Spags Stuffing Buffalo's Run-Game Can Keep KC's #1 Seed Hopes Healthy

Patrick Mahomes is so damn great that he constantly overshadows how good Josh Allen is, and I think that will continue this afternoon at Orchard Park. Their 2025 output looks remarkably similar. Allen's completion percentage is exactly one point higher than Patrick's. His average for yards per pass attempt is 0.5 yards higher, and his Passer Rating is 0.5 points higher. Both elite QB's have thrown four picks and been sacked 14 times for 85 yards lost. While both these future Hall of Famers feasted on bad defenses in weeks prior, they both face elite pass defenses this afternoon.

The Bills rank second league-wide in passing yards allowed per game, and the Chiefs rank third. Every AFC team that always has Mahomes standing between them and a Super Bowl appearance needs to focus on making their secondaries solid, and it seems Buffalo has done that this season. The strength of the Bills' secondary paired with the Buffalo defense ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game could result in the Chiefs running the ball more often and with more success. KC isn't as bad at anything as Buffalo is at stopping the run, but the Chiefs defense also isn't great at slowing down great running backs. While KC's defense ranks fourth overall in yards allowed per game, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game. James Cook III is second only to Jonathan Taylor in total rushing yards, and as ESPN's preview of the game pointed out, the Bills are undefeated when he either reaches 100 rushing yards or scores.

How Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo chooses to counter this and how the defense implements his decisions will decide the winner today. Cook III averages only 28.7 rushing yards per game over his career against the Chiefs, but he also averages 3.3 receptions for 30 yards per game. Consider that a small sample size, though, because Cook III will face KC for only the fourth time in his fourth pro season today. Last time he saw KC's defense was in the Arrowhead Invitational, known in some parts as the AFC Championship, when he finished with 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and 49 receiving yards. KC managed to win that game thanks to an 11-point fourth quarter, but allowing 29 to any team is concerning.

Both of these top-shelf teams need this win to keep their hopes for the #1 seed in the AFC healthy. Mahomes typically succeeds when it matters most, and this is the most important game he'll be a part of until the start of the playoffs. This largely untested Bills team is hungry, but they looked far-from-perfect when they lost to New England and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks. Despite the Chiefs facing perhaps their toughest test of the regular season today, I knew all week who I would pick to win this important face-off. I'm taking the Chiefs in a hard-fought 26-24 battle.

KC Confident, Washington Worried After Jayden Daniels Injury Update

The 3-4 Washington Commanders are a tricky team to judge based on their long list of injuries throughout this season. Now, instead of the Kansas City Chiefs facing off with last year's Rookie of the Year, another serious Commanders injury means that Marcus Mariota will start for Washington this Monday. The spread on Draft Kings right now is at 12.5, which is even more evidence that we may see back-to-back stinkers from the Chiefs' opposition. As fans in Washington already wonder what could have been after only seven games, the 4-3 Chiefs are back in pole position for another Super Bowl. 

An 0-2 start to the season almost seems like a distant memory now that KC is the betting favorite to win it all at +500. Patrick Mahomes' odds to win MVP are now at just +125. Josh Allen is the only other guy with odds better than +700 now. There are plenty of reasons to agree with these predictions from the odds-makers. KC's franchise-altering QB has put up elite passer numbers this season, and a lot of that came without his top two receivers.

Mahomes ranks fourth in passing yards and is tied for fourth in touchdowns while throwing only two picks. Only Matthew Stafford has thrown two or fewer interceptions while throwing for as many yards. KC is +250 to win the AFC, with Buffalo at +370 and the Colts at +450. To gain that much confidence from the odds-makers after such a tough start to the season is impressive. It's even more impressive when considering that ESPN ranked Buffalo and Indy's strengths of schedule 23rd and 25th respectively, while the Chiefs ranked 11th.

While these stats may be more interesting than a middling, injured Commanders team, Mahomes won't allow his guys to lose focus on the game ahead of him like I've done today. It will ultimately be him and his now-robust receiver core making the biggest difference in this game, putting aside the injury to Washington's talented franchise QB. The Commanders allow the 12th-most points per game in the league, thanks largely to allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game. That would make overcoming a fully operational Chiefs offense tough even if Washington had a healthy Jayden Daniels. I'm predicting a 31-13 victory for Kansas City.

Allen Again Standing In the Way of Chiefs Chasing Championship History

I want to be the guy who does deep dives on the opposition's second-stringers, and sometimes I am, but today's story being told on the field revolves around the two historically great quarterbacks trying to reach the Super Bowl. Josh Allen's greatness is the only obstacle left for a Kansas City Chiefs team trying to reach their fifth Super Bowl in six years. Allen is either the MVP or the runner-up this season. A Bills team that many pundits expected to regress wound up tying their franchise record for regular season wins, thanks largely to Allen's poised performance and a ridiculously strong team turnover differential.

