Can KC Cover Sizeable Spread By Dominating Doomed Dolphins?

This week's opponent for the Kansas City Chiefs provides the perfect example of what not to do as a football franchise. The Miami Dolphins are highly likely to stink for at least two years. They lost by two touchdowns to the Raiders in Week 1, then the 49ers blew them out last week. They have some really ugly team stats I'll show you here soon, and it's probably because they have to pay a guy who isn't on their roster.

I'm not blaming Tua Tagovailoa for signing the contract. In fact, credit is owed to him and his representation for cooking that thing up and getting it done. The Dolphins are paying Tua $99.2 million over the next two years just to go away. That's insane in a league where every team has a strict budget of $272.5 million this season. It is also more money than the Miami Marlins spent on their entire 2026 payroll. This has forced the franchise to make cost-effective roster choices that made them bad at almost everything so far this season.

The Dolphins offense is averaging the fifth-fewest yards and second-fewest points per game through two games. As Miami analyst Chris Kouffman pointed out, 47% of their offensive linemen snaps are going to back-ups, which is a way higher rate than any winning team in the league. The defense is allowing 31 points per game, the fourth-most in the league, and Miami has recorded zero sacks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs scored 31 or more in both their first games, and they lead the league in total yards per game with 457.5. 

It's starting to get late early for Miami, and I can't avoid thinking it has something to do with the huge check they're cashing for Atlanta Falcons back-up quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. This year's cap hit for letting him go is $55.2 million. That's enough to pay Josh Allen to actually play for the team. That's enough to pay off this year's salaries for Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake May, Geno Smith, and throw in two years of Kenneth Walker III. If things get tough for the Chiefs at any point this season, just try to remind yourself how much worse things could be.  

Maybe finding greatness in a future #1 overall draft pick can bring an end to the misery in Miami, but it isn't ending today. Andy Reid could use this live action to test out some younger guys and give the veterans a rest in the Florida heat, but not before this one is decidedly in Kansas City's control. I'm predicting a comfy 34-17 victory for the Chiefs.

Can KC Keep Colts' Losing Streak Alive?

There was a point last season when the Indianapolis Colts were 7-1, and that loss was to the L.A Rams. They continued their successful start with an overtime victory in Berlin in November. After their bye week, they faced off with our Kansas City Chiefs. That week, the Chiefs overcame an 11-point deficit with an overtime game-winning field goal to beat the Colts 23-20. Indy hasn't won since.

That game sent the Colts into a death spiral of seven straight defeats that left then with a losing record and denied them entry to the postseason. The losing carried over into this season when they were outmatched by the Baltimore Ravens last week. So if the Chiefs whooped their opponents by three touchdowns last week, and their next opponent just got whooped by 18, then surely more of the same is destined to happen this week, right? I'm not so sure.

Kenneth Walker III made a serious statement with his first performance as a Chief, with 173 rushing yards, including a 60-yard breakaway touchdown, with another 18 yards receiving. That all began on the Chiefs' first drive that involved handing the ball to K9 in the first seven of eight plays. This week, Kansas City faces a team that allowed the 3rd-most passing yards but the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game last season. Sauce Gardner was still playing elite-level corner despite minor injuries last year, but the rest of Indy's secondary is vulnerable. Now that the threat of the Chiefs' new rushing attack is real and frightening, play-action passes and other counters to the run defense will be more potent. Andy Reid and OC Eric Bienemy undoubtedly spent this week gameplanning with a new-found joy stemming from this new-found balance on offense.

That means KC is more likely to air it out at a higher rate than last week, while the Colts are likely to keep plugging away with their star running back, and for good reason. Taylor had at least 16 carries in 14 games last year. Colts QB Daniel Jones struggled in Week 1, but if he could just provide average production, Indy's new acquisition at wide receiver could present opposing defenses with big mismatches. Adding veteran Keenan Allen to the Colts offense means they have two athletic receivers who are at least 6'2. That could be enough to pose more of a problem to the Chiefs than Denver did last week.

