The Kansas City Chiefs face off with their third elite opponent in four weeks when they meet the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead this afternoon. Now that the New York Giants brought some balance to the level of competition KC has faced, we can put more weight in the team stats accumulated so far. It's fair to think that only three games is still a small sample size, but 12 quarters is at least a good starting point for statistical analysis. I'm focusing mainly on offense and defense today, but kudos to Matt Araiza for ranking fourth league-wide so far in net punt yard average. Perhaps we'll look more closely at contributions from him and Harrison Butker when we're deeper into the regular season and there's more data to analyze.
KC's defense seems to be making strides more quickly than expected. The Chiefs rank between ninth and 11th in allowed total yards, passing yards, points per game and third-down conversion rate. That's great value for a team who is, according to Spotrac, right at league-average in spending on defense. The young talent in KC's secondary helped limit Giants' #1 receiver Malik Nabers to just two catches on seven targets for 13 yards last Sunday. Success against a receiver as good as Nabers feels huge for a Chiefs defense that will face off with guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin and Baltimore's Zay Flowers.
While KC's defense is over-performing, the Chiefs offense is leaving many football fans around the world scratching their heads. KC's offense ranges from 15th to 18th in rushing yards, passing yards and total yards per game. Those are all disappointing numbers to behold for a Chiefs fan, but KC's third-down conversion rate is a far more alarming change. KC's offense is currently tied for 14th in third-down conversion rate. In their seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a full-time starter, the Chiefs have never ranked below sixth in this category.
It's too early to be too worried about this, but the concern will grow rapidly with each week that things don't improve. Whether it's Travis Kelce looking more like his peak self or the return of KC's missing top two receivers, something needs to change to keep confident about the Chiefs' chances going forward. Clutch third-down conversions are a pillar of this dynasty's foundation. "Mahomes Magic" is a commonly used phrase in this city for a reason. Those seven seasons of Kelce and Mahomes (and Andy Reid's play-calling) dominating the league are more than enough evidence for me to predict a positive change for the Chiefs offense on third down going forward.
While the average 2025 game for KC is a 20-19 victory based on their averages for points scored and allowed, Baltimore is averaging a 37-32 victory. Lamar Jackson's long history of struggling against Mahomes and the Chiefs is the factor that gives KC the edge in this one. Lamar is 1-4 in his five chances to beat Mahomes, and Patrick has thrown for 747 more yards. I wouldn't be shocked if Baltimore wins today, but I'm still predicting a gutsy 26-23 victory for the Chiefs.
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