The Chiefs' turnover differential of +6 was bested by only nine teams in the league this season. The Bills led the league in turnover differential by a margin of eight. Their differential is precisely four-times Kansas City's. This huge disparity exists largely because Josh Allen reduced his interceptions from 18 in 2023 to just six this season. This improvement didn't cost Buffalo their ability to score a bunch of points, either; Buffalo's starters scored at least 30 points in 12 of their 16 regular season opportunities, and they've scored at least 40 in three of their last four. The only bright side for Chiefs fans here is that this Chiefs defense - especially in the playoffs - outclasses anything the Bills experienced this season.

KC's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season. Buffalo did not play a team that allowed fewer. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season and scored 30, and when Buffalo faced the Detroit Lions' 7th-ranked scoring defense, Allen's offense put up 48. A key factor here was Detroit finishing that game with zero sacks. Josh has been incredible using his legs this season, but he won't get away with that as much today.

Steve Spagnuolo's defense sacked Houston's C.J. Stroud eight times last week. That came from six different Chiefs and included five sacks in the fourth quarter. Spags' unique prowess in sending blitzes that confuse opposing offenses is an intriguing skill to have when facing a quarterback who excels at stealing first downs with his legs when no passing options are available. It will be fascinating to see how Spagnuolo balances his clever blitz packages with limiting Allen's running skills. Since I believe in the other Hall of Fame-caliber talent doing what they always do in the playoffs, this Spags Vs. Allen chess match should be what decides today's winner.

Today's game should be a true nail-biter. The Bills will likely win the turnover battle. Josh Allen will invariably frustrate Chiefs fans everywhere by converting some crucial third or fourth downs using his scrambling skills. The connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to be the greatest in NFL history, but Buffalo's desire to limit it could lead to the potential for a home run play to someone like Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. All this should result in an all-time classic victory for our Chiefs, 30-27, in overtime. I hope you can enjoy all of it with people who love football and love you.

Real Rivalry Renewed as Chiefs Face Bills in Buffalo

The 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs have already vanquished numerous so-called rivals this season, but today, the Chiefs finally face off with a team worthy of that label. Kansas City ended the Buffalo Bills' last season in the divisional round of the playoffs with a 27-24 victory at Arrowhead. The Bills have won the regular season meeting between these two AFC powerhouses in their last three chances, but KC has ended Buffalo's bid for a Super Bowl in three of their last four seasons. It's safe to say that all the ingredients for true beef are available in this star-studded afternoon matchup. While the Bills enter this game with the league's second-highest scoring margin and third-highest scoring offense, KC enters this game with some obvious and unresolved flaws.

The Chiefs kept their undefeated streak alive through serious adversity, and that won't change in Orchard Park today. KC has been walking a tightrope these last two weeks with an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a last-second blocked field goal to beat the Denver Broncos 16-14. The Chiefs' issues at left tackle are glaring and well-documented, and the absence of Harrison Butker, who's quickly becoming one of the most prolific kickers in NFL history, will be felt this afternoon. KC's turnover differential also holds them back from being the best version of themselves. While KC's turnover rate of -4 ties them for the league's 9th-worst, the Bills come into this game with a differential four better than any other team in football.

Those turnover numbers for Buffalo are remarkable in every way. The Bills rank fifth in interceptions and third in fumbles forced, totaling in the second-most takeaways in football. Josh Allen's offense has fumbled twice and thrown four picks, resulting in the league's fourth-fewest total giveaways. That means Allen is on pace to throw fewer than eight interceptions after three consecutive years of throwing at least 14. That improvement has changed the way fans and pundits league-wide view the Bills this season.

One thing that never changes is Patrick Mahomes' ability to be great when it matters most, despite his relatively pedestrian stats throughout the season. In the rare moments when he doesn't come through, the special teams and defense bail Mahomes out anyway - at least so far. I'm still predicting a Chiefs victory today because of Patrick's apparent inability to fail in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson has posted an insane 121.3 Passer Rating in his 80 fourth quarter pass attempts. He's the only QB who's played the majority of this season and compiled a higher Rating in the fourth quarter than Mahomes. That kind of consistent clutch performance is why I'm picking the Chiefs to overcome the Bills in a 24-23 thriller.

Dramatic Divisional Round Duel Features Faces of Football Facing Off

A game this big feels like at least two Christmases for citizens of Chiefs Kingdom such as myself. Today represents a very important page in the history book of this fine sport. We are only hours away from a face-off between two teams entwined in a memorable rivalry that pits one of the greatest quarterbacks of this era against one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The spotlight for this divisional round matchup has landed, deservedly so, on Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Their stories will forever be connected, and their efforts in this game will alter the way these greats are perceived by generations of football fans to come.

In his first ever playoff road game, Mahomes is trying to cement his name in the all-time elite category, already surpassing most Hall of Fame QBs' accomplishments. Patrick is only still chasing the heights of legendary names like Montana and Brady. Josh Allen is still trying to get his first playoff win against the same guy who ended his season in back-to-back years prior to the last one. On paper, and for this season in particular, Allen is the better QB. He threw for more yards, more yards per catch and more touchdowns all while running with way more success and taking fewer sacks. Josh ranked third in regular season QBR according to ESPN, while Mahomes finished at #8. 

