.
2. The Giants played arguably their best game of the season against the current front-runners for the NFC championship. Eli and the rest of the offense didn't show up until the fourth quarter that week, when they scored all of their 24 points to make the Philadelphia Eagles sweat late. The Eagles ultimately won 27-24, but let's remember those 24 points scored in a single quarter before we get too cocky at any point in this game. KC's coaching staff will undoubtedly keep that in mind. I predict that Eli helps the Giants keep things interesting in New York today and stops KC from covering their 10-point spread.
3. Despite my hesitation to predict a blowout or even a comfortable win, I predict a 30-23 victory for the Chiefs that should provide some calm to the Kingdom. It's not like a victory against a playoff-caliber opponent, or even a .500 opponent, but it's a meaningful "get healthy" moment for KC. This is the start of four consecutive weeks with a Sunday noon game for the Chiefs, so now's the time to return to normalcy with a win in New York.
Doug LaCerte still has a rarely used Facebook page and occasionally tweets things @DLaC67.
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Can Desperate Steelers Squad Keep it Close in KC?
I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to make this afternoon's game at Arrowhead interesting. I can only imagine that this week of practice in Pittsburgh was intense, and Chiefs-Steelers is flourishing into a serious rivalry. Big Ben Roethlisberger, not to mention many of his key targets, are looking for a bounce-back after an ugly loss in Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers will be desperate to right the ship and stay above .500, and desperate teams are dangerous. Mike Tomlin will undoubtedly have his guys jacked up for this. That's why I'm predicting KC to win a somewhat-close game instead of completely blowing the Steelers out.
Pittsburgh comes into Arrowhead with enough emotional fuel to keep things entertaining, but comparing their flaws to KC's strengths provides plenty of evidence of the Chiefs' superiority.
The Steelers' two ugly losses share a key element; when Pittsburgh's opponent kept the score close early on, thereby avoiding pass-heavy play-calling, those teams' ability to run the ball killed the Steelers. Pittsburgh was just crushed at Heinz Field at the hands of Blake Bortles and the Jags last week. Big Ben's five interceptions really turned that game sideways, but Jacksonville's consistent success running the ball is what ultimately earned them the W. Leonard Fournette gashed Pittsburgh for 181 yards last week, and he's not the only back to help his squad beat the Steelers this season.
In Week 3, the Chicago Bears' duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined for 35 carries and 218 yards as Chicago handed Pittsburgh a disappointing 23-17 defeat. In games when Pittsburgh gained an early lead, opposing QB's were forced to throw into a still-solid Steelers secondary. When that happens, Pittsburgh still looks legit, but when opposing teams get a chance to run the ball, Pittsburgh looks average-at-best.
This makes the game-plan for the Chiefs seem oddly simple. Of course, play-calling in an NFL game is never simple. The Steelers expect a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt, and since they've yet to prove they can stop someone like him, that's what they'll get. Thing is, Pittsburgh spent all week focusing on how to stop the run, as this is clearly their biggest concern for all the aforementioned reasons. Fortunately for fans in Chiefs Kingdom, Andy Reid will be ready with some tricky short passes when the Steelers defense is focused on Hunt, which should lead to a solid, balanced game for KC's offense. That impressive offense plays a big part in my predictions this week:
1. Pittsburgh holds opponents to 139.6 passing yards per game this season, which is the league's lowest average by a full 20 yards. Current MVP front-runner Alex Smith is deftly commanding the league's 8th-best pass-attack and 2nd-best overall offense, so despite my expectations for a big day for Kareem Hunt, I also predict that Smith will gain at least 175 yards through the air.
2. Let's just make my expectations for Hunt to dominate into an official prediction: Kareem will have his fifth game with at least 100 rushing yards this season, and he'll break off a long run for at least 35 yards. This should lead KC to a 30-20 victory.
3. Marcus Peters isn't all that bad, right? I predict that he'll bounce back with a strong performance at and least one pick today, which will help us all get over this "attitude problem" stuff quickly. Don't forget that this guy who people seem to despise right now is the same guy that everyone wanted to hug when he ripped the football out of Kelvin Benjamin's monstrous hands and stole a game for us in Carolina last season. Peters didn't break any laws or hurt anyone as far as I know, so as far as I care, I just want to see him shut down half the field and ball-hawk his way to more pick-sixes. Don't let his apparent attitude problems stop you from enjoying his awesomeness to the fullest, this week and every week.
Doug LaCerte still has a Facebook page for some reason, and he still uses Twitter @DLaC67.
