Can Motivated Mahomes Outmatch Dominant Denver Defense?

One of their most important regular season games in years awaits the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs this afternoon. Without a win today, KC will almost certainly fail to win their division. This would force them to play road games in the playoffs. It would also force fans like us to consider the possibility that the Chiefs don't make the playoffs at all, which would make for an unprecedented low-point in the Mahomes-Reid era. To dismiss all these concerns today, the Chiefs must find a way to score against a defense that's on pace to be one of the all-time greats.

The 8-2 Denver Broncos' dominant defense is the reason they're leading the AFC West. The Chiefs aren't too far behind in many important categories, though. KC ranks sixth in total yardage allowed per game, and Denver ranks third. The Broncos also rank third in points allowed per game, but the Chiefs are right behind in fourth place league-wide. The biggest difference comes in these teams' abilities to attack opposing quarterbacks.

Denver has 46 sacks, which is a total that only seven teams reached in the entire 2024 regular season and 14 more than any other team this season. Three different Broncos have at least six sacks. Nick Bonitto has 9.5 and a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. So, if the Chiefs are facing a divisional opponent with a Super Bowl-winning coach and a defense that's historically great on paper, why am I not worried?

Bo Nix is the reason. He's an objectively below-average QB at this point. ESPN's QBR thinks he's just normal-bad, while the Passer Rating algorithm thinks he's worse than Justin Fields. That Denver defense is incredible, and they're an eight-win team, and I still don't believe in them at all. I know they can only play the teams on their schedule, but the amount of duds on that schedule makes their record seem like a mirage.

Jalen Hurts' Eagles are the only good team with a good quarterback the Broncos have beaten so far. They played two early-season games against teams with quarterbacks considered good this season - Indy's Daniel Jones and the Chargers' Justin Herbert - and they lost both games. They held a potent Cowboys offense to 24 points and posted 44 on that awful defense in late October. Aside from these four games with capable QBs in which the Broncos went 2-2 and looked flawed, Denver has feasted on mediocrity.
 
They faced Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, Davis Mills (Stroud got hurt after 10 pass attempts) and Geno Smith. They beat the Jets, Giants, Texans and Raiders by nine points combined. The've played more teams that are currently in last place than teams that currently have winning records. That victory over Philly is Denver's only victory against a winning football team.

In a must-win moment, trusting Patrick Mahomes is my nature. Trusting Bo Nix more in that kind of moment is incomprehensible. It may be ugly, it may not impress all the Chiefs' critics, but the Chiefs aren't losing a game this important against a team so accustomed to facing inferior competition. I'm picking the Chiefs to win a tense 20-17 battle.

How Coaching Rookies Affects Revived Chiefs-Broncos Rivalvry

It's hard to tell if the Denver Broncos are legit this season. If they are, the Kansas City Chiefs may have their first real divisional rival in years. The Broncos are 5-4 with their freshly drafted quarterback Bo Nix, who gives those fans more hope than they've had in a decade. Denver also just lost by 31 points and allowed the football equivalent of a perfect game to be thrown by the opposing quarterback. The Broncos' defense looked awesome before last week's 41-10 stinker against Lamar Jackson's Ravens, and despite that, Denver still only has one win against a team with a record above 3-6.

The Broncos defense ranks sixth in passing yards and total yards allowed per game and third overall in points allowed per game. Their offense ranks in the bottom ten in each of those categories. Bo Nix's Week 7 performance against Carolina was the best of his early career, but last week against Baltimore - who allows the most passing yards per game and ninth-most points per game in the NFL - was easily his worst. It's not often you see a week-to-week difference in Passer Rating above 58 points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is apparently a quarterbacks guru, so Nix's response to this unpredictable two weeks of play will reflect Payton's effectiveness in what is supposedly his strong-suit. 