However, Allen is facing off with the guy on pace to be the greatest playoff quarterback in league history. That obviously should give KC a major advantage, but one position on the field doesn't choose who wins and loses in the playoffs. Buffalo ranks fifth in regular season total yards per game, seventh in rushing yards per game and sixth in total points per game. Their offense converted the highest percentage of third downs in the NFL in the regular season. Buffalo's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season and compiled the fourth-most sacks. They didn't get here by accident.

Despite Buffalo's impressive finish to the regular season and their Wild Card Weekend victory, I cannot be convinced that they're the most likely victor tonight. The Chiefs have earned my trust that they'll survive moments like this. All the guys on KC's roster who are going to the Hall of Fame deserve all the faith of the citizens of Chiefs Kingdom. I'm predicting a classic playoff thriller and a 27-21 victory for Kansas City.

Rapidly Reviewing Chiefs' Likeliest, Luckiest Possible Playoff Opponents

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Los Angeles Chargers in their final regular season game this afternoon, but Chiefs Kingdom will be more focused on at least two other games taking place today. Results from the noon game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans and the night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will shape this season's playoff tournament. If Miami loses to Buffalo, the Dolphins will face the Chiefs next week in the Wild Card round. Wins from the Dolphins and Jaguars would give the Houston Texans the #6 seed and the Chiefs as playoff opponents next week. If the Jags lose and the Dolphins beat the Bills, that spot goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the highly unlikely event of a tie in the Dolphins-Bills game, the Bills become KC's next opponent. 

Miami is the only team out of these four that already punched their ticket to the playoffs. The Dolphins also have the best odds at facing KC next week. ESPN Analytics gives Buffalo a 54.4% chance to win tonight. The same formula gives the Jags a 57.1% chance to beat Tennessee. Do Chiefs fans want to see Miami in the playoffs, or should we be rooting for another team to sneak into that spot? 

I personally wouldn't fear the Dolphins or Texans too much, but all Chiefs fans should be cheering for the Tennessee Titans today. A Titans win and a Dolphins win would be the best-case scenario for KC, who would be heavily favored against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week in that scenario. Now that T.J. Watt is out with a sprained MCL, Pittsburgh doesn't have a single player that scares opponents as much as Tyreek Hill or C.J. Stroud. 

The big question is whether or not Tennessee can survive a game with the desperate Jags. The Titans score the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL, and promising rookie QB Will Levis is out today with a foot injury. Despite fighting through his own injuries lately, Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence looks ready to play. Jacksonville beat the Titans by 20 in Week 10. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans as the worst offensive line in football entering Week 18, which could be bad news when facing off against Jacksonville's stud pass-rusher Josh Allen, who ranks third league-wide in total sacks this season.

So, the Titans may not get it done for us, but that's okay. Baltimore is honestly the only AFC team I would predict to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs right now, and we don't need to worry about that for at least a couple weeks. I'm predicting wins for the Jags and Dolphins, which would mean I'm predicting that the Chiefs will face the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. C.J. Stroud looks dangerous, but that's a topic for another day. Enjoy cheering for Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Tannehill today, Chiefs Kingdom. I definitely didn't have that on my bingo card this season.

Can KC Score Enough Without Pacheco to Defeat Desperate Buffalo Bills?

A desperate Green Bay Packers team defeated the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau last week. Another desperate team faces off with the Chiefs at Arrowhead this afternoon. The mercurial Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills need a win today to avoid a losing record and stay alive in the AFC's crowded Wild Card race. Allen may play like the MVP today, or he could lay a major egg. It's always hard to tell with him.

The Chiefs defense he'll face today should be improved thanks to a major return from injury. Linebacker Nick Bolton will retake his starting job from Drue Tranquill, who's now on the injury report himself with a concussion. Without their two best players at that spot, the Chiefs got cooked by Jordan Love all game long last week. That won't be so easy now that Bolton's back.

Tranquill isn't alone on that list of Chiefs inactive due to injury today. Safety Bryan Cook, offensive tackle Donovan Smith and stud running back Isiah Pacheco are all out this week. That's bad news for a Chiefs offense that already looks unimpressive. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or fewer in half of their games this season. They're also turning the ball over at a rate that makes it difficult to sustain success in this league.

Only five teams in the NFL have thrown more interceptions than KC, and only one team has picked off opposing teams fewer times than KC. At least the Chiefs are forcing fumbles at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Still, that results in a -6 turnover differential, which is the seventh-worst in football. Kansas City won it all last season with a -3 differential, so perhaps that -6 isn't as detrimental as it seems. Either way, losing the turnover battle against strong opposition is a recipe for an L in the NFL.

I think the Chiefs avoid major mistakes and sneak away with an exciting victory today. Solid coverage from KC's secondary should make Allen do something foolish at least once. If the Chiefs win today's turnover battle, they can win the game, and I think they will. I'll predict a 23-20 win for KC. 