Add to that the possible psychological boost Indy gets from wanting to exorcise the demon of that defeat that seemingly cursed them. Beating the team that started this ongoing losing streak, which is now the league's longest, could be a rallying cry for the Colts this week. That won't give them enough mojo to beat KC tonight, though. I was wrong when I predicted a gritty game last week, since the Chiefs walked all over Denver, but I'm predicting a gritty victory again today and hoping for a similar overdelivery. I'm picking the Chiefs, 24-20.

Could Challenging Chiefs Schedule Make Missing Playoffs Possible in '26?

The Kansas City Chiefs begin this season facing bigger, scarier questions than ever before in the Patrick Mahomes era. It's tough to know how the secondary will perform after a complete overhaul. The wide receiver room has numerous young, high-ceiling performers that have issues with staying on the field. The greatest tight end in football history is either just barely past his prime or about to look ancient, depending on who you ask. With all this uncertainty and surely more to analyze as the season goes on, the experts at DraftKings and me are still predicting double-digit victories for the Chiefs. Will that be enough to avoid back-to-back seasons of the Chiefs missing the playoffs?

The current over/under for the Chiefs' regular season win total is 10.5 at DraftKings. Only the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams have a higher expected win total. After 10 straight seasons of winning at least 10 games, the Chiefs went 6-11 last year, and the offense sputtered with or without Mahomes. Kansas City finished 20th in yards per game and 21st in points last season. We'll spend more time analyzing the offense as the season progresses, but the focus this offseason was clearly on upgrading the running game. Replacing previous average-at-best production with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III and bringing back running backs guru Eric Bienemy represents a clear improvement here, but other changes for this team are more concerning.

Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook all played a big role for KC last season, and they're all gone. McDuffie played in over 650 snaps representing over 65% of the playing time on defense. Watson and Cook both played over 850 snaps for more than 82% of the time the defense was on the field. The Chiefs traded up in the draft to get LSU's Mansoor Delane to be their next shut-down cornerback and signed Alohi Gillman to shore up the safety position for years to come. Early looks at Delane indicate potential greatness, but nothing empirical can be analyzed until this Monday at Arrowhead.

I'm not convinced that Denver's offense, which ranked 14th in points scored per game last year, will look that impressive when facing off with a presumably improved Chiefs defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points per game last season. I expect Mahomes to outshine Bo Nix, but I expect both teams' defenses to be more up-to-speed than the offenses in Week 1. Denver's defense is largely the same as the elite unit from last year, but I believe the most important athlete in Kansas City's history is about to put the whole football world on notice. This version of Mahomes has wisdom accrued from years of greatness plus a hunger to prove himself as the best in the world all over again. If you think the secondary will still be strong, and you think the Chiefs will apply pressure up the middle with Chris Jones and Peter Woods, which I do, then Kansas City should prevail on their home turf Monday night. 

More importantly, if the defense still looks strong after the aforementioned changes, then the Chiefs have a high likelihood of earning a playoff berth. Struggles from that defense, though, could waste another year of Mahomes' prime. 10 of the Chiefs' regular season games will be played against an opponent that Vegas oddsmakers expected to have a winning record this season (teams with an over/under for regular-season wins at or above 9.5). Many of these tough games take place away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium, making them even more challenging. KC must travel to Seattle, Buffalo, Denver, Cincinnati and twice to Los Angeles, where they'll face both the Rams and Chargers.

I think teams that are presumably playoff-caliber like Baltimore, Buffalo, New England and the recently improved Bengals will make it difficult to reach the playoffs with a 10-7 record. I'm predicting all those teams - plus the Chiefs - to win at least 11 games this season. That means that losing to any of the subpar opponents on the schedule like Arizona, Miami, Vegas or the Jets could doom Kansas City to another year of relative irrelevance. Beating those opponents should be almost automatic, while beating high-quality opposition will require a defense that's at least average, and I think Kansas City can accomplish that. I'm picking the Chiefs to win 11 regular-season games and reach the playoffs, thanks in part to a gritty 20-16 victory over Denver in Week 1.

Chiefs Might Make Big Splash by Trading Up - But Should They?

Multiples sources have now projected the Kansas City Chiefs to trade up to get Arvell Reese tonight in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft. Several teams with a pick ahead of KC's first at #9 overall would presumably choose Reese, so KC would need to offer a trade package including the #9 and #29 picks and maybe more to get in the right spot. Reese is a versatile, explosive 6'4 edge rusher who many analysts compare to Micah Parsons. His floor, according to analysts, is starting impact edge rusher, and his ceiling is consistent candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. So, how likely is it that we see the Chiefs trade up for this generational talent, and would it be the right move?

