Could Challenging Chiefs Schedule Make Missing Playoffs Possible in '26?

The Kansas City Chiefs begin this season facing bigger, scarier questions than ever before in the Patrick Mahomes era. It's tough to know how the secondary will perform after a complete overhaul. The wide receiver room has numerous young, high-ceiling performers that have issues with staying on the field. The greatest tight end in football history is either just barely past his prime or about to look ancient, depending on who you ask. With all this uncertainty and surely more to analyze as the season goes on, the experts at DraftKings and me are still predicting double-digit victories for the Chiefs. Will that be enough to avoid back-to-back seasons of the Chiefs missing the playoffs?

The current over/under for the Chiefs' regular season win total is 10.5 at DraftKings. Only the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams have a higher expected win total. After 10 straight seasons of winning at least 10 games, the Chiefs went 6-11 last year, and the offense sputtered with or without Mahomes. Kansas City finished 20th in yards per game and 21st in points last season. We'll spend more time analyzing the offense as the season progresses, but the focus this offseason was clearly on upgrading the running game. Replacing previous average-at-best production with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III and bringing back running backs guru Eric Bienemy represents a clear improvement here, but other changes for this team are more concerning.

Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook all played a big role for KC last season, and they're all gone. McDuffie played in over 650 snaps representing over 65% of the playing time on defense. Watson and Cook both played over 850 snaps for more than 82% of the time the defense was on the field. The Chiefs traded up in the draft to get LSU's Mansoor Delane to be their next shut-down cornerback and signed Alohi Gillman to shore up the safety position for years to come. Early looks at Delane indicate potential greatness, but nothing empirical can be analyzed until this Monday at Arrowhead.

I'm not convinced that Denver's offense, which ranked 14th in points scored per game last year, will look that impressive when facing off with a presumably improved Chiefs defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points per game last season. I expect Mahomes to outshine Bo Nix, but I expect both teams' defenses to be more up-to-speed than the offenses in Week 1. Denver's defense is largely the same as the elite unit from last year, but I believe the most important athlete in Kansas City's history is about to put the whole football world on notice. This version of Mahomes has wisdom accrued from years of greatness plus a hunger to prove himself as the best in the world all over again. If you think the secondary will still be strong, and you think the Chiefs will apply pressure up the middle with Chris Jones and Peter Woods, which I do, then Kansas City should prevail on their home turf Monday night. 

More importantly, if the defense still looks strong after the aforementioned changes, then the Chiefs have a high likelihood of earning a playoff berth. Struggles from that defense, though, could waste another year of Mahomes' prime. 10 of the Chiefs' regular season games will be played against an opponent that Vegas oddsmakers expected to have a winning record this season (teams with an over/under for regular-season wins at or above 9.5). Many of these tough games take place away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium, making them even more challenging. KC must travel to Seattle, Buffalo, Denver, Cincinnati and twice to Los Angeles, where they'll face both the Rams and Chargers.

I think teams that are presumably playoff-caliber like Baltimore, Buffalo, New England and the recently improved Bengals will make it difficult to reach the playoffs with a 10-7 record. I'm predicting all those teams - plus the Chiefs - to win at least 11 games this season. That means that losing to any of the subpar opponents on the schedule like Arizona, Miami, Vegas or the Jets could doom Kansas City to another year of relative irrelevance. Beating those opponents should be almost automatic, while beating high-quality opposition will require a defense that's at least average, and I think Kansas City can accomplish that. I'm picking the Chiefs to win 11 regular-season games and reach the playoffs, thanks in part to a gritty 20-16 victory over Denver in Week 1.

Can Colts Cool KC Down?

The AFC West doesn't quite look like the juggernaut many experts anticipated, but I'm still thrilled to see our Kansas City Chiefs alone on top of the division. Beating the Los Angeles Chargers was no easy task. Patrick Mahomes looked mortal multiple times when potential picks were bobbled and dropped by the frustrated Chargers secondary. Rookie seventh-rounder Jaylen Watson turned a probably touchdown for LA into a memorable touchdown for KC with a 99-yard pick-six. Patrick's haters can hate all they want, but the game ended with both QB's posting a Passer Rating over 100 and Mahomes earning more than five points than Justin Herbert in this measurement. Today, we'll see the #1 Passer Rating in football against the #31 Passer Rating.

Call it a trap game if you want, but there should be little hope for the 0-1-1 Indianapolis Colts today. They have failed to achieve victory over two teams that Vegas oddsmakers expect to win 11 games combined this season. Indy's defense consistently fails to apply pressure, and it's making success on either side of the ball difficult for them. Only five teams in the NFL have fewer sacks through two weeks, and only three teams allow a better Passer Rating to opposing QB's.

Not even the production of last season's rushing leader should be enough to keep the Chiefs from victory. Jonathan Taylor's 161 rushing yards in Week 1 weren't enough to help the Colts win against the Houston Texans. That's not to say the Chiefs will allow that kind of performance today, even with the noteworthy loss of Willie Gay to suspension. KC faced another top-shelf running back last week when they hosted LA, and Austin Ekeler averaged only 2.8 yards on the ground over 14 carries. There's no other individual on Indy's roster that forces opposing coaching staffs to alter their battle plans.

The Chiefs don't look perfect, but they look like a real Super Bowl contender. The Colts don't look talentless, but they look like a real contender to choose first in next year's draft. I'm taking the Chiefs, 34-17.