Expect Plenty of Points When Chiefs Face Buffalo

Last Monday did not go according to plan for our Kansas City Chiefs, but they ended that night victorious. After KC looked unstoppable against Brady's Bucs in Week 4, Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders almost stunned the Chiefs at the last second. Speaking of stunning a team at the last second, the Bills are in town. The top two teams in the AFC, and perhaps the NFL, face off today for the first time since their insane playoff thriller. We never know how these meetings with the Buffalo Bills will go, but we can safely predict a bunch of points on the scoreboard.

Both the Chiefs and Bills have scored over 30 in three out of five weeks, which is more impressive than usual considering the lack of scoring throughout the rest of the league. 23.6 points per game gets a team into the top ten this year, whereas last year it took 26.5 points. It's hard to do better than Josh Allen's 424 passing yards and four touchdowns last week. The struggling KC secondary that got exposed by Davante Adams on Monday must now face a potentially more potent threat in Allen and Stefon Diggs. Opponents are compiling a 105.5 Passer Rating against the Chiefs' defense, which puts them at 28th in that statistic, while Buffalo is the league's best in this regard, holding opponents to a 67.8 Passer Rating.

Also, the Bills' secondary has 8 picks, and the Chiefs have just one. That seems like plenty of evidence to make me pick the Bills today, but I'm not doing it. There's just something about the Chiefs playing a bad game, win or lose, that makes them better in the following week. We can safely say KC plays up and down to their competition, so we should see them at their best again today. Despite Buffalo looking like legit Super Bowl contenders, and possibly frontrunners, I'm predicting that the Chiefs win another thriller, 38-34, and take the clear lead in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed.

Can KC Keep Crushing Revamped Raiders?

Each passing year makes me feel two years older and twice as confident that early October is the best chunk of time on the calendar. As playoff baseball and spooky season both begin, as the countless different shades of gold and red emerge from the trees around us, so, too, do the true identities of teams in the NFL. Our Kansas City Chiefs just racked up 41 points on one of football's greatest defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had allowed 27 total points in the three games prior to facing KC. The Chiefs scored more than that in the first half. How will Mahomes' offense fare tonight when they face a struggling Las Vegas Raiders defense?

Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. Only the Arizona Cardinals have fewer sacks per game. If they hope to keep this game close, the Raiders will need to succeed on third down. Their opponents' 35.42% conversion rate on third down is ranked a respectable 13th league-wide - three slots higher than KC's defense. The Chiefs' offense, on the other hand, converts slightly over 51% of its third down conversion attempts. Only the Buffalo Bills are more successful at moving the chains on third down.

The Raiders' offense just played their best game of the season so far, and more of that success might make tonight's game dramatic. Davante Adams caught nine passes from his former college QB Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns while also catching five passes. It's no surprise that Vegas' first win of the year came in the first game in which these guys both looked great.

Vegas may be improving, but the Chiefs already look like the best team in football. Only Josh Allen's Bills can argue that fact at this point. I think the Raiders will have every reason to come into this game motivated and ready to win. That means Vegas could keep this one close. If they do, history indicates that KC is still destined for victory and the Raiders are about to screw everything up for themselves. Such is the true identity of each team. With that in mind, I'm predicting a 31-24 victory for KC tonight.

Can KC's AFC Supremacy Continue?

The losers of the next Chiefs game we watch will end their season devastated, regardless of how much they achieved and contrary to what they may tell the media. The winners worry only about their warm-weather packing plans, as the calm California climate of Inglewood's SoFi Stadium awaits them in two short weeks. One more Kansas City Chiefs victory is all it takes to earn them a spot in the Super Bowl. Only Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals stand in Kansas City's way. This game's got all the makings of yet another classic this afternoon, but reaching the levels of drama from last week's game would be damn difficult.

KC cannot keep giving up 36 points per playoff game, but Chiefs Kingdom is ecstatic after Kansas City outdueled the Buffalo Bills last week. Kansas City's defense focused on limiting the impact of their opponents' best wide receiver. Consequently, Stefon Diggs only caught three passes for seven yards. Implementing that same strategy today seems logical when we look back at the last time these teams faced off. Ja'Marr Chase destroyed KC's defense for over 250 receiving yards and three touchdowns only four weeks ago. Limiting the chances of that happening again was undoubtedly on Steve Spagnuolo's mind a lot this week.

Buffalo's Gabriel Davis became a legend by racking up four touchdown catches and over 200 yards receiving last Sunday, but all that still didn't stop the Chiefs from getting the job done. I believe KC can and will limit Chase, even if it means someone else goes crazy in his stead. Whether that's Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd or some dark-horse like Gabriel Davis is irrelevant as long as key Chiefs on offense continue to improve their already-impressive playoff resumes. 

Future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce caught 8 for 96 and a game-winning score last week. That was the first playoff game he didn't finish with over 100 receiving yards since the Chiefs faced Tampa in the Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill has more ups and downs relative to the remarkably consistent Kelce, but Hill still averages over 110 receiving yards over his last six playoff games. The most obvious piece to the playoff success puzzle for this Chiefs offense is its legendary signal-caller.