I think it's highly possible based on how Chiefs general manager Brett Veach typically uses the NFL draft. Veach wants to make a can't-miss choice at a premium position with what everyone cheering for the Chiefs hopes is the highest draft position of the Patrick Mahomes era. Adding talent to the secondary, the pass rush and the wide receiver room are the Chiefs' biggest priorities right now, and Veach loves turning later-round picks into safeties and cornerbacks that develop into legit starters in the NFL. When the team has numerous other positions of need, it makes sense to utilize this strength and spend that valuable draft pick elsewhere. Also, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is considered the most can't-miss secondary prospect in this year's draft, and spending a top-ten draft pick on one of the league's lowest-paid positions when there are other issues to address would seem unwise.

Rushing the passer is one of those issues, and after stud pass rusher David Bailey goes as many expected at the #2 spot to the New York Jets (or only slightly later if those reported indications were false), the next EDGE off the board is expected to be Rueben Bain Jr. Despite a strong pedigree in nearly every other facet of the game, his historically short arms have become a hotly contested talking point across the internet's vast and sometimes silly landscape. Problem or not, it could be enough to make Veach and his staff lean away from Bain Jr. at the #9 spot of this draft. Wide receiver is another position where the Chiefs need help, and Jordyn Tyson is expected to be within range of the ninth overall pick. A combination of injury concerns and a high volume of high-ceiling receivers in the latter end of the first round could make the Chiefs hesitant about picking Tyson so early.

Potential flaws in the philosophy of drafting practically anyone at #9 lends credence to the idea of trading up for Reese. Veach has done more research and pondered every what-if far more deeply than I've done here, so he knows every risk with every player they could potentially choose at #9. If I can think up a viable reason for why not to draft each of the guys they could target in that spot, Veach has already thoroughly done the same. Other teams and scenarios may stop the Chiefs for trading up for Reese, and if they do, I can see Kansas City trading down to get more draft capital out of more desperate teams. However, if the opportunity presents itself, I'd love to see the Chiefs be bold and trade up for Reese in order to add genuine greatness to their defense for years and years to come.

Bringing Back Bienemy - Was It Wise?

Changes came quickly after the Kansas City Chiefs finished their season with a 6-11 record and a noticeable decline in productivity by the offense. Former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy parted ways with the team, and KC reunited with other former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. I already looked at Nagy and Bieniemy's relative effects on the Chiefs' offenses throughout the years just weeks ago. Now, Bieniemy is back, but where has he been, and what does it mean for the Chiefs' future?

Chiefs Kingdom wasn't alone in noticing Eric Bieniemy's success as the OC under Andy Reid from 2018-2022. It led to Eric taking a job as assistant head coach and offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders. While there, he and head coach Ron Rivera were unable to get a Sam Howell-led offense over the hump despite marginal statistical improvement. Washington let both coaches go after a single season, and Bieniemy took a job - again as the assistant head coach and offensive coordinator - with the UCLA Bruins. This was his first return of sorts, as his success with UCLA as their running backs coach from '01-'05 preceded his first NFL coaching job.

Bieniemy's brief stint in UCLA went poorly, and in '25 he joined the Chicago Bears as the running backs coach. Here, he found his stride again and helped Chicago become the third-most-productive rushing attack in football. Bieniemy excelled this season at helping first-year head coach Ben Johnson maximize productivity from Bears running backs D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. As told by Ron Kopp Jr. over at Arrowhead Pride, 7th-round pick Monangai's 783 rushing yards would've led KC in rushing over either of the last two seasons despite the rookie being second on his own team this year. Recreating this success in Kansas City could be key to getting this Chiefs dynasty back on track.

Both of KC's leading rushers from last season are unrestricted free agents. Bieniemy just led the Bears' latest 7th-round draft pick to be more productive than any Chiefs running back since 2023. KC will also be drafting ninth overall - their earliest draft pick since picking first overall in 2013. Mel Kiper Jr. likes KC drafting Notre Dame's stud running back Jeremiyah Love with that pick. Many mock drafts have him landing right around that #9 spot. With or without spending that huge draft pick on a running back, I'm predicting that Bieniemy's return makes a big, positive difference for the Chiefs' future.

