Can KC's D Stuff Potential MVP JT?

The Kansas City Chiefs play the most important regular season game of the Mahomes-Reid Era today, and I'm afraid I'll keep saying that until a playoff berth is either secured or unobtainable. The 8-2 Indianapolis Colts are the AFC's biggest surprise and a genuine contender for the #1 seed. Their offense ranks first league-wide in points and yards per game. Their defense gets after the opposing quarterback and just added potentially elite talent to the secondary with a trade for Sauce Gardner. Indy started the season looking dangerous, but over the last two games, they've looked more like a danger to themselves. 

Daniel Jones deserves credit for redefining himself in Indianapolis. However, he may turn back into a pumpkin just in time for Thanksgiving. Last week, as the Colts nearly lost to the rudderless Atlanta Falcons, Jones threw a pick and fumbled the ball three times, losing one. The week before, Jones also fumbled three times, and he paired that with three picks as Indy lost to Pittsburgh. That's four interceptions and six fumbles in his last two times on the field. Patrick Mahomes clearly hasn't played his best ball lately, but he's not doing that.

So, if you're a Colts fan, you're not worried about that because you have Jonathan Taylor, right? I wouldn't be so confident. The Chiefs defense has already faced off with Saquon Barkley and four of the 11 most productive running backs in the league. KC faced Derrick Henry, Saquon, Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook III and never allowed a run of 18 yards or longer. Only Saquon has scored a rushing touchdown, and only Cook III has reached 90 yards rushing.

Water must find its level today. Losing to Denver last week was one of the most disappointing regular season defeats in my lifetime, but this team didn't become a dynasty by wilting after disappointing defeats. Many memories have been made by Chiefs teams with their backs against the wall. We've set the stage for some high-stakes drama, and that's when this team typically plays its best. I'm predicting a perception-altering 29-23 victory for the Chiefs.

Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Excellent Eagles Cannot Prevent Unprecedented Chiefs Three-Peat

Our Kansas City Chiefs are just hours away from their chance to do something never done before. These Chiefs have the opportunity to become the first ever team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. No back-to-back champs have ever made it back to The Big Game for a shot at #3. Standing in Kansas City's way is an imposing Philadelphia Eagles team with a superior defense, offensive line, running back and better wide receivers. Philly also has an offensive coordinator who succeeded so much in his role that he'll reportedly become the New Orleans Saints head coach once this game is over.

Eagles OC Kellen Moore deserves tons of credit for building an elite offense around Saquon Barkley and an elite offensive line. His scheme helped Saquon become just the ninth player in league history to run for 2,000 yards in a season. Philly leaned heavily on the offensive line and running back to great success this season, even when it disgruntled A.J. Brown and anyone else wanting them to air it out more often. Despite his frustrations, Brown still ranked fourth out of all qualifying receivers in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. PFF also has Devonta Smith ranked in the top-20 after he led the league in catch rate this season.

All those weapons on the Eagles' offense, and especially Barkley, gave Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo plenty to think about these past two weeks. Derrick Henry faced off with Spags' defense in the first week of this year's regular season, and he ran for just 46 yards on 13 carries in that game. Bijan Robinson ranked third in rushing yards this season behind only Henry and Saquon, but when he faced Kansas City in Week 3, he averaged only 1.9 yards over 16 carries. Bucky Irving, who ranked 10th in rushing for Tampa Bay, ran for 49 yards on 10 carries when the Chiefs beat the Bucs in overtime in Week 9. Carolina's Chuba Hubbard, who ranked 8th in rushing this season, ran for 58 with his 16 carries when he faced the Chiefs in Week 12.  That's four of the league's ten best running backs, and all of them averaged less than five yards a carry when they played Kansas City.

While KC excelled facing elite running backs, Saquon's stats against elite rushing defenses looked pedestrian. He looked good against Tampa's fourth-ranked rushing defense, averaging 8.4 yards per rush, but Philly's early  24-0 deficit in that game led to Saquon getting only 10 carries. He also faced Pittsburgh's 5th-ranked rushing defense, Green Bay's 6th-ranked rushing defense and #1-ranked Baltimore in the regular season. In all those games, he ran between 19 and 24 times and never averaged more than 4.7 yards per carry. Another Saquon performance like that today would be great news for Kansas City.

If Philly wants to keep this game competitive, they need to score way more than 19.2, which is the Chiefs' average points allowed per game in this regular season. The Eagles scored 27.2 per game in the regular season, which is good for seventh in the NFL, but that would not be enough to keep up with Playoff Mahomes. Playoff Mahomes is an absolute monster. He's simply the best at everything among everyone ever when it comes to the playoffs. Vic Fangio coordinated an excellent Eagles defense this season, but it won't be enough to stop Mahomes and Andy Reid from succeeding today.

The Eagles have a great, young secondary, a strong linebacker core led by PFF's "Breakout Player of the Year" Zack Baun and an elite blitzing attack led by edge rusher Nolan Smith and All-Pro defensive lineman Jalen Carter. These studs helped Philly allowed the least total yards and passing yards in the regular season. They ranked second behind the Chargers by just 0.1 points in scoring allowed. They held eight of their last nine regular season opponents to under 21 points. Only three of the Eagles' opponents, through the regular season and the playoffs, scored more than 23.

Mahomes told media that him vs. Fangio is "going to be a chess match", but it's really been like a chess match between Magnus Carlsen and a third-grader. Mahomes is 8-0 against Fangio-led defenses, with six of the wins coming against Fangio as head coach of the Broncos, and the other two occurring when Fangio was Miami's DC. The Kansas City Star's Blair Kerkhoff pointed out, however, that Mahomes has never faced a Fangio team this good before. Those Fangio teams scored about 12 per game, and while those Broncos and Dolphins defenses never ranked above 13th in DVOA, or Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average, the Eagles are first in the NFL. Even when facing a Philly team with an elite offense and defense, Mahomes' playoff prowess gives Kansas City the edge in today's Big Game.

A moment like this to prove one's greatness in completely unprecedented fashion is rare. Mahomes lives up to big moments with a higher rate of success than any quarterback in playoffs history. Similar consistent greatness has been shown by Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. I expect the true greats to be truly great today, but that also means Saquon could come very, very close to breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom. While the Eagles may have the better roster as a whole, I think the Chiefs' roster outclasses them when it comes to the number of players and coaches involved that are considered all-time greats. That will ultimately lead to a high-scoring, all-time moment for the NFL and a 33-27 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs.

As always, I hope you have the opportunity to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.