Patrick Mahomes now has an 8-2 playoff record in which he completes over 66% of his passes with a 25/5 touchdown/interception rate. Mahomes has avoided throwing a pick in seven of his ten playoff appearances. Joe Shiesty looks legit in this exciting start to his playoff career, but nobody short of Joe Montana would make Mahomes the underdog in this moment. I don't even believe that Joe could outduel Mahomes right now.

That being said, Burrow gives the Bengals a puncher's chance with big-play potential similar to what the Kingdom regularly witnesses in Kansas City. Cincy ranks fifth league-wide in pass plays of 20+ yards, and Mahomes' offense is sixth. Joe is tied for second place with his 15 passes of 40+ yards, and Patrick is again right there with him at third place with 11. Not everything about their style of play is so similar, however.

Burrow led the league in taking sacks in the regular season. He took 51, while Mahomes was only sacked 28 times. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen were sacked fewer times while still playing in all 17 regular season games. Chris Jones, Frank Clark and the rest of KC's defense should have a better chance bothering Burrow than the Bengals have of bringing down Mahomes. KC's defense ranks 8th or higher in QB hurries per dropback, pressures per dropback and knockdowns per pass attempt.

The defense doesn't need to completely shut down this recently dominant Bengals offense to give the Chiefs a chance today. After all, giving up 36 points apparently works out just fine as long as they leave about 13 seconds on the clock. If KC can hit pay-dirt with more frequency than Burrow's Bengals today, the Chiefs will once again claim the trophy that bears their maker's name. I'm predicting a thrilling 37-31 victory for Kansas City.

Can KC Continue Playoff Push by Beating Buffalo?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off tonight to decide who faces Cincy in next week's AFC Championship game. Patrick Mahomes passed for over 404 yards and five touchdowns, and he still didn't outperform Josh Allen. Buffalo's signal caller started the game with seven straight touchdowns against the greatest football coach ever, as Allen and the Bills dismantled Bill Belichick's New England Patriots 47-17. 

Both QBs led prolific passing offenses that showed flaws at times before looking truly elite down the stretch. By the end of the regular season, both teams posted top-five yards per game and points per game. Despite some ups and downs in the regular season, Allen still finished with a 60.8 QBR that ranks sixth league-wide, just a spot behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen and the Bills dominated the Chiefs in Week 5 of the regular season, and they just dominated their opponents on Wild Card Weekend, but the Chiefs are still favored by one or one and a half at home tonight. The huge difference between what the Chiefs were in October and what they have now become is the key reason why KC's last meeting with the Bills had little influence on today's spread.

That first meeting in Week 5 was weird. Both QBs led their teams in rushing yards. No Bill caught more than three passes, but four different Bills finished the day with over 50 receiving yards. Buffalo's defense game-plan limited the production of future Hall of Famers on KC's offense so successfully that Mecole Hardman led the Chiefs in receiving yards and catches that day. Stefon Diggs only caught two passes, but he still racked up 69 receiving yards.

Buffalo beat the Chiefs by 18 that day, and talking head Stephen A. Smith described KC's defense as "trash" and "an atrocity". At that point in the season, he wasn't wrong. Chris Jones was still experimenting with a new position. Melvin Ingram was still a disgruntled Pittsburgh Steeler. I already detailed the changes that made the Chiefs championship contenders again, but it's worth remembering just how hapless things felt back in October. 

I predicted that the Chiefs would lose to the Bills in that first meeting. Much has changed since then. For today, I have to give the edge, as I always do, to the coach and quarterback tandem with proven playoff success. Josh Allen looked flawless last week, but that's his only truly great outing in the playoffs. Both offenses should come down from the stratosphere to be at least slightly less incredible than they were last week. This is especially true for KC, as the Bills defense held opponents to the lowest total yards, passing yards and total points per game this season. Despite this, I'm going with my guy Mahomes to provide a little magic and keep the good times rolling in Kansas City. This matchup has Game of the Year vibes, and I think the Chiefs will survive it, 34-31.

Chiefs' Flaws Fueling Fans' Fears

Everyone sees the Kansas City Chiefs differently now after they looked lost against playoff-caliber competition like the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. Certain players, coaches and management apparently at fault for these recent struggles are under the microscope now, perhaps more than ever before. A win against a banged-up 2-5 New York Giants team wouldn't quiet the rightfully loud critics, but a loss could make the playoff hopes for the once-mighty Chiefs look highly unrealistic.

Thankfully, I cannot predict that such a disappointing defeat will take place tonight. The Chiefs have taken care of the other flawed teams from the NFC East when they handily defeated both the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team. With the current Vegas spread sitting at +10 1/2, the stage is clearly set for the Chiefs to succeed tonight. Since they have a clear advantage over New York and a tough stretch of the schedule coming up next, the natural instinct to look past the Giants could be tough for KC to overcome. Does that make this a trap game for the Chiefs?