The undefeated Chiefs exhibit their weaknesses every time they take the field while still, ya know, winning all the time. The left tackle position in particular is worryingly inconsistent, which factors heavily into a Patrick Mahomes Passer Rating that ranks 18th league-wide. Whether it's Wanya Morris or rookie Kingsley Suamataia taking the lion's share of snaps at that spot today, every passing week Andy Reid gets to strategize his way around that flaw should further improve the KC offense. Despite being sacked four times last week, Mahomes had his first three-touchdown performance of the season and finished the game with his highest completion percentage of the season. The growth of future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins' role in the offense also looked like it made an immediately positive impact.

This game means the world to a Denver team that's hungry for a signature win. With the enviable burden of an undefeated record, the Chiefs also have immeasurable motivation entering today's game. Despite my far-too-consistent ramblings about Mahomes' statistical mediocrity this season, his numbers on third down, in the red zone and in the fourth quarter all point to a quarterback and a team that refuse to lose. I'll take the safe bet and predict that this won't change today against a Denver team that has proven its ability to lose to teams with flaws far more damaging that Kansas City's. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for our Chiefs - the defending and dominant rulers of the AFC West.

Can KC's Struggling Offense Brutalize Bitter Broncos?

    How would you feel if your boss was fired after a bad performance, then the new boss immediately calls the old boss an inept moron, but then your new boss is just as bad, if not worse, than your old one? Would you feel confident about your new boss's ability to position you for success? Can you see where I'm going with this?

    The Denver Broncos roster must feel completely dejected right now. There is no way Sean Payton makes that clubhouse healthier than your average NFL head coach. Nobody held a gun to Sean Payton's head and told him to talk down to Nathaniel Hackett the way he did. Payton volunteered his opinion that Hackett provided Denver with "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL" last season, but the Broncos are now a worse team with worse morale with Payton as their head coach. Nat Hackett now coordinates the offense for the New York Jets, the team who defeated Payton's Broncos 31-21 last Sunday.

    Revenge is sweet, and sustained success is even sweeter. It seems as if Sean Payton won't enjoy either for a very long time.

    There are positives to find if you look hard enough at Denver's season up to the this point, but they take a second to see. Denver started the season 0-2, but they only lost those games by a combined three points. Patrick Surtain II is still a legitimately great CB, and he'll be facing off with an injured Travis Kelce and a bunch of still-unproven Chiefs receivers. Russ has also improved this season, but he's still nowhere near elite.

    Last year, Wilson tied with Justin Fields for the league lead in sacks taken with 55. Only two QB's that played in more than six games compiled a lower completion percentage last season. He finished with the 10th-most interceptions thrown and the fifth-lowest QBR. Wilson's current QBR is 22nd in the NFL, and his completion percentage is 17th. Five QB's have been sacked more than Russ, and his 11/2 touchdown pass/interception ratio is one of the NFL's best. Still, these numbers indicate that Russ's ceiling is league-average at his position this year.

    KC's offense may not be firing on all cylinders, but the Broncos aren't the team to make the Kingdom fear this flaw. They're the worst defense in the league by a comfortable margin. Denver allows over 45 more total yards and over 4 more points per game than any other team in the league. Isiah Pacheco could have another outstanding game, as the Broncos also allow more than 30 more rushing yards per game than any other NFL team. Breece Hall averaged 8.0 yards per carry last week and finished the day with 177 rushing yards.

    Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes aren't losing to a grumpy Sean Payton four days after Payton got humbled by the very man he publicly insulted. They aren't losing to a Broncos franchise that hasn't beaten them since the Obama administration. They aren't losing to a team that allowed 35 points to Sam Howell's Washington Commanders, 31 to Justin Fields' Chicago Bears, 31 to Zach Wilson's New York Jets and 70 to the only good quarterback/team combo they faced, Tua Tagovailoa's Miami Dolphins. I looked at power rankings from ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and Yahoo Sports, and they all ranked the Chiefs ahead of the Dolphins. KC may not drop 70 on Denver, but they should score enough to ensure victory tonight. I'm predicting a 31-17 win and a bunch of Taylor Swift references from the broadcast crew to get them through garbage time.