Pittsburgh comes into Arrowhead with enough emotional fuel to keep things entertaining, but comparing their flaws to KC's strengths provides plenty of evidence of the Chiefs' superiority.
The Steelers' two ugly losses share a key element; when Pittsburgh's opponent kept the score close early on, thereby avoiding pass-heavy play-calling, those teams' ability to run the ball killed the Steelers. Pittsburgh was just crushed at Heinz Field at the hands of Blake Bortles and the Jags last week. Big Ben's five interceptions really turned that game sideways, but Jacksonville's consistent success running the ball is what ultimately earned them the W. Leonard Fournette gashed Pittsburgh for 181 yards last week, and he's not the only back to help his squad beat the Steelers this season.
In Week 3, the Chicago Bears' duo of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined for 35 carries and 218 yards as Chicago handed Pittsburgh a disappointing 23-17 defeat. In games when Pittsburgh gained an early lead, opposing QB's were forced to throw into a still-solid Steelers secondary. When that happens, Pittsburgh still looks legit, but when opposing teams get a chance to run the ball, Pittsburgh looks average-at-best.
This makes the game-plan for the Chiefs seem oddly simple. Of course, play-calling in an NFL game is never simple. The Steelers expect a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt, and since they've yet to prove they can stop someone like him, that's what they'll get. Thing is, Pittsburgh spent all week focusing on how to stop the run, as this is clearly their biggest concern for all the aforementioned reasons. Fortunately for fans in Chiefs Kingdom, Andy Reid will be ready with some tricky short passes when the Steelers defense is focused on Hunt, which should lead to a solid, balanced game for KC's offense. That impressive offense plays a big part in my predictions this week:
1. Pittsburgh holds opponents to 139.6 passing yards per game this season, which is the league's lowest average by a full 20 yards. Current MVP front-runner Alex Smith is deftly commanding the league's 8th-best pass-attack and 2nd-best overall offense, so despite my expectations for a big day for Kareem Hunt, I also predict that Smith will gain at least 175 yards through the air.
2. Let's just make my expectations for Hunt to dominate into an official prediction: Kareem will have his fifth game with at least 100 rushing yards this season, and he'll break off a long run for at least 35 yards. This should lead KC to a 30-20 victory.
3. Marcus Peters isn't all that bad, right? I predict that he'll bounce back with a strong performance at and least one pick today, which will help us all get over this "attitude problem" stuff quickly. Don't forget that this guy who people seem to despise right now is the same guy that everyone wanted to hug when he ripped the football out of Kelvin Benjamin's monstrous hands and stole a game for us in Carolina last season. Peters didn't break any laws or hurt anyone as far as I know, so as far as I care, I just want to see him shut down half the field and ball-hawk his way to more pick-sixes. Don't let his apparent attitude problems stop you from enjoying his awesomeness to the fullest, this week and every week.
Doug LaCerte still has a Facebook page for some reason, and he still uses Twitter @DLaC67.
Monday, October 2, 2017
Skins Could Make it Close in KC
Our Kansas City Chiefs are off to one of their best starts in franchise history, but the Washington Redskins team they'll face tonight looks impressive. Washington dropped their season opener 30-17 against a pesky Philadelphia Eagles team that played KC strong to the very last snap. The Skins then beat a surprisingly solid Los Angeles Rams team 27-20, then crushed the Oakland Raiders 27-10 last week.
In that latest game, Washington looked more-than-worthy of respect. Kirk Cousins completed 25 of his 30 pass attempts for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, while the Redskins defense held Oakland to only 128 total yards. However, that same defense looked mediocre before last week's game, allowing at least 332 yards to both of their previous opponents.
They'll face some solid competition tonight, but the stats back up KC's legitimacy to this point. The New England Patriots just supplanted KC as the league's highest-ranked offense, all while taking an L against the Carolina Panthers yesterday. KC still holds the #2 spot for highest yards-per-game average, and they're still comfortably leading the league in rushing yards per game.
That should translate into a victory for KC, but this remarkable Redskins defense won't make it easy tonight at Arrowhead. KC's league-leading rushing yards-per-game average is 162, but Washington's rush defense allows an average of just 62.3 yards per game. Only two teams hold their opponents to fewer yards per game this season, and only the Broncos hold teams to a lower average of rushing yards.
A stout defense and a legit QB aren't the only Washington assets worth worrying about in this matchup. Arrowhead Pride's Joel Thorman wrote that Washington's highly-touted new play-maker Chris Thompson currently averages 12.96 yards per touch. Although Thompson doesn't play every down, he can make a huge difference on second and third downs, and he also returns kicks. The Chiefs' ability to stop Thompson from making any game-changing plays could decide the winner of tonight's game.