It's far from impossible. Remarkably ineffective defense and eye-catching turnover issues have conjured up more fear in Kansas City than anything Halloween can offer us. The Chiefs rank 26th or worse in points allowed per game, points allowed per play, passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. No other team in the league can make that claim. The Chiefs ALSO rank 26th or worse in total takeaways, interceptions, fumbles, total giveaways and turnover differential. These flaws make Kansas City a team that's hard to trust, regardless of their opponent.

The Chiefs are now desperate to win every game against teams on their schedule who aren't among the elite in the league because that schedule includes many more games against the teams who are. A defeat at the hands of a team that Vegas oddsmakers expect KC to beat by double-digits could theoretically take the Chiefs out of the playoffs. That desperation could be medicine or poison for a Chiefs team that's been through all the highs and lows of championship glory together and still never looked this flawed.

I believe a new sense of urgency will prove useful to this tested, veteran-heavy Chiefs roster moving forward. Regardless of any urgency-based motivation, the Giants will still line up against one of the worst defenses in football tonight. Whether that defense can improve enough to even be considered average remains to be seen. I'm not expecting all of the fear-inducing problems with this Chiefs team to disappear over a week of practice, so I can't predict domination tonight. I'll go with an ugly, stressful 30-24 victory for the Chiefs that keeps Kansas City's fans nearly as stressed as before the game began. Chiefs Kingdom knows the road to glory has just become unexpectedly perilous.

Will Patrick Punish Washington's Weak Pass Defense?

The Washington Football Team and the Kansas City Chiefs enter today's meeting with identical 2-3 records. I sure as hell did not predict that. I did predict that KC would ultimately come up short against the Buffalo Bills last week, but I wasn't expecting such a wide gap on the scoreboard. The key difference between last week's game and this one will be the ability of Kansas City's opponent to exploit their weaknesses.

Buffalo entered last week's game with a strong rushing attack, a studly secondary and the league's best turnover differential. The Chiefs entered that game with turnover concerns and a defense with no identity, or at least not a positive one. Buffalo reaped the rewards of these advantages and sent Kansas City sports radio into a dynastical death-declaring panic. Washington has Scary Terry McLaurin averaging 13.8 yards per catch this year, but their offense is otherwise remarkably average. Buffalo now boasts the league's best turnover differential at +11 while Kansas City drops to the second-worst at -7, but KC is one of only four teams with a differential worse than Washington's -3. The Chiefs only put 20 on the board last week against the legitimately elite Bills defense, but they should have better chances of succeeding against a Washington defense that allows the league's fifth-most passing yards per game.

If it wasn't already obvious, the problem here is not the Chiefs offense. Kansas City ranks fifth league-wide in points per game and fourth in total yards. Patrick Mahomes still ranks second in touchdown passes and Adjusted QBR while remaining top-eight in passing yards, completion percentage and Passer Rating. He's doing this while throwing as many picks through his first five games this year as he threw in either of his last two seasons.

Chiefs Kingdom should be excited to see what a guy like Mahomes does when motivated and maybe even angered by this undesirable start to the season. I'm predicting a 41-27 victory and a return to relatively clean football for the Chiefs today. Dropped passes, turnovers and penalties are topics I don't want to discuss for the rest of my life, let alone this week.

Buffalo's Strengths Present Problems for Flawed Chiefs

How will our 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs look when they take the field against the conference's other top dog? The 3-1 Buffalo Bills looked downright dominant in their last three weeks. Our Chiefs dropped two of three and made many fans wonder about their weaknesses. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, those weaknesses worth wondering about are weaknesses that tonight's opponent is built to exploit.

After losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1, Buffalo has scored 118 points and allowed just 21. They've shut out two of their last three opponents. Buffalo's offense scores the second-most points per game in the NFL. This compliments a strong defense that attacks opposing quarterbacks, which is clearly something Kansas City struggles with this season. Only three teams average fewer sacks per game than the Chiefs, and only five teams average more sacks per game than the Bills.

It's an all-around matchup nightmare for Kansas City. Buffalo's strengths can theoretically limit KC's strengths and exploit their weaknesses. The Bills rank 9th league-wide in yards per rush attempt, and nobody allows more yards per rush to opponents than our Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs are still 6th in yards per pass attempt, Buffalo has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt in the league this season. The Bills also have the best turnover differential at +7, and only four teams have a worse differential than the Chiefs' -3.

It looks bad for the Chiefs when seen from this perspective, but understanding the level of competition each team has played against alters that perspective entirely. The Bills faced off against Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Houston. The 2-2 Washington Football Team is the only team Buffalo has faced this season that has won more than one game. The Bills truly have not been tested, and the hungry, hard-to-stop Chiefs will be miles better than anyone on Buffalo's schedule so far. Kansas City, on the other hand, has played against three playoff-worthy 3-1 teams...and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Picking a winner this week is no easy task. It's difficult to determine how much the differences in each teams' schedule affect their statistical rankings. No matter who Buffalo has played this year, my eyes tell me they're a team with a strong rushing attack and secondary. Because of the aforementioned clashes of weaknesses and strengths in Buffalo's favor, I have to predict a 30-27 Bills victory. Still, it won't be stunning if Patrick Mahomes pulls of something magical and KC gets it done. I'll spend my night hoping for that magic and hoping that my predicting is totally wrong.