It's possible that Monangai and Ben Johnson are just a great combo that helped Bieniemy look good in his role in Chicago. However, Chiefs Kingdom lived through the jarring and obvious influence Eric makes. To finish in the top six in the NFL in points and yards per game in each of his five seasons as the offensive coordinator is no accident. I'd be scared about drafting virtually any running back in the top ten, so I'd prefer to see Bieniemy find his next Monangai later in the draft. He's clearly proven that as a trustworthy strategy. Either way, Chiefs Kingdom will remember Eric's return as a big step in the right direction.

How Third Down Doomed KC in 2025

I didn't think 6-11 was on the board for the Kansas City Chiefs this year. What went wrong? Actually, a quick look through the season stats indicates that they kinda got worse at everything. In the regular season prior to the one that just concluded, KC had an average offense and a really good, possibly great, defense. The 2024 Chiefs also had a +6 turnover differential. In 2025, the Chiefs defense was diminished but still strong, their turnover differential dropped to -1, and flaws on offense ultimately prevented them from achieving sustained success.

The Chiefs defense finished 10th in yards allowed per game and 6th in points, after ranking 9th in yards and 4th in points last year. They stayed strong despite finishing 2025 with the fourth-fewest sacks of any team in the league. Kansas City also allowed the fourth-highest third down conversion rate in the NFL. They struggled with this in 2024 also, however, so none of this can be the primary reason for coming short this season. The sad truth revolves around the regression of KC's offense.

Over their three straight seasons of reaching the Super Bowl, the Chiefs ranked third, sixth and second in the league in third down conversion. This season, they ranked 22nd. This helped turn an offense that ranked 16th and 15th in yards and points per game in '24 into the offense that finished 2025 at 20th and 21st in yards and points. Ranking 22nd or lower in both third downs converted and opponent's third downs converted is a lack of success experienced only by the Chiefs and two other teams this season.

Fans could feel it when they watched this season, too. It was a gut-punch every time the team looked good for lengthy periods of time, only to make it all futile by allowing a long third down conversion or failing to convert a dang 3rd and 2. If change is what the Chiefs offense needs, that's good, because change is coming. Former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is not expected to return, and the rumor mill about his replacement is already in full gear. That means I'll be returning when we get more news to share my thoughts on it all while the playoffs go on without us. Enjoy it all Chiefs Kingdom, and I'll be back soon.

Chiefs' Stinker Season Reaches Clunky Conclusion

One of the most disappointing seasons in Kansas City Chiefs history comes to a fittingly dreary conclusion today when the Chiefs face the hapless Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are already locked into their worst record since 2012, when Romeo Crennel and Matt Cassel led the way to a 2-14 season. Watching Patrick Mahomes writhing around and clutching his knee in that Colts game will unfortunately live with me forever. Even with Mahomes on the field, Kansas City simply wasn't a playoff-caliber team in 2025. After ten straight seasons with at least ten wins, I'm now hoping for KC to lose their last game on the schedule just to improve their draft position.

How did it all go so wrong? Winning a Super Bowl and losing the next one may have altered the perception of this offense, but it hasn't been good for three seasons. KC ranked 15th or lower in points scored per game each of the last three seasons after six straight seasons in the top six. What was the difference? Eric Bienemy left, and Matt Nagy took over as offensive coordinator. 

I spent three seasons wondering what the problem was and when we would be elite again, thinking that the return of injured or suspended players on offense would spark the resurgence of this once-great offense. Meanwhile, Bienemy just found his groove leading the running backs room for the Chicago Bears. The Bears rank 3rd in yards per game and ninth in points per game this season. While he's due for a promotion of some sort, or at least a ton of positive recognition, Matt Nagy seems destined for departure of the state of Missouri - much like the Chiefs themselves. I'm predicting a 23-17 defeat at the hands of the lowly Raiders today, assuming that the Raiders are so dismal that they cannot succeed in failing when failure is their most beneficial outcome. Enjoy this week of football in whatever way suits you best, and I'll be back next weekend for one big wrap-up to this stinker of a season.