It could all come down to whether or not KC's "bend-don't-break" style of defense continues to pay off. Only five teams in the NFL allow more yards per game than Kansas City, but only seven teams hold their opponents to fewer points per game. Your Chiefs are currently the best football team in the universe because they're hitting home runs on offense and stopping them on defense. I hope you like segues, because that leads me to my three quick predictions for tonight's game:
1. Each team will break off a gain of at least 50 yards. Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith both look very comfortable throwing downfield right now. The emergence of our guy Kareem Hunt and Washington's Chris Thompson adds factors on both sides of the ball that can change games instantly. If not for some clutch KC defense so far this year, I'd say this game could turn into a shootout.
2. Vegas puts the over/under for tonight's game at 48.5. I'm wrong every damn time I pick overs, and both these defenses are solid, albeit in very different ways, so I'm picking the under tonight. I'm once again putting faith in KC's defense to keep making big stops in the red-zone, because if they don't, this prediction will probably go badly for me.
3. If all goes well, we'll see another balanced attack with Hunt and Smith that helps KC continue their winning ways. The Chiefs will win a close, exciting game, 24-23, and stand alone as the only 4-0 team in football.
Doug LaCerte neglects his Facebook slightly more than he neglects Twitter @DLaC67.
In that latest game, Washington looked more-than-worthy of respect. Kirk Cousins completed 25 of his 30 pass attempts for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, while the Redskins defense held Oakland to only 128 total yards. However, that same defense looked mediocre before last week's game, allowing at least 332 yards to both of their previous opponents.
They'll face some solid competition tonight, but the stats back up KC's legitimacy to this point. The New England Patriots just supplanted KC as the league's highest-ranked offense, all while taking an L against the Carolina Panthers yesterday. KC still holds the #2 spot for highest yards-per-game average, and they're still comfortably leading the league in rushing yards per game.
That should translate into a victory for KC, but this remarkable Redskins defense won't make it easy tonight at Arrowhead. KC's league-leading rushing yards-per-game average is 162, but Washington's rush defense allows an average of just 62.3 yards per game. Only two teams hold their opponents to fewer yards per game this season, and only the Broncos hold teams to a lower average of rushing yards.
A stout defense and a legit QB aren't the only Washington assets worth worrying about in this matchup. Arrowhead Pride's Joel Thorman wrote that Washington's highly-touted new play-maker Chris Thompson currently averages 12.96 yards per touch. Although Thompson doesn't play every down, he can make a huge difference on second and third downs, and he also returns kicks. The Chiefs' ability to stop Thompson from making any game-changing plays could decide the winner of tonight's game.
It could all come down to whether or not KC's "bend-don't-break" style of defense continues to pay off. Only five teams in the NFL allow more yards per game than Kansas City, but only seven teams hold their opponents to fewer points per game. Your Chiefs are currently the best football team in the universe because they're hitting home runs on offense and stopping them on defense. I hope you like segues, because that leads me to my three quick predictions for tonight's game:
1. Each team will break off a gain of at least 50 yards. Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith both look very comfortable throwing downfield right now. The emergence of our guy Kareem Hunt and Washington's Chris Thompson adds factors on both sides of the ball that can change games instantly. If not for some clutch KC defense so far this year, I'd say this game could turn into a shootout.
2. Vegas puts the over/under for tonight's game at 48.5. I'm wrong every damn time I pick overs, and both these defenses are solid, albeit in very different ways, so I'm picking the under tonight. I'm once again putting faith in KC's defense to keep making big stops in the red-zone, because if they don't, this prediction will probably go badly for me.
3. If all goes well, we'll see another balanced attack with Hunt and Smith that helps KC continue their winning ways. The Chiefs will win a close, exciting game, 24-23, and stand alone as the only 4-0 team in football.
Doug LaCerte neglects his Facebook slightly more than he neglects Twitter @DLaC67.
Sunday, September 24, 2017
3 Quick Predictions for KC in Week 3
The Chiefs and Chargers kick off at the StubHub Center just moments from now. Here are my three quick predictions for Week 3:
1. The Los Angeles Chargers gave up 230 yards through the air to Jay Cutler last week and 219 to Trevor Siemian in Week 1. Alex Smith has thrown for over 250 yards in each of the first two games this year. Smith will continue this success and rack up more passing yards against the Chargers than any other QB this season until Week 8, when the Chargers visit the Patriots.
2. No running back has averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry against the Chargers defense this season. Andy Reid's creative play-calling with Kareem Hunt, and possibly Tyreek Hill, will change that today.