Buffalo's Key Weakness Sets Stage for Mahomes Magic

Only the Buffalo Bills stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and consecutive Super Bowl appearances. Rarely has staring at a grid of numbers induced such goosebumps as when I look through stats for a Chiefs playoff game, as if that finally makes it all real. The historically unprecedented nature of this era in Chiefs history amplifies the intensity of every second of football we witness. So, how can Kansas City overcome Buffalo and keep the good times rolling?

Patrick Mahomes, by virtue of being phenomenally good at his job, is the story in Kansas City sports most of the time. Today will be no different, not only because of his greatness, but because of the Bills' recent history of struggling against top-shelf quarterback talent. Buffalo faced three QB's with a top-ten Passer Rating in the regular season. They lost to Ryan Tannehill's Titans in Week 5, then to Patrick's Chiefs in Week 6. The Bills later went on to win a 44-34 shootout with the Russel Wilson-led Seahawks in Week 9. To be fair, Buffalo also faced the guy with the league's 11th-best Passer Rating last week, when Lamar Jackson only put three points on the board for the Baltimore Ravens. 

Buffalo typically excels at limiting the success of the opposition's quarterback. They looked impressive against Baltimore last week, who seemed unstoppable in the weeks leading up to their early playoff exit. The Bills also succeeded with their blitz strategy when facing Baltimore, sacking Lamar Jackson four times and hitting him eight times. That was an impressive showing from Buffalo, but we all know Lamar and Mahomes are two totally different players.

The Bills now have the unenviable task of traveling to Arrowhead to slow down a guy who's on pace to become the greatest quarterback this planet ever produced. A respectable Buffalo defense that features elite cornerback play from Tre'Davious White needs to limit Patrick's success throwing to Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and other athletic pass-catching options. Josh Allen's offense looks excellent this season, and their 396.4 passing yards per game ranks second-best in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, the Chiefs averaged over 19 more passing yards than anyone else.

This evening, just after the sun sets on a chilly Kansas City day in January, our Chiefs take the field at Arrowhead with a chance to keep chasing the dream of a dynasty. Men like Tyrann Mathieu, Andy Reid and obviously Patrick Mahomes live for these moments. I expect them to take the reigns and lead our Chiefs to a 34-27 victory. Please, if it's safe, enjoy this with people who love football and love you.

Mahomes Bound to Bounce Back Facing Bad Bills Pass Defense

Today, we will witness an intriguing meeting of two legit AFC champ candidates who both hope to bounce back from recent stinkers. Our Kansas City Chiefs stunned me and most of the football world by losing to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. Will they rebound this afternoon, and will Patrick Mahomes outperform the polarizing QB standing in KC's way? 

Josh Allen played like an MVP candidate through the first four weeks of this season, then looked bad in his last game when the Tennessee Titans blew his Bills out 42-16. I like Allen. His proven ability to learn and grow can't be discounted. The Bills are presumably playoff-bound and he's just as much the reason why as any other player in Buffalo. That's enough to bring many in the media to think Allen will achieve elite status at some point, and perhaps that take is warranted. However, nobody thinks Josh Allen is Patrick Mahomes. 

Patrick clearly had one of his most forgettable games last week amidst a memorable stretch of historically unprecedented success. Mahomes arguably never played a worse second half in his entire career. Still, if you just compare the difference between the reaction to these two quarterbacks playing poorly in their last game, you can see the clear difference in status right now. Allen struggled, and everyone now wonders which version of him is to be expected every Sunday (or Monday, or Thursday, or Tuesday, or whenever.) Mahomes struggled, practically everyone was surprised by it, and practically nobody wonders whether Patrick will return to his typical elite form. 

We all know Mahomes' performance wasn't up to his own standards last week, but it's important to remember the same for the strategy employed by the Chiefs' head coach. I expect Andy Reid to acknowledge a lack of balance in last week's offensive gameplan as part of the reason the Chiefs were stunned by the Las Vegas Raiders. This means Clyde Edwards-Helaire should have a more significant impact this week, but that's not to say that Patrick won't be chuckin' it today. Buffalo's defense ranks in the bottom-10 in stopping the pass, and we know the Chiefs offense comes into this game with something to prove.

Kansas City's defense struggled in its own right recently, but their key weakpoints aren't facing a particularly bad matchup today. Only the Houston Texans allow more rushing yards per game than the Chiefs at the time of this writing, but only five teams in football average fewer yards on the ground per game than the Bills. It's time for KC to get back to their winning ways with a convincing, if not hard-fought victory over a solid squad. I'm going with a 42-34 win for a Super Bowl-winning Chiefs team that will be very well-prepared to silence doubters worldwide.

Can KC Bounce Back By Beating Buffalo?

Wow. That disaster of a game last week may have been the most disappointing moment in the Andy Reid Era of Chiefs football. The then-1-8 Giants team that beat KC didn't even play a particularly good game. New York gained 46 less yards than the Chiefs and possessed the ball for about six and a half fewer minutes. Orleans Darkwa led all Giants rushers with 74 yards over 20 carries. The Chiefs will face a better back and a much better team just moments from now at Arrowhead.

When the L.A Chargers beat Cleveland today, they'll have a .500 record. A Chiefs loss would put Rivers' squad just a game behind KC in the standings. It's not a "must-win" for the Chiefs today, but the outcome will significantly change the Kingdom's outlook on the playoffs this year. If my predictions prove to be accurate today, it should be a close one.

1. Andy Reid and Alex Smith drove this offense into a downward spiral of ill-conceived conservatism that culminated in last week's embarrassing defeat. Alex must get back to extending plays with his feet instead of ruining plays by prematurely scrambling out of the pocket. I'd rather see him take a few hard licks today than throw any more 2-yard passes on 3rd and long. I think he knows this, too.

Reid must allow this to happen with properly balanced play-calling that evenly incorporates his three big offensive weapons attacking all levels of the field. The offense's recent refusal to stretch the defense by consistently threatening them with deep passing is as well-documented as it is infuriating. I think Andy knows this, as well. I predict that the Chiefs will complete four or more passes for 20+ yards while Kareem Hunt returns to gaining triple-digit yardage.

2. I know I just really dogged KC for their conservatism, but that philosophy leads to a great turnover differential, and that always leads to success. The six teams who have thrown five or fewer picks all lead their divisions. To Taylor's credit, he's thrown only three picks over 279 pass attempts this year. He and Alex both have their reasons to avoid turning the ball over at all costs today. I predict a relatively clean game with two or less total turnovers.

3. The Chiefs haven't faced a running back as legit as LeSean McCoy since this whole decline started with a disgusting Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh. KC fans saw Le'Veon Bell dip and slide through the Chiefs defense for 179 yards on the ground. A performance like that from Shady today would spell doom for the Kingdom, so Chiefs DC Bob Sutton must win the chess match to win this game. He needs to dial up the right combination of solid run-stuffing defense and enough blitzing to force pressure on Tyrod Taylor, while still keeping enough defenders on the edges of the field to limit the damage Taylor can do with his legs. You'll never catch me saying that being a defensive coordinator in the NFL looks easy.

Nonetheless, I still have faith - though it may be muted lately - in the "bend, don't break" potential of this defense. I predict an uplifting bounce-back performance for Sutton and his defense that limits the Bills to 4.8 fewer points than their season average and leads KC to a hard-fought 23-16 victory.

Doug LaCerte usually procrastinates too much to do much with his Facebook page or tweet very many tweets @DLaC67.

Bye Week Breakdown Part 1: Hopes and Fears

 The Chiefs are now more than halfway through their two-week Peyton preparation, and fans are awaiting this week's Sunday Night Game O' The Week with high hopes and chewed up fingernails. Before we get into some in-depth Bronco talk, let's take a look at how the Chiefs got this far without a loss to their name.

KC entered this opportunely timed bye week after pulling out an unimpressive win against the lowly, injury-riddled Buffalo Bills. Once again, the Chiefs proved that they can make a game exciting in the ugliest of ways. Despite plenty of errant play, KC yet again found a new way to win – just outscore the other team with your defense. Oh, and get really damn lucky.

A multitude of dropped passes by Buffalo receivers, an Alex Smith fumble that absolutely should have been recovered by the Bills' starting punt returner Leonis McKelvin, a horribly overthrown pass from an unknown QB for an easy pick, several missed Bills tackles that included would-be sacks, a 100-yard INT return for a touchdown and several more fortunate turns of events helped the Chiefs to their current undefeated status.

People are pointing out this kind of thing constantly in the Chiefs Kingdom. Although the record remains unblemished, fans know this team has barely snuck away with more than one win against a sub-par opponent. How scared should fans be about facing Peyton at Mile High?

Pretty god damn scared. Were you expecting me to lie or something? This upcoming game is worthy of our fear, if only because it will be the biggest test so far for a team that has barely been passing the NFL equivalent of elementary school spelling quizzes lately. The Chiefs' last two games were harrowing, and they leave fans to wonder how their team will fare against legitimate, playoff-caliber competition.

In their last game, the Chiefs defense gave up 470 yards to a 3-5 Bills team led by a third-string QB. The week prior they allowed Jason Campbell to throw for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks and a 61% completion percentage. Fans have every reason to fear the most prolific quarterback in the league when their secondary has been this porous.

This weekend, the Report will return to explain why your hopes are just as legitimate as your fears. Tune in then to get a more in-depth breakdown explaining why the defense, on both sides of the ball, could make this game much more interesting than Donkey fans would like to admit.

Doug LaCerte operates this blog and does a bunch of other stuff for RantSports. Make him feel falsely important by following his Twitter @DlaC67, leave him rude comments on his Facebook and add him to your network on Google.