3. The Chiefs have the 10th-highest average of points allowed per game, and only three teams have allowed more yards per game this year. This bend-don't-break stuff could come back to bite us this week. The Chargers scored 21 points against Denver and 17 against Miami, but Philip Rivers and Company could break out any week. I expect San Die-err, uhh, the Chargers, to score more than 21 today. I still predict them to lose to our Chiefs, 27-23.
1. The Los Angeles Chargers gave up 230 yards through the air to Jay Cutler last week and 219 to Trevor Siemian in Week 1. Alex Smith has thrown for over 250 yards in each of the first two games this year. Smith will continue this success and rack up more passing yards against the Chargers than any other QB this season until Week 8, when the Chargers visit the Patriots.
2. No running back has averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry against the Chargers defense this season. Andy Reid's creative play-calling with Kareem Hunt, and possibly Tyreek Hill, will change that today.
3. The Chiefs have the 10th-highest average of points allowed per game, and only three teams have allowed more yards per game this year. This bend-don't-break stuff could come back to bite us this week. The Chargers scored 21 points against Denver and 17 against Miami, but Philip Rivers and Company could break out any week. I expect San Die-err, uhh, the Chargers, to score more than 21 today. I still predict them to lose to our Chiefs, 27-23.
Sunday, September 17, 2017
KC Can't Sleep on Eagles in Week 2
Don't sleep on these Philadelphia Eagles, Chiefs fans. It may feel like KC can't be beat after that sweet victory in the reigning champs' backyard, but the way the Chiefs and Eagles match up gives us serious potential for a wild game today.
The Eagles defense ranked 13th in yards allowed per game in 2016 and 12th in points allowed. The 2017 squad currently ranks fourth with four sacks. In Week 1, that defense held the Washington Redskins (who ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards per game last year) to just 17 points and 264 total yards. The Eagles blitz often on defense, and their offense revels in attempting deep passes. Carson Wentz' effectiveness at turning those attempts into big gains for Philadelphia will determine the Eagles' ability to stay in this game. That brings me to my three quick predictions:
1. Doug Pederson's game plan will target Chiefs CB Terrance Mitchell numerous times, and it will pay off for a disappointingly big play for Philly at least twice. KC's game plan will counter with plenty of secondary help for Mitchell when Wentz is in passing situations, but he's gonna get burnt. I can just feel it.
2. Kareem Hunt might not break records today, but he should still have a solid outing against a Philadelphia run defense that ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2016. New England, for the record, finished 3rd in that category last year, and we all know what Kareem did to them in Foxborough last week. Stopping Eagles DT Fletcher Cox from stuffing up run plays will be crucial today, but Hunt will still rush for at least 80 yards and finish the day with more than 100 yards total.
3. I think we'll see more of a shootout than Vegas predicts. Because of a greater potential for turnovers, potent passing offenses on both sides of the ball and a KC defense that will sorely miss Eric Berry and Steven Nelson, I predict a 30-24 Chiefs victory.
Doug LaCerte still kinda uses Twitter @DLaC67, and he barely, barely looks at his ole' Facebook any more.
The Eagles defense ranked 13th in yards allowed per game in 2016 and 12th in points allowed. The 2017 squad currently ranks fourth with four sacks. In Week 1, that defense held the Washington Redskins (who ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards per game last year) to just 17 points and 264 total yards. The Eagles blitz often on defense, and their offense revels in attempting deep passes. Carson Wentz' effectiveness at turning those attempts into big gains for Philadelphia will determine the Eagles' ability to stay in this game. That brings me to my three quick predictions:
1. Doug Pederson's game plan will target Chiefs CB Terrance Mitchell numerous times, and it will pay off for a disappointingly big play for Philly at least twice. KC's game plan will counter with plenty of secondary help for Mitchell when Wentz is in passing situations, but he's gonna get burnt. I can just feel it.
2. Kareem Hunt might not break records today, but he should still have a solid outing against a Philadelphia run defense that ranked 15th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2016. New England, for the record, finished 3rd in that category last year, and we all know what Kareem did to them in Foxborough last week. Stopping Eagles DT Fletcher Cox from stuffing up run plays will be crucial today, but Hunt will still rush for at least 80 yards and finish the day with more than 100 yards total.
3. I think we'll see more of a shootout than Vegas predicts. Because of a greater potential for turnovers, potent passing offenses on both sides of the ball and a KC defense that will sorely miss Eric Berry and Steven Nelson, I predict a 30-24 Chiefs victory.
Doug LaCerte still kinda uses Twitter @DLaC67, and he barely, barely looks at his ole' Facebook any more.
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